本文为我们REITs板块系列报告的第4篇，我们通过该报告梳理消费REITs基本面及估值特征，以帮助大家进行后续投资判断。 中金研究 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 什么是消费基础设施？ 消费基础设施的范畴在广义零售业态的基础上，进一步拓展至商业街区、农贸市场与社区商业等多元品类。当前，中国零售物业 已迈入精细化发展阶段，运营核心转向满足消费者需求与提升体验，消费REITs也在该阶段应运而生，自2024年以来政策密集出台支持消费REITs发展， 截至2025年10月24日，中国消费REITs已初具规模，数量为11只，市值达395亿元，约占C-REITs市场的18%。 消费REITs基本面怎么看？ 我们重点从以下维度分析： 1）宏观： 消费补贴政策已接近尾声，其对消费的拉动边际效应或有所递减，展望2026年，我们认 为消费政策仍有待持续发力，建议关注补贴方向和力度的变化及其实际落地表现。 2）市场情况： 供给端，当前我国零售供给已陆续退潮，我们认为未来 供给或向一线非核心区域、二三线城市倾斜，并以存量调整为主要特征；需求端仍处于缓慢修复通道，其中一二线城市分化。从市场表现来看，当前整体 市场租金端仍有压 ...

北京，2025年10月30日——享誉全球的房地产服务及咨询顾问公司戴德梁行根据"十五五"规划纲要作出 专业解读，并发布《"十五五"规划——重塑未来五年中国房地产市场格局》报告。作为"两个一百年"奋 斗目标历史交汇期的关键规划，"十五五"规划（2026-2030 年）不仅是衔接"十四五"、奠定2035年现代 化建设基础的核心蓝图，更将通过五大核心主线，重塑未来五年中国商业地产市场的发展格局。 自1953年以来，中国已连续实施十四个五年规划，形成"短期-中期-长期"层层递进的目标传导机制。"十 五五"规划立足全面建成小康社会的历史节点，聚焦向第二个百年奋斗目标迈进的首程任务，针对"十四 五"期间面临的国内高质量发展转型压力、全球地缘政治动荡与产业链重构等挑战，以"双循环"新发展 格局为核心战略，明确了现代化产业体系建设、科技自立自强、国内市场培育、高水平对外开放等重点 方向，为商业地产行业提供了清晰的发展指引。 新质生产力激活写字楼和产业地产需求 "十五五"规划将现代化产业体系建设提升至首位，涵盖传统行业优化、新兴产业壮大与未来产业布局三 大维度。新能源汽车、生物医药等战略性新兴产业已在政策扶持下实现规模化增长， ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 消费 REITs 如何定价？ [Table_Title2] 公募 REITs 系列之四 [Table_Summary] 公募 REITs 一级市场认购热度不减，8-9 月新发行的 3 单消 费 REITs，网下和公众投资者认购倍数均在 200 倍以上。与此同 时，这些新发 REITs 的询价区间宽度有所拉长，意味着定价越来 越具有挑战性。本文聚焦消费 REITs，以近期发行的凯德商业 REIT 和中海商业 REIT 作为样本，进行定价模型搭建与预测。 ►定价关键：获得合理准确的可供分配现金流 参考近期发行上市的唯品会奥莱和凯德商业 2 只消费 REITs 发行情况，预计本月上市的华夏中海商业 REIT 上市首日涨幅约 13-27%，对应上市首日收盘价为 5.968-6.707 元/份。不过由于 二级市场情绪依然偏弱，按照全市场消费 REITs 当前行情的平均 估值收益率测算，中海商业 REIT 在打新效应退去后的平均定价 中枢为 5.43 元/份。 ►持续跟踪项目经营情况，留意未来增长空间 收益 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing focus on consumer REITs in the market, with 12 consumer REITs listed or preparing for listing since March 2024, indicates a growing interest and demand for these investment vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The recent issuance of the Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT saw an oversubscription of 252.6 times in the offline market, with public shares selling out quickly, achieving an effective subscription multiple of 535.2 times and total subscription funds of 309.17 billion yuan, which is 135.2 times the intended fundraising scale [1]. - The six consumer REITs currently in the market have shown a general upward trend in their secondary market prices, with the Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT experiencing the highest increase of over 50% [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Composition and Rental Rates - The underlying assets of the 12 consumer REITs include shopping centers, outlet malls, farmers' markets, and community commerce, with shopping centers being the dominant asset type, accounting for 7 out of the 12 products and a total estimated value of approximately 22.8 billion yuan [1]. - The occupancy rates of the five consumer REITs with disclosed data are all above 95%, with the highest rates being 99.03% for both Qingdao MixC and Changsha Lanshow City [5][6]. Group 3: Rental Price Changes - Rental prices for the underlying assets of the five consumer REITs have generally increased, except for a slight decline of 0.86% in the Chengdu Dayuecheng's rental price. The highest rental price is recorded at 419.71 yuan per square meter per month for Qingdao MixC, reflecting a 5.53% increase from the previous period [6][8]. - The rental contribution from the top five tenants significantly impacts the overall rental income