证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 投资策略 3 月策略观点与金股推荐：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 一、3 月市场观点：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 二月以来，多重因素正在推动资金定价向"涨价"条线倾斜。其一，叙事层面，AI 科技革命的叙事定价逻辑开始向实物资产"外溢"；其二，供需层面，在逆全球化 的大背景下，地缘变数的增多进一步带动了各国的资源战略调整，致使生产端实 际供需偏紧的局面可能将在更多商品中陆续显现；其三，价格数据层面，无论是海 外还是国内，通胀数据呈现同步上行，产业链中的涨价环节也有所扩散；其四，资 金轮动视角下，尽管 AI 产业的长期趋势无虞，但融资扩张与资本回报的矛盾越久， 资金定价的分歧也将更易放大。每一次科技条线的颠簸，都难免引发资金分流，而 在非 AI 需求尚未确认转强之前，兼顾供给约束基础和需求改善预期的"涨价"条 线显然比其他方向更具吸引力，也更容易在资金轮动中受益。 大势层面，中期趋势向好，市场有望震荡再向上。中期维度，分子与分母共振向好 的期待没有改变。盈利层面，供需双向发力的政策路径明确，价格端修复的趋势延 续，上游向 ...

对于马年股市"开门红"，市场多评价"意料之内"。"这是一个积极的信号，表明在众多政策利好的推动 之下，市场对后续发展抱有积极预期。"无锡市上市公司协会相关负责人表示，抛开"过去十年节后'开 门红'占多数"这种经验性分析不谈，马年股市开门红，是政策强力托底、资金集中回流、外围普涨带 动、春节消费超预期等叠加形成的共振行情。 值得关注的是，全国两会前后，A股市场或将以政策催化为核心驱动力，资金将围绕政策导向的产业主 线与主题机会展开博弈，呈现"政策热点轮动、风格快速切换"的特征。此外，随着上市公司2025年年报 披露进入密集期，以及后续2026年一季报逐步亮相，业绩超预期标的有望获得资金重点聚焦，成为后续 行情的核心主线之一。（陈文君） 从行业分布来看，此次飘红的锡企主要集中在存储芯片、磷化工、环保设备、新能源汽车和电网设备等 当下市场热点板块。个股方面，除涨停个股外，德科立、亿能电力、怡达股份、电工合金等企业股价也 表现亮眼，涨幅居前，形成鲜明的板块联动效应。 太极实业表现强劲，当日涨幅9.91%，成交额达32.66亿元，成交量3.06亿股。"太极实业的涨停与存储 芯片行业的持续升温密切相关。"无锡市上市公司协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that stocks priced below 5 yuan are not necessarily poor investments, but rather potential opportunities that have been overlooked by the market, especially in the context of supportive policies and solid performance metrics in 2026 [1][3]. Summary by Categories Screening Criteria for Potential Stocks - The article outlines a four-part framework for identifying potential stocks under 5 yuan, which includes: 1. Excluding ST and delisting risk stocks, as per the latest regulations [3]. 2. Ensuring a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio greater than 0 and less than 20, indicating stable profitability and undervaluation [4]. 3. Total market capitalization of at least 5 billion yuan and an average daily trading volume of at least 50 million yuan to ensure liquidity [5]. 4. Aligning with 2026 policy priorities such as long-term special bonds and infrastructure investments [6]. Promising Investment Sectors - The article identifies four key sectors that are expected to benefit from the current market conditions: 1. **Infrastructure and Power Infrastructure**: Supported by a 936 billion yuan special bond for equipment updates and infrastructure investments, with many stocks priced between 2-4 yuan and P/E ratios of 10-13 [8]. 2. **Local Banks**: Stocks of local banks priced at 2-3 yuan with P/E ratios of 5-9 and dividend yields of 4-5%, providing a stable income stream [10]. 3. **Steel and Basic Materials**: Benefiting from a recovery in manufacturing and equipment updates, with stocks priced at 2-3 yuan and P/E ratios under 20, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance [11]. 4. **Public Utilities and Port Logistics**: These stocks, often priced at 2-3 yuan, provide consistent cash flow and dividends, making them resilient investments [12]. Investment Strategy - The article advises a cautious approach to investing in low-priced stocks, emphasizing that they are not a quick path to wealth but rather a strategy for steady returns through valuation recovery and policy support [12]. - Key practical tips include diversifying investments, focusing on earnings rather than speculative concepts, and setting stop-loss limits to manage risks effectively [13][14][15].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction and a decline, with major indices closing lower, reflecting a weak sentiment among investors. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.64% to 4075.92 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.44% to 13952.71 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.55% to 3260.28 points. The total market turnover was 2.19 trillion, down 12.3% from the previous trading day, marking four consecutive days of declining volume [2][5][6]. Sector Performance - The financial and consumer sectors showed resilience, with the banking sector leading gains, up 1.66%. Notable performers included Xiamen Bank, which hit a ceiling price, and Chongqing Bank, which rose by 5.73%. Other consumer-related sectors such as food and beverage, textiles, and retail also saw increases, attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and related consumption activities [5][6]. - In contrast, the technology sector faced significant declines, with the photovoltaic sector dropping 6.67% and the semiconductor sector also under pressure. The overall sentiment in these sectors was negatively impacted by profit-taking and external market influences, particularly from the U.S. tech stocks [5][6]. Bond Market - The bond market saw a comprehensive rise in government bond futures, with the 30-year contract (TL2603) increasing by 0.38% to 112.17. The central bank's net injection of 645 billion yuan indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity, which is expected to support bond market sentiment in the medium to long term [7][10]. Commodity Market - The commodity index fell by 2.14%, with significant declines in precious metals and basic metals. The South China commodity index closed at 2753.3 points, with silver and lithium carbonate experiencing drops exceeding 10%. Conversely, the energy sector showed strength, with slight increases in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [7][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that despite the current market adjustments, there are still opportunities in sectors driven by policy catalysts and consumption trends. Key areas of focus include photovoltaic technology, commercial aerospace, and consumer sectors, which are expected to benefit from upcoming policy support and seasonal consumption increases [6][10]. - The report also highlights the potential for long-term investments in precious metals, driven by central bank policies and geopolitical risks, despite short-term volatility [7][10]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are supported by government policies and technological advancements. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in these areas for potential investment opportunities [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry has entered a deep adjustment period, but recent positive changes in the real estate and domestic demand sectors, along with Moutai's market-oriented transformation, are stimulating incremental demand and driving valuation recovery [1]. Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Positive changes in the real estate sector and domestic demand are noted, recommending companies with price elasticity and those expected to clear inventory gradually [2]. - The real estate industry is showing signs of recovery, with policies becoming more favorable. The government prioritizes boosting domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2]. - The real estate market is stabilizing after years of adjustment, with recent reports indicating that many real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, signaling a shift in the market [2]. Group 2: Moutai's Market-Oriented Reform - Moutai's market-oriented reform, initiated in December 2025, aims to adjust product structure, pricing systems, and distribution networks, which has led to increased demand and stable pricing [3]. - The online platform "i Moutai" has seen a surge in purchases, and the demand for core products is expected to support pricing as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. - Recent price increases for Moutai products indicate a successful strategy of exchanging price for volume, with significant price increases noted, such as a rise of over 1600 yuan for certain products [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Stock Performance - The white liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its cycle, with significant inventory clearance observed since Q3 2025 [4]. - The stock prices of white liquor companies have been under pressure due to weak market demand and liquidity issues, but stabilization in pricing could alleviate this pressure [4]. - If more positive signals are released from the policy level, it could further catalyze stock prices in the white liquor sector [4].

| | 钢材 | RB2605 | 市场情绪影响钢价走强 | 螺纹钢波动参考3000-3200区间,热卷波动参考 3150-3350区间走势。做多卷螺价差可继续持有 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 0 | | 端 | 铁矿 | 12605 | 钢厂补库兑现,港口库存压力持续增大 | 可在800左右逢高布局空单 | | 色 | | | | 单边震荡偏强看待,区间参考1050-1250,多焦 | | | 焦煤 | JM2605 | 山西产地煤价有所松动,蒙煤跟随盘面波动,盘面强势反弹 | 煤空焦炭 | | | 焦炭 | J2605 | 主流焦企提涨落地,港口贸易价格持稳,盘面强势反弹 | 单边震荡偏强看待,区间参考1650-1850,多焦 煤空焦炭 | | | 硅铁 | SF603 | 供需暂无重大矛盾,成本有提涨预期 | 贯幅震荡,区间参考5500-5900 | | | 锰硅 | SM605 | 锰矿补库接近尾声,猛硅供需改善 | 宽幅震荡,区间参考5600-6000 | | | 铜 | CU2603 | 铜价再创新高,现货贴水大幅走扩 | 观望,主力关注 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Sector Industry Overview - The real estate sector has shown signs of improvement since early 2026, ranking 18th among 31 Shenwan industries, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and liquidity [1][4] - Despite a 45% increase in the Shenzhen Foreign Real Estate Index, it still underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting potential for catch-up in undervalued segments [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The new housing market remains weak, with transaction volumes significantly down year-on-year, and a projected overall decline in transaction area for the year, although the rate of decline may slow [1][6] - **Policy Dependency**: The recovery of the new housing market is heavily reliant on policy support, such as easing measures in first-tier cities and adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][7] - **Inventory Levels**: The inventory of unsold new homes in 70 cities is at a historical high, with varying de-stocking cycles across cities, indicating significant pressure on overall inventory [1][8] - **Land Market Trends**: The land market has seen a decline in transaction area and revenue, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and limiting new housing supply [1][9] Additional Important Points - **Second-Hand Housing Market**: The second-hand housing market has also experienced a decline in transaction volume, with expectations of price stability but potential for slight decreases due to increased listings and stagnant purchasing power [1][10] - **Policy Impact**: Current policies are insufficient for a substantial turnaround in the real estate market, with only minor measures being implemented [1][11][12] - **Investor Sentiment**: There are mixed expectations among investors regarding the real estate sector, with some anticipating a recovery in 2026 while others remain cautious due to poor new housing data [1][13] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Beike and developers such as Binhai Group and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of demand-side policies [1][14] - **Risks**: Ongoing declines in new housing sales and construction data pose risks to the sector, although the current market position still offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for investments [1][15]

