Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report highlights the innovative approach of the company, Liuliu Guoyuan, focusing on the "Plum+" strategy to expand its product matrix and adapt to changes in products and channels [1][4] - The plum industry shows stable growth in traditional products, while natural jelly is emerging as a strong segment, with Liuliu Guoyuan holding a leading market share of 45.7% in the natural jelly category [4][5] - The company is actively pursuing new product development, with successful launches such as crispy green plums, seedless western plums, plum jelly, and electrolyte smoothies, indicating a high success rate in recent years [4][5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the growth potential in traditional distribution channels for existing products, with the company focusing on deepening market penetration and enhancing terminal services [5] - New products are expected to drive revenue growth, particularly the collaboration with Sam's Club on seedless western plums and the introduction of electrolyte smoothies, which are positioned as new flagship products [5] - The North Exchange market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on companies with technical barriers and order elasticity, indicating a long-term investment strategy in specialized and innovative enterprises [1][7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei, a leading Chinese green plum snack brand, is attempting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to alleviate cash flow pressures, following a failed A-share IPO attempt in 2019, raising discussions about its business model [1] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - Liu Liu Mei gained fame through celebrity endorsement strategies, with sales increasing by 316% over three years due to Yang Mi's endorsement and the "Are you okay?" advertising slogan [2] - In 2024, advertising expenses are projected to reach 106 million yuan, accounting for 72% of net profit, with a sales expense ratio of 19.2%, significantly higher than industry averages [2] - The effectiveness of celebrity marketing is declining, as evidenced by backlash from fans during a live broadcast, highlighting the fragility of traffic dividends [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Liu Liu Mei holds the largest market share in the green plum snack sector, with a 7% market share in 2024, but faces declining prices for core products: dried plums down 10.7% and frozen plums down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - The green plum and western plum snacks combined account for only 1.3% of the 933 billion yuan leisure food industry, with significant competition from giants like Three Squirrels and Good Products Store, which are engaging in price wars and innovative marketing strategies [3] - In 2024, raw material prices for green plums increased by 8.3%, leading to a 7.5 percentage point decline in gross margin to 32.1% due to pricing strategies [3] Group 3: Financial Position - As of February 2025, Liu Liu Mei has only 51.04 million yuan in cash and short-term borrowings of 310 million yuan, prompting a pre-IPO buyback of 135 million yuan in shares from A-round investors [4] - The IPO is viewed as a means of survival rather than expansion, with the company needing to demonstrate a shift from a "traffic-driven" to a "product-driven" model [4] - R&D expenses in 2024 are expected to drop by 43.6%, constituting only 6.1% of sales expenses, significantly below the food industry average of 3%-5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan Group Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, driven by a shift towards bulk snack channels, but faces challenges including declining product prices and significant debt obligations [1][4][6]. Company Performance - Revenue for Liuliu Guoyuan is projected to grow from 11.74 billion yuan in 2022 to 16.16 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit increasing from 0.68 billion yuan to 1.48 billion yuan during the same period [2]. - The company holds a 7.0% market share in China's plum product industry, ranking first by retail sales in 2024 [1][2]. Channel Strategy - The transition from a distribution model to a bulk snack model has resulted in 28.8% of sales coming from major chain snack stores in 2024, with the top two clients suspected to be Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group [2]. - The shift to bulk snacks has led to a significant increase in sales volume but has also resulted in price reductions for key products [3]. Pricing and Cost Challenges - The average selling price of plum snacks has decreased from 39.4 yuan/kg in 2022 to 35.2 yuan/kg in 2024, while the price of plum jelly has dropped from 25.8 yuan/kg to 18.6 yuan/kg [3]. - Raw material costs have increased, with prices for green plums rising by approximately 8.33% and imported plums by 27.78% from 2020 to 2024, contributing to a decline in gross margin from 39.6% in 2022 to 32.1% in 2024 [3]. Capital and Debt Obligations - Beijing Sequoia, an early investor, is exiting the company, requiring repayment of 1.35 billion yuan in principal and 1.26 billion yuan in interest, which is about 85% of the company's projected net profit for 2024 [5][6]. - The company has a cash balance of only 78.04 million yuan as of the end of 2024, insufficient to cover the interest payment, leading to further financing needs [6]. Future Outlook - Liuliu Guoyuan must complete its IPO by December 31, 2025, to avoid potential redemption requests from new investors, which could exacerbate its financial difficulties [6].