stability, with the Huaxia Dayuecheng Commercial REIT showing a notable increase in the proportion of income from its top tenant [9][10]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - The consumer REITs have focused on brand diversification and marketing strategies to enhance customer traffic and sales conversion, with notable initiatives such as introducing new brands and hosting themed events [11][12]. - The Qingdao MixC reported a 12.9% year-on-year increase in foot traffic, while the Hangzhou Xixi Impression City achieved a sales growth of 17.78% [13]. Group 5: Financial Metrics - The expected annual cash distribution rates for the five consumer REITs range between 3% and 5%, with the Huaxia Baolian Consumer REIT having the highest rate at 4.28% [14][15]. - The financial performance of the five consumer REITs includes total revenues and distributable amounts, with Huaxia Huayun Commercial REIT reporting an operating income of 3.63 billion yuan and a distributable amount of 1.79 billion yuan [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumption REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [7]. Core Insights - The consumption REITs have shown resilient operations in 2025, outperforming the broader market, with stable revenue and distribution targets being met as expected [1][3]. - The report highlights that consumption REITs are likely to benefit first from improvements in the macroeconomic environment, particularly in the context of property REITs [1]. - The overall retail market in China has experienced steady recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in the first half of 2025, driven by both policy support and internal recovery [2][11]. - The supply of commercial real estate is under pressure but has shown signs of easing, with a 29% year-on-year decrease in the number of new openings for centralized commercial spaces [2][19]. - The average occupancy rate for consumption REITs remains high, exceeding 95%, with some leading projects achieving over 98% [3][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail market has seen a steady recovery, with a 5.0% year-on-year increase in social retail sales in H1 2025, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [2][11]. - The gap between offline and online retail growth rates is narrowing, indicating a reduced diversion of customers from physical stores to online platforms [2][11]. Operational Performance - Consumption REITs have demonstrated operational resilience, with an average revenue growth of 0.4% year-on-year in H1 2025 [3][27]. - The average occupancy rate for consumption REITs is reported at 97.13%, with most projects maintaining high occupancy levels [60][66]. - The EBITDA for consumption REITs has seen a slight year-on-year decline, but most are expected to meet their 2025 targets [74][81]. Market Performance - The average distributable amount for consumption REITs has increased by 3.5% year-on-year, indicating strong dividend intentions [4]. - Consumption REITs have significantly outperformed the REITs index this year, with dividend yields ranging from 3.5% to 6.3% [4][5]. Outlook - The consumption REITs sector is expected to continue expanding, with new projects entering the market and existing REITs planning to inject additional assets [5]. - The report notes a positive sentiment in the secondary market, with a valuation reassessment benefiting the primary market as well [5].

