光期研究 碳 酸 锂 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 6 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 碳酸锂：供给扰动 需求或超预期 p 2 碳酸锂：供给扰动 需求或超预期 总 结 1、供给：周度产量环比增加1638吨至21822吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加1460吨至13484吨，锂云母提锂环比减少150吨至2812吨，盐湖提锂环比增加250吨至3290吨，回 收提锂环比增加78吨至2236吨。 2、需求：周度三元材料产量环比减少664吨至15617吨，库存环比减少533吨至17234吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比增加300吨至89150吨，库存环比增加459吨至92556吨；周 度产量环比增加11.6%至26GWh，其中铁锂电池环比增加11.1%至20GWh，三元电池产量环比增加13.2%至6GWh。终端，乘联分会预计节后新能源车整车企业的降价促 销能力下降，价格弹性偏弱导致消费者心态趋于谨慎，短期内或抑制购车需求的正常释放。价格反内卷是长期利好，有助于改善购车观望情绪，引导产业消费健康发展； 据CNESA1月新增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of capital risk aversion has increased, and the market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation effect of macro - policies, marginal changes in costs and supply - demand, capacity release progress, as well as capital and sentiment [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 147,220 yuan/ton with a narrow - range shock. The trading volume dropped significantly to 311,900 lots, and the open interest slightly increased to 359,900 lots. The net short position of the main capital continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly month - on - month. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,030 to 34,114 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 153,000 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt factories had a strong price - holding sentiment and a weak willingness to sell scattered orders. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and mainly adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices. The overall market inquiry and transactions were lighter than before [2] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally rose. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%). Except for salt lakes, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The total SMM production was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [3] Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate production increased by 1.0% month - on - month with an increase in inventory accumulation; the ternary production decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and was gradually destocking. The production of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, and the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant differentiation in inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - On the demand side, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax - rebate policies provided multiple incentives to stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：延续区间震荡，聚焦供需边际 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约区间震荡收 164820 元/吨。资金面主力 净空延续，多空比环比下降，仓单微增 245 吨至 30211 吨。现货端，SMM 电碳均价 168000 元/吨。短期市场情绪于博弈特征明显，市场成交呈现分化 态势：上游散单报价有所收缩，出货意愿趋于谨慎；下游材料厂则出于刚 需及二月备货考虑，在价格相对低位时散单采购增加。市场整体询价与成 交活跃度有所提升，供需双方在当前价位下呈阶段性博弈。 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，上周原料市场分化，海外锂辉石持稳微涨，国 内现货锂矿回调。本周 SMM 碳酸锂总周度开工率 49.5%（-1.49%），除盐 湖外，其他工艺开工率均下降；SMM 总产量 21569 吨（-648 吨），环比-2.92%。 需求端结构性分化显著。本周 SMM 铁锂产量环比+1.0%，累库增加；三元 产量环比-1.1%，逐渐去库；上周动力电芯产量微降，截至 1 月 18 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率上升至 55.6%，储能电芯排产小幅增长托底需求，表现 强 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience high - level shock adjustment, with a focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, with an intraday decline of 6.56% and closing at 165,680 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 490 tons to 28,646 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 181,500 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market showed a differentiated trend. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore generally declined. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the total output was 22,217 tons (-388 tons) [4] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation. SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased production and inventory, the output of power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were strong with extremely low inventory [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the four - place sample of SMM increased by 2% (+860 tons) week - on - week, the sample weekly inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons), the total inventory days were 27.8 days, and the inventory structure was significantly differentiated [4] Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term [5] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy storage in the "15th Five - Year Plan", and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive effect to support the long - term balance of supply and demand [5] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, with a focus on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range and closed at 168,780 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 230 tons to 28,886 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 164,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by over 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the operating rates of various process routes decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total production of SMM was 22,217 tons (-388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [2] Demand - side Situation - There was a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM iron - lithium and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of SMM new - energy vehicle sales rose to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] Inventory Situation - The sample social inventory in four regions of SMM increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was destocked again, decreasing slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 27.8 days, with the upstream and downstream inventory days increasing to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days in other links decreasing to 13.1 days. The inventory structure showed significant differentiation [2] Macro - policy Situation - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. Industrial plans such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year" plan for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize in a volatile manner, and investors should focus on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile downward trend, hitting the daily limit of 146,200 yuan/ton multiple times, with an intraday decline of about 9%. Trading volume increased to 592,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 416,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly to 27,500 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 11,800 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, the upstream's reluctance to sell increased, with a low willingness to sell scattered orders, and some manufacturers suspended quotations and actively stockpiled. The downstream's purchasing willingness increased due to lower prices and rigid demand. Overall market inquiries and traders' willingness to sell both increased [3] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%). The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling decreased slightly. The total output was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply stabilized at a high level [4] Demand - There was significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly, and inventory was destocked. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [4] Inventory - Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples was destocked again, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 13.8 days, showing significant inventory structure differentiation [4] Macroeconomic Policy - On the demand side, in 2026, multiple incentives such as car trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, and battery export tax - rebate policies will stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve recycling thresholds and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic lithium carbonate supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term [5] - Industrial planning, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan and the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, along with a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference, will form a coordinated positive impact, supporting long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts will indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The industry will experience range - bound oscillations, with the strong game - playing pattern continuing. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in costs, supply, and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract showed wide - range oscillations, with prices fluctuating between 155,000 yuan/ton and 173,400 yuan/ton, closing at 161,940 yuan/ton. Trading volume slightly shrank to 589,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 453,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 27,200 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 163,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt manufacturers preferentially fulfilled long - term agreements, and their willingness to sell spot orders was low, with some manufacturers quoting high prices. The proportion of spot purchases by downstream material manufacturers increased during long - term agreement negotiations. The weakening of the afternoon market led to a recovery in inquiry and transactions, and overall transactions moderately increased [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% month - on - month, continuing the upward trend and strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling increased slightly. SMM's total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [4]. - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory destocking. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while SMM new energy vehicle sales and penetration reached new highs. Slight growth in the production scheduling of energy - storage cells supported demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [4]. Policy Impact - In 2026, subsidies for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly provided favorable support for long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may exacerbate short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export rush demand [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of finished steel is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with a focus on shock consolidation [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the market will focus on market games and marginal supply and demand, with a view of range-bound fluctuations [1][4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - In the Yunnan-Guizhou region, short-process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid-to-late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, one of the six short-process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills will stop production around mid-January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Yesterday, finished steel prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continue to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, with an intraday amplitude of over 13%. The main contract opened high and moved high, then quickly fell back, hitting the daily limit of 117,400 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of over 8%, closing at 118,820 yuan/ton. Trading activity significantly rebounded, with trading volume increasing to 689,000 lots, and positions continued to shrink to 512,000 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, indicating a looser market supply expectation [2] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 118,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was -820 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. In the market transaction, due to a slight improvement in the rigid demand procurement gap, the price center continued to move up with rigid demand transactions [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month-on-month, with the supply side steadily releasing but at a slower pace. On the demand side, short-term demand slightly decreased, while long-term demand was firmly supported. SMM data showed that last week, the output of ternary and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% month-on-month respectively, and inventories decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% month-on-month respectively, continuing to decline. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% month-on-month and increased by 39.1% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales increased by 7.22% month-on-month, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% month-on-month, showing a high year-on-year increase [3] - In terms of inventory, last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% month-on-month and increased by 1.97% year-on-year, with the de-stocking slope slowing down. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month-on-month and 27.30% year-on-year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% month-on-month, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year-on-year, indicating that the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices weakened marginally [3] - Policy-wise, the short-term regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has implemented measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, combined with the focus on energy storage in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the continuation of new energy vehicle trade-in subsidies to support long-term supply and demand. With the release of market speculation sentiment and increased regulatory control, the futures price may maintain a range-bound consolidation [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity, showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate is expected to remain in a state of tight inventory and operate at a high level within the range. The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the lithium carbonate is expected to operate at a high level, and investors should avoid chasing up and focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region