10 月市场观点：假期要闻概览与业绩线索指引 1、国庆假期要闻概览 假期居民旅游出行数据旺盛，且跨境旅游消费成为重要亮点，院线票房表现相对 偏弱；海外多国政局再添变数，美国政府时隔七年再度"停摆"、法国总理请辞、 日本首位女首相或将诞生，美、日、欧货币与财政政策走向不确定性增多。总体 看，海外政局变数与美联储降息预期波动更多主导资产定价，权益资产普遍震荡 收涨，黄金与比特币新高（详见正文）。 2、三季报业绩线索梳理 综合工业企业利润、中观数据等跟踪，预计三季报值得关注的方向主要涉及四类 （详见正文）：一是受益于外部降息和新兴需求拉动的有色金属（贵金属、工业金 属、小金属），二是反内卷催化下实现价格企稳的钢铁、煤炭、化工、光伏等；三 是延续稳健量增的汽车、锂电、电力、物流等；四是海内外需求共振驱动的 AI 条 线（算力相关）。 3、月度市场回顾： 证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 10 09 年 月 日 投资策略 9 月以来，海外降息如期落地且连续降息预期升温，黄金重启上行并创历史新高， 港股明显补涨，A 股表现相对偏弱。月度级别看，交投情绪重返合理区间，两融入 场放缓，ETF 则 ...

投资要点 ▌ 总量观点 10 月海外关注美国政府停摆、经济数据及 10 月降息预期。 预计中上旬美国政府延续关门，目前市场反应还算温和， 警惕持续关门引发的资产波动放大。国内：关注短期增量 对冲政策、中长期十五五风向和 10 月底 APEC 中美进展。A 股震荡整固后蓄势上行，关注政策催化、景气修复和降息 受益三大方向。 行业选择：关注三大方向：1）政策催化（十五五规划受益 的半导体、机器人、工业软件、军工等）；2）景气修复 （三季报盈利预期改善的 AI、创新药、新能源等）；3）降 息受益（联储预防式降息延续利好的有色、非银等）。 ▌ 本期金股组合： 电子：中微公司（688012.SH） 电子：复旦微电（688385.SH） 中小盘：思泉新材（301489.SZ） 电子：长飞光纤（601869.SH） 汽车：模塑科技（000700.SZ） 电力设备：美湖股份（603319.SH） 新能源：深圳新星（603978.SH） 有色：洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 有色：兴业银锡（000426.SZ） 化工：江山股份（600389.SH） 2025 年 10 月 08 日 十月策略和十大金股 —10 月十大金股 注： ...

2025.09. 30 A股三大股指集体收红,全天窄幅震荡,延续节前反弹态势,上证指数在3800点整数关口获 得支撑后震荡走高,全月整体在3800点上方震荡,距离3900点仅一步之遥。 2655家上涨 散户资金净流入 涨跌停比 SHT 个股市场涨跌比大致相当,市场赚钱效应一 般,盘面上,存储芯片、能源金属、半导体、锂电 池、军工板块强势,白酒、汽车服务板块走弱, 银行、保险、公用事业、旅游酒店等板块跌幅 居。 两市成交额 万亿元 ▲ 0.93% 今日两市成交额呈现温和放量特征,市场基础 流动性依然充裕,8月、9月A股市场日均成交金 额连续两个月超过2万亿元,这一水平较去年同 期显著提升,市场交投活跃度处于历史高位。 资金情绪 主力资金净流出 79. 机构以"乐观布局、持股过节"为主流共识、机构资金明显向有产业趋势和政策催化的领域集中,重点布 局科技成长主线,并进行调仓换股,从部分高位板块向估值更合理的领域转移;散户"积极参与、热衷题 材",散户更倾向于追逐市场热点,例如对存储芯片、有色金属等当日强势板块表现出较高的关注度和交易 意愿,也有部分投资者因长假不确定性而选择观望,整体情绪在普涨格局下偏向乐观。 散户 ...

