Commodity Prices - Aluminum futures increased from 1969.5 to 2161.8, a rise of 9.76% [3] - Lithium futures rose from 1584 to 1695.5, marking a 7.04% increase [3] - Brent crude oil decreased from 61.22 to 60.8, a decline of 0.69% [3] - Natural gas prices fell from 3.852 to 3.641, a drop of 5.48% [3] Stock Market Indices - The Hang Seng Index increased from 25630.54 to 26338.47, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [3] - The S&P 500 index decreased from 6896.24 to 6858.47, a decline of 0.55% [3] - The Nasdaq index fell from 23419.08 to 23235.629, a decrease of 0.78% [3] Foreign Exchange Rates - The US Dollar Index rose from 98.3 to 98.49, an increase of 0.19% [3] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate decreased from 1.1737 to 1.1716, a decline of 0.18% [3] - The CNH to US Dollar rate fell from 6.9843 to 6.9704, a decrease of 0.20% [3] Bond Yields - The yield on 2-year US Treasury bonds decreased from 104.4296 to 104.3711, a drop of 0.06% [3] - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 112.6093 to 112.1875, a decline of 0.37% [3]

重要信息点评 1、国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，服务业生产指数同比 增长4.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%。1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，其中， 制造业投资增长1.9%，房地产开发投资下降15.9%。11月全国城镇调查失业率持平于5.1%。 2、美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人；但失 业率却意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期 的下降2.5万人；8月和9月也合计下修3.3万人。11月平均时薪同比增长3.5%，为2021年5月以来最低增 速。 3、美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。整体CPI同比上 涨2.7%，低于预期的3.1%。不过，由于数据采集受到联邦政府停摆的严重干扰，这份通胀报告的可靠 性受到市场质疑。 4、商务部、央行、金融监管总局发布《关于加强商务和金融协同更大力度提振消费的通知》，针对深 化商务和金融系统协作、加大消费重点领域金融支持、扩大政金企对接合作三个方 ...

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）补发11月18日当周交易员持仓报告：CBOT玉米净多头头寸增加 77,650手合约。 COMEX黄金头寸减少7,145手合约。 | 1 | | | | Weekly | Weekly | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | Agricultur Nov. 18 | | Nov. 11 | Net Chg | % Chg | | 3 | Corn | 38,127 | -39,523 | 77,650 | n/a | | 4 | Soybeans | 229,625 | 194,443 | 35,182 | 18.10% | | 5 | Soybean ( | -8,111 | -24,124 | 16,013 | 66.40% | | 6 | Soybean N | 59,311 | 30,026 | 29,285 | 97.50% | | 7 | Wheat CB | -48,691 | -58,761 | 10,070 | 17.10% | | 8 | Wheat KC | -19,939 | -33,217 | 13, ...

重要信息点评 1、11月30日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2，前值49。非制造业商务活动 指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。 2、美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新升 温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销 售四个月来首次下滑。 3、美国9月耐用品订单初值环比增0.5%，较前值修正后的3%明显放缓。扣除飞机的非国防资本耐用品 订单（核心资本品订单）初值环比增长0.9%，远超市场预期的0.3%，前值由0.4%上修至0.9%。 4、11月24日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，釜山会晤以来，中美关系总 体稳定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明，中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反 复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正 确方向，秉持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展，为中美关系 打开新的合作空间。习近平阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场 ...

Group 1 - The new LPR in China remains stable for the sixth consecutive month, with the 1-year and 5-year rates at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November is at 51.9, a four-month low, while the services PMI is at 55, a four-month high, indicating mixed economic signals [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts, with some advocating for a potential cut in December [2] - New York Fed President Williams suggests there is still room for further rate cuts as the labor market cools, while other officials express caution about high asset valuations [2] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with probabilities rising from 44% to 71% following supportive comments from several Fed officials [13] Group 3 - In the futures market, various commodities experienced price declines, with ICE Brent crude oil down 2.92% and COMEX gold down 0.77% [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 86.82 basis points, influenced by deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations and Fed meeting minutes that dampened rate cut expectations [4] - The A-share market saw declines across major indices, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.15%, attributed to falling risk appetite and Fed meeting outcomes [6] Group 4 - The bond market showed mixed movements, with credit bonds slightly rising while interest rate bonds experienced minor fluctuations [10] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, particularly the 5-year yield, which fell by 12 basis points, amid mixed economic signals and Fed officials' support for potential rate cuts [12]

