宏 观 总 量 2025 年 11 月 17 日 PPI 分析与预测 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： PPI 概况：中国 PPI 仅衡量工业品价格，采用"二分法"（生产资料主导走势）和"行业法"两套并 行的分类体系，以全面反映价格波动来源。 PPI 权重构成与核心驱动：PPI 的走势并非单纯由其权重高低决定，而是由权重与各类别价格变动幅 度共同作用的结果。从 PPI 编制方法看，中国 PPI 权重以工业行业销售产值占比为核心依据。计算机、电 气机械等行业权重虽高，但因价格稳定，对 PPI 整体影响有限。核心驱动由上游资源行业与基础材料主导 （如煤炭、石油、有色、黑色、化工），其价格波动对 PPI 有决定性影响——尽管部分行业（如煤炭）直 接权重不高，但通过行业波动性和成本传导效应产生巨大间接影响力。 PPI 走势展望：我们通过两种方法对 PPI 进行预测。第一种基于关键商品价格假设的测算显示，若煤 炭、石油、有色、黑色、化工价格维持，则 2026 年 PPI 同比增速 ...

中金 11 月数说资产 20251114 10 月份的经济数据表现如何？有哪些主要变化？ 10 月份的经济数据整体放缓，主要由于技术提升、季末效应消退以及需求依然 疲软。具体来看，工业增加值和服务业生产指数分别从上个月的 6.5%和 5.6% 下降至 4.9%和 4.6%。消费方面，社会消费品零售总额增速从 3.0%回落至 2.9%，其中以旧换新的相关品类零售增速降至负 2.2%。固定资产投资 1-10 月累计同比从上个月的负 0.5%进一步回落至负 1.7%，单月环比也从负 0.9% 回落到负 1.6%。 分行业来看，各行业表现如何？ 分行业来看，除了公用事业、汽车、交运设备等少数行业同比增速有所回升外， 大部分行业增速均有回落。工业方面，出口交货值同比转负，同时内需偏弱， 能源金属方面，10 月原油加工量维持高位，石油表观消费同比增长 4%-5%，支撑油价，预计四季度布伦特油价中枢约 65 美元/桶。基础金 属下游需求走弱，对黑色金属价格持谨慎态度，长期看好 2026 年铜铝 价格中枢。 轻工零售美妆行业内销板块业绩偏弱，需政策刺激，但赛道间分化明显， 看好潮玩、美妆等基本面坚实且具成长性的赛道，以及 A ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining has shown significant stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 61.18% and a market capitalization of 578.83 billion yuan as of November 12 [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Western Mining achieved a revenue of 48.442 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.90% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.945 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.80% [2] Stock and Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders for Western Mining was 115,900, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 0.43% to 20,560 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Western Mining has distributed a total of 10.723 billion yuan in dividends, with 6.911 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 111.2 million shares, a decrease of 5.1634 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF ranked as the eighth-largest circulating shareholder with 24.32 million shares, down by 525,900 shares [3] - Guotou Securities Co., Ltd. has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Louis Dreyfus, aiming for an annual transaction of 2.5 billion USD in agricultural products, enhancing its global supply chain network [8] - The company has maintained a strong performance in its supply chain business, with a significant increase in overseas business scale, reaching 9.464 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 23.24% [8] - The company aims to learn from Japanese trading companies to enhance its global operations, positioning itself as a leading international supply chain operator [8] - The company’s real estate segment is experiencing growth despite short-term pressures on its operations [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 70.16 billion, 70.73 billion, and 71.48 billion RMB respectively, with a revenue growth rate of 0.0%, 0.8%, and 1.1% [7][9] - The net profit for the same period is projected to be 3.48 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.26 billion RMB, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 18.2%, 11.1%, and 10.1% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.20, 1.33, and 1.47 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.5x, 7.6x, and 6.9x [7][9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 4.7% in 2025 to 5.6% in 2027 [7][9]

Summary of Xiamen Xiangyu's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiamen Xiangyu - **Period**: First three quarters of 2025 Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 316.9 billion CNY, up 6% year-on-year [3] - **Net Profit**: 1.633 billion CNY, up 84% year-on-year [3] - **Earnings per Share**: 0.49 CNY, an increase of 0.2 CNY [3] - **Return on Equity**: 7.83%, up 3.6 percentage points [3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 7.1 billion CNY, an increase of 6.6 billion CNY [3] Sector Performance - **Total Purchase Volume**: 194 million tons, up 19% year-on-year [3] - **Black Metal Sector**: Purchase volume increased by 57% [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Volume increased by 31% [4] - **New Energy Sector**: Purchase volume increased by 83% [5] - **Logistics Revenue**: Increased by 17%, with significant growth in aluminum and new energy logistics [6] Strategic Initiatives - **Internationalization Strategy**: Over one-third of total trade revenue comes from international business, focusing on logistics-first global strategy [2][10] - **Logistics Expansion**: Establishing core logistics nodes overseas, particularly in the aluminum and new energy sectors [6] - **Diversification**: Product structure diversification and extending the industrial chain to enhance customer loyalty [8] Cost Management and Efficiency - **Financial Expenses**: Decreased by 5.68 billion CNY, primarily due to improved capital efficiency and reduced interest rates [7][18] - **Risk Control**: Enhanced risk management through dynamic monitoring of customer concentration and digital tools [9] Future Outlook - **Growth Expectations**: Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the company is optimistic about achieving its annual performance targets [12][19] - **Investment in Logistics**: Plans to establish localized companies in Guinea, Brazil, and Malaysia