021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月29日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2605 | 172 ...

-23,716 前20期商动态：净持仓较上日减少4200手 12月25日，烧碱前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓16.57万手，空单持仓18.94万手，多空比 0.87。净持仓为-2.37万手，相较上日减少4200手。 据统计，近两年价格和净持仓数据的相关系数为0.68，两者存在中度正相关关系(同向性)。 数据时间2025-12-25 烧碱指数收盘价 2241.7 净持仓 烧碱主力合约机构动向： 从净多头持仓排行来看，东方财富期货以4231手净多排行榜首，日内净多头头寸增加512手，该公司品种 主力合约近一年盈利为-31,719.27万元。 净空排行方面，东证期货以9976手拔得头筹，日内净空头头寸增加2226手，该公司品种主力合约近一年盈 利为15,004.49万元。 分类 会员持仓 净持仓 净持仓增减 近一年盈利（万） | 净多 | 东方财富期货 | 4,231 | 512 | -31,719.27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 前三 | 银河期货 | 3,204 | 74 | 697.79 | | | 中泰期货 | 2,848 | 75 | -24,27 ...

消息面 截止到2025年12月25日，本周国内纯碱厂家总库存143.85万吨，较周一下降6.19万吨，跌幅4.13%。其中，轻质纯碱73.55万吨，环比增加0.63万 吨，重质纯碱70.30万吨，环比下降6.82万吨。较上周四下降6.08万吨，跌幅4.06%。 12月25日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格下降，轻质纯碱报价出厂1350-1370元/吨；江苏井神化工纯碱装置恢复，价格稳定，轻质报价 出厂1300元/吨。 12月24日，纯碱前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓75.73万手，空单持仓93.11万手，多空比0.81。净持仓为-17.38万手，相较上日增加7780 手。 正信期货： 短期商品情绪尚可，但纯碱基本面变化有限，短期区间震荡为主，在供大于求格局未有明显改善下，中期趋势仍以逢反弹偏空思路对待。 机构观点 财信期货： 重碱需求受浮法玻璃产量下降拖累，光伏玻璃难放量，全年需求增速或为小幅负增长状态。受益于碳酸锂产能扩张及出口改善，轻碱需求有望继 续增长。但由于纯碱产能基数庞大，氨碱产能成本线将不断受到冲击，价格上涨的驱动将主要来自于供应端的被动减产。观点：纯碱主力合约震 荡区间或在110 ...

国泰君安、一德期货同步加仓，分别增持 4097 手、4115 手，多头持仓分别达 96472 手、9058 手，头部 席位的协同增仓大幅提升了多头阵营的凝聚力，不过，国泰君安同步增持空单3105手，其净多持仓单日 仅增加992手。 只有持买单量上榜的中财期货、南华期货、东海期货、申银万国期货等席位分别增持761手、1331手、 981手和927手，多头整体增仓的一致性较强。 | | | 多头持仓量龙虎榜 | | | | | 空头持仓量龙虎榜 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 会员号 | 会员名 | 多消费 | 揭耀 | 会员号 | 会员名 | 空头持仓 | 揭成 | | 1 | 16 | 国泰君安 | 96472 | 4097 | 16 | 国泰君安 | 73522 | 3105 | | 2 | 3 | 乐证期货 | 50079 | 1616 | ਰੇ | 广发期货 | 64116 | 326 | | 3 | 11 | 中信建投 | 36501 | 910 | 8 | 中信期货 | 63491 | 3597 | | ...

