长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 汪静 宠物口粮"麦富迪"母公司乖宝宠物（301498.SZ）业绩稳定增长。 8月25日晚间，乖宝宠物发布2025年半年度报告，公司上半年实现营业收入32.21亿元，同比增长 32.72%；净利润3.78亿元，同比增长22.55%。 当晚，乖宝宠物还发布第二期限制性股票激励计划（草案），其中，2025年度的业绩考核目标为，以 2024年为基数，营业收入增长率不低于25%、净利润增长率不低于16%。也就是说，2025年度，公司的 营业收入、净利润分别要达到65.56亿元、7.25亿元。 长江商报记者粗略计算，目前，乖宝宠物2025年度的营收目标完成率达49.13%，净利润目标完成率达 52.14%。 乖宝宠物业绩增长主要由于自主品牌持续增长。根据Euromonitor，2015—2024年公司主力品牌麦富迪 的国内市占率从2.4%提升至6.2%，位列国产品牌市占率第一。 营收净利连增五年半 财报显示，2025年上半年，乖宝宠物实现营业收入32.21亿元，同比增长32.72%；净利润3.78亿元，同 比增长22.55%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额3.5亿元，同比大增42.97%。 半年 ...

上 市 公 司 农林牧渔 2025 年 08 月 26 日 乖宝宠物 (301498) ——自有品牌提速带动营收高增 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 95.73 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 125.88/42.37 | | 市净率 | 8.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.52 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 17,138 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,868.38/12,473.17 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.11 | | 资产负债率% | 14.94 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 400/179 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06 ...

盈利预测与投资评级：公司宠物食品生产、制造、研发优势领先，伴随国内宠物经济红利延续，公司头 部效应持续释放，自主品牌新业务有望加速放量，龙头地位持续夯实，市场份额加速扩张。我们预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为7.6/9.6/12.8 亿元，对应PE 分别为51X/40X/30X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：国内市场竞争加剧，原材料价格、汇率波动，海外市场拓展不利，贸易摩擦等风险。 公司发布2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年，公司实现营收32.21 亿元，同比增长32.72%，实现归母净利 润3.78 亿元，同比增长22.55%。其中，单二季度公司实现营收17.41 亿元，同比增长30.99%，实现归属 净利润1.74 亿元，同比增长8.54%。 2025 年上半年收入同比+32.72%，主要系境内自有品牌业务增长所致；1）从品类看，公司2025 年上半 年主粮18.83 亿元，同比+57.09%，占比58.69%（（+9.3pcts），零食业务收入12.94 亿元，同比 +8.34%。2）直销渠道销售情况看，核心平台直销收入增速仍较快，第三方平台（阿里系、抖音平台、 京东、拼多多等）20 ...

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 国内自主品牌持续高增，高端品牌战略持续深化 公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年，公司实现营收 32.21 亿元， 同比增长 32.72%，实现归母净利润 3.78 亿元，同比增长 22.55%。其中， 单二季度公司实现营收 17.41 亿元，同比增长 30.99%，实现归属净利润 1.74 亿元，同比增长 8.54%。 2025 年上半年收入同比+32.72%，主要系境内自有品牌业务增长所致； 1）从品类看，公司 2025 年上半年主粮 18.83 亿元，同比+57.09%，占比 58.69%（（+9.3pcts），零食业务收入 12.94 亿元，同比+8.34%。2）直销 渠道销售情况看，核心平台直销收入增速仍较快，第三方平台（阿里系、 抖音平台、京东、拼多多等）2025 年上半年收入 12.1 亿元，占比 37.73%， 同增 39.72%；其中阿里系/抖音平台收入 8.85 亿元，占比 27.58%，同比 增长 45.85%。3）费用端看，销售费用率为 21.12%（（ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 113 CNY per share [1][9]. Core Insights - The company has implemented a second phase of its restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term incentive mechanism and motivate its core team, granting up to 556,000 shares at a price of 47.55 CNY per share [8][11]. - The revenue growth targets for the second phase of the incentive plan are set at 25%, 53%, and 84% for the years 2025 to 2027 compared to 2024, while net profit growth targets are 16%, 32%, and 45% respectively [11]. - The company is expected to increase market investment to enhance brand awareness and accelerate revenue growth, which may lead to higher expenses [11]. - The company has shown strong performance during promotional events, ranking high in various e-commerce platforms, indicating a solid market position [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 776 million, 932 million, and 1.158 billion CNY respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 20%, and 24.2% [11][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.94 CNY, 2.33 CNY, and 2.90 CNY for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 48, 40, and 32 [11][13]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 6.591 billion CNY in 2025 to 9.713 billion CNY by 2027, with a significant increase in operating profit as well [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and market leadership of Guibao Pet, a Chinese pet food company, which has become a significant player in the domestic pet food industry, particularly through its brand Maifudi, achieving substantial sales and market presence during the 618 shopping festival. Company Overview - Guibao Pet's stock price reached 107.55 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 430 billion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [3] - The founder, Qin Hua, transitioned from being a middle school physics teacher to a successful entrepreneur, amassing a fortune in the high-end pet food sector [4][5] - Qin Hua holds about 53.24% of the company's shares, valued at approximately 230 billion yuan based on the latest market capitalization [5] Market Potential - According to Goldman Sachs, the number of pets in urban China is expected to exceed 70 million by 2030, indicating a growing market for pet-related products [6] - The pet consumption market is projected to grow by 7.5% in 2024, surpassing 300 billion yuan, with pet food being a significant segment [6][7] Product Offerings - Guibao Pet offers over 1,300 products across three main categories: pet snacks, wet food, and dry food, focusing on high-quality ingredients [7] - The company has achieved a gross margin of 42.27%, which