Core Viewpoint - Guoquan Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Guoquan (02517), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its franchise model and supply chain efficiency improvements [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - Expected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 7.33 billion, 8.44 billion, and 9.59 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 13.3%, 15.1%, and 13.6% respectively [1] - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 410 million, 490 million, and 560 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 78.9%, 19.4%, and 13.7% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.15, 0.18, and 0.20 yuan, with a target price range of 4.03 to 4.51 HKD [1] Group 2: Business Model and Operations - The company has established a "single product single factory" model, with 7 self-built factories covering categories such as condiments and seafood, achieving a production capacity of 25,000 tons in 2022 [1] - In 2024, the acquisition of Huading Cold Chain will enhance the national cold chain network, covering 290 cities [1] - The company is focused on refined operations and improving multi-store franchisee performance, with stores widely distributed in lower-tier cities [1] Group 3: Market Expansion and Efficiency - Based on population density calculations, the total number of stores is expected to reach 19,000, with growth primarily from lower-tier markets [2] - Single-store efficiency is improving, with revenue recovery driven by popular products like the free-choice tripe set, and the unmanned retail model has been implemented in 2,000 stores to extend operating hours [2] - Capital expenditure has decreased from 250 million yuan in 2022 to 150 million yuan in 2024, with scale effects expected to reduce costs and improve net profit margins [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, is a leading brand in the home dining food product sector in China, with over 10,150 stores as of 2024, and a revenue forecast of 6.47 billion yuan for the same year, with 84% of revenue coming from franchisees [1][4]. - The home dining market in China has grown significantly, with a CAGR of approximately 14.7% from 2018 to 2022, and the segment for food products has seen even faster growth at 25.5% [1][34]. - Guoquan's business model includes a deep integration of the supply chain and a focus on optimizing its commercial model, which is expected to enhance profitability [2][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guoquan is positioned as a leading brand in home dining food products, offering a variety of ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook ingredients across eight categories [12][14]. - The company has established a nationwide franchise network, achieving a store count of 10,150 by the end of 2024 [1][26]. Industry Analysis - The home dining market in China has expanded from 32.48 trillion yuan in 2018 to 56.16 trillion yuan in 2022, with projections to reach 71.09 trillion yuan by 2027 [34]. - The competitive landscape is highly fragmented, with Guoquan holding a market share of approximately 3.0%, leading the industry [39]. Core Advantages - Guoquan employs a "single product, single factory" model, operating seven factories to cover various product categories, which enhances its supply chain efficiency [2][55]. - The company has established a robust network of over 300 suppliers, ensuring a comprehensive supply chain and optimizing production costs [55][56]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its store count to 20,000, primarily targeting lower-tier cities, with a projected revenue growth of 13.3% to 95.9 billion yuan by 2027 [2][3]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit margins projected to rise as operational efficiencies are realized [3][27].

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by supply chain efficiency, effective pricing strategies, and an increase in self-sourcing [1][2]. Revenue Growth Drivers - Same-store sales are projected to increase due to the introduction of new meal packages that boost sales during off-peak seasons, with an expected mid-high single-digit growth in same-store sales [1][2]. - The company is on track to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, with a steady expansion plan and successful new store signings [2]. - The 2B revenue segment is anticipated to grow rapidly, contributing to overall revenue growth as production capacity is released [2]. Profitability and Margin Improvement - The core operating profit is expected to rise to between 180-210 million yuan, with a projected increase in core operating profit margin exceeding 1 percentage point compared to the previous year [2]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to a higher proportion of self-sourcing and the release of scale effects on the cost side [2]. Strategic Focus and Growth Potential - The company is committed to its "community central kitchen" strategy, expanding its food solutions across various scenarios, including home-cooked meals and late-night snacks [3]. - The focus on high-cost performance products and the development of new store models are expected to enhance customer acquisition and improve store efficiency [3]. - The company aims to cover all meal scenarios throughout the day, providing long-term growth momentum [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 14.1%, 23.8%, and 39.7% to 410 million, 530 million, and 680 million yuan respectively [3]. - The target price has been increased by 79.2% to 4.3 HKD, reflecting a clear turning point in profitability and solidifying supply chain barriers [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.30 [1][2][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 180-210 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 111-146% [1][6] - The significant profit growth is attributed to improved supply chain efficiency and effective pricing strategies, which have enhanced store performance and accelerated store expansion [6][7] - The company aims to open 1,000 new stores in 2025, supported by a successful new store signing process [7][9] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2025E: RMB 7,246 million (up 12% from 2024) - 2026E: RMB 8,355 million (up 15.3% from 2025) - 2027E: RMB 9,608 million (up 15% from 2026) [5][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2025E: RMB 398.41 million (up 72.8% from 2024) - 2026E: RMB 517.09 million (up 29.79% from 2025) - 2027E: RMB 661.81 million (up 27.99% from 2026) [5][10] - The report anticipates an increase in the company's core operating profit margin, expected to exceed 1 percentage point compared to the same period last year [8][10] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on a "community central kitchen" strategy, expanding its product offerings to include home-cooked meals and various dining solutions [9][10] - The introduction of high-value meal packages and the enhancement of store operations through self-sourcing and cost efficiencies are key components of the growth strategy [6][9] - The company is also leveraging its supply chain advantages to create high-cost performance products and enhance customer engagement through innovative retail formats [9][10]