景顺长城研究部基金经理 创金合信消费主题基金经理 随着经济产业变革与消费群体迭代，公募基金在消费领域的投资方法论正经历一场静默而深刻的重塑。 近日，在证券时报举办的"攻守之道：新消费'高波动'背后的定价逻辑重构"主题沙龙上，来自长城基 金、景顺长城基金、创金合信基金的基金经理在主题演讲环节一致认为，传统的、以白马龙头为核心的 投资框架已难以充分捕捉当前市场的结构性机遇，取而代之的是对细分新需求的深度挖掘。 他们特别指出，Z世代(1995～2009年间出生人群)的崛起，不仅带动了国潮、悦己、体验式消费等新兴 赛道的蓬勃发展，其独特的价值观念与消费习惯——更注重情绪价值、社交属性与可持续性——正在从 根本上重构消费产业的增长逻辑。因此，告别路径依赖，系统性地理解和投资于由新人群驱动的新需 求、新模式与新品牌，已成为把握未来消费投资机会的关键所在。 消费分层影响细分产业紧抓新生代需求 长城基金国际业务部副总经理、基金经理曲少杰认为，消费行业已告别传统增长模式，进入物质消费理 性化、精神消费奢侈化的双轨新常态。这一变化并非简单的消费降级，而是消费分层的凸显。考虑到Z 世代的消费潜力巨大，未来消费领域的布局应聚焦这一群 ...

今日（12.22），A股全面回暖，大消费震荡逆市回调，消费ETF（159928）微跌0.25%，全天成交额高达5.69亿元！资金面上，消费ETF（159928）全天获 净申购2.44亿份，近20日已累计"吸金"超4.2亿元！截至12月19日，消费ETF（159928）最新规模超211亿元，同类持续领先！ 海南本地股掀涨停潮。消息面上，12月18日，海南自由贸易港全岛封关运作正式启动。据三亚市商务局统计，封关首日，三亚全市免税销售额达1.18亿元。 其中，三亚国际免税城进店客流超3.6万人次，同比增长逾60%。 港股方面，港股通消费50ETF（159268）小幅收涨0.42%，喜提两连阳，全天成交额超3000万元！资金面上，港股通消费50ETF（159268）近10日累计净流 入超7400万元！港股新消费概念股过半飘红：泡泡玛特涨超4%，农夫山泉涨超1%，百胜中国、安踏体育微涨（标的指数成分股仅做展示，不作为个股推 介）。 聚焦大消费板块，估值性价比仍极具吸引力。截至12月22日，消费ETF（159928）标的指数市盈率TTM为19.4，处于近10年3.13%分位点，比近10年历史上 近97%的时间便宜，估值性 ...

近期，商业地产领域出现了一个看似矛盾的现象：同一个品牌，既在街头巷尾加速开设小巧便捷的社区 店，又不惜重金在核心商圈打造装修精致的体验式旗舰店。例如，咖啡巨头星巴克在中国市场，一面持 续加密布局满足日常需求的"啡快"店和社区店，一面在上海、北京、天津等地运营着宛如"咖啡剧院"的 臻选烘焙工坊旗舰店。 这种"小店"与"大店"并举的策略，并非品牌的左右为难，而恰恰说明大众的消费习惯正在重构消费市场 的发展趋势，也在重新塑造多元业态模式。 同一品牌下的"大小共生"状况 1、小店与大店同时生长，交错纵横 作为平价零食品牌连锁店，赵一鸣零食常常在社区附近开业，凭借着五百米消费圈的选址策略，实现高 密度布局。这与当下许多上班族消费群体下班后"顺路囤货"的消费习惯不谋而合，也使这些小店得以发 展壮大，形成毛细血管式的布局，逐步代替传统便利店的即时购买模式。 与此同时，赵一鸣零食也在广州开设旗舰店，用巨型零食堆出门头的视觉暴击，其目的远不止销售，更 是品牌的"立体广告牌"，让顾客在沉浸式的体验当中感受品牌的服务质量。 这种布局标志着品牌对实体店认知的进化，门店不再只是单一不变的销售渠道，而是根据其定位被赋予 了专业化职能。 ...