Group 1: Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to effectively release domestic demand potential and implement consumption-boosting policies [2][4] - In July 2025, the Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of expanding consumer demand while fostering new growth points in service consumption [2] - The issuance of CMBS/CMBN and similar REITs products by real estate-related companies reached approximately 65.4 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 26% year-on-year increase [10][12] Group 2: Market Performance - From January to July 2025, the planned commercial and office land area launched and transacted in 300 cities was 126.63 million square meters and 102.97 million square meters, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 22.3% and 16.1% [6][8] - In July 2025, 12 large transactions were monitored, with a total transaction amount of 4.3 billion yuan, primarily in commercial real estate [8][9] Group 3: Policy Dynamics - The State Council's meeting on July 31 approved the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan to promote the large-scale commercial application of AI, aiming to enhance domestic economic vitality [3] - Local governments, such as Shanghai and Beijing, have introduced specific measures to boost consumption, including optimizing tax refund environments and promoting cultural tourism [4][5] Group 4: Company and Project Developments - New City Holdings reported a total commercial operating revenue of 6.944 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year growth [19] - Hualian Group launched its community commercial brand "Jinlongxin," focusing on creating a vibrant community lifestyle [22] - The first outlet project by China Resources Land, "Wanda Binhai Shopping Village," is set to open in December 2025, aiming to create a fashionable resort destination [25]

Summary of Key Points from REITs Conference Call Industry Overview - The REITs market has experienced a valuation correction, providing entry opportunities for investors as valuations have returned to a reasonable range, with the standard deviation indicating a departure from previously high levels [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Park Sector**: The industrial park segment continues to show weakness, particularly in second-tier cities where the marginal decline has exceeded expectations due to poor supply-demand dynamics. The supply side remains large, while demand is contracting as companies focus on cost reduction [1][4] - **Logistics and Warehousing**: The logistics and warehousing sector outperformed expectations in Q2, rebounding after a decline influenced by tariffs. The South China region faces significant supply pressure, while the North and East China regions continue to experience rental pressure. The Chengdu-Chongqing area shows signs of marginal recovery [1][11] - **Affordable Rental Housing**: The affordable rental housing sector demonstrated stability in Q2, with a 3.5% increase in revenue and high occupancy rates around 96%. This sector is noted for its strong anti-cyclical properties [1][14] - **Consumer REITs**: The consumer REITs sector faced seasonal impacts, with a general revenue decline of 5.5% in Q2. REITs with a high proportion of joint ventures experienced more significant fluctuations [1][15] Additional Important Insights - **Highway REITs**: There is operational differentiation within highway REITs, with overall toll revenue declining but EBITDA increasing due to effective cost control. Passenger vehicle revenue decreased while freight vehicle revenue increased, indicating a recovery in freight demand [3][18][20] - **Energy and Environmental REITs**: Wastewater treatment projects outperformed waste-to-energy projects. The market for renewable energy projects is influenced by regional policies and market pricing reforms [3][19][25] - **Market Dynamics**: The REITs market has seen a general adjustment, with an index decline of approximately 3% and individual securities experiencing declines of 5% to 8%. This adjustment is primarily driven by profit-taking behavior [2][27] - **Future Considerations**: Investors are advised to focus on projects with proven operational capabilities and stable income sources, particularly in the context of ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty [6][9][31] Conclusion - The REITs market is currently characterized by a mix of challenges and opportunities across various sectors, with a notable emphasis on the importance of operational efficiency and market adaptability in navigating the evolving landscape.

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate market in China continues to face challenges, with declines in investment, new construction, and sales in the first five months of 2025, although the rate of decline has shown some signs of narrowing compared to 2024. Group 1: Investment and Construction Trends - Total investment in commercial properties reached 398.