晨报 碳酸锂 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货走势剧烈波动，日内振幅超 13%。主力合约高开 高走，随后盘面快速回落，触及跌停板 11.74 万元/吨，日内跌幅超过 8%， 收至 118820 元/吨。成交活跃度 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：库存偏紧格局延续 区间高位运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 观点：高位运行，规避追涨风险，聚焦供需边际 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策落地、产能释放进度、下游需求韧性及 高价接受度、样本库存去化斜率、资金与情绪 重要声明： 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：高位震荡，规避追涨风险 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 观点：高位震荡，谨慎观望，规避追涨风险，聚焦供需边际 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 以伊冲突 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货价格呈区间震荡格局，主力合约运行于 10.9 万至 11.65 万元/吨之间，盘中一度大涨近 5.78%，最高触及 116460 元/吨，成交和持 仓同步回升，主力净空格局延续。盘面大幅上涨仍主要受资金情绪影响。现货端， SMM 数据显示电碳均价 99000 元/吨，价格持续上行，主力合约基差-15380 元/ 吨。成交层面，市场活跃度持续下降，仅少数企业刚需采购支撑成交，贸易以点 价交易为主。目前，上下游企业间的年度长协谈判仍在持续博弈中。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商 ...

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate futures prices have been on the rise, surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 30% [1] - The primary driver of this price increase is the unexpected growth in demand, shifting the market supply-demand balance from a surplus at the beginning of the year to a more balanced state, with expectations of tight balance continuing into 2026 [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Demand - Despite expectations of subsidy reductions for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in 2026, demand remains robust, with NEV sales accounting for over 50% of total new car sales in October [2] - In October, NEV production and sales reached 1.772 million and 1.715 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 21.1% and 20% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, NEV production reached 12.992 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with expectations of exceeding 16.8 million units for the entire year, reflecting a growth rate of over 30% [2] Group 3: Battery Production Growth - The production of power battery cells has been on a continuous upward trend since August, with October production reaching 124.87 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.9% [2] - Cumulatively, from January to October, the total production of power battery cells was 985.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44%, with expectations of exceeding 1,250 GWh for the year, reflecting a growth rate of over 43% [2] Group 4: Energy Storage Industry Outlook - The energy storage battery sector remains optimistic, with expectations of 40% to 50% growth in the global energy storage industry in 2026, as indicated by leading companies [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, global energy storage cell shipments reached 410.45 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 98.5%, with projections for total shipments in 2025 to exceed 560 GWh [3] - Preliminary estimates suggest that global energy storage cell shipments will approach 800 GWh in 2026, maintaining a high growth trajectory [3] Group 5: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with total inventory as of November 20 at 118,420 tons, a decrease of 2,052 tons from the previous month [5] - Compared to the peak inventory of 143,170 tons earlier in the year, there has been a cumulative reduction of 24,750 tons [5] - In the medium to long term, the tight supply-demand balance is expected to support a steady increase in lithium carbonate prices, despite potential short-term volatility due to market sentiment and policy adjustments [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: In November, downstream production scheduling increases slightly month - on - month, lithium carbonate production decreases slightly, and imports rebound slightly. Supply growth is lower than demand, and inventory depletion is expected to accelerate. The inventory - to - sales ratio in November is expected to further decline. The price will remain high next week. Some funds flow in to layout long - term long positions, and the 2605 contract is more popular [6]. - Medium - term: In December, demand enters the off - season and is difficult to grow significantly. Overseas mine shipments increase, which may ease the tight supply - demand situation. After the production scheduling in mid - to - late November is more certain, the market may start to trade the marginal loosening of supply - demand. The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo does not support the price to reach new highs [6]. - Futures strategy: If funds speculate on the improvement of supply - demand driven by energy storage next year and push the price close to the previous high, short - hedging can be considered. Pay attention to the spot trading situation next week. For unilateral trading, there is still short - term rebound momentum, and consider laying out short positions when entering the previous high pressure range; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options to cooperate with the profit - taking of futures long positions [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Demand Analysis New Energy Vehicles - China: In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, sales were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The power battery cell production from January to October increased by 44.5% year - on - year to 985.5 GWh, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month in November [12]. - Global: From January to September 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million, while US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, an 86% year - on - year increase [17]. Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage orders are strong due to "export rush" demand and中标 projects in the Middle East, South America, and Australia. From January to October, China's energy storage battery cell production was 409.4 GWh, a 55% year - on - year increase. The inventory of energy storage battery cells is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended. Production in November and December is expected to maintain positive month - on - month growth, supporting lithium carbonate consumption [21]. November Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling - In October, battery production increased by 8% month - on - month, with ternary batteries increasing by 2.3% and lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 10%. In November, battery production is expected to increase by 1.1% month - on - month, with ternary batteries increasing by 0.6% and lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 1.1%. The production scheduling in December is expected to be flat, showing the characteristic of an off - season not being off - peak [26]. Supply Analysis Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production Resumes Growth - From January to October, domestic lithium carbonate production was 776,000 tons, a 43% year - on - year increase. The production scheduling in November is 92,000 tons. Compared with May, the operating rate of integrated production capacity increased by 10%, and the operating rate of contract - manufacturing capacity increased by 30% (mainly lithium pyroxene production). The resumption of production at Jianxiaowo is in progress [31]. Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material in China - Data shows the production trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, lithium pyroxene, lithium mica, and recycling [33]. Limited Supply Increment of Lithium Carbonate in November - From January to September 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 173,000 tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China were 16,200 tons. Lithium salt imports in November are expected to have limited month - on - month growth. Australian shipments from September to October are higher than the average from January to October, and African Mali will have arrivals in November and December [41]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Estimation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided content, only a graph of China's lithium carbonate supply - demand balance is shown [43]. Continuous Inventory Depletion of Lithium Carbonate, Reaching the Peak in November - This week, the social inventory decreased by 3,405 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,336 tons, downstream inventory decreasing by 1,280 tons, and other inventory decreasing by 790 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 289 tons this week, and the decline significantly narrowed. The spot basis returned to par, but the spread between 2601 - 2605 widened, reflecting the market's optimistic expectation for the far - month [49].

Market Performance - The three major indices opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.37%, the ChiNext Index by 1.03%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 0.23% [2] - Over 3,100 stocks in the two markets rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.87 trillion yuan [2] Hainan Sector - The Hainan sector saw significant gains, with companies like Hainan Development, Haima Automobile, and Hainan Strait Holdings experiencing substantial increases [3] - A new duty-free shopping policy in Hainan, effective from November 1, expands the range of duty-free goods and increases the annual duty-free allowance for travelers to 100,000 yuan, enhancing shopping options for tourists [3] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially start operations on December 18, further boosting the sector [3] Electric Equipment Sector - The electric equipment sector performed strongly, with companies like Zhongneng Electric and Jinpan Technology seeing gains of nearly 20% [3] - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted a power shortage as a key issue for the AI industry, indicating a potential increase in demand for electric equipment to support GPU operations [3] Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Sector - Dongwu Securities revised its forecast for U.S. energy storage installations in 2026 to 76 GWh, a year-on-year increase of nearly 44%, with significant contributions from data centers [4] - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing active orders, with a year-on-year production increase of 35% reported for major battery manufacturers [4] - Prices for key lithium battery materials have seen a rebound, with lithium carbonate rising to 80,600 yuan per ton and lithium hexafluorophosphate increasing by 46.4% [4] Coal and Steel Sector - The coal and steel sectors showed strong performance, with companies like Antai Group and Vanadium Titanium Holdings rising by 10% [5] - CITIC Securities anticipates a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 15% in the average price of thermal coal at ports, with potential price peaks exceeding 850 yuan per ton [5] - The sector is expected to maintain a rebound due to improvements in policy, coal prices, and earnings expectations [5] Weak Sectors - The innovative drug and semiconductor sectors faced declines, with companies like 3SBio and Hua Hong Semiconductor experiencing significant drops [5] - The liquor and gaming sectors also weakened, with Perfect World and Kweichow Moutai seeing notable declines [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price increases due to supply disruptions, particularly following the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia Mine by CATL, which has shifted the supply-demand balance from surplus to potential shortage [1][2][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The suspension of lithium mining operations at CATL's Jiangxia Mine is expected to lead to a monthly supply reduction of 0.9 million tons, altering the monthly supply-demand dynamics [3]. - The current market sentiment is focused on the potential for further price increases, with futures prices reaching 81,000 yuan/ton, marking an 8% increase [1][2]. - Analysts predict that the lithium battery demand growth rate could reach 16%-21% by 2026, indicating a recovery phase for profitability in the lithium battery and related sectors [2]. Price Trends - The spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have risen to between 73,000 and 