Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's latest report highlights a significantly underestimated risk chain related to the disruption of fertilizer supply due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which controls 36% of global urea and 29% of ammonia exports, pushing the fertilizer supply chain to the brink of collapse [1][4][7]. Group 1: Fertilizer Supply Chain Impact - The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is not only an energy crisis but is also leading to a fertilizer crisis that will deeply impact global grain prices through cost transmission mechanisms [4][6]. - Middle Eastern countries play a crucial role in global fertilizer trade, accounting for approximately 36% of global urea exports and 29% of ammonia exports, with over 90% of urea production in the region being exported [7]. - Fertilizer costs constitute over 50% of the variable costs in grain production, and a tightening supply will have profound and lasting impacts on agricultural yields, particularly in Brazil and India, which are key global grain producers [9]. Group 2: Price Forecast Adjustments - Citigroup has raised its price targets for major grains: corn to 475 cents/bushel for the next three months, wheat to 600 cents/bushel, and soybeans to 1250 cents/bushel, indicating a significant bullish sentiment in the market [4][11]. - The report anticipates that if the Strait remains blocked for more than six weeks, it will decisively push corn and wheat prices higher [10]. - The USDA is expected to further reduce new crop planting areas to 94 million acres, tightening market supply [11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The latest CFTC report shows a significant shift in market sentiment, with money managers turning net long on corn and soybeans, while the net short position in wheat has narrowed considerably [14]. - The increase in fertilizer prices is expected to push up CBOT futures prices, as input costs for farms are projected to rise significantly due to inflationary pressures [15].

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments during the week from March 2 to March 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.93% to close at 4124.19 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index declining by 2.22% to 14172.63 points [9][11] - The convertible bond market also saw a decline, with the China Convertible Bond Index dropping by 2.07% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 2.21% during the week [16] - The bond market showed a general strengthening trend, with the 1-year China government bond yield decreasing by 3.58 basis points, and the 10-year yield down by 0.67 basis points [20] Group 2 - In the commodity market, performance was mixed, with WTI crude oil rising significantly by 35.63%, while COMEX gold and silver fell by 2.17% and 10.27% respectively [10][28] - The South China Commodity Index overall strengthened, with a 6.43% increase, driven by strong performance in energy and chemical sectors, which rose by 15.45% [28] - The market saw active trading in both convertible bonds and underlying stocks, with transaction volumes of 3674.49 billion and 7711.56 billion respectively, indicating a recovery in trading activity [16]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - The "Government Work Report" presented at the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress sets this year's main development targets, including an economic growth rate of 4.5%-5%, a target for new urban employment of over 12 million, and a CPI increase of around 2%. The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft outlines 20 key indicators in areas such as economic development, innovation, people's livelihood, and green - low - carbon development [2] - Reuters forecasts the end - of - season inventories of US crops in the 2025/26 season, with an average expected soybean end - of - season inventory of 344 million bushels and a corn end - of - season inventory of 2.136 billion bushels [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts the price limit and margin ratios for fuel oil futures contracts [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opens in Beijing, and the "Government Work Report" sets this year's development targets [2] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft proposes 20 main indicators, covering economic development, innovation, people's livelihood, and green - low - carbon aspects [2] - Iran's military official states that Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz and is handling ships passing through the strait according to international rules [2] - Reuters releases forecasts for the end - of - season inventories of US crops in the 2025/26 season [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts the price limit and margin ratios for fuel oil futures contracts [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, coking coal, Shanghai aluminum, asphalt, PP [4] - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.00%, precious metals rose 31.85%, oilseeds rose 7.75%, non - ferrous metals rose 26.19%, soft commodities rose 2.73%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 9.51%, energy rose 5.08%, chemicals rose 10.99%, grains rose 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.77% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.64% daily, - 1.30% monthly, and 3.52% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell - 0.56% daily, - 0.70% monthly, and - 0.22% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell - 0.03% daily, rose 0.14% monthly, and rose 0.64% year - to - date [6] - Commodities: WTI crude oil rose 5.65% daily, 17.33% monthly, and 37.18% year - to - date; London spot gold fell - 0.70% daily, - 3.67% monthly, and rose 17.75% year - to - date [6] - Others: The US dollar index rose 0.25% daily, 1.43% monthly, and 0.79% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index rose 12.29% daily, 19.59% monthly, and 58.86% year - to - date [6] Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents charts of various major commodity trends, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of various asset classes in the week from February 24th to February 27th, 2026. The equity market showed overall recovery, the convertible bond market declined, the bond market mostly weakened, and commodity futures mostly strengthened. Different market segments were affected by various factors such as policy changes, external trade environment, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Performance of Major Asset Classes - The