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan Group is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, facing challenges such as declining product prices and significant financial obligations due to investor exit [1][9][11] Financial Performance - Revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow from 1.174 billion to 1.616 billion yuan, with net profit increasing from 68 million to 148 million yuan [2] - The company holds a 7% market share in China's plum product industry, ranking first by retail sales [1] Business Model and Market Dynamics - The shift from a distribution model to a bulk snack model has led to 28.8% of sales coming from major chain snack stores in 2024 [4] - The company’s main products, dried plums and plum jelly, have seen price declines despite increased sales volume [5][7] Pricing and Cost Challenges - The average selling price of plum jelly dropped from 25.8 yuan/kg in 2023 to 18.6 yuan/kg in 2024, while the average price of dried plums fell from 39.4 yuan/kg in 2022 to 35.2 yuan/kg in 2024 [5][7] - Raw material costs have increased, with prices for green plums rising by 8.33% and imported plums by 27.78% from 2020 to 2024 [7] Profitability Concerns - The gross margin for dried plums decreased from 39.6% in 2022 to 32.1% in 2024, while the overall gross margin fell from 40.1% in 2023 to 36.0% in 2024 [7] Capital and Investment Issues - Beijing Sequoia, an early investor, exited in 2024, imposing a significant financial burden on the company, including 126 million yuan in interest payments [1][11] - The company must complete its IPO by December 31, 2025, or face potential buyback demands from new investors [11][12] Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of February 2025, the company had only 51.04 million yuan in cash, with interest-bearing bank loans totaling 310 million yuan, indicating a severe cash flow issue [12]

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan is attempting to relaunch its IPO in Hong Kong after a six-year hiatus, driven by cash flow pressures and the need to address significant financial obligations to investors [20][24]. Group 1: Company Background and Market Position - Founded in 2006, Liuliu Guoyuan initially focused on traditional pastries but pivoted to specialize in plum products, capitalizing on a gap in the domestic market for plum snacks [5][6]. - The company has built a "plum empire" with the help of celebrity endorsements, notably from Yang Mi, which significantly boosted its market presence [3][11]. - The current snack market is highly competitive, with rapid innovation and new brands emerging, posing challenges for Liuliu Guoyuan to maintain its market share [4][11]. Group 2: Product Development and Financial Performance - Liuliu Guoyuan has been expanding its product line to mitigate reliance on plum products, which accounted for 87.57% of total revenue in 2018. New products like "plum jelly" have shown strong revenue growth, contributing 25.4% of total revenue by 2024 [5][7][10]. - Despite the introduction of new products, the company remains heavily dependent on plum raw materials, which are vulnerable to climate impacts, leading to rising raw material costs from 41.7% to 47.7% of revenue from 2022 to 2024 [8][10]. - The company's revenue figures show a steady increase, with total revenue projected to rise from 1.174 billion RMB in 2022 to 1.616 billion RMB in 2024 [10][19]. Group 3: Marketing and Brand Strategy - Liuliu Guoyuan has heavily invested in marketing, with sales and distribution expenses exceeding net profits, indicating a potential imbalance between marketing and product development [9][13]. - The company has shifted its marketing strategy to include storytelling and brand building, aiming to create deeper emotional connections with consumers [12][14]. - The reliance on celebrity endorsements for marketing may not be sustainable for long-term brand value, as consumer preferences shift towards product quality [10][14]. Group 4: Financial Challenges and IPO Necessity - The urgency for the IPO is driven by a looming cash flow crisis, exacerbated by a redemption clause from investors requiring a significant payout if the company fails to go public [20][21]. - Liuliu Guoyuan's cash reserves are critically low, with only 51 million RMB available against current liabilities of 958 million RMB, highlighting the financial strain [21][24]. - The upcoming IPO is seen as a crucial opportunity for the company to secure funding and stabilize its financial situation amidst increasing operational challenges [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - Liumei, the parent company of Liumei Fruit Garden, has reinitiated its IPO application after previously withdrawing it in 2019, indicating a strategic shift and growth in financial performance despite challenges in profit margins [1][5]. Financial Performance - Liumei Fruit Garden's projected total revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 1.174 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan, and 1.616 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 68 million yuan, 99 million yuan, and 148 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin has been declining, with raw material costs increasing from 489 million yuan to 771 million yuan, rising from 41.7% to 47.7% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024 [1]. Marketing Strategy - The company heavily relies on celebrity endorsements for marketing, with 71% of net profit allocated to celebrity endorsement expenses in 2024 [2]. - Marketing expenses for sales and distribution were 280 million yuan, 310 million yuan, and 310 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, constituting 