沪银2606
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申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20251021
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 02:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold has become the dominant long - term narrative as the ultimate safe - haven asset, with its rising speed and intensity increasing due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, global confrontation, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. Silver's spot supply - demand contradiction is further highlighted, but after a rapid rise, there may be adjustments and increased volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures, the prices of沪金2606,沪金2512,沪银2606, and沪银2512 all increased, with涨跌幅 of 2.86%, 2.91%, 1.93%, and 1.97% respectively. In the现货 market, the prices of London gold and London silver increased, while the prices of Shanghai gold T + D and Shanghai silver T + D decreased [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The持仓量 of沪金2606 is 22,015, and that of沪金2512 is 207,916; the持仓量 of沪银2606 is 27,319, and that of沪银2512 is 432,663. The成交量 of沪金2606 is 15,617, and that of沪金2512 is 728,228; the成交量 of沪银2606 is 33,301, and that of沪银2512 is 2,455,760 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The现货升贴水 of沪金2606 is - 31.30, that of沪金2512 is - 24.88, that of沪银2606 is - 238.00, and that of沪银2512 is - 194.00 [2]. Inventory - The上期所 gold inventory remains unchanged at 84,606 kg, while the上期所 silver inventory decreased by 64,253.00 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 75,206.36, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,991,703 [2]. Related Market Indicators - The美元指数 increased by 0.07%, the标准普尔指数 increased by 1.07%, the美债 yield decreased by 0.50%, the布伦特原油 price decreased by 0.01%, and the美元兑人民币 exchange rate decreased by 0.04% [2]. Derivatives - The spdr gold ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the SLV白银ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the CFTC投机者净持仓 of silver increased by 481, and the CFTC投机者净持仓 of gold decreased by 1,451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US and China are about to return to the negotiation table. The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as issues to be raised with China. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [3]. - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months, with an estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [3]. - The White House National Economic Council Director said that the government shutdown may end this week, and if not, stronger measures may be taken [3].
申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20251016
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 02:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold continues to strengthen, with international gold prices surpassing $4,200 per ounce. The Fed Chair hinted at a pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade - war concerns are intensifying, and bets on two interest rate cuts this year are growing stronger. The U.S. government shutdown is ongoing, and the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt situation are deteriorating. Against this backdrop, central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings, and investors' recognition of gold as a safe - haven and value - storing asset is rising. However, after a rapid rise, there are accumulated profitable positions, so be aware of possible adjustments and increased volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Market**: - For gold futures, the prices of沪金2606 and沪金2512 are 969.60 and 962.08 respectively, with daily increases of 1.86 and 1.74, and increases of 0.19% and 0.18%. Their trading volumes are 6,880 and 420,246, and open interests are 22,325 and 230,686. - For silver futures, the prices of沪银2606 and沪银2512 are 12,201.00 and 12,138.00 respectively, with daily increases of 171.00 and 172.00, and increases of 1.42% and 1.44%. Their trading volumes are 31,945 and 2,033,514, and open interests are 19,602 and 477,807 [2]. - **Spot Market**: - The price of Shanghai Gold T + D has increased by 18.55 to 958.5, with a rise of 1.97%. London gold (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 13.55 to 964.00, with a rise of 1.43%. - The price of Shanghai Silver T + D has increased by 431.00 to 11,961.00, with a rise of 3.74%. London silver (in dollars per ounce) has increased by 1.64 to 53.05, with a rise of 3.19% [2]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold has increased by 2,916.00 kilograms to 75,099 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has decreased by 32,643.00 kilograms to 1,030,429 kilograms. - COMEX gold inventory has decreased by 375,461.09 to 39,285,219, and COMEX silver inventory has decreased by 2,921,026 to 512,711,524 [2]. - **Related Derivatives and Indexes**: - The dollar index has decreased by 0.38% to 98.6659, the S&P index has increased by 0.40% to 6,671.06, the U.S. Treasury yield has increased by 0.50% to 4.05, and Brent crude oil has increased by 0.01% to 62.47. The U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan has decreased by 0.14% to 7.1301. - The spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF holdings have both increased by 1.00 tons to 44,315 tons. The CFTC speculator net long position in silver has increased by 486 to 33,486, while that in gold has decreased by 1,451 to 32,895 [2]. Macro News - The U.S. side said that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to correct its wrong actions and resolve issues through dialogue. China opposes the EU's forced technology - transfer practices. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending and stable employment levels. - The U.S. Senate failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill. The U.S. government may cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown. The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit Fed leadership candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [3]. Fed Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Stephen Milan said that due to increased trade tensions, policymakers need to cut interest rates soon. He expects two interest rate cuts this year. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose 19.4 points to 10.7 in October, far exceeding market expectations, and the outlook index reached its highest level since the beginning of the year [4].