1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global lithium resources are near a tight balance. With the expansion of the demand base, the available inventory days will show a downward trend, and the lithium price center should rise marginally [105][116]. - In Q2 2026, both supply and demand of lithium carbonate will increase. It is still expected to reduce inventory, but the reduction amplitude may decline compared to Q1. In Q3, if the supply from Zimbabwe and Jianxiaowo resumes, inventory may accumulate, but inventory reduction is expected again at the end of the year due to export rush [105][116]. - The price of lithium carbonate in Q2 2026 may fluctuate widely between 125,000 - 250,000 yuan/ton, with a center around 140,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [116]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q4 2025, the explosion of energy - storage demand and the less - than - expected resumption of production at Jianxiaowo drove the rapid increase of lithium carbonate prices. In Q1 2026, the market continued to rise sharply and then entered a wide - range shock [7]. - In early and mid - January 2026, due to multiple factors such as Trump's attack on Venezuela, cathode material manufacturers' joint production cut to support prices, the implementation of the export tax - rebate cancellation policy, and the resurgence of the Jiangxi mining license issue, the market price soared from 125,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 189,000 yuan/ton, a 51% increase [7]. - From mid - to late January to early February 2026, due to exchange macro - regulation and Trump's nomination of Wash, which triggered concerns about balance - sheet reduction, the market price dropped to a minimum of 124,000 yuan/ton by early February, a 34% decline [7]. - After the Spring Festival to late February 2026, downstream demand recovered after the Spring Festival, and SMM inventory decreased significantly for several consecutive weeks. On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all lithium ore exports, and the next day the market price jumped up, reaching a maximum of 188,000 yuan/ton, with a 52% increase in this stage [7]. - Since late February 2026, after the US - Israel's strike on Iran on February 28th and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the non - ferrous metals sector fell collectively. Subsequently, the market price fluctuated widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton. Recently, the continuous postponement of Zimbabwe's resumption time has again raised market concerns about supply [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Global Lithium Resource Production - In 2025, the global lithium resource production was about 1.675 million tons LCE. In 2026, it is expected to be about 2.207 million tons LCE, with an increase of 532,000 tons [8][9]. - In Q1 - Q4 2026, the global lithium resource production is expected to be 478,000 tons, 527,000 tons, 590,000 tons, and 613,000 tons LCE respectively [8]. 3.2.2 Regional Supply - **Australia**: The annual production of Australian mines will increase by 60,000 tons to 520,000 tons LCE. Some mines have adjusted their production guidance upwards, while some mines are currently shut down or plan to restart [8][10][12]. - **America**: The annual production of American spodumene will increase by 11,000 tons to 84,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of American salt lakes will increase by 84,000 tons to 510,000 tons LCE [8][9][15]. - **Africa**: The annual production in Africa will increase by 140,000 tons to 380,000 tons LCE. The main increments come from pre - built mines, and some new mines are planned to be put into production [8][9][16]. - **China**: The annual production of Chinese spodumene will increase by 55,000 tons to 132,000 tons LCE, the annual production of Chinese salt lakes will increase by 100,000 tons to 260,000 tons LCE, and the annual production of Chinese mica will increase by 50,000 tons to 195,000 tons LCE [8][9][24]. 3.2.3 Supply Disruptions - On February 25th, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports. It is expected to affect the monthly supply by 12,000 tons LCE, and the resumption time is still to be determined [22]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 New Energy Vehicle Market - **China**: In 2025, the domestic sales of Chinese passenger cars were 12.996 million, with a penetration rate of 54%. In 2026, it is expected to be 13.37 million, with a penetration rate peak of 65%. The domestic sales of Chinese commercial vehicles were 863,100 in 2025, and it is expected to be 1.232 million in 2026, with a penetration rate peak of 47% [42][46]. - **Europe**: It is expected that the high - growth trend in 2026 will continue, with a year - on - year increase of 30% to 5.27 million vehicles [54]. - **North America**: It is estimated that the sales of new energy vehicles in North America will decline by 10% to 1.57 million vehicles in 2026 [55]. 3.3.2 Energy - Storage Market - **China**: In 2024 - 2025, the winning bids for new energy storage in China were 171 GWh and 420 GWh respectively, with year - on - year increases of 52% and 145%. In 2025, the new installed capacity was 197 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 84%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [68]. - **USA**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of energy storage in the US was 50.99 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected to increase by 27% and 3% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. - **Europe**: In 2025, the new installed capacity of electrical energy storage in Europe was 27 GWh, with a year - on - year increase of 45%. It is expected to increase by 46% and 42% in 2026 - 2027 [73]. 3.3.3 Cathode Material and Cell Market - In January - February 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 745,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55%; the production of ternary cathode materials was 152,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 48% [86]. - In January - February 2026, the production of power cells was 222 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 31%; the production of energy - storage cells was 119 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 91% [86]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Overseas**: The inventory days of Australian mines have dropped to about 1 month [91]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of February, the lithium ore inventory of domestic sample lithium salt plants was 114,000 tons LCE, with inventory days of 1.4 months, and the mine inventory was only 8,000 tons LCE. The inventory of domestic spodumene is about 140,000 tons LCE, and the inventory days have dropped to about 2 months [91]. - **Market Inventory**: The overall/upstream/downstream/mid - stream SMM inventory as of March 26th was 99,000/17,000/46,000/36,000 tons respectively, with inventory days of 27.9/4.9/13.1/10 days respectively. There is also off - balance - sheet inventory, but its magnitude has a large variance [92]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - For new energy vehicle enterprises, when the lithium carbonate price rises to 206,800 yuan/ton, the net profit of leading new energy vehicle enterprises will reach zero. High costs may lead to negative demand feedback in the long run [111][112]. - For the energy - storage market, after the implementation of the capacity - price mechanism policy, taking Shanxi Province as an example, the internal rate of return (IRR) of energy storage can reach 7.85%. If the energy storage only needs to meet the minimum rate of return of 6.5%, the acceptable increase in the cell price is 0.05 yuan/Wh, and the acceptable increase in the lithium carbonate price is 100,000 yuan/ton [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zimbabwe's suspension of lithium concentrate exports has raised market concerns about supply. In 2026, Zimbabwe was originally expected to supply around 200,000 tons of LCE, accounting for 10% of the global total supply. The policy details and impact duration are currently unknown. It may affect the actual supply starting from mid - late April to May. If the suspension lasts a long time, the possibility of supplementary shipments after resumption should be watched. [5] - Lithium ore supply is tight both in reality and in expectation, leading to an increase in lithium ore quotes and auction prices, which is a strong positive factor for the fundamentals. [5] - In terms of supply, the supply in March is expected to increase significantly month - on - month due to post - holiday production resumption in China and an expected increase in imports. In terms of demand, affected by the maintenance of some cathode manufacturers in January and the Spring Festival in February, the month - on - month change is not sufficient to explain the situation. Compared with December last year, the cathode production schedules of several third - party institutions have basically increased by 0 - 4%. From the perspective of supply - demand balance, if it is the same as in December last year, there may be a tight balance in March; if there is an increase, it will turn to inventory depletion. [5] - The current social inventory has decreased to around 100,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days are less than one month. Continuous inventory depletion will also be a positive support. If the price corrects, the downstream's willingness to stock up will emerge. If the overseas export situation does not improve, it may further boost the bullish sentiment. However, although the winning bid price of energy storage has increased slightly, it takes time for raw material prices to be transmitted downstream. Considering the immediate profit of LFP cells, maintaining a price above 200,000 yuan/ton may lead to negative feedback from the end - users. [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - The overall price of the industrial chain this month showed relative strength, with a 4% monthly increase in lithium carbonate. [6] - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract increased from 148,200 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, to 176,040 yuan/ton on February 27, 2026, a rise of 27,840 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Inventory - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,839 tons to 100,093 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased by 4,471 tons to 40,021 tons, the inventory in other links increased by 170 tons to 41,690 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 1,462 tons to 18,382 tons. [4][6][22] 3.3 Production 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 1,638 tons to 21,822 tons. Among them, the lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 1,460 tons to 13,484 tons, the lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,812 tons, the lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 250 tons to 3,290 tons, and the lithium extraction from recycling increased by 78 tons to 2,236 tons. [4][6] - In February 2026, the total production of lithium carbonate was 81,930 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% or 15,970 tons. [49] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - The weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 664 tons to 15,617 tons, and the inventory decreased by 533 tons to 17,234 tons. [4][6][67] 3.3.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate - The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 300 tons to 89,150 tons, and the inventory increased by 459 tons to 92,556 tons. [4][6][69] 3.3.4 Power Cells - The weekly production of power cells increased by 11.6% to 26 GWh. Among them, the production of lithium - iron batteries increased by 11.1% to 20 GWh, and the production of ternary batteries increased by 13.2% to 6 GWh. [4][6][73] 3.3.5 Lithium Batteries - In February 2026, the production of lithium batteries was expected to decrease by 11% month - on - month to 171.71 GWh. Among them, the production of ternary batteries decreased by 16% to 26.54 GWh, the production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10% to 138.73 GWh, and the production of other batteries decreased by 25% to 6.45 GWh. [6] 3.4 Terminal Markets 3.4.1 New Energy Vehicles - According to the China Passenger Car Association, after the holiday, the price - cut promotion ability of new energy vehicle manufacturers is expected to decline. The weak price elasticity makes consumers more cautious, which may suppress the normal release of car - buying demand in the short term. Price anti - involution is a long - term benefit, which helps to improve the wait - and - see attitude of car - buying and guide the healthy development of industrial consumption. [4][6][87] 3.4.2 Energy Storage - According to CNESA, in January, the new installed capacity was 3.8 GW/10.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 62%/106%. The new energy storage market started well. [4][6][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment of capital risk aversion has increased, and the market is in a state of shock and consolidation. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation effect of macro - policies, marginal changes in costs and supply - demand, capacity release progress, as well as capital and sentiment [2][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 147,220 yuan/ton with a narrow - range shock. The trading volume dropped significantly to 311,900 lots, and the open interest slightly increased to 359,900 lots. The net short position of the main capital continued, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly month - on - month. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,030 to 34,114 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 153,000 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt factories had a strong price - holding sentiment and a weak willingness to sell scattered orders. Downstream material factories were cautiously waiting and mainly adopted a strategy of purchasing at low prices. The overall market inquiry and transactions were lighter than before [2] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material markets generally rose. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%). Except for salt lakes, the operating rates of other processes decreased. The total SMM production was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [3] Demand - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate production increased by 1.0% month - on - month with an increase in inventory accumulation; the ternary production decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and was gradually destocking. The production of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [3] Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, and the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant differentiation in inventory structure [3] Macro - policy Level - On the demand side, subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax - rebate policies provided multiple incentives to stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which would improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long term and raising the cost support center. In terms of industrial planning, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments at the Central Economic Work Conference formed synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthened the long - term macro - favorable atmosphere [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market will undergo range - bound consolidation, with a focus on marginal supply and demand changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures oscillated within a range, closing at 164,820 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 245 tons to 30,211 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 168,000 yuan/ton. The market sentiment showed obvious game characteristics, and the market transactions were divided. Upstream scattered orders' quotes shrank, and the willingness to ship became more cautious. Downstream material factories increased scattered order purchases at relatively low prices due to rigid demand and February stocking [1] 3.2 Supply Side - Last week, the raw material market was divided. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore prices declined. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%), and the operating rates of all processes except for salt lakes decreased. The total SMM output was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [2] 3.3 Demand Side - There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. This week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.0% month - on - month, and inventory accumulation increased. The output of ternary materials decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, and inventory gradually decreased. Last week, the output of power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in SMM rose to 55.6%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, with low inventory, and the production schedule increased slightly, supporting demand [2] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the social inventory of SMM's four - location samples increased by 2% (+860 tons) month - on - month. This week, the weekly sample inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 28.5 days. The inventory days of downstream increased to 10.8 days, while the inventory days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] 3.5 Macro Policy - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for automobile trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure in the long term and raise the cost support center. Industrial plans, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference, form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience high - level shock adjustment, with a focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, with an intraday decline of 6.56% and closing at 165,680 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 490 tons to 28,646 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 181,500 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market showed a differentiated trend. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore generally declined. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the total output was 22,217 tons (-388 tons) [4] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation. SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased production and inventory, the output of power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were strong with extremely low inventory [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the four - place sample of SMM increased by 2% (+860 tons) week - on - week, the sample weekly inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons), the total inventory days were 27.8 days, and the inventory structure was significantly differentiated [4] Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term [5] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy storage in the "15th Five - Year Plan", and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive effect to support the long - term balance of supply and demand [5] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, with a focus on cost and marginal changes in supply and demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range and closed at 168,780 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 230 tons to 28,886 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 164,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply - side Situation - Last week, raw material prices increased by over 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. This week, the total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the operating rates of various process routes decreased month - on - month due to maintenance plans. The total production of SMM was 22,217 tons (-388 tons), with a slight decrease in supply [2] Demand - side Situation - There was a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM iron - lithium and ternary materials decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of SMM new - energy vehicle sales rose to 55.6%, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [2] Inventory Situation - The sample social inventory in four regions of SMM increased by 3.1% (+1,290 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory was destocked again, decreasing slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days were 27.8 days, with the upstream and downstream inventory days increasing to 5.1 days and 9.6 days respectively, and the inventory days in other links decreasing to 13.1 days. The inventory structure showed significant differentiation [2] Macro - policy Situation - On the demand side, multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. Industrial plans such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year" plan for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will stabilize in a volatile manner, and investors should focus on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile downward trend, hitting the daily limit of 146,200 yuan/ton multiple times, with an intraday decline of about 9%. Trading volume increased to 592,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 416,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly to 27,500 lots. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 158,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 11,800 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, the upstream's reluctance to sell increased, with a low willingness to sell scattered orders, and some manufacturers suspended quotations and actively stockpiled. The downstream's purchasing willingness increased due to lower prices and rigid demand. Overall market inquiries and traders' willingness to sell both increased [3] Fundamental Analysis Supply - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 17% month - on - month, strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 52.7% (+0.98%). The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes increased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling decreased slightly. The total output was 22,605 tons (+70 tons), and the supply stabilized at a high level [4] Demand - There was significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the output of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased slightly, and inventory was destocked. The output of SMM power cells decreased slightly. As of January 11, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales decreased month - on - month, and the production schedule of energy - storage cells increased slightly to support demand [4] Inventory - Last week, the weekly inventory of SMM samples was destocked again, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% (-263 tons). The total inventory days remained at 28 days. The upstream inventory days increased to 5 days, and the downstream inventory days decreased slightly to 13.8 days, showing significant inventory structure differentiation [4] Macroeconomic Policy - On the demand side, in 2026, multiple incentives such as car trade - in subsidies, Fed rate cuts, and battery export tax - rebate policies will stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, on January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve recycling thresholds and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic lithium carbonate supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term [5] - Industrial planning, such as the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan and the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, along with a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference, will form a coordinated positive impact, supporting long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts will indirectly strengthen the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The industry will experience range - bound oscillations, with the strong game - playing pattern continuing. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in costs, supply, and demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main lithium carbonate contract showed wide - range oscillations, with prices fluctuating between 155,000 yuan/ton and 173,400 yuan/ton, closing at 161,940 yuan/ton. Trading volume slightly shrank to 589,000 lots, and open interest slightly decreased to 453,000 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the long - short ratio decreased by 3.8% month - on - month. Market sentiment was cautious, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 27,200 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 163,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 1,060 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of market transactions, upstream lithium salt manufacturers preferentially fulfilled long - term agreements, and their willingness to sell spot orders was low, with some manufacturers quoting high prices. The proportion of spot purchases by downstream material manufacturers increased during long - term agreement negotiations. The weakening of the afternoon market led to a recovery in inquiry and transactions, and overall transactions moderately increased [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply side**: Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% month - on - month, continuing the upward trend and strengthening cost support. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% month - on - month. The operating rates of spodumene and salt lakes decreased slightly, while those of lithium mica and recycling increased slightly. SMM's total output increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and production capacity was further released [4]. - **Demand side**: There was a significant structural differentiation. Last week, the production of SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively, with inventory destocking. The production of SMM power cells slightly decreased, while SMM new energy vehicle sales and penetration reached new highs. Slight growth in the production scheduling of energy - storage cells supported demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days slightly increased to 28 days [4]. Policy Impact - In 2026, subsidies for car trade - ins, the Fed's interest rate cuts, the industrial plan for Qinghai salt lakes, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly provided favorable support for long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may exacerbate short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export rush demand [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price of finished steel is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and it will operate in a range-bound and weak manner, with a focus on shock consolidation [1][3] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the market will focus on market games and marginal supply and demand, with a view of range-bound fluctuations [1][4] Group 3: Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel - In the Yunnan-Guizhou region, short-process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid-to-late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period. In Anhui Province, one of the six short-process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most of the other steel mills will stop production around mid-January, with an estimated daily impact on output of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown period [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly-built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year-on-year [2] - Yesterday, finished steel prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to continue to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, with an intraday amplitude of over 13%. The main contract opened high and moved high, then quickly fell back, hitting the daily limit of 117,400 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of over 8%, closing at 118,820 yuan/ton. Trading activity significantly rebounded, with trading volume increasing to 689,000 lots, and positions continued to shrink to 512,000 lots. The net short position of the main contract continued, and registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, indicating a looser market supply expectation [2] - On the spot side, the average price of electric carbon continued to rise to 118,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was -820 yuan/ton, maintaining a negative basis pattern. In the market transaction, due to a slight improvement in the rigid demand procurement gap, the price center continued to move up with rigid demand transactions [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% month-on-month, with the supply side steadily releasing but at a slower pace. On the demand side, short-term demand slightly decreased, while long-term demand was firmly supported. SMM data showed that last week, the output of ternary and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% month-on-month respectively, and inventories decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% month-on-month respectively, continuing to decline. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% month-on-month and increased by 39.1% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales increased by 7.22% month-on-month, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% month-on-month, showing a high year-on-year increase [3] - In terms of inventory, last week, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% month-on-month and increased by 1.97% year-on-year, with the de-stocking slope slowing down. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% month-on-month and 27.30% year-on-year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Last week, the social inventory in four regions increased by 3.30% month-on-month, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year-on-year, indicating that the tight inventory pattern remained unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices weakened marginally [3] - Policy-wise, the short-term regulatory tightening is clear, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has implemented measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments from the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergistic positive effect, combined with the focus on energy storage in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the continuation of new energy vehicle trade-in subsidies to support long-term supply and demand. With the release of market speculation sentiment and increased regulatory control, the futures price may maintain a range-bound consolidation [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range with a downward shift in the center of gravity, showing a weak operation. The lithium carbonate is expected to remain in a state of tight inventory and operate at a high level within the range. The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, while the lithium carbonate is expected to operate at a high level, and investors should avoid chasing up and focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - The short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region stopped production for maintenance during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected resumption of production between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, and the total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest plan to stop production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center of gravity. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices. The future outlook is for volatile and consolidating operation, and the focus should be on macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, with trading volume significantly reduced to 429,000 lots and open interest reduced to 577,000 lots. The net short position in the main contract continued, and the registered warehouse receipts continued to increase. The average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 111,900 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 18,620 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures market has higher expectations than the spot market [2] - In the market transaction, most upstream lithium salt producers focus on long - term contracts, with few spot sales. Downstream material producers are cautiously waiting and watching. Some lithium iron phosphate manufacturers have stopped production for maintenance, and some enterprises are forced to accept high - priced goods to maintain production due to rigid demand, continuously pushing up the spot price center. The trading volume of traders is light [2] - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the raw material prices continued to rise last week, further strengthening the cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 0.53% from the previous period, with a steady but slowing supply growth. On the demand side, the short - term demand decreased slightly, while the long - term demand was firmly supported. The output of ternary and lithium iron batteries decreased by 0.67% and 1.42% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory decreased by 0.49% and 1.36% respectively, continuing the destocking trend. The output of power cells decreased by 0.41% from the previous period and increased by 39.1% year - on - year. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 7.22% from the previous period, and the penetration rate increased by 7.47% from the previous period, showing a high year - on - year growth [3] - In terms of inventory, the total weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.59% from the previous period and increased by 1.97% year - on - year, with a slowing destocking slope. The total inventory days decreased by 0.38% from the previous period and decreased by 27.30% year - on - year. The inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. The social inventory in four places increased by 3.30% from the previous period, showing a phased accumulation, and decreased by 48.79% year - on - year. The tight inventory pattern remains unchanged, but the support of inventory for prices is weakening at the margin [3] - In terms of policy, the short - term supervision tightening is clear. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has taken measures such as trading limits to deal with price fluctuations. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and the series of arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive impact. Coupled with the key points of energy storage in the 14th Five - Year Plan and the continuation of the new energy vehicle trade - in subsidy, they support the long - term supply and demand. The market sentiment forms a positive cycle of "expectation - price - sentiment", which is strong but fragile, and risks such as the commissioning of new production lines, insufficient downstream acceptance, and over - bought correction should be vigilant. The future outlook is for operating at a high level, and investors should avoid chasing up and focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand. The focus should be on the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand and acceptance of high prices, the destocking slope of sample inventory, and capital and sentiment [4]