今日（1.19），A股缩量震荡走强，大消费板块飘红。同类规模领先的消费ETF（159928）收涨0.39%，全天成交额超3.6亿元！资金持续涌入，今日再获净 申购2800万份，此前5日更是累计"吸金"超16亿元！ 1月19日，国家统计局公布数据显示，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5%。2025年12月社会消费品零售总额同比增长0.9%， 增速较11月回落0.4个百分点。2025年全年看，社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.7%，涨幅较前11个月小幅回落0.3个百分点。 另外，国家统计局发布《2025年居民收入和消费支出情况》显示，中国2025年全国居民人均可支配收入43377元，比上年名义增长5%，扣除价格因素，实际 增长5%。2025年全国居民人均可支配收入中位数36231元，增长4.4%，中位数是平均数的83.5%。 展望2026年，东方金诚表示，外需对经济增长的拉动力或减弱，需要内需及时顶上来。可以看到，在2025年12月重要经济工作会议部署的2026年八大重点任 务中，排在首位的是"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"。 中诚信国际分析，高质量产品和服务，以及"一老一小"等领域的 ...

今日（1.13），沪指震荡回落，大消费板块回调，消费ETF（159928）两连阳后回调超1%，成交额大幅放量，盘中已超10亿元！资金超大幅涌入，盘中大举 揽金超6.8亿份，此前5日更是累计"吸金"超16亿元！ 消息面上，为促进服务业提质增效和消费提振扩容联动发展，以服务业高质量供给激发高品质消费需求，以高品质消费需求牵引服务业高质量发展，近日上 海市高层办公厅印发《上海市促进服务业提质增效和消费提振扩容联动发展的若干措施》。《若干措施》从优化供给和扩大消费两端发力，聚焦服务业和消 费联动发展的关键领域，提出28条政策举措，包括金融产品和服务创新、规范平台消费发展、丰富消费场景、放大文旅商体展联动效应、推动生活性服务业 提升等内容。 具体来看，《若干措施》聚焦优质供给、增量领域和薄弱环节，着重强化服务业改革创新和供给提质，统筹推进优供给、促消费、稳增长、惠民生。其整体 框架为"6+1"，即金融、信息服务、交通运输、文体娱乐、生活服务、检验检测认证等6个重点行业领域和1个保障措施，共28条措施。 成分股消息方面，百亿单品茅台1935或执行新价格体系，打款价零售价均下调。1月12日，渠道人士反馈，茅台1935或将执 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a comprehensive recovery, with the consumption ETF (159928) experiencing a slight decline of 0.25% but achieving a total trading volume of 569 million yuan [1] - The consumption ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of 24.4 million units throughout the day, accumulating over 420 million yuan in the last 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - As of December 19, the latest scale of the consumption ETF (159928) has exceeded 21.1 billion yuan, leading its peers in the same category [1] Group 2: Hainan Market Dynamics - Hainan local stocks have surged following the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure on December 18, with Sanya's duty-free sales reaching 118 million yuan on the first day [3] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City recorded over 36,000 visitors, a year-on-year increase of over 60% [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption 50 ETF (159268) saw a slight increase of 0.42%, with a trading volume exceeding 30 million yuan [3] Group 3: Consumption Sector Valuation - The consumption ETF (159928) has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4, placing it in the 3.13% percentile over the past decade, indicating it is cheaper than 97% of the historical time frame [5] - Seasonal trends in Q4 suggest a potential shift in market style towards undervalued sectors, particularly in December [5] Group 4: Future Consumption Trends - The focus on "expanding domestic demand" has been emphasized by high-level policies, prioritizing consumer demand as a key component of domestic growth strategies [7] - The anticipated increase in residents' net transfer payments and potential reforms in initial distribution may drive consumer spending in the coming years [7] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. indicate that periods of rising household income correlate with increased service and new-type consumption [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The market is shifting towards a dual narrative of "physical demand" and "consumption-side policies," suggesting a more stable investment approach amid macroeconomic uncertainties [8] - Key investment themes include industrial resources benefiting from AI and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like aviation, hotels, and food and beverage that are poised for recovery [9] - The consumption landscape is expected to see a deepening of consumer stratification, with high-net-worth individuals shifting towards more rational consumption patterns while the mass market focuses on cost-effective options [10][11] Group 6: Structural Opportunities - The consumption sector is likely to experience a focus on essential needs and low-cost emotional comfort, with demand for basic necessities remaining resilient [11] - Companies with global expansion strategies may mitigate domestic demand fluctuations, particularly in sectors like seasoning and snack foods targeting emerging markets [12] - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with top holdings including major liquor brands and agricultural firms [13]

Market Overview - The A-share market closed positively on August 5, with a total trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1%, reaching a new closing high for the year [1] - The leading consumption ETF (159928) saw a nearly 1% increase, with a trading volume of 470 million yuan and a net subscription of 208 million units, marking the ninth consecutive day of capital inflow, totaling over 1.4 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - The consumption ETF (159928) has a current scale exceeding 13.1 billion yuan, significantly leading its peers [1] - Key constituent stocks of the consumption ETF performed well, with Dongpeng Beverage rising over 3%, Luzhou Laojiao up over 2%, and Shanxi Fenjiu increasing over 1% [3] Policy and Economic Insights - Haitong International noted that six out of eight essential consumption sectors tracked in July maintained positive growth, while two sectors, including high-end and mid-range liquor, experienced negative growth due to new alcohol bans and adverse weather conditions [5] - The report highlighted that most liquor prices stabilized in July, with slight adjustments observed in various products [5] - The introduction of favorable policies, such as the implementation of a childcare subsidy system estimated at 100 billion yuan annually, is expected to stimulate essential consumption sectors [6] Industry Analysis - CITIC Securities indicated that the liquor industry has been under pressure this year, but signs of stabilization are emerging, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand and performance in the third quarter [7] - The report emphasized that leading liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends and buybacks, which may provide a safety margin for investments [7] - The analysis of Moutai's business model suggests a proactive approach to exploring new demand and adjusting its distribution network during the industry's cyclical downturn [8] Investment Strategy - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with over 68% of its top ten constituent stocks being essential consumer goods [8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy products and liquor, while remaining cautious about the potential decline in soft drink margins [6]