以下文章来源于商业弧光 ，作者李佳琪 当一个投资人去打碟 出品｜虎嗅商业消费组 作者｜李佳琪 编辑｜苗正卿 头图｜青山资本 商业弧光 . 听风者，捕光人，最准点的商业节拍 11月中旬，在位于北京三元桥某写字楼的青山资本办公区，虎嗅见到了创始人张野。 几周前，他刚从国际知名音乐节Untold演出回来。但眼前这位身着基础款黑色T恤和休闲裤的男士，看起来 似乎更像一位技术极客亦或大学青年教师，而非舞台上光芒四射的DJ。 "上台前和上台后都是无感状态，"张野告诉虎嗅。他说这话时语气平静，"我不知道为什么，在那么刺激喧 闹的场域里，就是没有任何生理学上的紧张。" 2025 年全球百大 DJ 榜单公布时，创投圈流传着一个荒诞又合理的八卦：排名 108 位、成为该榜单最高排 位华人的 "电子音乐人ZHANGYE"，竟是青山资本创始人张野。 张野的生活似乎是"割裂"的。左手在莫斯科柴可夫斯基音乐学院的殿堂里斩获国际作曲大奖，右手在创投 圈以 1200% 的 DPI（投入资本分红率）创下投资神话。既能在录音棚里调试合成器到凌晨，也能在项目会 上用两分钟拍板千万级投资。 "别人总问我音乐和投资怎么平衡，其实它们从来不是对立项。" ...

近期，国泰基金、招商基金、汇丰晋信基金、长城基金等多家公募机构召开了2026年度策略会，多位基 金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药等热门板块的后续投资机遇展开深度探讨。 展望2026年，有业内人士表示，市场值得乐观期待，上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利 +估值"双重驱动。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，相关产业政策及宏观经济支持政策值得期待。明年上 市公司整体业绩有望进一步改善，结构性亮点大概率增多，有利于提高市场风险偏好。当前A股自由流 通市值与居民存款的比值仍然处于相对较低的水平，股票市场或迎来更多新增资金。此外，当前市场估 值结构较为健康，并未出现整体过热的情况。 企业整体业绩大概率提升 从宏观层面来看，招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛认为，中国经济增长模式逐渐转向创新驱动，基建 和高技术产业拉动经济增长。权益方面，市场目前开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮动逻辑驱动的行情。综 合来看，2026年消费有望缓慢抬升，出口有韧性，商品价格温和走高，进而带动名义GDP上行，企业业 绩或持续修复，这将成为市场的基本面支撑。A股行情或逐渐过渡至公司业绩支撑的"缓而慢"的格局。 国泰基金宏观策略分析师杨轶婷表示，基 ...

Group 1 - Investors remain interested in European brands despite a slowdown in the global luxury fashion industry, with ongoing large-scale mergers and acquisitions in the consumer sector [1] - Sequoia China has announced the acquisition of a controlling stake in the global fashion brand Golden Goose Group, with Temasek and its wholly-owned asset management company participating as minority shareholders [1] - Golden Goose has seen its revenue grow from €266 million in 2020 to €655 million in the fiscal year 2024, demonstrating strong and steady growth [2] Group 2 - Golden Goose has a history of close ties with the venture capital community, with several private equity firms having managed it over the years; the original shareholders will retain a minority stake post-transaction [4] - CEO Silvio Campara will continue to lead the company alongside the existing management team, while Marco Bizzarri, with extensive experience in luxury brands, will serve as non-executive chairman [4] - The Chinese market is crucial for the internationalization of consumer brands, with Golden Goose having opened its flagship store in Beijing in 2016, selling out its initial limited edition sneakers [5] Group 3 - The global consumer sector is experiencing a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions, with notable transactions including Sequoia China's acquisition of Marshall Group for €1.1 billion [5] - Temasek has doubled its stake in Italian fashion brand Ermenegildo Zegna, and other significant acquisitions include the purchase of Japanese jewelry brand Tasaki and high-end department store SKP [5] - The consumer sector is viewed as a good investment opportunity due to relatively low asset prices and strong cash flows, with many industry experts believing it has resilient, anti-cyclical characteristics [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and current state of CVC (Corporate Venture Capital) in the context of traditional industries, particularly focusing on the investment platform "Caogen Zhiben" under New Hope Group, highlighting its role in addressing industry challenges and the changing perceptions of CVCs in the investment landscape [3][4][5]. Group 1: CVC's Role and Market Dynamics - The investment landscape has shifted, with CVCs being seen as potential solutions to challenges like "exit difficulties" and "poor liquidity" in the venture capital sector [3][4]. - The consumer sector, where Caogen Zhiben operates, has transformed from a "capital black hole" to a desirable investment area, with successful IPOs signaling a market recovery [4][5]. - The renewed activity in the IPO market has led to a decline in interest in CVCs, prompting discussions about their limitations and the need for caution when accepting industrial capital [5][6]. Group 2: Caogen Zhiben's Establishment and Strategy - Caogen Zhiben was established as an innovative investment platform to drive growth through external investments, with a focus on the food and consumer sectors [8][11]. - The decision to create Caogen Zhiben was influenced by the need for innovation and transformation within New Hope Group, with initial explorations leading to the establishment of multiple investment platforms [11][12]. - The platform's first project, "Fresh Life Cold Chain," was born out of a recognized market opportunity in cold chain logistics, which was previously a challenge for the dairy sector [22][24]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy and Approach - The leadership at Caogen Zhiben emphasizes the importance of having an "investment mindset" alongside traditional management skills, recognizing the need for adaptability in a changing market [7][8]. - The transition from a management-focused approach to an investment-oriented perspective was gradual, with significant learning from early projects and market experiences [31][32]. - The investment strategy involves identifying promising entrepreneurs and projects, with a focus on understanding market dynamics and consumer trends to make informed decisions [33][58]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Consumer Investment - Despite recent challenges in the consumer sector, there is a belief in the long-term viability of consumer investments, with a focus on structural opportunities that arise even in downturns [62][64]. - The approach to investment is characterized by a commitment to understanding evolving consumer behaviors and leveraging technological advancements to stay relevant in the market [54][58]. - The leadership maintains a positive outlook on consumer investment, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategic positioning during market fluctuations [63][64].