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, with the decline rate narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - New construction area totaled 20.49 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - Sales area amounted to 28.6 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with the decline rate narrowing by 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Commercial Property Market Performance - In the commercial property sector, investment decreased by 7.6%, new construction area fell by 25.2%, and sales area dropped by 6.0% in the first five months of 2025 [2] - For office buildings, investment declined by 16.3%, new construction area decreased by 24.1%, and sales area fell by 7.4% [3][5] - The land market for commercial properties saw a significant drop, with a 24.6% decrease in new land supply and a 17.1% decrease in transaction area across 300 cities in the first half of 2025 [6][10] Group 3: Retail and Leasing Market Dynamics - The number of new retail commercial projects opened in the first five months of 2025 was 89, with a total construction area of approximately 7 million square meters, representing a 17% decrease in area compared to the same period in 2024 [12] - The average rent for major shopping streets in key cities fell by 0.35%, while the average rent for shopping centers decreased by 0.12%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [15][18] - The rental market for office buildings remains weak, with an average rent decline of 1.06% in key cities during the first half of 2025 [20] Group 4: Market Activity and Transaction Trends - The large transaction market remained active, with 83 transactions recorded in the first five months of 2025, maintaining a similar level to the previous year [23] - The total transaction amount reached 93.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 85% year-on-year, driven by several large transactions [24] - Retail commercial properties and office buildings were the most favored types in transactions, with retail transactions accounting for 60% of the total transaction amount [27] Group 5: Corporate Strategies and Performance - Leading companies are focusing on enhancing operational capabilities and stabilizing occupancy rates through innovative strategies and improved service quality [28][30] - The average occupancy rate for operational shopping centers among leading companies remained above 90%, with some companies reporting significant year-on-year growth in sales [31] - In contrast, the office rental performance of major real estate companies showed weaker growth, with occupancy rates around 80% [31] Group 6: Financing and Investment Trends - The issuance of CMBS/CMBN and REITs products remained low, with a total issuance of 38.2 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [39] - The market for consumption REITs has seen a steady increase, with nine products issued, totaling over 22 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in this financing avenue [40][42] Group 7: Future Trends and Opportunities - Community commercial projects are expected to play a crucial role in enhancing service consumption and meeting local needs, supported by government policies [43][47] - The integration of culture, tourism, and commerce is emerging as a significant direction for commercial upgrades, with various supportive policies being implemented [50][52]

Core Viewpoint - The secondary market for publicly offered REITs in China experienced a mixed performance leading up to the May Day holiday, with a slight overall decline in indices, while consumer REITs showed resilience and positive growth [1][2]. Market Performance - As of April 30, the CSI REITs Index closed at 846.01 points, down 1.43% week-on-week, while the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1057.92 points, down 0.1% week-on-week [1][2]. - Year-on-year, the CSI REITs Index increased by 4.48%, and the Total Return Index rose by 12.19% [2]. - The performance of various asset classes ranked from highest to lowest as follows: pure debt > REITs > stocks > convertible bonds > gold > oil [1]. Sector Performance - Consumer REITs outperformed other categories, with a weekly increase of 1.19% and a monthly increase of 2.18% [1][2]. - Among the different asset types, the weekly performance was as follows: - Consumer: +1.70% - Rental housing: +0.68% - Eco-environmental: +0.45% - Warehousing and logistics: +0.34% - Highways: +0.09% - Energy: -0.48% - Industrial parks: -1.28% [2]. Individual REIT Performance - Out of 65 publicly offered REITs, 34 saw an increase, while 31 experienced a decline [3]. - The top three performing REITs were: - CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT: +4.99% - CICC Lian Dong Sci-Tech REIT: +3.9% - Huaxia Huayun Commercial REIT: +2.7% [3]. Market Activity - The trading volume for the 65 publicly offered REITs reached 1.63 billion yuan, with energy infrastructure REITs leading in average daily turnover rate at 0.71% [6]. - The top three REITs by trading volume were: - Bosera Shekou Industrial REIT - Southern SF Logistics REIT - CICC Xiamen Rental Housing REIT [6]. Fundraising and Issuance - The CICC Xiamen Rental Housing REIT has initiated an expansion of its fundraising, with plans to acquire additional rental housing assets [8]. - CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT responded to an inquiry regarding its valuation adjustment, which was minor at 2.26% [8]. - As of April 30, there were 11 REIT products under review and 2 approved but not yet listed, indicating a vibrant issuance market [9].

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 项目基本面经营分化差异加剧。1）产业园： 产业园区供需压力进一步加大，大部分项目主动或被动进入降价竞争。我们统计板块收入同环比分别下降 11.8%和7.7%。由于供需端矛盾尚未缓解，我们认为产业园后续经营或仍将持续波动。 2）物流仓储： 大部分项目通过下调租金应对供给冲击和存量竞 争，促使同口径下板块收入重回下降通道，同环比下滑4.8%和3.6%。供需再平衡过程中，一季度特朗普关税不确定性或也将影响物流仓储租户行为。 3） 保租房： 保租房板块受宏观经济影响较小，一季度板块收入仅出现小幅波动，出租率维持较高水平，租金水平变化则出现小幅分化，其中政策性保租房 租金保持稳定或略有上涨，市场化项目则出现环比下滑，但整体仍符合预期。 4）消费： 得益于各地促消费政策，消费REITs一季度开局良好，我们测算 可比口径收入环比上升1.7%，收入完成度较好。 5）高速： 受低基数与路网变化的影响，高速项目表现分化明显，往后看我们认为板块仍有望延续稳中 向好态势，但路网变化对于单条路产影响较大，应持续关注分流影响。 6）市政环保： 生物质发电项目吨发表现、成本管控好于预期，水务受合肥 ...