Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The current bond market is heavily influenced by banks, with expectations of gradual recovery as year-end approaches, leading to increased allocation by banks due to easing pressure on indicators [16] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6%-1.65% by year-end, reflecting a potential stabilization in the market [16] - Recent data indicates a significant net repayment of certificates of deposit, with a net financing of -373.2 billion yuan, suggesting a tightening liquidity environment [17][18] Group 2: Biotechnology Sector Analysis - The innovation drug sector is experiencing a resurgence driven by supportive policies and a favorable pricing mechanism, with a focus on global expansion opportunities [10][11] - The China Biotechnology Index, which includes companies involved in gene diagnostics and biopharmaceuticals, is showing strong market liquidity and institutional recognition, indicating a robust investment environment [13] - The projected revenue growth for the innovative drug company is significant, with forecasts of 5.43 billion yuan, 8.62 billion yuan, and 11.42 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [23] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - Current coal prices are primarily driven by real demand, particularly as the heating season begins, leading to increased consumption by power plants [30][31] - The supply constraints and regulatory pressures are expected to keep coal prices on an upward trajectory, with predictions of prices exceeding market expectations by year-end [31] - The focus on high-quality coal and the impact of steel production on coal demand are critical factors influencing market sentiment [32] Group 4: Renewable Energy and AIDC - The demand for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Centers) is projected to increase significantly, with electricity needs expected to grow 2-3 times by 2028, highlighting a critical gap in the current power supply [37] - SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cells) is identified as a leading technology for onsite power solutions, with advantages in deployment speed and power density, making it a key player in the AIDC market [38] - The materials used in SOFC technology are crucial for its performance, with ceramic support structures currently dominating the market, indicating a strong competitive landscape [39]

图：一表看懂溜溜果园 梅 + 战略深化，创新牵引成长 — — 一文拆解溜溜果园招股书 分析师 李梓语 分析师 王玲瑶 研究助理 吴林轩 邮箱：liziyu1@gszq.com 邮箱：wanglingyao@gszq.com 邮箱：wulinxuan@gszq.com 打造极致专业与效率 执业证书编号：S0680524120001 执业证书编号：S0680524060005 执业证书编号：S0680124070006 1.公司介绍：果梅零食领军品牌，产品渠道引领成长 证券研究报告|行业深度 2025 11 21 年 月 日 ——收入增长提速、利润两年翻倍，产品创新发力，新兴渠道扩容 | | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 22-24年CAGR | 25H1 | | 25H1yoy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 财务数据（亿元，%） | | | | | | | | | 营收 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 17 3% . | 9.6 | 24 . | 9% | | | yoy | 12 6% . | 22 2% ...

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Fruit Garden Group Co., Ltd., the parent company of the "Liuliu Mei" brand, is urgently seeking to enter the capital market, having submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the fourth time after previous attempts failed [1][3]. Group 1: Listing Attempts and Financial Pressure - The company has made multiple attempts to go public, including a withdrawal of its A-share application in December 2019 due to revenue decline and short-term profit pressure [2][3]. - A significant buyback obligation arose from a previous investment agreement, leading to a total payment of approximately 261 million yuan, which severely impacted the company's cash flow [3][4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents were only 78.05 million yuan, while interest-bearing bank loans reached 321 million yuan, indicating a deteriorating financial position [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue Growth and Channel Transformation - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving revenues of 1.174 billion yuan in 2022, 1.322 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.616 billion yuan in 2024 [7][8]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 959 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 25%, with net profits rising by 75.4% to 106 million yuan [8]. - The sales channel transformation has been significant, with the share of revenue from traditional distribution channels dropping from 74.5% to 31.2%, while revenue from snack specialty stores surged from 1.1% to 35.3% [8][10]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the company's gross margin has been declining, from 38.6% in 2022 to 34.6% in the first half of 2025 [11][12]. - The gross margin for core products, such as dried plums, has also decreased significantly, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid a shift to lower-margin sales channels [11][12]. - The company faces dual pressures from the D-round financing deadline for listing and declining profitability due to its low-price volume strategy in new sales channels [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Fruit Garden Group Co., Ltd., the parent company of the "Liuliu Mei" brand, is urgently seeking to enter the capital market, having submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the fourth time after previous attempts failed due to various challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Listing Attempts and Financial Pressure - The company has faced significant pressure from a bet agreement with investors, which requires it to go public by the end of 2025 or face substantial financial penalties [2][3]. - Liuliu Fruit Garden's cash flow has been severely impacted by the repayment of 261 million yuan, which includes the original investment and interest, far exceeding the initial investment of 135 million yuan [3][4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents were only 78.05 million yuan, while interest-bearing bank loans reached 321 million yuan, indicating a deteriorating financial position [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue Growth and Channel Transformation - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving 1.174 billion yuan in 2022, 1.322 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.616 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase from 68.43 million yuan in 2022 to 148 million yuan in 2024 [7][8]. - A significant shift in sales channels has occurred, with the revenue share from traditional distribution channels dropping from 74.5% to 31.2%, while revenue from snack specialty stores surged from 1.1% to 35.3% [8][10]. - The company’s reliance on a few major clients has increased, with the top five clients accounting for 43.