Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate market in China continues to face challenges, with declines in investment, new construction, and sales in the first five months of 2025, although the rate of decline has shown some signs of narrowing compared to 2024. Group 1: Investment and Construction Trends - Total investment in commercial properties reached 398.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, with the decline rate narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - New construction area totaled 20.49 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - Sales area amounted to 28.6 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with the decline rate narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Commercial Property Market Performance - In the commercial property sector, investment decreased by 7.6%, new construction area fell by 25.2%, and sales area dropped by 6.0% in the first five months of 2025 [2] - For office buildings, investment declined by 16.3%, new construction area decreased by 24.1%, and sales area fell by 7.4% [3][5] - The land market for commercial properties saw a significant drop, with a 24.6% decrease in new land supply and a 17.1% decrease in transaction area across 300 cities in the first half of 2025 [6][10] Group 3: Retail and Leasing Market Dynamics - The number of new retail commercial projects opened in the first five months of 2025 was 89, with a total construction area of approximately 7 million square meters, representing a 17% decrease in area compared to the same period in 2024 [12] - The average rent for major shopping streets in key cities fell by 0.35%, while the average rent for shopping centers decreased by 0.12%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [15][18] - The rental market for office buildings remains weak, with an average rent decline of 1.06% in key cities during the first half of 2025 [20] Group 4: Market Activity and Transaction Trends - The large transaction market remained active, with 83 transactions recorded in the first five months of 2025, maintaining a similar level to the previous year [23] - The total transaction amount reached 93.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85% year-on-year, driven by several large transactions [24] - Retail commercial properties and office buildings were the most favored types in transactions, with retail transactions accounting for 60% of the total transaction amount [27] Group 5: Corporate Strategies and Performance - Leading companies are focusing on enhancing operational capabilities and stabilizing occupancy rates through innovative strategies and improved service quality [28][30] - The average occupancy rate for operational shopping centers among leading companies remained above 90%, with some companies reporting significant year-on-year growth in sales [31] - In contrast, the office rental performance of major real estate companies showed weaker growth, with occupancy rates around 80% [31] Group 6: Financing and Investment Trends - The issuance of CMBS/CMBN and REITs products remained low, with a total issuance of 38.2 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [39] - The market for consumption REITs has seen a steady increase, with nine products issued, totaling over 22 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in this financing avenue [40][42] Group 7: Future Trends and Opportunities - Community commercial projects are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing service consumption and meeting local needs, supported by government policies [43][47] - The integration of culture, tourism, and commerce is emerging as a significant direction for commercial upgrades, with various supportive policies being implemented [50][52]

每经记者 李蕾 每经编辑 彭水萍 "五一"假期前一周（4月28日～4月30日），我国已上市公募REITs的二级市场价格较前一周有所回调。截至4月30日，中证REITs（收盘）指数收于846.01 点，环比下跌1.43%；中证REITs全收益指数收于1057.92点，环比下跌0.1%。各大类资产收益表现由高到低排序依次为：纯债>REITs>股票>转债>黄金>原 油。 在这其中，表现最好的是消费REITs。据开源证券，消费REITs单周上涨1.19%，单月累计上涨2.18%。 具体产品方面，全市场已经上市的65只公募REITs涨跌互现，其中有34只REITs环比上涨。涨幅排名前三的分别是中金重庆两江REIT、中金联东科创REIT 和 华夏华润商业REIT，周内分别上涨4.99%、3.9%和2.7%。周内跌幅最大的三只产品则分别为工银蒙能清洁能源REIT、华夏杭州和达高科产园REIT和国泰君 安临港创新产业园REIT。 行业方面，上周中金厦门安居保租房REIT的扩募正式启动，中金中国绿发商业REIT也对审核问询函进行了答复，发行市场保持活跃。 二级市场涨跌互现，消费REITs表现优秀 上周，公募REITs二级市场可 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 项目基本面经营分化差异加剧。1）产业园： 产业园区供需压力进一步加大，大部分项目主动或被动进入降价竞争。我们统计板块收入同环比分别下降 11.8%和7.7%。由于供需端矛盾尚未缓解，我们认为产业园后续经营或仍将持续波动。 2）物流仓储： 大部分项目通过下调租金应对供给冲击和存量竞 争，促使同口径下板块收入重回下降通道，同环比下滑4.8%和3.6%。供需再平衡过程中，一季度特朗普关税不确定性或也将影响物流仓储租户行为。 3） 保租房： 保租房板块受宏观经济影响较小，一季度板块收入仅出现小幅波动，出租率维持较高水平，租金水平变化则出现小幅分化，其中政策性保租房 租金保持稳定或略有上涨，市场化项目则出现环比下滑，但整体仍符合预期。 4）消费： 得益于各地促消费政策，消费REITs一季度开局良好，我们测算 可比口径收入环比上升1.7%，收入完成度较好。 5）高速： 受低基数与路网变化的影响，高速项目表现分化明显，往后看我们认为板块仍有望延续稳中 向好态势，但路网变化对于单条路产影响较大，应持续关注分流影响。 6）市政环保： 生物质发电项目吨发表现、成本管控好于预期，水务受合肥 ...