to enhance international operations [13] - **Shipbuilding Sector**: Positive outlook with orders secured until 2029, supporting growth through the current industry cycle [15] Shareholder Engagement - **Incentive Programs**: Implemented third phase of equity incentives with plans for further phases to enhance employee engagement [16] - **Dividend Policy**: Commitment to stable high dividends, with plans for mid-term dividend policies based on operational performance [17] Conclusion Xiamen Xiangyu demonstrates strong financial resilience and growth across various sectors, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing international presence and operational efficiency. The company is well-positioned to navigate future challenges while maintaining a focus on shareholder value and sustainable growth.

Core Insights - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in 19 months [1][2] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, indicating improvements in market conditions and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [3] - Emerging industries are experiencing growth, with new consumption patterns and models driving positive price changes in related sectors [4][5] Consumer Market Dynamics - The CPI's month-on-month increase was influenced by a 0.7% rise in food prices, particularly in fresh vegetables, eggs, and meats, due to seasonal factors and supply chain disruptions [1] - The year-on-year CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily due to base effects from the previous year, with a negative impact of approximately 0.8 percentage points from tail effects [2] Producer Price Index Trends - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% reflects a narrowing of price drops in various industries, including coal processing and black metal smelting, as a result of improved market competition and capacity management [3] - Specific sectors, such as coal processing and black metal industries, saw month-on-month price increases of 3.8% and 0.2%, respectively, indicating a stabilization in prices [3] New Consumption Patterns - The growth of new industries and consumption models is contributing to a dual upgrade in industrial consumption, with significant price increases in sectors like aircraft manufacturing (1.4% year-on-year) and electronic materials (1.2% year-on-year) [5][6] - The shift in consumer demand from quantity to quality is evident, with notable price increases in high-quality goods such as arts and crafts (14.7% year-on-year) and nutritional foods (1.8% year-on-year) [7]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight narrowing of the decline compared to August[1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, slightly higher than the same period last year[1] - The food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month but fell by 4.4% year-on-year, close to the August decline[5] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow[2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals increased, while the decline in building materials prices narrowed[2] - The recent external uncertainty, including potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, has not significantly altered domestic economic and price trends[2] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year in September, continuing its upward trend over the past few months[5] - Prices of durable goods, such as household appliances and communication equipment, have recently shown signs of recovery[5] - Other goods and services have seen significant price increases, influenced by rising gold prices[5]

Group 1 - In September, coal processing prices increased by 3.8% month-on-month, while prices in the coal mining and washing industry rose by 2.5% [1] - The prices in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry saw a slight increase of 0.2%, marking two consecutive months of price rises across these sectors [1] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing shifted from a decrease of 0.2% last month to an increase of 0.8% this month [1] Group 2 - Prices in the non-metallic mineral products industry and lithium-ion battery manufacturing decreased by 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, with the decline rates narrowing by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The reduction in prices for coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, battery manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products narrowed by 8.3, 3.4, 3.0, 2.4, 0.5, and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, compared to last month [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September, marking a shift from the previous month where it was flat [2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it returned to a 1% increase [3] Group 2: Food and Energy Prices - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase, with seasonal price increases observed in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef [2] - Year-on-year, food prices fell by 4.4%, primarily driven by significant declines in pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits, which collectively impacted the CPI by approximately 0.78 percentage points [3] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.20 percentage point decline