证券研究报告 固收视角 沥青开工率上行，工业商品价格上涨 华泰研究 2025 年 9 月 29 日│中国内地 张继强 吴宇航* 研究员 SAC No. S0570518110002 SFC No. AMB145 zhangjiqiang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 SAC No. S0570521090004 wuyuhang@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 吴靖*，PhD 研究员 SAC No. S0570523070006 wujing018437@htsc.com 李梓豪* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124060040 lizihao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 高频数据核心观点 1）出行：出行热度有所分化。地铁出行有所下行，拥堵延时指数有所上行；航班执飞率低于去年同期水平。 2）商品消费：汽车消费热度基本持平；纺织消费有所修复；快递揽收高位运行。 3）旅游数据：国庆假期出行人流量或创历史新高，各平台相关预定数据延续高增长，新型旅游与跨境游上升明显， 消费与价格亦有走高迹象。 2、地产：地产成交表现分化，房价 ...

从基金十大重仓股角度 截至发稿，张文龙累计任职时间2年58天，现任基金资产总规模12.21亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 68.47%， 任职期间最差基金回报35.01%。 资料显示，西部矿业股份有限公司位于青海省西宁市海湖新区文逸路4号西矿·海湖商务中心1号楼，成 立日期2000年12月28日，上市日期2007年7月12日，公司主营业务涉及主要从事铜、铅、锌、铁等基本 有色金属、黑色金属的采选、冶炼、贸易等业务。主营业务收入构成为：销售商品99.70%，利息、手 续费及佣金0.27%，提供服务0.03%。 数据显示，华商基金旗下1只基金重仓西部矿业。华商上游产业股票A（005161）二季度减持67.42万 股，持有股数154.08万股，占基金净值比例为6.43%，位居第三大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 120.18万元。连续4天上涨期间浮盈赚取394.44万元。 华商上游产业股票A（005161）成立日期2017年12月27日，最新规模1.96亿。今年以来收益43.81%，同 类排名943/4221；近一年收益38.53%，同类排名2027/3836；成立以来收益227.61%。 华商上游产业股票A（005 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term) [1] - Bearish: Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel (long - term), Black Metal, Soda Ash, Pig, Container Shipping to Europe [1] - Neutral: Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel (short - term), Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coal, Pulp, Log, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Pure Benzene Styrene, PE, PVC, PP [1] Core Views - The market trading volume has shrunk but remains above 2 trillion this week. With numerous macro events, investors should control risks in stock index positions and focus on adjusting and going long [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September supports the gold price, while the Fed's interest - rate meeting affects the prices of other commodities such as copper, aluminum, etc [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Control risks in positions and adjust to go long [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Precious metals - Gold: Bullish, supported by the approaching Fed rate cut in September [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, but beware of increased volatility [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pressured by the approaching Fed meeting, but the downside is expected to be limited [1] - Aluminum: At risk of correction due to some long - position profit - taking [1] - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited [1] - Zinc: At risk of short - term correction due to increasing social inventories [1] - Nickel: Short - term shock is strong, but more news is needed to break through upwards. Long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term shock is strong, but long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] Industrial silicon and related products - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, and terminal installation willingness is low [1] - Polysilicon: There are expectations of production cuts [1] - Lithium carbonate: The expected resumption of production in a lithium mine and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Black metals - Threaded steel: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to threaded steel [1] - Iron ore: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1] - Black metal: Supply surplus pressure persists, and the price is under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1] - Soda ash: Weak reality, large supply surplus pressure, and price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: The bottom support is relatively strong, and the price is expected to rise in the future. Consider partial profit - taking for long positions [1] - Coke: Bullish, with similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The flood in Malaysia's Sabah state brings supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to go long or buy out - of - the - money call options [1] - Soybean oil: The de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider going long on volatility [1] - Rapeseed oil: Consider the positive spread strategy of contract 11 - 1 [1] - Cotton: New cotton is expected to be abundant, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - Sugar: The price is expected to be weak in shock, but the short - term downside is limited [1] - Corn: The C01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal: The overall expectation is neutral, and the cost side provides support [1] Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1] - Fuel oil: Similar to crude oil [1] - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, and the number of warehouse receipts is significantly reduced compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: The market is in shock. Pay attention to inventory de - stocking and autumn equipment maintenance [1] - PTA: Production increases, the basis drops rapidly, and the downstream polyester operating rate rises to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis strengthens, but the new device brings pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts weakens [1] - Pure benzene styrene: Supply increases, and the domestic import pressure of pure benzene rises [1] - PE: The price is in shock and weak [1] - PVC: The supply pressure increases, and the price is in shock and weak [1] - PP: The peak - season demand is not met, and the inventory accumulates [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with urban areas down 0.3% and rural areas down 0.6%[11] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, while non-food prices increased by 0.5%[11] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, indicating steady demand growth[15] Group 2: PPI Insights - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[11] - PPI showed a month-on-month improvement, ending an eight-month streak of negative growth[21] - Major industries, except for gas, pharmaceuticals, and food, experienced price improvements or recoveries[23] Group 3: Economic Implications - The low CPI and improving PPI create space for more aggressive macroeconomic policies, including active fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policies[32] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with CPI underperforming seasonal expectations and PPI showing signs of recovery[30] Group 4: Risks - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Modern Investment's commodity trading revenue constitutes