equity market showed overall recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98% to 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.8% to 14495.09 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.05% to 3310.3 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges totaled 9.69 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% to 26630.54 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.41% to 5137.84 points [9]. - The convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24% in the past week, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26% [9]. - The bond market mostly weakened. The yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 30-year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10-year yield decreased by 0.22bp [9]. - Commodity futures mostly strengthened, with silver performing strongly. COMEX gold rose 3.24%, COMEX silver rose 11.61%, LME copper rose 2.28%, LME aluminum rose 1.16%, WTI crude oil rose 0.81%, SHFE rebar rose 0.98%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.41%, and CBOT corn rose 1.88% [10]. 3.2 Performance of the Equity Market - Stocks - The equity market rose this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming. Most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals leading the gains. The media, consumer services, and non-bank financial sectors led the declines. The media sector fell 5.21%, consumer services fell 4.14%, and non-bank financials fell 3.21%. The steel sector rose 9.52%, and the comprehensive financial sector rose 2.17% [14]. - Market rotation was still active this week. The market style switched again. Benefiting from post-holiday resumption of work and production, cyclical and resource sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector was relatively weak. In addition, technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips also performed well [14]. - The reasons for the market performance are that the trading volume increased in the first week after the holiday, and the trading activity improved. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of many commodities have continued to rise. On the one hand, driven by the expansion of AI-related demand, the prosperity of sub - sectors such as chips and electronic cloth has increased, and prices have strengthened. On the other hand, the prices of resources such as gold and silver have also risen to varying degrees. Under the combined effect of rising product prices and improved profit expectations, relevant fields have strengthened synchronously. In the steel sector, many steel enterprises announced a "good start" in production in the first month of this year, and the production and sales indicators of some steel enterprises performed well, enhancing the investment confidence in the sector [14]. 3.3 Performance of the Equity Market - Convertible Bonds - The equity market rose this week, while the convertible bond market fell. As of February 27, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%. The trading volumes of convertible bonds and underlying stocks this week were 2945.06 billion yuan and 5968.85 billion yuan respectively, and the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined compared with before the holiday [16]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, lagging behind the overall stock market performance. The resource and pro - cyclical sectors of A - shares showed obvious upward trends, while some high - valuation technology and growth stocks were under pressure. At the same time, the trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, which may have had a certain impact on the convertible bond market [16]. 3.4 Performance of the Fixed - Income Market - The bond market yields generally increased this week, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.22bp [18]. - During the Spring Festival, the US tariff policy fluctuated again, increasing the uncertainty of the external trade environment and affecting the market risk appetite, which had a certain impact on the short - term bond market. On February 25th, Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for Shanghai" real estate optimization policy, which adjusted the purchase restrictions, housing provident fund use, and property tax, etc. The policy was aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and expectations. Affected by the policy's boost to the real estate chain sentiment, the risk appetite for equities was marginally repaired, and the bond market was under pressure [18]. - In terms of the capital side, on February 25th, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. From the perspective of the operation intensity and reverse repurchase scale, the monetary policy continued to be relatively loose, and the attitude of maintaining liquidity was stable. Especially before the Two Sessions, the policy orientation of stabilizing the capital side is expected to continue, and the capital price is likely to remain in a reasonable range and be generally stable. In the future, although the bond market sentiment has improved compared with before, there are not enough incremental factors to drive the yield to break through the oscillation range effectively. Before there is a new dominant variable, the market's long and short forces are still relatively balanced, and the bond market is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [19]. 3.5 Performance of the Commodity Market - The Nanhua Commodity Index strengthened overall this week, with precious metals performing strongly. The index rose 3.56% in total. Precious metals led the gains, rising 8.55% compared with the week before the Spring Festival. Metals rose 3.06%, industrial products rose 2.47%, energy and chemicals rose 2.14%, and agricultural products rose 1.19% [27]. - The gold price continued to rise this week and remained at a high level. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation and the variable policy orientation of the Trump administration have increased the external geopolitical risk premium. At the same time, the short - term rebound of international oil prices and the creation of a new stage high have strengthened the market's re - pricing expectations for inflation and the energy supply - demand pattern, driving the precious metal and energy sectors to strengthen synchronously. In the future, the evolution of the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and there are also significant differences in the Fed's policy path. It is expected that gold will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [28][30].