in the CPI [3] Group 3: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, which is a reduction of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][5] - The stabilization in PPI is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, with notable price increases in coal processing and black metal smelting [4] - Input factors, particularly the decline in international oil prices, have led to decreased prices in domestic oil-related industries [5] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The ongoing construction of a unified national market has contributed to a narrowing of price declines in various sectors, with significant improvements noted in coal processing, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [5] - Upgrading industrial structures and releasing consumer potential have led to price increases in high-end manufacturing sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In the fourth week of September, the new - home market in the real estate sector heated up while the second - hand home market cooled down. The "Golden September" effect remains to be seen, but the year - on - year central value is positive, and the second - hand home market in first - tier cities has shown some repair after policy relaxation. Land transactions and premiums are at a low level. [2] - On the production side, freight volume in the industrial sector remains high, coal consumption per day continues to decline, and the industry's operating rates are differentiated. In the construction industry, cement supply and demand have slightly recovered, black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has significantly increased. [2] - In terms of external demand, throughput year - on - year remains high, and freight rates have generally decreased month - on - month but recovered year - on - year. [2] - In the consumption sector, travel enthusiasm remains resilient, automobile consumption is basically flat, and National Day travel orders are booming. [2] - In terms of prices, crude oil is significantly affected by supply and geopolitical factors, black - series prices are generally strong, and copper prices have risen due to supply - expectation disturbances. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Consumption - Travel enthusiasm is differentiated. Subway travel has decreased, the congestion delay index has increased, and flight operation rates are lower than those of the same period last year. [3][7] - Automobile consumption is basically flat, textile consumption has recovered, and express delivery collection volume is at a high level. [3][8] - The National Day travel flow and orders are booming. New - type and cross - border tourism are on the rise, and consumption and prices may increase. [3][9] 2. Real Estate - New - home transaction heat has increased, with third - tier cities leading in structure. Second - hand home market heat has declined, and high - level cities' second - hand home markets have slightly cooled down. [6][11] - Second - hand home listing prices and volumes have both decreased. [6][12] - Land market premiums and transaction volumes are at a low level. [6][12] - Last week, real estate policies continued to strengthen on the demand side, including measures in Shanghai and Dongguan. [13] 3. Production - Coal consumption per day has decreased, hydropower generation remains high, and coal prices have increased. [14][15] - Construction industry funds in place have increased year - on - year, with a differentiation between housing construction and non - housing construction funds. [16] - Cement supply and demand have increased, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, inventory has decreased, and prices are differentiated. Asphalt operating rate has increased, and prices have risen. PVC operating rate has increased, and styrene operating rate has decreased. [16][17] - Freight volume heat continues, and operating rates are differentiated between upstream and downstream. [18] 4. Construction Industry - Construction industry construction funds have increased year - on - year. [16] - Cement supply and demand have improved, with demand stronger than supply, inventory has increased, and prices have risen. Black supply and demand are weak, and asphalt operating rate has increased year - on - year. [4][16][17] 5. External Demand - Port cargo throughput and container throughput remain resilient. [4][19] - Freight rates: RJ/CRB year - on - year growth rate has decreased, BDI has recovered, international route freight rates have weakened, and domestic import freight rates have increased month - on - month. [4][19][20] - South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September and Vietnam's exports in the first half of September have shown positive year - on - year growth. [4][19] - The preliminary values of the US Markit manufacturing and service PMI in September have declined, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly fallen into the contraction range. [4][20] 6. Prices - The agricultural product index has increased, while the domestic Nanhua industrial product index and the external RJ/CRB index have decreased. [5] - Crude oil, coke, rebar, glass, and non - ferrous metal prices have increased, and iron ore prices have slightly decreased. [5][22][23]