approximately 56% of its total revenue based on the semi-annual report data [1] - The company operates in various sectors of commodity trading, including non-ferrous metals, precious metals, ferrous metals, coal, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's announcement of talks with Iran eases risk aversion, and the market expects the Fed to resume its rate - cut cycle, weakening the short - term US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, policies to support consumption and a relaxation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index rebounds in the short - term, treasury bonds are volatile at a high level, and different commodity sectors show different short - term trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as finance, military, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market rises. With policy stimulus and a reduction in geopolitical risks, the short - term trading strategy is to cautiously go long [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are volatile at a high level in the short - term, and the recommended strategy is to cautiously wait and see [3]. Precious Metals - After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the safe - haven demand for precious metals weakened. Hawkish remarks from Powell and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, along with a deterioration in US consumer confidence, have put short - term pressure on precious metals [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel decline slightly. Demand continues to weaken, but supply is unlikely to decrease significantly due to expanding profits. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decline slightly. With rising iron - water production and inventory replenishment by steel mills, and high supply expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices are flat. Demand is okay in the short - term, but supply may increase. With potential supply disruptions in manganese mines, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and prices may decline if oil prices fall [8]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: It oscillates strongly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Glass**: It also oscillates strongly. Supply is for just - in - time production, demand is weak, and profits are low. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Due to difficulties in US - EU trade negotiations and potential tariffs, along with high production and potential demand weakening, the short - term trend is uncertain, and future negotiations and tariff policies need to be monitored [10]. - **Aluminum**: With eased geopolitical tensions, the price rises. However, inventory accumulation may signal a turning point, and demand may weaken in the future [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, weak demand is offset by tight scrap aluminum supply, so the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. - **Tin**: The price rises due to slow mine复产 in Myanmar and tight domestic supply. Despite being in the off - season with weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rebounds and oscillates. Supply increases while demand weakens, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It moves sideways. With weak supply and demand and a rebound in coal prices, the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: It remains weak. With limited room for a decline in supply and downward pressure on demand, the supply - demand contradiction may intensify if the photovoltaic industry cuts production [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's pressure on Iran and a decline in EIA inventory keep the oil price oscillating in the short - term [15]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the oil price and oscillates. With improved shipping but increasing inventory, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [15]. - **PX**: It has strong cost support but faces a risk of decline. It will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. - **PTA**: The basis remains strong, demand is weakening, and there is downward pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: With stable overseas production and low basis, the short - term de - stocking drive is low, and it will run weakly and stably [16]. - **Short - fiber**: It will follow the decline in the oil price and oscillate weakly in the medium - term, with high inventory and weak demand [16]. - **Methanol**: The price may decline in the short - term but is expected to oscillate strongly due to potential supply shortages [16]. - **PP**: With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: With stable production and demand and falling oil prices, the price is expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price falls due to the impact of soybean oil and crude oil, and favorable weather in the US Midwest may further pressure the price [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply - demand situation is gradually easing, and the price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and import supply [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: The previous rally may reverse due to falling crude oil prices and changes in palm oil supply and demand [18]. - **Corn**: With changes in inventory and market supply, the price may consolidate at a high level in the short - term [18]. - **Hogs**: The market has a low expectation for price increases in July, and the price may decline in the short - term, with continued selling pressure on the LH09 contract [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed can wait to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran reduced global risk aversion. The US dollar index weakened in the short - term, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, China's consumption growth was strong in May, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the dovish policy statements of Fed officials supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised; for the commodity sector, black metals may fluctuate at a low level, and cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals may have intensified fluctuations, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Powell's statement and the Israel - Iran cease - fire led to a weaker US dollar index and increased global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic situation and external factors supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, different investment suggestions were given for stock indices, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continued to rise. China's economic situation, the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, and Fed officials' dovish statements supported domestic risk appetite. The market's trading logic focused on multiple factors, and short - term cautious long positions were recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The Israel - Iran cease - fire reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals, causing prices to decline. The Fed's stance and economic data influenced the market. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, precious metals were under short - term pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices affected the market. Although demand was not significantly worse and inventory was decreasing, supply increased, and the market was expected to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. Iron ore supply was expected to remain high in the second - quarter peak season, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, with a possible mid - term decline [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were stable. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short - term. With production changes in different regions, the overall alloy output had little change. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and prices might decline if oil prices weakened [7][8]. Soda Ash - On Tuesday, soda ash prices were weakly fluctuating. Supply was increasing but at a slower pace, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to be under pressure and fluctuate within a range in the short - term [8]. Glass - On Tuesday, glass prices were strongly fluctuating. Supply and demand were both weak, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - Ferrous and New Energy Copper - Fed officials' stance changes affected the market. Copper production was high, demand had a marginal weakening risk, and inventory growth had slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME affected imports. Future market trends depended on US negotiations and tariff policies [10]. Aluminum - The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in aluminum prices. Inventory accumulation indicated a possible turning point, and demand had a marginal weakening risk [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Entering the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. Tin - Supply was tight, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. Demand was in the off - season, and orders declined. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside due to various factors [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The weighted contract of lithium carbonate rebounded, but supply increased while demand weakened, and inventory was high. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market was in a sideways trend. Supply and demand were both weak, and prices were slightly affected by coal prices. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [13]. Polysilicon - The market was weak. Supply was at a low level, and demand pressure was increasing. If the photovoltaic industry increased production cuts in the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction would intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Trump's statements and the cease - fire agreement made the market focus on potential supply surpluses, and oil prices were expected to remain weakly fluctuating [14]. Asphalt - Oil price declines led to lower asphalt prices. Although inventory removal was slow, demand was approaching the peak season. It was expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [14]. PX - Crude oil price drops led to PX price declines, but the downward space was limited. Tight supply was expected to continue, and it would follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. PTA - The PTA basis remained stable, but crude oil price changes might lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester开工, inventory pressure was increasing, and prices might face upward pressure later [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Crude oil price drops and reduced supply risks affected ethylene glycol. Inventory removal slowed down, and prices were expected to be suppressed in the short - term [15]. Short - Fiber - Crude oil price drops led to short - fiber price declines. It followed the polyester sector and was expected to fluctuate strongly. With high inventory, it would wait for the peak - season demand [16]. Methanol - The methanol market declined, but supply shortages and profit repairs limited the downward space. It was expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [17]. PP - PP prices declined. With increasing production and weakening demand, prices were expected to fall, and the development of the Israel - Iran conflict should be monitored [17]. LLDPE - Polyethylene prices adjusted. With stable production and demand, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the market was expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT soybeans declined due to the influence of soybean oil and crude oil. Favorable weather in the US Midwest was expected [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - opening rate of oil mills led to a gradually looser supply - demand situation for soybean meal. The market sentiment was weakly fluctuating, and the domestic basis was expected to remain unchanged [18]. Palm Oil - No detailed content provided for palm oil analysis. Live Hogs - The expected low pig prices until August - September might lead to continuous selling pressure for the LH09 contract [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No such content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. However, the market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Overseas Situation**: The US "steel tariff" may be implemented today, and the tariff game and the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have increased geopolitical risks and global risk aversion. The market is waiting for negotiations between the US and its trading partners, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an overall increase in global risk appetite [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; government bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to cautiously go long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise slightly, driven by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and football concepts. China's May PMI data has rebounded, and the economy is expanding, which helps boost domestic risk appetite. Although the US has raised steel and aluminum tariffs, the expected call between Chinese and US leaders this week also boosts domestic risk appetite. The market is currently focused on US trade policies and trade negotiation progress, which may increase market volatility. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - Precious metals fluctuated and declined on Tuesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar. COMEX gold futures for August delivery fell 0.6% to $3377 per ounce. US labor data showed signs of cooling. The market is awaiting the employment report on Friday, with an expected increase of 130,000 non-farm payrolls in May and a possible rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. Geopolitical risks and policy - related games may increase the volatility of precious metals. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and it is advisable to look for long - term investment opportunities after periodic corrections [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to decline on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. The US raising steel tariffs has intensified market pessimism. The market is entering the off - season, and iron ore production has declined for three consecutive weeks, reflecting weak demand. However, steel production is still increasing due to good profits. The steel market will remain weak in the short term, and it is advisable to consider inter - period positive spreads [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices declined on Tuesday. Although iron ore production has declined, steel mills are still profitable, and there are differences in the market's expectations for the decline path of iron ore production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals have increased this week, and this trend is expected to continue in the second - quarter peak season. FMG has postponed the production of the Iron Bridge project. Iron ore port inventories are decreasing. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Silicon manganese and silicon iron spot prices declined on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair as the production of major steel products has increased slightly. The price of silicon manganese in the north and south markets is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market is cautious. The production of silicon manganese has increased slightly, mainly in Inner Mongolia and Guilin. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton for 72 - grade and 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. The raw material price of blue charcoal is weak, and downstream procurement is sluggish. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Canadian wildfires have disrupted oil supply, offsetting the impact of OPEC+ production increases. The fire in Alberta, Canada, has shut down 350,000 barrels per day of heavy oil production, more than three - quarters of OPEC+'s recent production increase. US job vacancies also support oil prices. Geopolitical risks are rising due to the US - Iran nuclear agreement issue. Oil prices will be more volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to monitor the progress of the Iran nuclear agreement negotiation and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices rise, asphalt prices have rebounded after a decline. Demand has recovered to a limited extent. The basis in major consumption areas has declined, and the futures structure has weakened. After the profit recovery, production has increased, and inventory depletion has stagnated. As the peak demand season approaches, it is advisable to monitor inventory depletion. Asphalt prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, following oil prices [7]. - **PX**: The external price of PX remains high, and the PXN spread is around 270. Short - term maintenance is relatively high, and with the support of oil prices, PX will maintain a strong and volatile trend. However, after the reduction of polyester downstream production, PTA may reduce long - term contracts, which may affect PX demand in the future. There is a slight risk of a decline in PX prices later [7]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis remains at a high level of +210, but the 9 - 1 spread has dropped by 50 points. After the restart of some devices, more devices will end maintenance in June, and supply will increase. Downstream production cuts will continue, and PTA is likely to accumulate inventory in June. It is advisable to enter the market on the right - hand side when the spread declines [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal - based supply of ethylene glycol will gradually recover, and inventory will decrease in the short term, but it needs to reach 500,000 tons. Downstream production cuts have a negative impact, and low imports limit supply growth. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for a rebound [9]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices are in a weak and volatile pattern. Terminal orders have recovered less than expected, and short - fiber prices have weakened. Downstream production is expected to decrease in the short term, and orders from the US may slow down. Although short - fiber inventory has decreased, it is necessary to monitor the sustainability of spinning mill operations. It will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - **Methanol**: The Jiangsu Maritime Bureau has restricted ships over 25 years old from berthing in the Yangtze River, which has strengthened the basis in June. On June 3, 2025, the daily loss of Chinese methanol plants due to maintenance or production cuts was 17,050 tons. Some plants have resumed production, and some have started new maintenance. Import arrivals have increased, and port and inland inventories are rising slightly. Although low inventory supports prices in the short term, with increasing supply, inventory is expected to rise faster, and prices may decline in the long term. It is advisable to monitor import arrivals and wait for the situation to become clear [10]. - **PP**: The polypropylene market is consolidating within a range. The output of PP is increasing, and new device production is being realized. Supply pressure will increase from June to July, while demand is in the off - season transition. With weak oil prices, the price center is likely to move down. It is advisable to monitor device maintenance and oil price fluctuations [11]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is adjusting. The price has declined in different regions. The industrial inventory is okay, but demand is in the off - season. Supply pressure has been relieved due to previous device maintenance, but devices are expected to restart, and new devices will be put