Group 1 - The US government ended its longest shutdown lasting 43 days on November 12, with President Trump signing a temporary funding bill [8][9] - The US stock market showed a pattern of initial gains followed by declines, with the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 2.3% on Thursday [8][10] - The Federal Reserve officials adopted a hawkish tone, indicating that the government shutdown could impact the December meeting, leading to a decrease in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [8][10] Group 2 - Key economic data includes the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index for October at 98.2, below expectations of 98.5 and the previous value of 98.8 [9] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury auction on November 12 was 4.074%, down from the previous 4.12% [9] - API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 7 was reported at 1.3 million barrels, lower than the previous 6.521 million barrels [9] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with COMEX silver rising by 9.67% and COMEX gold by 4.23% [26] - The French CAC40 index had the highest gain at 3.55%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index fell by 1.40% [30] - In the US equity market, the healthcare sector saw the largest increase of 4.11%, while the consumer discretionary sector experienced the largest decline of 1.60% [36] Group 4 - The foreign exchange market saw the Australian dollar appreciating by 1.07% against the RMB, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.42% [37] - The commodity market had mixed results, with COMEX silver leading gains at 9.67%, while NYMEX light crude oil fell by 2.07% [43] - The liquidity environment showed varied trends in long-term interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield in Germany rising by 4 basis points to 2.71% [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the holiday week, with the MSCI global index up 0.8%, and Taiwan and Korea indices leading with gains of 3.6% each [2][5] - The US stock market saw slight increases in major indices, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 rising by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [5][7] - In the bond market, US Treasury yields declined, while government bond yields in several other countries also fell [10][12] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.7, while the offshore RMB slightly depreciated by 0.1% to 7.14 [16][18] Overseas Economic Developments Monetary Policy in the US and Europe - There is a divergence in views regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating caution [18][20] - The European Central Bank's president indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation is lower than expected, with inflation in the Eurozone remaining stable at around 2% [20][36] US Economic Indicators - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, with the leisure and hospitality sector seeing the largest declines [22][24] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50%, indicating weak business activity and continued pressure on employment [24][26] - The US housing market shows signs of recovery, with new home sales increasing by 20.5% month-on-month, although home prices remain under pressure [29][31] Government Shutdown Impact - The US government shutdown, which began on October 1, may last over a week, affecting the release of key economic data [27][31] - Historical data suggests that government shutdowns can slightly impact GDP growth, with estimates indicating a reduction of 0.1-0.2 percentage points per week [31][34] Commodity Market Trends - Global commodity prices, excluding oil, generally rose, with LME tin leading the gains at 4.2% [14][16] - Precious metals also saw increases, with COMEX gold up 2.7% and silver up 3.9% during the holiday week [14][16] Regional Economic Insights - Eurozone inflation remains stable, with a CPI increase to 2.2% in September, driven mainly by service costs [36][37] - Japan's political landscape is shifting with the election of the first female president of the ruling party, who is expected to continue a conservative policy approach [37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the average and median price changes of various commodities and indices during the National Day holidays over the past ten years and the past five years, including NYMEX crude oil, NYMEX natural gas, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, LME aluminum, LME tin, LME lead, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, CBOT soybean oil, CBOT soybean meal, CBOT wheat, CBOT rice, ICE 11 - sugar, ICE 2 - cotton, S&P 500, US Dollar Index, CRB Commodity Index, and BDI [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 NYMEX Crude Oil - Over the past ten years, the average price change during the National Day holiday was 3.18%, with a median of 3.33%. In the past five years, the average was 5.75%, and the median was 4.97% [1] 3.2 NYMEX Natural Gas - The ten - year average price change was 0.97%, and the median was - 1.57%. In the past five years, the average was 0.73%, and the median was - 3.19% [1] 3.3 COMEX Gold - The ten - year average price change was 0.08%, and the median was 0.30%. In the past five years, the average was 0.14%, and the median was 0.21% [1] 3.4 COMEX Silver - The ten - year average price change was 1.33%, and the median was 1.82%. In the past five years, the average was 1.54%, and the median was 2.01% [1] 3.5 LME Copper - The ten - year average price change was 0.26%, and the median was - 0.16%. In the past five years, the average was 0.44%, and the median was - 0.25% [1] 3.6 LME Zinc - The ten - year average price change was - 0.21%, and the median was 0.09%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.21%, and the median was - 0.29% [1] 3.7 LME Nickel - The ten - year average price change was 0.88%, and the median was 1.06%. In the past five years, the average was 1.67%, and the median was 2.20% [1] 3.8 LME Aluminum - The ten - year average price change was 1.87%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.38%, and the median was 2.04% [1] 3.9 LME Tin - The ten - year average price change was 0.98%, and the median was 1.07%. In the past five years, the average was 0.58%, and the median was 1.47% [1] 3.10 LME Lead - The ten - year average price change was 0.92%, and the median was 1.02%. In the past five years, the average was 1.84%, and the median was 2.11% [1] 3.11 CBOT Soybeans - The ten - year average price change was 0.21%, and the median was 0.20%. In the past five years, the average was - 0.61%, and the median was - 0.82% [1] 3.12 CBOT Corn - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.73%. In the past five years, the average was 0.75%, and the median was 0.72% [1] 3.13 CBOT Soybean Oil - The ten - year average price change was 2.32%, and the median was 2.29%. In the past five years, the average was 2.74%, and the median was 2.96% [1] 3.14 CBOT Soybean Meal - The ten - year average price change was - 0.40%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was - 1.73%, and the median was - 2.92% [1] 3.15 CBOT Wheat - The ten - year average price change was 0.09%, and the median was - 0.24%. In the past five years, the average was 0.34%, and the median was 1.71% [1] 3.16 CBOT Rice - The ten - year average price change was 1.03%, and the median was 0.34%. In the past five years, the average was 0.02%, and the median was - 0.53% [1] 3.17 ICE 11 - Sugar - The ten - year average price change was 3.04%, and the median was 1.12%. In the past five years, the average was 1.58%, and the median was - 0.31% [1] 3.18 ICE 2 - Cotton - The ten - year average price change was 0.78%, and the median was 0.14%. In the past five years, the average was 0.96%, and the median was 0.05% [1] 3.19 S&P 500 - The ten - year average price change was 0.74%, and the median was 0.70%. In the past five years, the average was 1.04%, and the median was 1.51% [1] 3.20 US Dollar Index - The ten - year average price change was 0.32%, and the median was 0.23%. In the past five years, the average was 0.38%, and the median was - 0.03% [1] 3.21 CRB Commodity Index - The ten - year average price change was 1.46%, and the median was 1.91%. In the past five years, the average was 2.03%, and the median was 2.37% [1][3] 3.22 BDI - The ten - year average price change was 3.82%, and the median was 4.44%. In the past five years, the average was 7.82%, and the median was 11.61% [1][3]