24.1%, 23.4%, and 19.2% of total revenue [3]. Channel Transformation - The company is focusing on channel transformation, emphasizing membership stores like Sam's Club and Costco, which have shown significant sales growth [4]. - Direct sales revenue increased from 300 million yuan in 2022 to 957 million yuan in 2024, rising from 25.5% to 59.2% of total revenue, while distribution channel revenue decreased from 874 million yuan to 659 million yuan [4]. Product Matrix Evolution - The product portfolio has diversified beyond just green plums, with dried plum snacks generating 973 million yuan (60.3% of revenue), and other products like western plums and plum jelly contributing significantly to revenue growth [5]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.32% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, with dried plum snacks growing at 9.79%, western plums at 35.5%, and plum jelly at 33.51% [5]. Investment and Future Outlook - In 2024, Liumei Fruit Garden repurchased all shares held by Sequoia Capital, ending a nearly 10-year investment relationship, with the company's valuation increasing from 900 million yuan in 2015 to 2.2 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - The company secured 75 million yuan in external funding from Huashan Fund and Xingnong Fund, with a buyback agreement in place if the IPO is not completed by the end of 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company Liu Liu Guo Yuan is attempting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to expand production capacity and enhance brand recognition, following a previous withdrawal of its A-share listing application in 2019 [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Objectives and Financial Strategy - The IPO proceeds are intended for expanding production capacity for dried plum snacks, plum jelly, and product ingredients, as well as enhancing brand awareness and sales networks [1]. - Liu Liu Guo Yuan faces significant pressure from a "bet" agreement, which could lead to substantial equity redemption and a heavy short-term debt burden if the IPO fails [3][6]. - The company has previously signed agreements to extend the IPO deadline to June and December 2025, but this raises concerns about the potential costs and commitments required to satisfy investors [7][8]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Debt Situation - Liu Liu Guo Yuan's financials show a decline in net cash flow from operating activities, dropping from 2022's 202 million to 84 million in 2024, indicating a liquidity crisis [8]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had total current assets of 936 million, with only 78 million in cash and cash equivalents, while current liabilities reached 1.049 billion, highlighting a significant short-term debt pressure [8]. - The company has a redemption obligation of 260 million to Sequoia Capital, which includes principal and interest payments due in 2024 and 2025 [7]. Group 3: Revenue Growth and Market Position - Liu Liu Guo Yuan has shown revenue growth from 1.174 billion in 2022 to 1.616 billion in 2024, with net profits increasing from 68 million to 148 million during the same period [10]. - The "plum jelly" segment achieved revenue of 410 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32.26%, contributing to 25.4% of total revenue [11]. - Despite the growth, concerns remain about the company's heavy reliance on plum products, which accounted for over 90% of revenue, posing risks related to supply chain vulnerabilities and market demand fluctuations [13][14]. Group 4: Operational Risks and Consumer Feedback - The company has faced food safety issues, with complaints about product quality and safety, indicating a need for improvement in production processes [15][16]. - The shift from a distributor-based sales model to a direct sales model has raised questions about the sustainability of revenue growth, as it may depend more on marketing and expansion rather than genuine consumer demand [17][18]. - The concentration of revenue from a single product category could lead to significant risks if market conditions change or if there are disruptions in supply [14][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the IPO attempt of Liu Liu Guo Yuan (Liu Liu Mei) and highlights its financial performance, market positioning, and the reasons behind its timing for going public [4][5][14]. Financial Performance - Liu Liu Guo Yuan's revenue increased from 873 million RMB in 2018 to 1.616 billion RMB in 2024, with net profit rising from 56 million RMB to 148 million RMB during the same period [4]. - The company achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.32% in revenue from 2022 to 2024, with specific product lines showing significant growth: dried plum snacks at 9.79%, western plum products at 35.5%, and plum jelly at 33.51% [7][8]. Product and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: dried plum snacks contributed 974 million RMB, western plum products 224 million RMB, and plum jelly 410 million RMB [7]. - The sales channels have shifted significantly, with direct sales increasing from 14% of total revenue in 2018 to 59.2% in 2024, while distribution channels decreased from 74.5% to 40.8% [10]. Customer Base and Market Strategy - The top five customers accounted for 33.1% of revenue in 2024, up from 12.7% in 2022, indicating a growing reliance on major retail partners [11]. - The company has strategically aligned itself with rapidly expanding offline snack retail stores, which has contributed to its revenue growth [13][14]. Profitability Metrics - Liu Liu Guo Yuan's gross margin fluctuated from 38.6% in 2022 to 36% in 