高端白酒价格的持续下跌是今年备受关注的现象，伴随库存积压、价格倒挂现象的加剧，关于消费断代与场景 变迁的讨论也始终持续。 公司内部可能存在经营节奏的变化和管理层变化对渠道信心的变化。但这些都是短期现象，我们要观察长期， 还是要 基于产品的品质、矩阵和品牌等核心竞争力 。 目前来看，能够提供确定性判断的是，高端白酒本身的格局没有大变化，品质和产品结构也可观察。今年公司 面对较大的外部需求冲击，但仍存偏刚性的收入增长考核，于是出现了渠道结构失衡和淡季供求失衡的情况。 但从长期看，平台低价产品的量是有限的，强大的品牌力，会让这部分产品很快被更多消费者消化。 当然，我们并不能断言当前价格就是本轮周期的最低价，这取决于明年需求端的变化、公司供给侧的增长考核 目标，以及产品结构中的增量品种等，这是由多维度共同决定的，所以判断短期价格的难度比较大。 但目前进入经销商开始亏损的阶段，产业整体价值链在收缩，其他白酒出现普遍性亏损，类似其他周期品全行 业现金流成本开始亏损、甚至最龙头的企业现金流也开始亏损。头部白酒公司生存能力足够强，不会亏损，但 产业链出现亏损时，他们也会有库存出清的阶段。 处于这样的周期调整阶段，我们可以观察 ...

中融亚太：洞察行业投资机会 在全球经济格局深度调整与技术革新加速演进的当下，市场环境正经历着前所未有的变革。中融亚太凭借对宏观趋势的敏锐捕捉与产业生态的深度解构，始 终致力于在复杂变局中发掘具有长期价值的投资赛道。通过整合全球资源与本土化运营经验，这家机构正以独特的视角审视不同行业的成长逻辑，为资本与 产业的高效对接搭建桥梁。 新能源领域的结构性机遇持续释放。随着全球碳中和目标的推进，光伏、储能与新能源汽车产业链展现出强劲的增长韧性。中融亚太观察到，光伏行业的技 术迭代正从追求转换效率向降低度电成本演进，钙钛矿电池的商业化突破或将重塑行业竞争格局。储能领域则呈现出技术路线多元化发展态势，液流电池在 长时储能场景的应用潜力与钠离子电池在资源约束下的替代价值，正吸引资本的密切关注。新能源汽车产业链的价值重心，正从整车制造向智能化零部件与 车规级芯片转移，软件定义汽车的时代已然开启。 在复杂多变的市场环境中，中融亚太始终坚持以深度研究为基础，以产业洞察为导向，在变革中把握机遇，在创新中创造价值。通过精准把握行业发展趋 势，深入理解企业成长逻辑，这家机构正与全球投资者共同探索可持续增长的投资路径，为推动产业升级与经济 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the retail industry in China, with a focus on online retail and the transformation of offline channels [3][20]. Core Insights - The retail industry in China is experiencing a dual engine of growth driven by consumption upgrades and cost-performance demands, with online retail showing a steady increase while offline retail is facing differentiation [3][20]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, with online retail accounting for approximately 30% of total retail sales [3][20]. - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, with the Z generation increasing spending on smart home appliances and emotional consumption products, while the silver economy is driving growth in health products and services for the elderly [4][20]. Summary by Sections Online Retail - The online retail market in China continued to grow steadily, with physical online retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year, although the penetration rate slightly declined [5][20]. - Traditional e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo dominate the market with a combined market share of 65%, while new platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are experiencing explosive growth through content-driven sales [5][6][20]. - Instant retail and community group buying are identified as key growth drivers, with instant retail sales increasing by 25% year-on-year [6][20]. Chain Supermarkets - The chain supermarket sector is undergoing a critical transformation, with 47.5% of surveyed enterprises reporting sales growth, while 45% face profit decline [9][20]. - The industry is experiencing a "store closure wave," with a closure-to-opening ratio of 0.67, indicating a contraction in overall scale [10][20]. - Leading companies like Walmart and Hema are adapting their strategies to focus on membership models and fresh produce, while local supermarkets are optimizing layouts and improving product quality [11][20]. Shopping Centers - The shopping center market is witnessing a recovery, with foot traffic in first to fifth-tier cities increasing by 8.7% year-on-year [12][20]. - Experience-driven upgrades are becoming essential, with a significant portion of shopping centers incorporating dining, entertainment, and family-oriented experiences [12][20]. - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating new growth opportunities, with projects like JD Mall and Suning integrating digital experiences with physical retail [14][20]. Industry Challenges and Future Trends - The retail industry faces challenges such as consumer fatigue and rising cost pressures, with rental and labor costs increasing by 4-5% [15][16][20]. - Future trends indicate that online retail will continue to grow, with a focus on instant retail and technological empowerment, while chain supermarkets will accelerate their transformation towards community-oriented and online integration [18][20]. - Shopping centers will deepen experience upgrades and innovate their operations, with a focus on sustainability and digital transformation [19][20].

两种白菜更映射出流通体系的深刻变革。155元白菜走的是"农场-检测中心-精品超市-高净值客户"的垂直链路，而9毛白菜则通过"合作社-批发市场-社区团 购-百姓餐桌"的网状体系流动。国务院发展研究中心的报告显示，我国生鲜农产品流通正形成"哑铃型结构"，两端的高端化和普惠式创新同时爆发，中间环 节损耗率从2018年的25%降至现在的12%。这种变革带来的不仅是价格差异，更是整个供给体系的效率革命。 当都市白领在社交平台晒出"白菜盲盒"开箱视频时，县城菜摊的移动支付提示音也此起彼伏。从155元到0.9元的价格光谱间，跃动着14亿人多元化的生活选 择，这才是中国市场最动人的底色。就像财经作家吴晓波说的："能同时容纳精品超市和菜市场的社会，才具备真正的经济韧性。" 在北京SKP商场的精品超市里，裹着保鲜膜的有机白菜标注着155元的价签，而三百公里外的山东寿光蔬菜批发市场，满载白菜的卡车正以每斤0.9元的价格 交割。这两种价格相差172倍的同种蔬菜，恰似当代中国消费图景的显微镜切片。 精品超市的有机白菜背后是完整的身份叙事：每棵白菜配备区块链溯源证书，记录着从延庆有机农场开始的288小时生长周期。农场主王伟展示的监测数据 ...