其中，WTI原油净多头头寸增加18,061手合约。 | | | | Weekly | Weekly | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agricultur Nov. 4 | | Oct. 28 | Net Chg | % Chg | | Corn | -71,516 | -89,506 | 17,990 | 20.10% | | Soybeans | 178,683 | 118,489 | 60,194 | 50.80% | | Soybean ( | -21,258 | 1,555 | -22,813 | n/a | | Soybean N | 13,039 | -45,751 | 58,790 | n/a | | Wheat CB | -70,613 | -75,133 | 4,520 | 6.00% | | Wheat KC | -42,454 | -51,708 | 9,254 | 17.90% | | Sugar | -198,231 | -168,411 | -29,820 | -17.70% | | Cocoa | 1,998 | -375 | 2,373 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and price spreads. It also includes macro and industry news, such as production, export, and planting progress in the oil and fat sector [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,550 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.11% decline and 208,452 yuan/ton at night with a -1.15% decline; soybean oil futures closed at 8,190 yuan/ton during the day (-0.41%) and 8,156 yuan/ton at night (-0.42%); rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,816 yuan/ton during the day (0.38%) and 9,843 yuan/ton at night (0.28%). Malaysian palm oil futures (December contract) closed at 4,068 ringgit/ton with a -2.09% decline, and CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 50.61 cents/pound with a -0.67% decline [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil futures had a trading volume of 692,437 lots and an open interest of 425,907 lots; soybean oil futures had a trading volume of 320,656 lots and an open interest of 420,191 lots; rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 318,860 lots and an open interest of 243,924 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,240 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,040 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 330 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 424 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,266 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 360 yuan/ton. Other spreads, such as palm oil 1 - 5 spread, soybean oil 1 - 5 spread, and rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread, also showed certain changes [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Production**: Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production is expected to exceed 19.5 million tons, higher than 19.3 million tons in 2024 [2]. - **Exports**: SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of the week ending October 7, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 25,308 lots to 186,808 lots, short positions decreased by 22,899 lots to 146,934 lots; CBOT soybean oil long positions increased by 7,272 lots to 133,598 lots, short positions decreased by 4,830 lots to 9,324 lots [4]. - **USDA Pressing Report**: In August, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 5.94 million tons (198 million bushels), and the corn consumption for fuel ethanol production was 463.4 million bushels, lower than the same period last year. The output of U.S. corn distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) in August decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [4]. - **Planting Progress**: Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area has reached 79.61% of the estimated area, lower than the same period last year. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress has increased by 12 percentage points and reached 24.6% of the planned area [5]. - **European Pressing**: In October 2025, the EU 27 + UK's rapeseed crushing volume was 1.555 million tons, soybean crushing volume was 1.063 million tons, and the total oilseed crushing volume was 3.157 million tons [6]. - **Ukraine's Situation**: Ukraine will continue to reduce the soybean planting area in 2026 due to reduced profitability. In 2025, the soybean planting area was about 2.1 million hectares, and as of November 21, the threshing volume was 4.72 million tons [6]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is not clearly stated in the report. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, indicating different levels of market sentiment [7].

Market Overview - As of October 31, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 12,504 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - National corn processing volume for the week of October 23-29 was 597,300 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons from the previous week [1] - Weekly corn starch production reached 304,500 tons, up 16,800 tons from the prior week, with an operating rate of 58.86%, reflecting a 3.25% increase [1] - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 157,000 long positions and 215,800 short positions in corn starch, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.73 and a net position decrease of 2,454 contracts [1] Industry Insights - According to Guangzhou Futures, the recent fluctuation in the starch-corn price spread is attributed to two main factors: the reduction of industry inventory and improved corn quality concerns in North China following rainfall, suggesting that the deep processing corn purchase prices may gradually align with feed corn prices [2] - As new season corn supply increases, the pressure on raw corn supply is rising, leading to a decline in corn starch cost support. Additionally, the competitive advantage of cassava starch continues to squeeze the demand for corn starch [3] - Despite the ongoing low operating rates compared to previous years, recent good sales performance has led to a slight decrease in corporate inventory. As of October 29, total corn starch inventory across enterprises was 1,128,000 tons, down 12,000 tons week-on-week, with a weekly decline of 1.05% and a monthly decline of 0.97%, but a year-on-year increase of 36.89% [3] - The market for starch is expected to fluctuate in tandem with the corn market, with a short-term outlook of cautious observation [3]