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on the first day of December, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.34%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.31%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.21% [1] - Major technology stocks mostly saw gains, while copper prices reached a new high, leading to a strong performance in copper stocks. Other sectors such as aluminum, gold, heavy infrastructure, domestic real estate, and automotive stocks were also active, whereas gas, home appliance, and building materials stocks declined [1] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong continued to rise, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index increasing by 1.54% and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) gaining over 1% [1] Group 2 - Zhongyou Securities expressed a positive outlook on consumer investment opportunities, highlighting two categories: 1) New consumption opportunities in trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current trends of personalized and self-indulgent consumption, and benefit from the cultural export atmosphere [2] - The second category focuses on cyclical sectors, suggesting that if consumer stimulus policies continue and the economy gradually recovers, companies in the white wine, restaurant, and travel sectors will see favorable market conditions [2] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing leading companies in various consumer sectors, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, as well as e-commerce giants like Tencent, Kuaishou, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, highlighting a strong tech-consumer attribute [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector showed strong fluctuations, with the Hong Kong consumer ETF (513230) rising over 1% [1] - Leading stocks included Lao Pu Huang Jin, which surged nearly 5%, and Tongcheng Travel, which increased by approximately 3.5% [1] - Other notable gainers were Alibaba, Chow Tai Fook, Shenzhou International, Smoore International, and China Resources Beer, while Xiaomi Group, Miniso, Mixue Group, and Li Auto experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Mixue Ice City has introduced a "breakfast series" in select cities, including Dalian, Xi'an, Nanning, and Hangzhou, featuring products priced at 5 yuan [1] - The breakfast initiative is seen as an attempt to leverage the supply chain and expand consumption scenarios, reflecting a trend towards all-day operations in the new tea beverage and restaurant sectors [1] - This move may encourage more brands to explore category extensions and expand their operational scenarios [1] Group 3 - Zhongyou Securities remains optimistic about consumer investment opportunities, highlighting two categories: new consumption opportunities and cyclical recovery plays [2] - New consumption opportunities include sectors like trendy toys, gold and jewelry, and new tea beverages, which align with current consumer trends towards personalization and cultural export [2] - Cyclical recovery plays focus on sectors such as liquor and travel, which may benefit from ongoing consumer stimulus policies and economic recovery [2]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant drop in RMB deposits in July 2023, with a total decrease of 1.12 trillion yuan, marking a rare monthly decline compared to previous years [2] - The decline in deposits is attributed to various factors, including seasonal influences, reduced loan demand, and a shift in residents' financial behavior towards early mortgage repayments [4][6] - The overall deposit growth for the first seven months of 2023 was 18.98 trillion yuan, but the sharp drop in July affected the growth rate [2][6] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In July, household deposits decreased by 809.3 billion yuan, while corporate deposits fell by 1.53 trillion yuan, with fiscal deposits increasing by 907.8 billion yuan [2] - The decline in deposits is linked to a cooling demand for loans, as evidenced by a 200.7 billion yuan drop in household loans [2][4] - Seasonal factors, such as banks' assessment pressures at the end of the quarter, contributed to the short-term movement of funds [2][6] Group 2: Early Mortgage Repayment - Early mortgage repayments have become a significant driver of fund outflow, with residents opting to pay off loans to save on interest costs [4] - The average interest saved by paying off a 1 million yuan loan early can reach up to 73 million yuan [4] - The trend of early repayments is expected to moderate in the second half of 2023 as mortgage rates decrease [6] Group 3: Investment Behavior - The low interest rates have led to a shift in funds from deposits to wealth management products and the stock market, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [6] - The wealth management market is projected to grow from 25.34 trillion yuan in June 2023 to 30.67 trillion yuan by mid-2025, with an average annualized return of 3.39% [8] - Despite the growth in wealth management, there are concerns about risks associated with these products, prompting residents to be cautious in their investments [8] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Economic Impact - Consumer spending remains weak, with retail sales in July increasing