Market Performance - Developed markets experienced a broad increase during the Spring Festival, with MSCI Global rising by 1.1%, MSCI Developed Markets by 1.2%, and MSCI Emerging Markets by 0.8% [8][14] - The strongest performance in developed markets was from the South Korean Composite Index, which rose by 5.5%, while the weakest was the Nikkei 225, which fell by 0.2% [8][14] - In the bond market, the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield saw the largest increase of 4.0 basis points, while Japan experienced the largest decrease of 9.3 basis points [8][16] Trading Sentiment - Trading volumes in major markets decreased during the Spring Festival, with the S&P 500's trading volume dropping to 3.6 billion shares and $503.7 billion [18] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong declined, with the short-selling ratio rising to 20.2%, indicating a historical low in sentiment [18][21] - In contrast, the North American investment sentiment, as measured by the NAAIM Manager Exposure Index, increased to 82.9%, reflecting a historically high position [18][21] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for U.S. stocks were revised upward, with the S&P 500's 2026 EPS forecast increasing from +12.7% to +12.9% [66] - In comparison, the earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks remained flat, with the Hang Seng Index's 2026 EPS forecast at +11.1% [66] - European stocks saw a downward revision in earnings expectations, with the Eurozone STOXX50's 2026 EPS forecast adjusted from -3.1% to -3.0% [66][67] Economic Expectations - Economic indicators showed a notable recovery in Central and Eastern Europe, while the U.S. economic surprise index was downgraded due to lower-than-expected Q4 GDP growth and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [8][66] - The European economic surprise index increased, likely due to the rejection of tariff decisions and significant growth in German economic output [8][66] Fund Flows - There was a marginal tightening in overseas liquidity expectations, with the market anticipating the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.2 times in 2026, a decrease from the previous week [50][51] - Global micro liquidity saw significant inflows into the U.S., Europe, South Korea, and Japan, while there was a net outflow from mainland China [58][61]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report presents the price changes of various international varieties from February 13th, 15:00 to February 23rd, 18:00 in 2026, including stock indices, commodities, and currency indices [3]. 2. Key Points by Category Stock Indices - The FTSE A50 Index rose from 14,684 to 14,919, a 1.60% increase [3]. - The Hang Seng Index increased from 26,595.15 to 27,081.91, a 1.83% rise [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Index went up from 49,451.98 to 49,625.97, a 0.35% increase [3]. - The S&P 500 Index climbed from 6,832.76 to 6,909.51, a 1.12% gain [3]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index advanced from 22,597.15 to 22,886.07, a 1.28% increase [3]. - The Nikkei 225 Index dropped from 56,941.97 to 56,825.7, a 0.20% decline [3]. Commodity Indices - The Baltic Dry Index decreased from 2,083 to 2,043, a 1.92% fall [3]. Energy Commodities - Brent Crude Oil rose from $67.55 to $71.04, a 5.17% increase [3]. - US Crude Oil increased from $62.83 to $66.23, a 5.41% rise [3]. Precious Metals - CMX Gold climbed from $4,986.7 to $5,170.1, a 3.68% gain [3]. - CMX Silver advanced from $77.105 to $86.515, a 12.20% increase [3]. Base Metals - LME Copper rose from $12,894.5 to $12,966, a 0.55% increase [3]. - LME Aluminum increased from $3,062.5 to $3,102.5, a 1.31% rise [3]. - LME Zinc went up from $3,352.5 to $3,377.5, a 0.75% increase [3]. - LME Lead dropped from $1,976.5 to $1,963, a 0.68% decline [3]. - LME Nickel advanced from $17,255 to $17,600, a 2.00% increase [3]. - LME Tin climbed from $46,940 to $47,500, a 1.19% gain [3]. Iron