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025, raising concerns about potential revenue volatility if these relationships change [10]. Group 3: Profitability Challenges - Despite revenue growth, the company's gross margin has been declining, from 38.6% in 2022 to 34.6% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a low-price volume strategy adopted to compete in new sales channels [11][12]. - The gross margin for core products, such as dried plums, has also decreased significantly, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid aggressive pricing strategies [11][12]. - The company faces a critical need to balance expansion and profitability while navigating the pressures from both capital requirements and market competition [13].

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan Group Co., Ltd. is seeking to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange due to pressure from a performance guarantee agreement, which requires the company to complete its IPO by December 31, 2025, or face significant financial penalties [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue from 2022 to 2025 (first half) shows a growth trend: 1.174 billion RMB in 2022, 1.322 billion RMB in 2023, 1.616 billion RMB in 2024, and 959 million RMB in the first half of 2025. Net profit also increased from 68.43 million RMB in 2022 to 106 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [6]. - However, the growth is primarily driven by a strategy of "price for volume," with the average price of dried plum snacks decreasing from 38.1 RMB/kg in 2022 to 32.6 RMB/kg in 2024, slightly recovering to 34.6 RMB/kg in the first half of 2025 [6]. Cash Flow and Debt Situation - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 42.435 million RMB, while bank loans amounted to 399 million RMB, indicating a significant liquidity gap [4]. - The company's current ratio was 0.99 and the quick ratio was only 0.45, highlighting substantial debt repayment pressure [4]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Liuliu Guoyuan has heavily invested in marketing, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 310 million RMB in 2024, including 79.02 million RMB in advertising, which accounted for 25.5% of total sales expenses [7]. - In contrast, R&D spending was only 76.24 million RMB from 2022 to 2024, showing a disparity of over 10 times compared to marketing expenses, and the company has not introduced any new products since the launch of its plum jelly in 2019 [7]. Market Challenges - The company faces significant challenges as it approaches the deadline for its IPO, compounded by previous financial pressures from buyback agreements and a declining profit margin, with gross margins decreasing from 38.6% in 2022 to 34.6% in the first half of 2025 [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Guoyuan is accelerating its efforts to enter the capital market, having recently submitted a new listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a previous application expired. The company faces significant financial pressure due to a buyback agreement with its A-round investor, Sequoia Capital, which was exercised after the company failed to meet its listing timeline [3][4][5]. Financial Challenges - Following the buyback, Liuliu Guoyuan paid a total of approximately 261 million RMB, including 135 million RMB in principal and 126 million RMB in interest, which has strained its cash flow [6][7]. - As of August 2023, the company's interest-bearing bank loans increased to 424 million RMB, while cash and cash equivalents dwindled to 14 million RMB [7]. Investment and Financing - In December 2024, the company secured 75 million RMB in D-round financing from Wuhu Hu'an Fund and Wuhu Xingnong Fund, which also includes a buyback agreement. If the company does not go public by December 31, 2025, investors can demand a buyback [8][9]. Revenue Growth - Liuliu Guoyuan's revenue grew from 1.174 billion RMB in 2022 to 1.616 billion RMB in 2024, with net profit increasing from 68.4 million RMB to 148 million RMB during the same period. In the first half of 2023, revenue and net profit were 959 million RMB and 106 million RMB, respectively [10][11]. Channel Performance - The company has expanded its revenue channels significantly, particularly through supermarket membership stores and snack specialty stores. Revenue from supermarket membership stores rose from 139 million RMB in 2022 to 267 million RMB in 2024, while revenue from snack specialty stores surged from 12.6 million RMB to 550 million RMB in the same period [10][11]. Margin Pressure - Despite revenue growth, the company has faced margin pressure due to strategic pricing decisions aimed at increasing market penetration. The overall gross margin declined from 38.6% to 34.6% during the reporting period, influenced by rising raw material costs and competitive pricing strategies [12][13]. Long-term Considerations - The shift away from traditional distribution channels towards lower-margin emerging channels raises concerns about the company's long-term growth stability, especially if competition intensifies or partnership conditions change [14].