Core Insights - The main contract for soybean meal (菜粕) 2601 has seen a price increase of 8.04% as of August 13, with a trading volume of 327,700 contracts and a net long position of 47,329 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all soybean meal contracts reached 1,371,700 contracts, a decrease of 9,355 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions for long holdings amounted to 582,000 contracts, an increase of 40,900 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions for short holdings totaled 543,100 contracts, an increase of 37,000 contracts from the previous day [1]. Major Players - The top three long positions are held by: - QianKun Futures with a total holding of 70,201 contracts - CITIC Futures with 64,644 contracts - JPMorgan with 61,838 contracts [1][3]. - The top three short positions are held by: - Guotai Junan with 61,794 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with 58,934 contracts - CITIC Futures with 42,334 contracts [1][3]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increases in long positions were seen in: - Haitong Futures with an increase of 12,074 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with an increase of 4,887 contracts - Huatai Futures with an increase of 2,624 contracts [1][3]. - The largest decreases in long positions were recorded by: - JPMorgan with a decrease of 8,918 contracts - QianKun Futures with a decrease of 3,404 contracts - CITIC Futures with a decrease of 2,343 contracts [1][3]. Overall Market Data - The total trading volume for soybean meal contracts on August 13 was 1,809,861 contracts, with a net change of 328,596 contracts [4]. - The total long positions across all contracts were 485,527 contracts, while total short positions were 475,995 contracts [4].

Core Viewpoint - As of August 12, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index futures main contract closed at 2509, with a change of +0.61%, and a trading volume of 36,500 contracts, indicating a net short position among the top 20 positions with a difference of 10,723 contracts [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all contracts was 57,400 contracts, an increase of 8,277 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions showed a long position of 65,000 contracts, a decrease of 1,400 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions had a short position of 81,000 contracts, a decrease of 1,056 contracts from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 12,328 contracts, CITIC Futures with 10,449 contracts, and Galaxy Futures with 4,033 contracts [1]. - The top three short positions were held by CITIC Futures with 18,378 contracts, Guotai Junan with 12,633 contracts, and GF Futures with 9,283 contracts [1]. - The top three long position increases were from Huawen Futures (+234 contracts), Yong'an Futures (+135 contracts), and Everbright Futures (+115 contracts) [1]. Group 3: Changes in Positions - The top three long position decreases were from Dongzheng Futures (-215 contracts), Huatai Futures (-207 contracts), and GF Futures (-144 contracts) [1]. - The top three short position increases were from Bank of China Futures (+302 contracts), Nanhua Futures (+168 contracts), and招商期货 (+160 contracts) [1]. - The top three short position decreases were from Huatai Futures (-309 contracts), Guotai Junan (-94 contracts), and Guoxin Futures (-147 contracts) [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading performance of soybean meal futures, specifically the main contract 2601, which saw an increase of 3.98% in price, with a trading volume of 614,000 lots as of August 12 [1][2] - Total trading volume for all soybean meal contracts reached 1.381 million lots, an increase of 547,800 lots compared to the previous day [1] - The top 20 positions in the market showed a net long position with a difference of 45,480 lots, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [1] Group 2 - The top three long positions were held by Citic Futures with a total position of 76,031 lots, Qian Kun Futures with 73,176 lots, and JPMorgan with 69,447 lots [1] - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan with 54,070 lots, Citic Futures with 47,340 lots, and Dongzheng Futures with 45,905 lots [1] - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increase in long positions was seen in Qian Kun Futures with an increase of 10,544 lots, followed by Everbright Futures with an increase of 4,322 lots, and COFCO Futures with an increase of 3,916 lots [1] Group 3 - The overall long positions in the top 20 increased to 556,000 lots, up by 9,326 lots from the previous day, while short positions decreased to 525,700 lots, down by 4,450 lots [1] - The trading data indicates a significant shift in market sentiment, with more traders taking long positions in soybean meal futures [1] - The article provides detailed statistics on the trading activities of various futures companies, showcasing their respective positions and changes in holdings [3][4]