Ore - TSI Iron Ore decreased from $97.15 to $95.85, a 1.34% fall [3]. Agricultural Commodities - CBOT Soybeans rose from $1,134.75 to $1,146.75, a 1.06% increase [3]. - CBOT Soybean Meal increased from $308.6 to $309.7, a 0.36% rise [3]. - CBOT Soybean Oil advanced from $57.26 to $59.67, a 4.21% increase [3]. - CBOT Corn climbed from $430.25 to $438.75, a 1.98% gain [3]. - CBOT Wheat rose from $550.75 to $575.75, a 4.54% increase [3]. - MDE Crude Palm Oil increased from 3,996 to 4,084, a 2.20% rise [3]. - ICE No. 2 Cotton advanced from 64.26 to 65.46, a 1.87% increase [3]. - ICE No. 11 Sugar climbed from 13.53 to 13.9, a 2.73% gain [3]. Currency Indices - The US Dollar Index rose from 97.0775 to 97.6349, a 0.57% increase [3]. Currency Pairs - The US Dollar against Offshore RMB decreased from 6.908 to 6.8852, a 0.33% decline [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

Group 1: Core Data 1. Average price change in the last five years - NYMEX crude oil: 2.01% [2] - NYMEX natural gas: -3.73% [2] - COMEX gold: 0.15% [2] - COMEX silver: 2.23% [2] - LME copper: 1.77% [2] - LME zinc: 1.05% [2] - LME nickel: 1.02% [2] - LME aluminum: 0.99% [2] - LME tin: 3.65% [2] - LME lead: 1.13% [2] - CBOT soybeans: 1.83% [2] - CBOT corn: 0.20% [2] - CBOT soybean oil: -0.59% [2] - CBOT soybean meal: 2.78% [2] - CBOT wheat: 0.60% [2] - CBOT rice: -1.32% [2] - ICE No. 11 sugar: -0.04% [2] - ICE No. 2 cotton: 2.45% [2] - S&P 500: 1.03% [2] - US dollar index: -0.12% [2] - CRB commodity index: 1.30% [2] - BDI: 6.93% [2] 2. Average price change in the last ten years - NYMEX crude oil: 0.01% [2] - NYMEX natural gas: -3.23% [2] - COMEX gold: 0.82% [2] - COMEX silver: 1.95% [2] - LME copper: 0.00% [2] - LME zinc: 0.11% [2] - LME nickel: 0.44% [2] - LME aluminum: 0.27% [2] - LME tin: 1.70% [2] - LME lead: 0.53% [2] - CBOT soybeans: 0.61% [2] - CBOT corn: -0.19% [2] - CBOT soybean oil: -0.43% [2] - CBOT soybean meal: 0.81% [2] - CBOT wheat: -0.53% [2] - CBOT rice: -1.71% [2] - ICE No. 11 sugar: -0.07% [2] - ICE No. 2 cotton: 1.28% [2] - S&P 500: 0.08% [2] - US dollar index: -0.03% [2] - CRB commodity index: 0.01% [2] - BDI: 0.67% [2] 3. Annual price change from 2016 - 2025 - NYMEX crude oil: 1.16% (2016), -0.13% (2017), 1.19% (2018), -4.80% (2019), -7.31% (2020), 5.70% (2021), 5.30% (2022), -2.83% (2023), 2.33% (2024), -0.48% (2025) [2] - NYMEX natural gas: -1.50% (2016), -5.11% (2017), 0.87% (2018), -4.21% (2019), -3.71% (2020), 8.77% (2021), -2.88% (2022), -8.97% (2023), -15.01% (2024), -0.56% (2025) [2] - COMEX gold: 5.49% (2016), 2.24% (2017), -1.99% (2018), -0.29% (2019), 2.00% (2020), -3.75% (2021), 0.92% (2022), -0.01% (2023), -1.18% (2024), 4.78% (2025) [2] - COMEX silver: 5.06% (2016), 4.14% (2017), -1.72% (2018), -0.53% (2019), 1.35% (2020), 1.29% (2021), 0.13% (2022), -1.39% (2023), 3.60% (2024), 7.54% (2025) [2] - LME copper: -2.71% (2016), 0.97% (2017), -0.38% (2018), 0.98% (2019), -7.72% (2020), 1.66% (2021), 3.99% (2022), -0.77% (2023), 2.99% (2024), 0.96% (2025) [2] - LME zinc: 1.83% (2016), 3.29% (2017), -0.91% (2018), -2.14% (2019), -6.24% (2020), 2.97% (2021), -0.14% (2022), 0.75% (2023), 2.58% (2024), -0.88% (2025) [2] - LME nickel: -4.50% (2016), 10.59% (2017), -1.43% (2018), -0.75% (2019), -4.55% (2020), 0.32% (2021), 3.34% (2022), 1.26% (2023), 1.62% (2024), -1.45% (2025) [2] - LME aluminum: -0.13% (2016), 0.80% (2017), 0.91% (2018), 0.16% (2019), -3.93% (2020), 2.13% (2021), 0.88% (2022), 1.45% (2023), -0.31% (2024), 0.79% (2025) [2] - LME tin: 1.82% (2016), -0.55% (2017), 0.16% (2018), 0.89% (2019), -3.61% (2020), 5.25% (2021), 3.36% (2022), 3.52% (2023), 3.85% (2024), 2.28% (2025) [2] - LME lead: 4.76% (2016), 1.67% (2017), -0.81% (2018), -1.53% (2019), -4.45% (2020), 1.10% (2021), -1.76% (2022), 4.58% (2023), 0.85% (2024), 0.87% (2025) [2] - CBOT soybeans: 0.35% (2016), -0.93% (2017), 1.90% (2018), -0.22% (2019), -4.10% (2020), 2.16% (2021), 5.76% (2022), 0.22% (2023), -1.84% (2024), 2.85% (2025) [2] - CBOT corn: -1.85% (2016), 1.10% (2017), 1.84% (2018), -0.93% (2019), -3.11% (2020), 3.76% (2021), -2.28% (2022), 0.96% (2023), -3.87% (2024), 2.44% (2025) [2] - CBOT soybean oil: 2.72% (2016), 0.15% (2017), 0.63% (2018), 3.35% (2019), -8.26% (2020), 2.30% (2021), 0.25% (2022), -2.05% (2023), -5.07% (2024), 1.64% (2025) [2] - CBOT soybean meal: -1.50% (2016), -2.14% (2017), 2.69% (2018), -1.83% (2019), -2.98% (2020), 2.18% (2021), 7.82% (2022), 2.09% (2023), -2.42% (2024), 4.22% (2025) [2] - CBOT wheat: -1.87% (2016), 1.70% (2017), -1.87% (2018), -1.24% (2019), -5.07% (2020), 2.13% (2021), -2.79% (2022), 0.84% (2023), -4.99% (2024), 7.84% (2025) [2] - CBOT rice: -2.88% (2016), -2.31% (2017), -2.33% (2018), -2.81% (2019), -0.11% (2020), -1.82% (2021), 2.18% (2022), 0.94% (2023), -1.66% (2024), -6.26% (2025) [2] - ICE No. 11 sugar: -1.43% (2016), 0.59% (2017), -0.30% (2018), 0.71% (2019), -0.07% (2020), -3.76% (2021), -0.11% (2022), 6.75% (2023), -5.85% (2024), 2.77% (2025) [2] - ICE No. 2 cotton: -2.15% (2016), 3.52% (2017), 4.26% (2018), -1.52% (2019), -3.59% (2020), 4.39% (2021), 2.35% (2022), 0.25% (2023), 5.90% (2024), -0.64% (2025) [2] - S&P 500: -0.81% (2016), -0.69% (2017), 0.10% (2018), 0.05% (2019), -3.01% (2020), 0.55% (2021), 1.55% (2022), 2.47% (2023), 0.15% (2024), 0.43% (2025) [2] - US dollar index: -1.05% (2016), -0.66% (2017), 1.23% (2018), 1.08% (2019), -0.32% (2020), 0.54% (2021), -1.80% (2022), -0.07% (2023), 0.13% (2024), 0.62% (2025) [2] - CRB commodity index: -0.97% (2016), -0.38% (2017), 0.93% (2018), -1.39% (2019), -4.60% (2020), 2.50% (2021), 3.34% (2022), -0.29% (2023), -0.36% (2024), 1.30% (2025) [2] - BDI: -2.02% (2016), -8.33% (2017), 4.66% (2018), -6.82% (2019), -15.45% (2020), 34.77% (2021), 3.04% (2022), -11.40% (2023), 9.30% (2024), -1.05% (2025) [2]

Hot News - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified Iran's official stance on the talks with the US in Oman, stating that the negotiations will be held in Muscat around 10 am on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the meeting location from Istanbul, Turkey, to Oman, causing concern in the Middle East [2] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will release the January non - farm payroll report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of the January CPI inflation report to February 13 [2] - A Reuters survey showed that due to a surge in exports during the seasonal production slowdown, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will end a 10 - month growth streak in January. Palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% decrease from December. Production is expected to fall 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline, but it may still be the highest January production since 2019 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in Sino - US relations, and the US must handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [3] - EIA report data showed that in the week ending January 30, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a 0.82% decline. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [3] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, platinum, crude oil, and Shanghai copper [4] Night - session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.09% increase; precious metals had a 34.97% increase; oilseeds and fats had an 8.21% increase; soft commodities had a 2.41% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 26.35% increase; coal, coke, steel, and minerals had a 10.07% increase; energy had a 2.32% increase; chemicals had a 9.89% increase; grains had a 0.97% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 2.73% increase [4] Sector Position - The data shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.36%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 1.14%, a monthly increase of 0.09%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.26%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.15%, a monthly decrease of 0.85%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.16%; the S&P 500 had a daily decrease of 0.51%, a monthly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.54%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.75%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 0.