历史上白酒如何走出调整期 20250924 摘要 2008 年金融危机期间，中国经济放缓冲击高端白酒消费，国务院 4 万 亿刺激计划带动市场回暖，白酒指数显著上涨，基本面逐季改善，政策 催化是关键因素。 2012-2015 年白酒行业受"三公消费"限制影响，中高端政商务需求 大幅削减，行业进入下行通道。降息降准、地产政策松绑及棚改货币化 等措施推动经济复苏。 2018 年贸易战和去杠杆政策导致经济下行，但财政加码等支持性政策 及领导层表态，形成"政策底"，恢复市场信心，宏观调控措施迅速推 动行业回暖。 当前（2025 年）宏观环境与历史存在较大差异，不宜简单对比。二季 度报表端确认出清，渠道库存减少，可能接近底部，应关注宏观调控、 库存变化及企业基本面。 2019 年初信贷数据超预期，消费环境转暖，白酒行业开始上升，外资 流入是重要因素。在业绩未明显改善情况下，白酒指数大幅上涨，估值 贡献显著。 Q&A 白酒行业在过去 30 年经历了哪些主要的调整周期？这些周期的背景和主要影 响因素是什么？ 过去 30 年，白酒行业经历了四个主要的调整周期。第一个周期是 1999 年至 2003 年，受亚洲金融危机和通缩影响 ...

Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The market style factors track the performance and volatility of different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth, to identify prevailing market trends and shifts in investor preferences [12][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Size Style**: Measure the relative performance of small-cap stocks versus large-cap stocks - **Value-Growth Style**: Measure the relative performance of value-oriented stocks versus growth-oriented stocks - **Volatility Metrics**: Calculate the volatility of each style to assess the stability of the trend - **Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the dominant market style and its stability, which can guide portfolio allocation strategies [12][14] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the dispersion and concentration of returns across industries and stocks to understand market breadth and sector rotation [12][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Measure the spread of excess returns across industry indices - **Sector Rotation Speed**: Quantify the rate at which different sectors outperform or underperform - **Stock Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of total market turnover contributed by the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: These factors help identify whether the market is driven by a few sectors or stocks, or if performance is more evenly distributed [12][14] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors measure the overall activity and liquidity in the market, including volatility and turnover rates, to gauge investor participation and sentiment [13][14] - **Construction Process**: - **Market Volatility**: Calculate the standard deviation of market returns over a specific period - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the trading volume relative to the total market capitalization - **Evaluation**: These factors are useful for assessing market sentiment and liquidity conditions, which are critical for timing and risk management [13][14] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors track trends, momentum, and liquidity in commodity markets to identify opportunities and risks in different commodity sectors [24][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Measure the directional movement in commodity prices for sectors like metals, energy, and agriculture - **Basis Momentum**: Calculate the change in the basis (spot price minus futures price) over time - **Volatility**: Assess the price fluctuations in commodity indices - **Liquidity**: Measure the trading volume and bid-ask spread in commodity markets - **Evaluation**: These factors provide a comprehensive view of commodity market dynamics, aiding in asset allocation and hedging strategies [24][30] 5. Factor Name: Option Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze implied volatility and skewness in option markets to infer market expectations and risk sentiment [33][34] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Measure the market's expectation of future volatility for indices like SSE 50 and CSI 1000 - **Option Skewness**: Calculate the difference in implied volatility between out-of-the-money calls and puts to assess directional bias - **Evaluation**: These factors are valuable for understanding market sentiment and hedging demand, especially during periods of uncertainty [33][34] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors evaluate the valuation and liquidity of convertible bonds to identify market trends and investment opportunities [36][39] - **Construction Process**: - **Conversion Premium**: Measure the difference between the market price of the bond and its conversion value - **Low Premium Proportion**: Calculate the proportion of bonds with low conversion premiums - **Market Liquidity**: Assess the trading volume and turnover in the convertible bond market - **Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the attractiveness and liquidity of convertible bonds, which are important for fixed-income and hybrid strategies [36][39] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Market Style Factors - **Size Style**: Small-cap outperformed large-cap during the week [12][14] - **Value-Growth Style**: Growth stocks outperformed value stocks during the week [12][14] - **Volatility**: Size style volatility decreased, while value-growth style volatility increased [12][14] 2. Market Structure Factors - **Industry Excess Return Dispersion**: Remained stable compared to the previous week [12][14] - **Sector Rotation Speed**: Decreased compared to the previous week [12][14] - **Stock Concentration**: Top 100 stocks and top 5 industries maintained their turnover proportions [12][14] 3. Market Activity Factors - **Market Volatility**: Slightly decreased during the week [13][14] - **Turnover Rate**: Remained at a high level over the past year [13][14] 4. Commodity Market Factors - **Trend Strength**: Increased for metals and precious metals, decreased for energy commodities [24][30] - **Basis Momentum**: Declined across all commodity sectors [24][30] - **Volatility**: Increased slightly across all commodity sectors [24][30] - **Liquidity**: Showed mixed performance across different sectors [24][30] 5. Option Market Factors - **Implied Volatility**: SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remained in a range-bound state [33][34] - **Option Skewness**: Call skewness decreased, indicating reduced bullish sentiment [33][34] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Conversion