Core Insights - The emergence of "knockoff" stores in China's county markets reflects a unique consumer behavior where shoppers seek quality products at lower costs, bypassing traditional membership fees associated with major retail brands like Sam's Club [2][6] Group 1: "Alternative Economy" in County Markets - These knockoff stores effectively capture the middle-class consumer's desire for quality living at reduced costs, allowing access to similar product assortments without the annual fee of 260 yuan [2] - The selection strategy of these stores includes popular items from various retail giants, indicating a consumer preference for quality over brand loyalty [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Innovation - The sourcing methods of these stores demonstrate the resilience of China's supply chain, creating a new product combination model that transcends traditional retail boundaries [4] - The ability to integrate popular products from different retail systems showcases the advanced state of China's manufacturing and logistics networks [5] Group 3: Reflection of Consumer Stratification - The "knockoff Sam's" phenomenon highlights the deep stratification within China's consumer market, where urban consumers prioritize brand recognition while county consumers focus on practicality and cost-effectiveness [6] - County middle-class consumers use their purchasing behavior to affirm their social identity, seeking products that align with urban standards to feel contemporary [6] Group 4: Innovation vs. Regulation - The rise of these stores raises important discussions about the balance between innovation and regulation, as they fulfill unmet market needs while also posing challenges related to intellectual property and business norms [7] - The existence of these stores serves as a supplement to traditional retail systems, promoting equality in consumption [7] Group 5: Future of County Consumption - The growth of "knockoff Sam's" indicates significant potential in the county consumption market, which is expected to evolve towards more standardized and quality-focused retail environments [8] - Future county retail may feature a mix of national brand stores and localized innovative models, emphasizing the need to cater to the unique demands of this large market [8] - The phenomenon serves as a microcosm of the complexities and diversities within China's consumer market, highlighting both opportunities and challenges for the retail industry [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive month, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4% [1] - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening cycle, effective December 1, halting the balance sheet reduction that began in 2022 [2] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the appropriateness of the rate cuts, with some members advocating for more aggressive actions [4][6] Group 2 - The current economic situation in the U.S. is complex, with rising unemployment at 4.3% and inflation still above the Fed's target at 3% [6][20] - The lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates decision-making for policymakers, who must rely on private sector data [8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December are not aligned with the Fed's cautious stance, as indicated by Chairman Powell's comments [9][11] Group 3 - The economic landscape shows a bifurcation, where high-income individuals are benefiting from stock market gains while middle and low-income groups face employment anxieties [18][20] - The S&P Case-Shiller home price index showed only a 1.5% year-over-year increase, the lowest since July 2023, indicating a cooling in the housing market [13] - The Fed's policy adjustments aim to alleviate financing costs and enhance liquidity, but the underlying issues of income disparity complicate the effectiveness of these measures [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in the Chinese coffee market towards regional brands, highlighting the challenges faced by national chains and the unique strategies employed by local players to thrive in a competitive environment [6][8]. Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the number of chain coffee stores in China reached 66,568, with a net increase of 11,841 stores, marking a growth of 21.64% compared to the end of 2024 [6]. - Major brands like Luckin Coffee opened 3,866 new stores, surpassing 26,000 total stores, while Costa Coffee closed 28 stores and Starbucks saw a 41.78% decline in new openings [6][7]. - The industry is experiencing a significant contraction, with over 50,000 closures from August 2024 to August 2025, exacerbated by supply chain pressures and adverse weather affecting coffee production in key regions [7]. Regional Brand Strategies - Regional brands like Xinye Coffee are finding success by focusing on local characteristics and avoiding mainstream practices such as online sales and delivery services [8][10]. - Xinye Coffee, established in 2022, has opened 52 stores, with retail product sales accounting for 40% of revenue and a customer return rate exceeding 30% [8]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the changing consumer preferences, where regional brands are gaining traction due to their unique offerings and local ties, contrasting with the diminishing appeal of national chains [11][12]. - The founder of Xinye Coffee notes that without financial and supply chain advantages, regional brands face challenges in scaling nationally, suggesting a focus on "small but beautiful" business models [13][14]. Consumer Segmentation - Different generations exhibit varying coffee consumption behaviors, with younger consumers seeking diverse experiences and quality, while older generations prioritize convenience [18][19]. - Xinye Coffee targets consumers aged 25 to 35, emphasizing a balance between spending and saving [20]. Business Model and Operations - Xinye Coffee adopts a unique operational model by investing heavily in customer experience and service quality, including high-end amenities and a focus on in-store engagement [24][30]. - The company aims for a retail revenue model where in-store coffee sales support the business while retail products become a significant revenue stream, targeting a future ratio of 1:2 for in-store to retail sales [39]. Future Outlook - The founder expresses confidence that genuine quality and service will prevail in the competitive landscape, emphasizing the importance of a well-designed business model to balance profitability and consumer expectations [43][44]. - Xinye Coffee plans to open a new store in Kunming, continuing to focus on regional growth and brand recognition [45].