stopped production for maintenance during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected resumption of production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and the total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest plan to stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices. The future outlook is for volatile and consolidating operation, and the focus should be on macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, with trading volume significantly reduced to 429,000 lots and open interest reduced to 577,000 lots. The net short position in the main contract continued, and the registered warehouse receipts continued to increase. The average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 111,900 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 18,620 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures market has higher expectations than the spot market [2] - In the market transaction, most upstream lithium salt producers focus on long - term contracts, with few spot sales. Downstream material producers are cautiously waiting and watching. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have stopped production for maintenance, and some enterprises are forced to accept high - priced goods to maintain production due to rigid demand, continuously pushing up the spot price center. The trading volume of traders is light [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening the cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% from the previous period, with a steady but slowing supply growth. On the demand side, the short - term demand decreased slightly, while the long - term demand was firmly supported. The output of ternary and lithium iron batteries decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% respectively, continuing the destocking trend. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% from the previous period and increased by 39.1% year - on - year. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 7.22% from the previous period, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% from the previous period, showing a high year - on - year growth [3] - In terms of inventory, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% from the previous period and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, with a slowing destocking slope. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% from the previous period and decreased by 27.30% year - on - year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The social inventory in four places increased by 3.30% from the previous period, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year - on - year. The tight inventory pattern remains unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices is weakening at the margin [3] - In terms of policy, the short - term supervision tightening is clear. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the series of arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive impact. Coupled with the key points of energy storage in the 14th Five - Year Plan and the continuation of the new energy vehicle trade - in subsidy, they support the long - term supply and demand. The market sentiment forms a positive cycle of "expectation - price - sentiment", which is strong but fragile, and risks such as the commissioning of new production lines, insufficient downstream acceptance, and over - bought correction should be vigilant. The future outlook is for operating at a high level, and investors should avoid chasing up and focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand. The focus should be on the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand and acceptance of high prices, the destocking slope of sample inventory, and capital and sentiment [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [3][4]. - **碳酸锂**: The main contract of lithium carbonate is in a high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid the risk of chasing up. Focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **成材** - **Production Impact**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - **New House Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3][4]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment. The price has reached a new low, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. - **View and Attention Points**: The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. **碳酸锂** - **Futures Market**: Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with trading volume increasing to 949,000 lots and positions decreasing to 647,400 lots. The long - short ratio continued to rise, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The registered warehouse receipts increased. The basis of the main contract was - 23,220 yuan/ton (a near - one - year low), and the futures price deviated significantly from the fundamentals due to capital speculation [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of electric carbon was 101,500 yuan/ton and continued to rise. Upstream lithium salt factories mainly focused on long - term contracts with few spot orders; downstream material factories were on the sidelines at high prices, mainly for rigid demand procurement and long - term contract supply; traders had light transactions [3]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, raw material prices rose, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate both increased by 0.21% week - on - week, with a steady supply release but a slowdown in growth. On the demand side, short - term demand decreased slightly while long - term resilience remained unchanged. The production of ternary and iron - lithium decreased week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 30.34% year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales fluctuated significantly in the short term, with a stable month - on - month penetration rate and a high year - on - year increase [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing to decline but at a slower pace. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was a phased inventory build - up in other links, and inventory shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Social inventory showed a phased build - up, with a year - on - year decrease of 54.71%. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4]. - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: Regulatory tightening is clear. Measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the promotion of the exit of backward production capacity in 2025 will intensify market fluctuations in the short term. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern. The market sentiment forms a "expectation - price - sentiment" cycle, and risks such as insufficient downstream acceptance and over - bought pullbacks need to be vigilant [5]. - **View and Attention Points**: The view is high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid chasing up. Focus on marginal changes in supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the slope of sample inventory decline, and capital and sentiment [5].