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily decrease of 0.78%, a monthly increase of 1.82%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.85%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74% [6] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.01%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.35%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.04%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.09%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.05% [6] Commodities - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.91%, a monthly decrease of 2.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 1.90%, a monthly decrease of 1.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.02%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.38%, a monthly increase of 1.74%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.97%; LME copper had a daily decrease of 3.25%, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.35%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 6.68%, a monthly decrease of 10.35%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.00% [6] Others - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.27%, a monthly increase of 0.55%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.63%; the CBOE volatility index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 3.21%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.40% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as stock market risk preferences and risk premiums [7]

Key Points - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, aligning with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell indicated that rate hikes are not a basic assumption for future actions, emphasizing the Fed's independence [1][19] - President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, pending Senate approval. However, Senate leaders from both parties have expressed intentions to block Walsh's nomination unless investigations into Powell are dropped. Analysts suggest that Walsh's leadership could lead to significant changes in Fed policy, potentially combining rate cuts with balance sheet reduction [2][20] - Walsh's nomination triggered hawkish expectations, causing a historic drop in global precious metals markets. Silver fell over 35%, gold dropped nearly 13%, and platinum and palladium also saw significant declines [3][20] - China's January manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4, reflecting reduced business activity in the construction sector [4][21] - In the U.S., durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, the largest growth in six months, surpassing the expected 3.7% increase. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [5][21] - Trump stated that he is not concerned about the dollar's performance, suggesting it is returning to its appropriate level. Following his comments, the dollar index fell over 1%, reaching a nearly four-year low [6][21] Market Review Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 7.32% to $69.83, while COMEX gold fell by 2.12% to $4907.5. The dollar index decreased by 39.01 basis points, leading to a depreciation of the yuan by 102 basis points [22][24] Stock Market - The A-share market saw a decline, with the small-cap index dropping 3.78%, while the Shanghai 50 index increased by 1.13%. The overall market sentiment has softened as the spring rally comes to an end [26][30] Bond Market - In the bond market, credit bonds generally declined, with 3Y and AA- bonds down by 7 basis points. Government bonds also saw slight declines, with 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y bonds down by 2 basis points [13][32]