Core Viewpoint - Liuliu Fruit Garden Group Co., Ltd. is eager to enter the capital market, having submitted a new listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after a previous application expired. The company is under pressure to meet a deadline set by investors for an IPO [1][6]. Financial Performance - Liuliu Fruit Garden has shown steady revenue growth, with revenues of 1.174 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan, and 1.616 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, and a revenue of 959 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 25% [3][4]. - Net profits for the same periods were 68.43 million yuan, 99.23 million yuan, and 148 million yuan, with a net profit of 106 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.4% [3][4]. Gross Margin Trends - Despite revenue growth, the company's gross margin has declined from 38.6% in 2022 to 36% in 2024, and further down to 34.6% in the first half of 2025. The gross margins for core products, such as dried plums and western plums, have also decreased significantly [4]. - The gross margin for dried plums fell from 39.6% in 2022 to 32.9% in the first half of 2025, while western plums dropped from 36.7% to 30.7% in the same period. In contrast, the gross margin for plum jelly increased from 36.2% to 40.9% [4]. Sales Channel Shift - The company has shifted its sales channels towards snack specialty stores, with the revenue share from these stores rising from 1.1% to 35.3% between 2022 and the first half of 2025. Conversely, the revenue share from traditional distribution channels decreased from 74.5% to 31.2% [4]. Customer Concentration - The concentration of customers has increased, with the top five customers accounting for 43.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025, up from 12.7% in 2022. This high dependency on a few major clients poses potential risks to the company's revenue stability [5]. Investment Pressure - The urgency for the IPO is linked to a bet agreement with investors, which requires the company to go public or face significant financial penalties. The company has faced challenges in its previous attempts to list, including a withdrawal of its A-share application in 2019 due to revenue decline and short-term profit pressures [6][7]. Financial Strain - The company has experienced cash flow issues due to the substantial buyback payments required under the investment agreement, leading to a decrease in cash and cash equivalents from 78.05 million yuan at the end of 2024 to 42.43 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The leading plum snack company, Liuliu Guoyuan Group Co., Ltd., has submitted a new listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previous attempts failed, driven by a looming deadline related to a share repurchase agreement with investors [3][12]. Group 1: Company Overview - Liuliu Guoyuan specializes in the research, production, and sales of unique fruit snacks, primarily focusing on products made from green plums [4]. - The company has launched three main product categories: dried plum snacks, western plum products, and plum jelly, among others [4]. Group 2: Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2024, Liuliu Guoyuan ranked first in the Chinese fruit snack industry with a market share of 4.9%, and also led in the natural jelly and plum product sectors with market shares of 45.7% and 7.0%, respectively [5]. - The company has maintained its top position in the green plum and western plum snack sectors for four consecutive years from 2021 to 2024 [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The total revenue for Liuliu Guoyuan from 2022 to 2025 (up to June 30) was reported as follows: 1.174 billion, 1.322 billion, 1.616 billion, and 759 million RMB, respectively [7]. - The net profit figures for the same periods were 68.4 million, 99.2 million, 148 million, 60.2 million, and 106 million RMB, indicating effective cost management and economies of scale [7]. Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Despite strong revenue growth, the company faces challenges such as high debt levels, reliance on a single product line (dried plum snacks contributing over 60% of revenue), and insufficient R&D investment [9][10]. - In 2024, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of only 84.37 million RMB, with short-term borrowings amounting to 312 million RMB, indicating significant repayment pressure [9][10]. Group 5: Investment and Financing - Since 2015, Liuliu Guoyuan has undergone four rounds of financing, with investors increasingly exiting due to halted IPO processes [12]. - A D-round financing of 75 million RMB was completed in December 2024, with a stipulation that if the company does not go public by December 31, 2025, investors can demand a share buyback at a price including a 6% annual simple interest [12].