into production in June. With weak oil prices, polyethylene prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices rose above $9600 overnight. The market expects the US to impose a 50% tariff on copper after raising tariffs on steel and aluminum. The copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate TC has continued to decline, but the decline has slowed. Copper concentrate port inventories are high, and TC may stabilize soon. Copper production is at a high level, and there is no incentive to cut production. Demand is approaching the off - season, and there is a risk of a marginal decline in demand. If production remains high and demand weakens, inventory will increase. It will fluctuate in the short term [12][13]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum prices fluctuated overnight. The US raising aluminum tariffs will increase non - US supply. Aluminum production is at a high level, and Russian aluminum imports have increased significantly. Aluminum demand has exceeded expectations from March to May, but this growth rate is unsustainable. Demand is expected to decline marginally, and the export rush will slow down the decline. Aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, and it may fall to around 500,000 tons at the end of May. There is no major negative factor in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [13]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the domestic tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has dropped by nearly 2%. There are rumors of the resumption of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, but these rumors have not been confirmed and may change. On the demand side, the integrated circuit industry is growing rapidly, PVC production is high, but terminal electronics are weak, and the market is entering the off - season. After the price decline, downstream enterprises have replenished inventory, and inventory has decreased by 1261 tons. Tin prices have stabilized in the short term, but high - tariff risks, resumption of production expectations, and a marginal decline in demand will put pressure on prices [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise in US crude oil prices by nearly 2% has boosted CBOT soybean and corn futures. The possible meeting between US and Chinese leaders this week has restored market risk appetite. The weather in US soybean - producing areas is stable with high temperatures, and there is no continuous weather premium. CBOT soybeans are expected to trade within a range in the short term [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is expected to recover, and the weak basis will be realized. There is no strong driving force for the rise of US soybeans, so soybean meal lacks a stable upward support. For rapeseed meal, the low inventory of Canadian rapeseed and potential drought risks in the new season have tightened domestic rapeseed imports, and the supply outlook is uncertain. Rapeseed meal is in the peak demand season, and port inventory may decrease. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. If the USDA report strengthens the expectation of a US soybean harvest, soybean meal premiums may decline. Rapeseed meal has relatively strong support, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal may narrow [15]. - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound in the crude oil market has driven up the prices of US soybean oil and oilseeds. The domestic market has risen with the expected increase in costs. BMD palm oil futures rose, supported by improved export demand. Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in May. After India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oil, palm oil futures rose in the Chinese market, supported by improved demand prospects [16]. - **Pigs**: After the holiday, the pressure on pig farms to sell pigs is low at the beginning of the month, and demand is in the off - season, resulting in weak supply and demand. As large - scale pig farms increase sales and the market reduces pig weights, pig prices may continue to decline. Pig prices are stable in the short term, and there is a high basis and large discount for near - term contracts. With the position limit for the 07 contract, there may be a price increase for near - term contracts [17][18]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, the concentrated listing of new wheat may replace some corn feed consumption. High inventory and warehouse receipts may put pressure on corn prices in the short term. However, after the wheat harvest, corn demand will recover, imports will decrease, and port inventory will deplete faster. As long as the expectation of a future price increase remains, corn prices will be supported in the short term and may trade within a range [18].

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - April CPI year-on-year remained at -0.1%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[1][11] - April PPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3 percentage points to -2.7%, with a month-on-month change of -0.4%[1][30] - The core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.2%, returning to seasonal levels after two months below seasonal averages[4][18] Group 2: Agricultural and Food Prices - April food CPI month-on-month turned positive, increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 0.2%, driven by improved demand for agricultural products[3][13] - Vegetable prices are expected to remain under pressure due to stable supply and increased demand, with a 6.9% decrease in average wholesale prices from May 1 to May 9 compared to April[3][13] - Pork prices showed a month-on-month increase of 2.8 percentage points to -1.6%, with expectations of recovery due to rising feed and meat prices[3][13] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - May CPI is expected to decrease by approximately -0.2% year-on-year, with a similar month-on-month decline anticipated[5][38] - May PPI is projected to show a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decline, with overall prices expected to remain weak due to low international demand[5][39] - The overall average CPI for 2025 is forecasted to be in the range of 0%-1% year-on-year, while PPI is expected to average between -1% and 2%[5][39] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risks - The core CPI recovery is attributed to demand for precious metal jewelry, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns[4][18] - Risks include potential policy changes and unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices, which could impact inflation forecasts[5][44]