本轮周期修复总量难创新高。 我们认为年内利率下降空间和收储政策力度可能比传闻预想要温和。 资金轮动＋政策催化促进板块 短期若参与板块波段行情建议选择土储优质、包袱小的标的。 今日AH地产板块走势较强，我们认为和资金轮动以及上海放松限购政策传闻有关。 我们认为年内利率下降空间和收储政策力度可能比传闻预想要温和。 重点关注：年度金股【滨江集团】 风险提示：事件驱动行情波动较大 资金轮动＋政策催化促进板块 今日AH地产板块走势较强，我们认为和资金轮动以及上海放松限购政策传闻有关。 短期若参与板块波段行情建议选择土储优质、包袱小的标的。 本轮周期修复总量难创新高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the increasing demand and supply constraints in the rare earth industry, leading to price increases and investment opportunities [2][3]. Group 2 - As of January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.02%, while the rare earth industry index rose by 2.55%, with several stocks experiencing significant gains, including Zhong Rare Earth and Greenland Technology [1]. - The rare earth ETF managed by Jiashi (516150) increased by 2.66%, with a trading volume of 228 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.79%. Over the past six months, this fund has seen a growth of 64.35% [1]. Group 3 - China is considering tightening export license reviews for medium and heavy rare earths, which could significantly impact Japan, as it relies almost entirely on China for these materials. If restrictions last for three months, Japan could face a loss of 660 billion yen, escalating to 2.6 trillion yen if prolonged for a year [2]. - Myanmar's Kachin State plans to halt all rare earth mining activities by December 31, 2025, which previously contributed about 40% of the global supply of medium and heavy rare earths. This will lead to an 80% year-on-year decline in rare earth exports to China [2]. Group 4 - The domestic mining quota for medium and heavy rare earths has been frozen at 19,200 tons per year for five consecutive years, with no increase planned for 2026. The global demand for medium and heavy rare earths is projected to exceed 40,000 tons in 2026, while supply is estimated at around 24,000 tons, resulting in a supply gap of 16,000 to 20,000 tons [2]. Group 5 - Prices for rare earth elements are rising due to supply constraints, with the average price of dysprosium reported at 1,762,500 yuan per ton, increasing by 10,000 yuan in a single day. The average price of dysprosium oxide is 1,352,500 yuan per ton, up by 2,500 yuan [2]. Group 6 - Demand for rare earths is surging in sectors such as electric vehicles, wind power, and humanoid robots, with projected demand for rare earth permanent magnets in the electric vehicle sector reaching 88,000 tons by 2026, and 44,000 tons in the wind power sector [3]. - The overall strength in the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to create a synergistic effect, with upward adjustments in economic growth forecasts for major global economies and a weaker US dollar providing a favorable macro environment for rising prices [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment, with major indices closing down: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.10%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.77%. The STAR 50 Index led the decline with a drop of 2.22%, indicating significant profit-taking pressure in the technology growth sector [1] - The total trading volume in both markets was 1.77 trillion yuan, a substantial decrease of 318.8 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting an increase in market caution [1] - The Hong Kong market also weakened, with the Hang Seng Technology Index dropping over 2% [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors showed positive performance, with Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery rising by 1.24%, and Retail Trade increasing by 1.49%. Non-bank financials rose by 1.59%, primarily driven by the insurance sector, which acted as a stabilizing force in the market [1] - In contrast, previously active TMT sectors such as Electronics (-2.42%), Communications (-1.89%), and Media (-1.63%) saw significant declines, indicating a "high-low switch" and a moderate rotation from growth to value [1] Key Drivers of Sector Performance - The aerospace equipment sector experienced a collective surge, with the Aerospace Equipment Select Index soaring by 10.01%. This was driven by high policy certainty and the opening of new market spaces in commercial aerospace, including satellite internet and space tourism [2] - The insurance sector's strength was attributed to a regulatory easing that lowered risk factors for investments in the CSI 300 and STAR Market stocks, enhancing capital efficiency and potential returns. The insurance sector's performance is supported by a favorable long-term interest rate environment and the appeal of stable cash flow and high dividend assets during market volatility [2] Future Outlook - Systemic risks at the index level are considered low, but structural differentiation is expected to continue. The policy environment aims to stabilize the market, and liquidity conditions are friendly, providing bottom support [2] - Short-term pressures on technology growth sectors need to be addressed, and future opportunities are likely to be characterized by precise structural market conditions rather than a broad bull market [2]