is higher than many competitors in the industry [10] Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has significantly increased its sales expenses from 167 million yuan in 2018 to 1.055 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 35% [11] - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin contributed 37.72% of Guibao's revenue in 2024, showcasing the effectiveness of its digital marketing strategies [11] Recent Developments - Guibao Pet's stock has seen multiple shareholder sell-offs, with the second-largest shareholder reducing their stake by 3%, generating a profit of 1.08 billion yuan [15][16] - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new factory in Thailand, which is expected to double its output and enhance its competitive edge [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the pet economy sector in A-shares, particularly since April 8, has seen significant stock price increases, with some companies experiencing over 200% growth since last September, indicating a strong market interest in this segment [1][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The pet economy sector index has risen nearly 40% since April 8, and has doubled since last September [1]. - Major companies like Zhongchong Co. and Lusi Co. have seen stock prices soar over 200%, while Guibao Biological has increased by over 110% [1]. - Following this surge, the sector experienced a correction starting May 21, with companies like Tianyuan Pet and Lusi Co. dropping over 20% [3]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The pet industry has shown strong fundamentals, with Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. projected to have compound annual revenue growth rates of 27% and 18.9% respectively from 2020 to 2024 [4]. - In Q1 2025, Guibao Biological reported a revenue increase of over 34% and a profit increase of 62%, while Zhongchong Co. saw a 25% revenue increase and a 62% profit increase [4]. - The overall high profitability of the pet industry has been a key factor in the recent market rally [5]. Group 3: Profitability Analysis - As of Q1 2025, Guibao Pet's gross margin stands at 41.6%, significantly higher than Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co. at 32% and 28.6% respectively [6]. - Guibao Pet has successfully reduced its reliance on OEM business, with its own brand sales increasing, allowing it to capture a higher market share in the mid-to-high-end segment [6]. - In contrast, Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. have lower gross margins below 20%, indicating weaker competitive positioning [7]. Group 4: Market Trends - The pet consumption market in urban China is expected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 7.5% growth from 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 20% from 2012 to 2024 [11]. - The number of pets in China is projected to grow, with pet cats and dogs reaching 71.53 million and 52.58 million respectively in 2024 [13]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards domestic brands, with Guibao's market share increasing from around 2% to 6% between 2014 and 2023, while foreign brands like Mars and Nestle have seen their market shares decline [14][15]. Group 5: Pricing Dynamics - The average annual consumption per pet is projected to grow at a compound rate of 6.74% from 2017 to 2024, with pet dogs expected to see a 3% increase in spending per pet in 2024 [16]. - Guibao Pet's product pricing has increased, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% in pet food prices from 2020 to 2023 [16]. - The trend indicates a potential for simultaneous growth in both volume and price within the pet industry, which is relatively rare in the current economic climate [17]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite recent price surges leading to high valuations, the underlying growth logic for the pet sector remains intact, with expectations for a potential market rebound post-July as tariff issues clarify [19]. - The market is likely to favor companies with strong performance and profitability, distinguishing them from those that have recently experienced inflated valuations without solid fundamentals [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - The company's high-end strategy has shown significant results, with continuous improvement in profitability [1] - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.22%, and a net profit of 624.72 million yuan, up 45.68% year-on-year [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.82%, with a net profit of 2.04 million yuan, up 37.68% year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for main revenue (in million yuan) is as follows: - 2024: 5,244.96 - 2025: 6,377.13 - 2026: 7,781.69 - 2027: 9,414.97 - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 21.22% for 2024, 21.59% for 2025, 22.03% for 2026, and 20.99% for 2027 [3][7] - The forecast for net profit (in million yuan) is: - 2024: 624.72 - 2025: 806.48 - 2026: 1,013.32 - 2027: 1,232.31 - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be 45.68% for 2024, 29.09% for 2025, 25.65% for 2026, and 21.61% for 2027 [3][7] Product and Channel Performance - The company has seen a continuous increase in the proportion of its main products, with self-owned brand revenue reaching 3.545 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.1% [6] - The direct sales revenue grew by 59.3% year-on-year, accounting for 37.5% of total revenue [6] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with significant sales growth during major shopping events [6] Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin improved to 42.27% in 2024, up 5.43 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are: - 2024: 1.56 - 2025: 2.02 - 2026: 2.53 - 2027: 3.08 - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 72.80 for 2024, 56.39 for 2025, 44.88 for 2026, and 36.91 for 2027 [3][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated impressive growth in its financial performance, with a strong focus on high-end brand development and a positive outlook for the pet food industry in China [1][2][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 625 million yuan, up 45.68% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, a growth of 34.82%, and a net profit of 204 million yuan, increasing by 37.68% [2]. - The direct sales revenue in 2024 showed significant growth, with pet food and supplies generating 5.220 billion yuan, a 21.11% increase [3]. Product and Sales Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from snacks, staple food, health products, and other businesses was 2.484 billion yuan, 2.690 billion yuan, 46 million yuan, and 25 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.66%, 28.88%, -18.90%, and 49.41% [3]. - Domestic and international revenues were 3.551 billion yuan and 1.693 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 24.03% and 15.70% [3]. - The company’s self-owned brand revenue increased by 29.14% to 3.545 billion yuan, while OEM and ODM revenue grew by 19.07% [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.27%, an increase of 5.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 11.96% [4]. - The sales expense ratio increased to 20.11% in 2024, attributed to the growth in self-owned brand and direct sales revenue [4]. Brand Development - The company has successfully advanced its high-end brand strategy, with its main brand, Mai Fu Di, leading the industry and achieving a 150% increase in sales during the 2024 Double 11 shopping festival [5]. - The introduction of new high-end products, such as the "0 Pressure Fresh Meat Cat Food" series, has also contributed to its market leadership [5]. Industry Outlook - The pet food industry in China is still in its early stages, with pet food penetration rates for dogs and cats at 25% and 43%, respectively, indicating significant growth potential [6]. - The high-end pet food market share in China is currently low, with only 29.4% for cat food and 33.4% for dog food, compared to much higher rates in the US and Japan [6]. Investment Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.405 billion yuan, 7.929 billion yuan, and 9.957 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 800 million yuan, 1.009 billion yuan, and 1.272 billion yuan [7]. - The company has been given an "Accumulate" rating based on its strong brand development and the growth potential in the pet food industry [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid growth in its proprietary brand, leading the rise of domestic products in the pet food industry [8] - The company is a leading player in the domestic pet food market, benefiting from strong brand power, product strength, R&D capabilities, and channel advantages [8] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards, reflecting strong growth momentum in domestic brands [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 5.245 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.22% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 624.72 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.68% [8] - The company's gross margin reached 42.3% in 2024, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 11.9%, up by 2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Business Segment Analysis - In 2024, revenue from proprietary brands and OEMs is expected to be 3.5 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29% and 19% [8] - The main product categories, staple food and snacks, are projected to generate revenues of 2.7 billion yuan and 2.5 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 29% and 15% [8] - Domestic and international revenues are expected to be 3.6 billion yuan and 1.7 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 24% and 16% [8] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 819 million yuan for 2025 and 1.017 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 49 and 39.86 [8] - The net profit for 2027 is projected at 1.242 billion yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32.65 [8]