2024, influenced by the changing customer structure and the pricing strategies of large clients [16][18]. - Net profit margins improved from 5.83% in 2022 to 9.14% in 2024, attributed to economies of scale and reduced operating expenses [19]. Capital Structure and Funding Needs - As of 2024, the company had total assets of 1.671 billion RMB and total liabilities of 1.053 billion RMB, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 63% [21]. - Liu Liu Guo Yuan faces potential liquidity issues due to a low inventory turnover rate of 2.18, significantly below industry averages [22]. - The company is under pressure to secure funding through its IPO to address its capital structure and meet short-term liabilities [27][28]. Market Valuation - The expected compound annual growth rate for the Chinese dried plum snack market is 13.65%, with Liu Liu Guo Yuan projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 21% from 2024 to 2029 [30]. - The estimated valuation for Liu Liu Guo Yuan could reach around 2.768 billion RMB based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7, which is higher than its last funding round valuation of 2.2 billion RMB [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Liuliu Guoyuan Group, the company behind the popular snack product Liuliu Mei, particularly in terms of supply chain management, pricing power, and financial stability as it prepares for its IPO [1][5][21]. Financial Performance - Liuliu Guoyuan's investment return for Sequoia China over nine years was 93%, with an annualized return rate of 7.6%, which is considered low compared to other cases [5]. - The company's gross profit margin has declined from 40.1% in 2023 to 36.0% in 2024, attributed to rising raw material costs [8][16]. - The net profit margin has shown an increase from 5.8% in 2022 to 9.1% in 2024, but this is considered "inflated" due to government subsidies and tax benefits [18][19]. Supply Chain Issues - Liuliu Guoyuan has struggled with supply chain management, failing to stabilize raw material prices, which has led to increased costs and reduced profit margins [6][9]. - The price of Qingmei has risen from 6.31 yuan/kg in 2016 to 8.72 yuan/kg in 2017, impacting the company's profitability [8]. - The company does not own its orchards and relies on market procurement, which has limited its ability to control costs effectively [9]. Pricing Power and Market Dynamics - The company has faced challenges in maintaining pricing power, with significant price drops in its products, such as a 27.91% decrease in the price of Mei Frozen products in 2024 [10][12]. - The revenue from retail partners has surged from 23% in 2023 to 50.6% in 2024, indicating a growing dependency on large clients, which diminishes the company's bargaining power [12][13]. Financial Risks and IPO Pressure - Liuliu Guoyuan is under significant financial pressure, having to repay Sequoia China's investment, which has strained its cash flow [21]. - The company has initiated emergency financing rounds to cover debts, leading to a valuation discount of 9%-10% compared to previous rounds [21]. - The company faces a series of redemption clauses tied to its financing rounds, which could trigger if it fails to complete its IPO by specified deadlines, posing a severe risk to its operational continuity [23].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei is making a second attempt to go public, this time targeting the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a failed attempt in 2019, with significant growth in revenue and profit over the past six years [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2018, Liu Liu Mei's revenue was 873 million RMB with a net profit of 56.03 million RMB. By 2024, revenue has nearly doubled to 1.616 billion RMB, and net profit increased to 148 million RMB, approximately 2.6 times the original [1][2]. - Liu Liu Mei is recognized as the leading brand in the fruit snack segment in China, with a revenue scale that positions it as a mid-to-large company in the snack industry [2][3]. Group 2: Product Line Adjustments - The company has streamlined its product offerings, focusing on three core product lines: traditional dried plums, jelly products represented by plum jelly, and nutrient-rich prune products [6][9]. - The revenue structure in 2024 shows a significant shift: dried plums generated 974 million RMB (60.3%), prunes 223 million RMB (13.8%), and jelly products 410 million RMB (25.4%) [9][11]. Group 3: Jelly Product Line Growth - The jelly product line, introduced in 2019, has become a major revenue contributor, generating over 400 million RMB in 2024, accounting for more than a quarter of total revenue [11][13]. - The jelly product line has shown a remarkable growth trajectory, with revenues increasing from 230 million RMB in 2022 to 410 million RMB in 2024 [14][16]. Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - Liu Liu Mei has established itself as the market leader in the konjac jelly segment in China, benefiting from the health trend and the growing popularity of low-GI snacks [20][21]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with key clients contributing 422 million RMB in revenue in 2024, a substantial increase from 80 million RMB in 2023 [23][24]. Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company is exploring new flavor profiles for its dried plum snacks and aims to leverage the jelly product line as a second growth curve, potentially reaching a revenue level of 1 billion RMB [26]. - Despite the growth in the jelly segment, the overall market for dried plums and prunes remains relatively small, indicating that future growth may heavily rely on the jelly product line [26].