Premium**: Stable for bonds priced around par value [36][39] - **Low Premium Proportion**: Increased significantly, indicating rising demand for low-premium bonds [36][39] - **Market Liquidity**: Maintained healthy trading levels [36][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as the long holiday approaches, the market is expected to continue its oscillating and structural trends, with a focus on growth styles supported by industry trends and performance outlooks [2][5] - The macro strategy team suggests that the market may maintain a balanced approach, recommending investments in large-cap indices and the ChiNext, while high-risk investors should consider opportunities in technology, new energy, and Hang Seng Technology sectors [2][5] Group 2 - In the stock market, the small-cap style is favored, and the growth style is showing stronger performance, while the volatility of small-cap styles has decreased and the volatility of growth styles has increased [7] - The market's trading concentration remains stable, with the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries maintaining their share of total trading volume [7][8] - Market activity has seen a slight decrease in volatility, while turnover rates remain at a high level compared to the past year [8] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the trend strength of black and precious metals has increased, while the trend strength of energy and chemical sectors has decreased [19] - All sectors have experienced a slight increase in volatility, and liquidity performance has shown divergence across different sectors [19] Group 4 - In the options market, both the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 are in a state of oscillation, with a gradual decline in bullish option skew, indicating a lack of confidence for further upward movement in the market [22] Group 5 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight adjustment, with a notable increase in the proportion of low conversion premium bonds, indicating a trend of oscillation and elevation [24]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a strong rally, driven by the technology growth sector, with significant gains in the ChiNext Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index, indicating a positive market sentiment ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2]. Market Performance - A-share market continued its upward trend, with the ChiNext Index breaking through 3100 points, closing up 1.95% at 3147.35 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34 points, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.16% to 13215.46 points. The total market turnover reached 2.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 359 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.78% to 26908.39 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index surged 4.22% to 6334.24 points, with significant inflows from southbound funds totaling 9.441 billion HKD [2]. Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market saw a dual drive from high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, with the new energy industry chain experiencing a broad rally. The power equipment sector led with a 2.55% increase, while the automotive sector rose 2.05%, supported by better-than-expected new energy vehicle export data [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, technology and education sectors saw significant gains, with the Sapphire Index soaring 7.45% and the online education index rising 6.66%, driven by improved policy expectations [3]. Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - In the A-share market, consumer and cyclical sectors showed weak performance, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector declining by 1.02% due to falling pork prices. The retail and social services sectors also faced declines of 0.98% and 0.86%, respectively, due to weak consumption data [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the precious metals and healthcare sectors faced significant declines, with the precious metals index dropping 2.20% amid concerns over overbought conditions in gold [4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - The market exhibited a structural characteristic of "growth dominance, value consolidation," with a focus on technology and high-end manufacturing in the medium to long term. The A-share market is advised to focus on "new energy + hard technology" dual lines, particularly in the lithium battery and semiconductor sectors [5][6]. - For the Hong Kong market, a strategy focusing on "technology leaders + policy beneficiaries" is recommended, particularly in AI chips and cloud computing sectors, which still have upward potential [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen accelerated upward momentum since late June, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, reaching a ten-year high, driven by improved market sentiment and increased foreign institutional interest in Chinese stocks [1]. Group 1: Market Uptrend Sustainability - The sustainability of the current market rally is a key topic among institutions, with overseas entities attributing the rise to several factors, including improved macroeconomic expectations and targeted consumption policies [4]. - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields have been on the rise since June, indicating a more optimistic outlook among investors, which has facilitated a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market [4]. - The focus on micro-level structural highlights, such as AI computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and smart driving, is seen as crucial for supporting overall market profitability [7]. - Significant inflows of incremental capital have contributed to liquidity, with long-term funds like insurance capital entering the market, resulting in over 1 trillion yuan in new capital [10]. - Upcoming policy catalysts, such as the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the next five-year growth plan, are expected to provide clearer insights