76,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade prices range from 71,600 to 73,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the upward trend in futures prices [3]. - The market is currently in a peak stocking phase, with strong demand from overseas energy storage projects contributing to the price increases [4]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of July 2025, the monthly inventory of lithium carbonate at Chinese smelters has decreased by 13% to 34,730 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - Recent data shows that lithium production has increased, with a weekly output of 19,556 tons, but concerns remain about the stability of production from various mining operations [6]. Import and Export Trends - Despite rising domestic prices, lithium ore imports have declined, with June figures showing a 4.81% decrease to 57.59 million tons [7]. - The import dynamics reveal a mixed performance, with Australian imports decreasing by 31.21%, while imports from Brazil have surged by 165.93% [7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment is bullish, with expectations of further price increases due to the supply constraints and heightened investor interest [8]. - Analysts caution that while the current market conditions favor price increases, there is a need for caution regarding potential corrections following speculative trading [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][51]. Core Viewpoints - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a structural shift with opportunities in solid-state battery segments. The demand for power batteries is expected to recover as the traditional peak season approaches, while energy storage demand remains high. The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the battery and materials sectors that have technological and production advantages in solid-state electrolytes and new materials [3][45]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of August 7, 2025, the lithium battery index has decreased by 6.59% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.77 percentage points. Year-to-date, the lithium battery index has increased by 4.55%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.01 percentage points [4][13]. Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Supply Chain - As of August 7, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 71,200 CNY/ton, up 0.92% in the last two weeks. The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 69,300 CNY/ton, up 2.36% [25][27]. - Electrolytic cobalt is priced at 267,000 CNY/ton, up 8.10%, while electrolytic nickel is at 122,400 CNY/ton, down 2.08% [26]. - Phosphate iron lithium prices remain stable at 32,700 CNY/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen increases of 1.78%, 1.68%, and 0.69%, respectively [27][30]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,300 CNY/ton, up 1.62%, with other electrolyte prices remaining stable [31]. Industry News - In July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1,003,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 14%, while wholesale sales were 1,179,000 units, up 25% year-on-year. The report indicates a traditional seasonal decline in sales but a strong year-on-year growth [42][45]. - Major automotive companies are advancing solid-state battery technology, with significant investments and developments reported by companies like Volkswagen and Gotion High-Tech [42][44]. Company Announcements - Notable companies such as CATL reported a revenue of 178.886 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, with a net profit of 30.485 billion CNY, up 33.33% [44][47]. - Other companies like Keda and Enjie are also showing strong performance and growth in their respective sectors, particularly in solid-state battery materials and components [47].

Market Overview - The new energy vehicle (NEV) index experienced a decline of 1.61% from June 16 to June 20, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.16% [1] - The best-performing sector within the automotive-related categories was the electric motor index, which fell by 2.25% [1] - The lithium battery index, part of the NEV battery sector, showed a positive performance with a gain of 2.85% [1] Company Performance - In the week of June 16 to June 20, various sectors related to new energy vehicles were analyzed, including new energy vehicles, electric motor control, automotive parts, and battery technologies [3] Industry Data - As of June 20, the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 64,300 CNY/ton, down 1,200 CNY/ton from June 13 [4] - The average price of battery-grade cobalt sulfate was 47,000 CNY/ton, decreasing by 750 CNY/ton [5] - The average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate remained stable at 28,500 CNY/ton [6] - The market price for lithium iron phosphate was stable at 30,300 CNY/ton [7] - The prices for various ternary precursor materials remained unchanged, with 811 type at 87,750 CNY/ton and 622 type at 79,500 CNY/ton [8] - The average price for ternary materials also held steady, with 811 type at 145,500 CNY/ton and NCA type at 147,500 CNY/ton [9] - Prices for separator materials remained unchanged, with dry film at 0.42 CNY/m² and wet film at 0.69 CNY/m² [10] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,700 CNY/ton, down 450 CNY/ton [11] - The price of square power cells remained stable at 0.34 CNY/Wh for lithium iron phosphate and 0.44 CNY/Wh for ternary cells [12] - The price of aluminum-plastic film remained unchanged at 14 CNY/m² [13] Production and Sales Data - In May, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1,270,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%, with cumulative production at 5,699,000 units, up 45.2% [14] - The wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in May were 1,216,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33% [14] - The installed capacity of power batteries in May was 57,100 MWh, up 43.1% year-on-year [14] - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in May were 382,476 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.27% [14]