Core Viewpoint - Liumiu Guoyuan Group Co., Ltd., a leading dried plum snack company, has submitted a new application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previous attempts failed, highlighting the urgency due to an impending buyback agreement deadline with investors [1][2][6][14]. Company Overview - Founded in 1999 by Yang Fan, Liumiu Guoyuan specializes in plum-based snacks and has developed three main product categories: dried plum snacks, western plum products, and plum jelly [2]. - The company has a significant market presence, ranking first in the Chinese fruit snack industry with a market share of 4.9% and leading in the natural jelly and plum product sectors with shares of 45.7% and 7.0%, respectively [8]. Financial Performance - Liumiu Guoyuan reported total revenues of approximately 1.174 billion RMB, 1.322 billion RMB, 1.616 billion RMB, and 959 million RMB for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [10]. - The company’s net profits for the same periods were 68.43 million RMB, 99.23 million RMB, 148 million RMB, and 106 million RMB [10]. - In 2024, the company’s revenue was heavily reliant on dried plum snacks, which accounted for 60.3% of total revenue, while plum jelly contributed 25.4% [10]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of 2024, Liumiu Guoyuan faced significant debt, with short-term borrowings amounting to 312 million RMB and cash reserves of only 78 million RMB [11]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 84.37 million RMB in 2024, a decrease of over 40 million RMB year-on-year [11]. Investment and Buyback Agreement - The company has entered into a buyback agreement with new investors from its D-round financing, which stipulates that if the company fails to go public by the end of 2025, the controlling shareholder must repurchase shares at a price that includes the principal plus 6% annual simple interest [6][15]. Challenges and Market Position - Despite strong revenue growth, Liumiu Guoyuan has faced challenges such as high debt levels, reliance on a single product category, and insufficient investment in research and development [10][11][13]. - The company’s sales and distribution expenses have increased significantly, totaling 902 million RMB over three years, while R&D expenditures were notably lower at under 80 million RMB for the same period [13].

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Guo Yuan Group, a leading dried plum snack company, has submitted a new IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after previous attempts failed, highlighting the urgency due to an impending buyback agreement deadline with investors [1][2][6][15]. Company Overview - Liu Liu Guo Yuan was founded in 1999 and specializes in plum-based snacks, with three main product categories: dried plums, western plums, and plum jelly. Dried plums account for 60.3% of the company's revenue in 2024 [2][8]. - The company has attempted to go public multiple times, including a failed application in 2019 and another that expired in 2025 [2][10]. Financial Performance - Liu Liu Guo Yuan reported total revenues of 11.74 billion RMB, 13.22 billion RMB, 16.16 billion RMB, and 9.59 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [9][12]. - The net profit figures for the same periods were 68.43 million RMB, 99.23 million RMB, 148 million RMB, and 106 million RMB [9][12]. - The company holds the top market share in various categories, including 4.9% in the fruit snack sector and 45.7% in the natural jelly sector [8]. Challenges and Risks - Liu Liu Guo Yuan faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, reliance on a single product category (dried plums), and insufficient R&D investment. The company’s net cash flow from operating activities was only 84.37 million RMB in 2024, with short-term borrowings reaching 3.12 billion RMB [10][12]. - The company’s net profit in 2024 included 33.8 million RMB in government subsidies, which constituted 22.8% of the total, indicating potential vulnerability in core profitability [12]. Investment and Financing - The company has undergone four rounds of financing since 2015, with investors increasingly withdrawing due to halted IPO processes. A buyback agreement with new investors stipulates that if the company does not go public by December 31, 2025, the founder must repurchase shares at a price including a 6% annual interest [14][15]. - The urgency of the IPO is underscored by the approaching deadline for the buyback agreement, which adds pressure on the company to achieve a successful listing [15].