into the "anti-involution" policy and its implications for economic rebalancing [10]. Group 2: "Anti-Involution" Policy Focus - The "anti-involution" policy has gained significant attention from foreign institutions, with discussions centered on its timing, similarities and differences with the 2016-2018 supply-side reform, and key areas of focus [14]. - The policy aims to alleviate supply chain financing risks, curb excessive investment expansion, enhance product quality, and optimize resource allocation, thereby strengthening the long-term resilience of the Chinese economy [14]. - The current economic recovery foundation is still fragile, leading to expectations that the impact of this policy on economic growth may be less significant than that of the previous supply-side reform [15]. Group 3: Foreign Investor Sentiment - Foreign investor interest in the Chinese stock market has reached a near-high level, driven by factors such as the need to diversify risks from the U.S. market and the potential for renminbi appreciation [16]. - In July, net inflows from foreign capital into the Chinese stock market accelerated to $2.7 billion, up from $1.2 billion in June, primarily led by passive funds [17]. - As of late July, passive funds had accumulated a total inflow of $11 billion into the Chinese stock market for the year, surpassing the $7 billion for the entire year of 2023 [17]. - The trend of capital inflows has continued into August, with hedge funds net buying Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks [19]. - Despite the recovery in foreign capital sentiment, active funds remain underweight in their allocation to Chinese stocks, indicating potential for further inflows [21].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade is expected to drive a bullish trend in the defense and military industry, with historical data indicating that the sector typically outperforms the broader market before and after significant parades [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - Historical data shows that prior to the 2015 military parade, the China Securities Military Index saw a maximum increase of 47% from July to August [1]. - In the lead-up to the 2019 military parade, the index recorded a maximum increase of 16% from August to September [2]. Current Market Trends - The defense and military ETF (512810) has experienced significant upward momentum, with nearly 20% cumulative growth since the beginning of the year and 8 out of the last 9 weeks showing gains [2]. - Recent trading activity has set multiple historical records, including a peak trading volume and a record high in financing balance [2]. Market Volatility - The sector has seen increased volatility due to profit-taking by investors after prior gains and a surge in leveraged funds entering the market [6]. - Despite the volatility, the ETF has maintained strong trading interest, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan for eight consecutive days [7]. Future Outlook - The defense and military sector is anticipated to benefit from multiple catalysts, including policy support, a surge in military trade, and advancements in AI applications [8]. - The upcoming military parade is expected to showcase new equipment and technologies, which could further enhance investor interest [8][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" are expected to create a favorable environment for the military industry, with projected growth in contract liabilities and inventory levels [10]. Investment Opportunities - The ETF (512810) is positioned to capture both traditional military assets and emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace and military AI, making it an efficient investment vehicle for the defense sector [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market closed positively on August 5, with a total trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1%, reaching a new closing high for the year [1] - The leading consumption ETF (159928) saw a nearly 1% increase, with a trading volume of 470 million yuan and a net subscription of 208 million units, marking the ninth consecutive day of capital inflow, totaling over 1.4 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - The consumption ETF (159928) has a current scale exceeding 13.1 billion yuan, significantly leading its peers [1] - Key constituent stocks of the consumption ETF performed well, with Dongpeng Beverage rising over 3%, Luzhou Laojiao up over 2%, and Shanxi Fenjiu increasing over 1% [3] Policy and Economic Insights - Haitong International noted that six out of eight essential consumption sectors tracked in July maintained positive growth, while two sectors, including high-end and mid-range liquor, experienced negative growth due to new alcohol bans and adverse weather conditions [5] - The report highlighted that most liquor prices stabilized in July, with slight adjustments observed in various products [5] - The introduction of favorable policies, such as the implementation of a childcare subsidy system estimated at 100 billion yuan annually, is expected to stimulate essential consumption sectors [6] Industry Analysis - CITIC Securities indicated that the liquor industry has been under pressure this year, but signs of stabilization are emerging, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand and performance in the third quarter [7] - The report emphasized that leading liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends and buybacks, which may provide a safety margin for investments [7] - The analysis of Moutai's business model suggests a proactive approach to exploring new demand and adjusting its distribution network during the industry's cyclical downturn [8] Investment Strategy - The consumption ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with over 68% of its top ten constituent stocks being essential consumer goods [8] - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from policy support, particularly dairy products and liquor, while remaining cautious about the potential decline in soft drink margins [6]