by only 2.5%, below expectations [4] - The savings rate has climbed to 35%, indicating a preference for saving over spending, which could have a dampening effect on economic growth [4][10] - The overall economic outlook suggests a need for policies to stimulate consumption and investment, as the GDP growth rate is projected to be around 5% [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the consumer market, highlighting that consumer sectors have underperformed for four consecutive years, suggesting a potential rebound in the upcoming year if certain conditions are met [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The overall consumer performance this year has been poor due to a general economic slowdown, with retail sales growth at only 2.9% in October [5]. - Real estate prices have been declining, with predictions of continued downward pressure, impacting household wealth and consumer spending [7][13]. - The largest segment in consumer stocks is liquor, particularly Maotai, which has seen its wholesale price drop below 1600, down from over 3800 four years ago, indicating a significant decline in consumer sentiment [10]. Group 2: Future Consumer Outlook - If there is a recovery in the overall economy, low-priced consumer stocks with reasonable valuations could see significant growth [12]. - However, the likelihood of an economic recovery next year is low, with continued declines in real estate prices and a slowdown in exports [14]. - The article suggests that consumer spending will remain constrained due to shrinking household wealth, with a potential recovery not expected until 2027 [13]. Group 3: Specific Consumer Opportunities - Despite the overall economic challenges, there are specific consumer segments that may present opportunities, such as tourism-related spending from foreign visitors and affluent domestic consumers [16][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with significant scale advantages, which can outperform competitors even in a sluggish economy [18]. - New consumption trends, such as trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products, may still show growth potential despite the overall market conditions [18]. Group 4: Monitoring and Strategy - Investors are advised to keep an eye on policy changes that could impact the overall economy and consumer spending, while focusing on specific segments that are less affected by the broader economic downturn [20]. - The article suggests that the consumer sector should prioritize niche markets and segments that cater to affluent consumers or benefit from international tourism [18][20].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with 2024 being a pivotal year for market performance [1] - The long-term growth trajectory of China's economy is a fundamental support for the A-share market [1] - The current low interest rate environment is likely to persist, enhancing the value of equity asset allocation [1] Group 2: Consumption Investment - A favorable configuration opportunity for consumption investment has emerged, with a significant contribution expected from the consumption sector to A-share investments [2] - Traditional consumer stocks with improved competitive landscapes, strong cash flows, and high dividend yields are identified as valuable investment targets [2] - New consumption and service consumption sectors should be explored for growth and innovation potential, with a focus on global market expansion [2] Group 3: Risk Factors - Attention should be paid to the economic recovery process, including factors affecting consumer capacity and willingness, such as prices, employment, and disposable income growth [3] - The effectiveness and timing of consumption-boosting policies need to be monitored, as policy transmission takes time [3] - Industry competition dynamics, particularly in sectors with high brand saturation, should be observed for potential impacts on supply-demand balance and pricing [3]

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee's remarkable recovery is highlighted, with Q3 2025 total net revenue reaching 15.29 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 50.2%, and a net profit of 1.28 billion RMB, marking a milestone for the company [2][3] - The investment story behind Luckin Coffee involves key players like Dazhong Capital and IDG Capital, showcasing a successful collaboration to revive the company during its crisis [2][4] Investment Strategy - IDG Capital's entry into Luckin Coffee was well-timed, as they recognized the company's sales growth despite the fraud scandal, indicating a long-term belief in the coffee market's potential [4][5] - The investment approach of IDG Capital has been characterized by a focus on stable, long-term opportunities rather than chasing trends, allowing them to identify undervalued projects [9][10] Historical Context - IDG Capital has a long history of consumer investment, dating back to 2011, when they invested in Moncler during a global economic downturn, demonstrating their confidence in luxury brands [6][8] - The firm has also supported various successful brands, including Heytea and Three Squirrels, while maintaining a cautious investment strategy during market fluctuations [8][9] Globalization Focus - IDG Capital has established a clear globalization strategy, investing in companies that are inherently global rather than merely local brands seeking to expand [10][11] - The success of Chinese brands in international markets is reshaping perceptions of "Made in China," moving away from negative stereotypes towards recognition of quality and innovation [12][13]