证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-27 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] #海外政治：特朗普宣布罢免理事库克，美联储独立性遭挑战 核心观点：特朗普以涉嫌在抵押贷款申请中存在欺诈行为为由罢免美联 储理事库克，成为 1913 年美联储成立以来首次。当前美联储理事会中沃 勒和鲍曼 2 位理事均由特朗普提名，未来若特朗普提名的新理事米兰能 够获得参议院批准，且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有 4 人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数。罢免消息公布后，市场对未 来更多"特朗普派"的理事就职预期令明年的降息预期升温，而对美联储 独立性和美元信用的担忧则令长端美债利率和黄金价格上行，美元指数 下行。向前看，由于罢免风波前景未明，对美联储独立性的担忧料将持续 发酵，预计黄金价格将阶段性维持高位、美债期限溢价走阔。 风险提示： 特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水平时间过长， 引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20250825：转债市场分歧正在累积 1）在维持整体仓位稳健的基础上 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 珠海冠宇（688772） 2025 年中报点评：手机出货高增业绩符合预 期，折旧年限调整增厚后续利润 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,446 | 11,541 | 14,576 | 16,765 | 19,849 | | 同比（%） | 4.29 | 0.83 | 26.29 | 15.02 | 18.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 344.19 | 430.35 | 651.49 | 1,211.97 | 1,583.61 | | 同比（%） | 278.45 | 25.03 | 51.38 | 86.03 | 30.66 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 1.07 | 1.40 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 62.16 | 49.72 | 32.84 | 17.65 | 13.51 | [T ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Siyuan Electric**: Noted for its strong performance in Q2 and significant order growth - **Shenma Power**: Focused on overseas orders and stock buyback for employee incentives - **XWANDA**: Highlighted for its consumer battery business and market share growth - **Wind Power Sector**: Discussed recent trends in bidding prices and market demand - **Photovoltaic Industry**: Addressed issues related to silicon material storage and policy support - **LianDe Co.**: Recognized for its competitive advantage in the ARDC field - **Tengya Precision**: Mentioned for its robotic products and sales expectations Core Points and Arguments - **Siyuan Electric's Performance**: Q2 results exceeded expectations with significant improvements in both domestic and international orders, despite short-term stock price fluctuations due to foreign ownership limits. The company shows high competitiveness in overseas markets [3][1] - **Shenma Power's Confidence**: The company has seen a continuous rise in overseas orders and announced a stock buyback at a 50% premium to current prices, indicating management's confidence in future growth. It holds a leading position in composite insulation materials globally [4][1] - **XWANDA's Market Position**: The company has successfully onboarded major clients in the consumer battery sector, achieving full production capacity. It is expected to see growth in both consumer and power markets, with its stock currently undervalued [5][1] - **Wind Power Market Trends**: Bidding prices for wind turbines increased by over 20% year-on-year in July, with total bidding volume also rising significantly, indicating robust market demand [6][1][9] - **Photovoltaic Industry Challenges**: The industry faces issues with silicon material storage, but government support is likely to facilitate solutions. Monitoring of energy-saving measures for silicon companies is planned, indicating potential for growth [7][1][19] - **LianDe Co.'s Growth Potential**: The company is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI developments, with projected profits of 250 million yuan this year, making it a promising investment [2][1] - **Tengya Precision's Sales Forecast**: The company anticipates exceeding sales expectations for its robotic products, with a target of over 300,000 units next year, and plans to introduce higher-end products [12][1][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Wind Power Price Recovery**: The implementation of anti-involution measures since 2024 has led to significant improvements in pricing and profitability for wind turbine companies [9][1] - **Yunda's Future Outlook**: Expected recovery in profitability starting Q4 2025, driven by higher domestic wind turbine order prices and a strong order backlog [10][1] - **Robotics Industry Developments**: The industry is seeing positive changes, with specific companies like Tengya Precision showing promising sales and product development [11][1] - **Electric Vehicle Market Stability**: Despite being a traditional off-season, the EV market remains stable with significant sales growth and a penetration rate of 53%-54% [16][1] - **Lithium Battery and EV Sector Dynamics**: Companies are making significant investments in production capacity for energy storage, indicating a shift in focus to meet growing demand [17][1]

Summary of Zhuhai Guanyu Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhuhai Guanyu - **Industry**: Battery manufacturing, focusing on consumer and power battery segments Key Points Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Zhuhai Guanyu reported revenue of 2.498 billion yuan, a slight decline year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 24 million yuan, compared to a profit of 9 million yuan in the same period last year [4][5][42] - The overall performance was impacted by a seasonal downturn in consumer electronics and a decrease in prices due to falling upstream material costs [5][42] Business Segments - **Consumer Battery Segment**: - Q1 2025 consumer battery shipments were approximately 80 million units, flat year-on-year, with a self-supply rate of about 40% [5] - The company expects Q2 shipments to grow by 40%-50% quarter-on-quarter, with an annual target of 120 million units [6] - **Power Battery Segment**: - Revenue in Q1 2025 was around 400 million yuan, more than doubling year-on-year, driven primarily by the Zhikang and drone businesses [5][6] - The power segment is expected to generate 600 million yuan in Q2, with annual revenue projected to be double that of the first half [6][29] Growth Drivers - The start-stop battery business is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, with significant orders from domestic and international clients [7] - The drone business, primarily serving DJI, is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in total revenue this year, also doubling year-on-year [7][33] Technological Advancements - The company is making progress in smart wearable devices and robotics, leveraging its soft-pack technology and small battery solutions for advantages in energy density and weight [8] - The company aims to capture 30% of the smartphone battery market, up from the current 8%-10%, through technological iterations [3][35] Margin and Cost Management - Q1 gross margin declined due to seasonal factors, increased contribution from lower-margin businesses, and lagging cost pass-through from export tax adjustments [11][12] - The company expects improvement in margins in Q2 as production ramps up and costs stabilize [11] International Expansion - The construction of a factory in Malaysia is progressing well, expected to be operational within 1 to 1.5 years, which will help mitigate export costs to the U.S. due to lower tariffs [9][13][14] - The company is also exploring opportunities in Mexico and India, although these facilities are smaller in scale [13] Market Trends and Customer Demand - The company is well-positioned to meet domestic demand despite trade tensions, with a focus on local suppliers [10][9] - The demand for high-capacity batteries is increasing, with a trend towards larger batteries (6,000 to 7,000 mAh) in the market [36] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook for Q2 and the full year, expecting significant growth driven by domestic demand and new product launches [6][43] - The focus will remain on enhancing market share in both consumer and power battery segments while managing costs effectively [46] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from fluctuating material prices and the impact of export tax policies, which it is addressing through strategic cost management and communication with clients [24][25] Conclusion - Zhuhai Guanyu is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on growth in both consumer and power battery segments, leveraging technological advancements and international expansion to enhance its competitive position. The outlook for the upcoming quarters remains optimistic, supported by strong demand and strategic initiatives.