Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Louis Dreyfus, aiming for an annual transaction of 2.5 billion USD in agricultural products, enhancing its global supply chain network [8] - The company has maintained a strong performance in its supply chain business, with a significant increase in overseas business scale, reaching 9.464 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 23.24% [8] - The company aims to learn from Japanese trading companies to enhance its global operations, positioning itself as a leading international supply chain operator [8] - The company’s real estate segment is experiencing growth despite short-term pressures on its operations [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 70.16 billion, 70.73 billion, and 71.48 billion RMB respectively, with a revenue growth rate of 0.0%, 0.8%, and 1.1% [7][9] - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 3.48 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.26 billion RMB, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 18.2%, 11.1%, and 10.1% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.20, 1.33, and 1.47 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.5x, 7.6x, and 6.9x [7][9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.7% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2027 [7][9]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.82 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 720 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 28.94 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% [1] Group 1: Pulp and Paper Market Outlook - The current market for pulp and paper shows limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics, which hinders further price increases for pulp [2] - Most paper manufacturers lack sufficient profit recovery momentum, reducing their enthusiasm for purchasing wood pulp, which negatively impacts the effective uplift of wood pulp price levels [2] - It is expected that pulp and paper prices will stabilize at the bottom, with Q4 profits for the company in this segment anticipated to remain steady, although the new pulp line in Nanning is expected to contribute additional output [2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion Plans - The company has clear capacity expansion plans, including a 140,000-ton specialty paper project expected to enter trial production in Q1 2026 [3] - Plans include the construction of a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp and alkali recovery project, as well as a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project [3] - In the Nanning area, the first phase of high-end packaging paper production lines is set to begin implementation in H1 2024, with production expected to start in August 2025 [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Based on the performance in the first three quarters of 2025 and considering the current low levels of pulp and paper prices, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts [4] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.43 billion yuan, 3.99 billion yuan, and 4.66 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12X, 10X, and 9X [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 28.62 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - In the short term, the price of pulp has confirmed its bottom, and recent increases in international prices may gradually transmit to paper prices, leading to improved profitability in the second half of the year. In the long term, as new production capacity ramps up, the overall profitability of the company is expected to increase [2][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,553 million CNY in 2023 to 16,517 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.4% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 664 million CNY in 2023 to 1,592 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 51.2% in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.94 CNY in 2023 to 2.26 CNY in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2027 [4]. Production and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,107,900 tons of pulp and paper, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.55% in production and 62.25% in sales volume [12]. - The self-produced pulp has reached a level that can effectively replace imported wood pulp, with the Guangxi base achieving a net profit of 117 million CNY in the first half of 2025 [12]. - The company expects profitability to improve as new production capacities are gradually released, particularly in the Hubei base, which is anticipated to turn profitable [12]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 12.82%, a decrease of 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8%, down 3.84 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company experienced slight increases in expense ratios, with financial expenses rising mainly due to increased interest costs [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit of 453,860,168.23 yuan for Q1 2025 after deducting interest on perpetual bonds, indicating a focus on financial transparency and accountability [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 584 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 20 million yuan year-on-year [4]. - The supply chain operation segment contributed a net profit of 848 million yuan, an increase of 75 million yuan or 9.72% year-on-year, attributed to higher profits from pulp and paper and some mineral products [4]. - The real estate segment reported a net loss of 91 million yuan, a decrease of 34 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the absence of a previous year's investment gain from the sale of equity [4]. - The home furnishing mall operation segment incurred a net loss of 172 million yuan, a decrease of 61 million yuan year-on-year, impacted by external environmental factors and increased fair value losses on investment properties [5]. Corporate Governance - The board of directors and senior management confirmed the accuracy and completeness of the quarterly report, taking legal responsibility for its content [2][3].