——北交所策略专题报告 北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 广州车展开幕聚焦智能电动化产业链机遇，润农节水拟定增 8451 万元 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 广州车展本周开幕，关注北证汽车产业链优质新股+高增标的 第二十三届广州国际汽车展览会于 2025 年 11 月 21 日至 30 日举办。本届广州国 际车展上共有首发新车 93 台，展车总数 1085 台，其中新能源车 629 台。北交所 内汽车产业链企业数量已经达到 30 家，产业链内包含大鹏工业、开特股份、林 泰新材、苏轴股份、奥迪威、吉冈精密、骏创科技、巴兰仕、九菱科技、明阳科 技、旺成科技、华原股份、邦德股份、威贸电子、捷众科技、三祥科技、大地电 气、易实精密、建邦科技、世昌股份、华洋赛车、安徽凤凰、舜宇精工、天铭科 技、同心传动、浩淼科技、泰德股份、智新电子、德众汽车、华阳变速，关注新 股大鹏工业，传统高增长标的林泰新材、开特股份等。林泰新材（920106.BJ） 掌握湿式纸基摩擦片制造的核心技术，自主研发的湿式纸基摩擦片产品打破了国 北证行业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 68.92% year-on-year increase in revenue to 326 million yuan and a 131.19% increase in net profit to 107 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected net profits of 141 million yuan, 202 million yuan, and 295 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.53 yuan, 3.61 yuan, and 5.28 yuan per share [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity, with new facilities expected to be completed by November 2025, aiming for an annual capacity of 80 million pieces by the end of 2025 and 97 million pieces by 2026 [4] - The domestic market for Electronic Limited Slip Differential (ELSD) is expected to grow significantly, driven by the need for improved vehicle stability and safety, particularly in electric vehicles [5] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 207 million yuan, with a projected increase to 481 million yuan in 2025E and 890 million yuan in 2027E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [6][9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42.1% in 2023A to 50.5% in 2027E, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.8% to 33.1% over the same period [10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 18.7% in 2023A to 28.4% in 2027E, indicating strong profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue met expectations, but profit margins were lower than anticipated due to a decline in high-margin exports and one-time maintenance costs [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 326 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.9%, with a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 131.2% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in profit margins in Q4 2025 as one-time costs clear and sales volumes increase [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025E are 480 million yuan, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 85.4% [2][7] - The gross margin for 2025E is expected to be 45.3%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 25.7% [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 703 million yuan and 890 million yuan in 2026E and 2027E, respectively [2][7] Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 93.32 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2,732 million yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35 for 2025E, decreasing to 24 in 2026E and 18 in 2027E [2][3] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 39.4%, down from previous quarters, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin exports and increased one-time maintenance costs [5] - The report highlights that the company is focusing on domestic markets, particularly in supplying to new energy vehicle manufacturers, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in Q4 2025, with a return to stable profit margins and continued growth in both domestic and export sales [5] - The introduction of new products, such as the electronic control limited-slip differential (ELSD), is anticipated to contribute to the company's growth trajectory starting next year [5]

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Kema Material Co., Ltd. has transitioned its IPO application status to "submitted for registration," indicating progress in its public offering process [1] Company Overview - Kema Material specializes in the research, production, and sales of dry friction plates and wet paper-based friction plates, holding the second-largest market share in the domestic dry friction plate sector [2][3] - The company has established long-term partnerships with major domestic clutch manufacturers and supplies products to well-known automotive brands [2][3] Market Position and Growth - The export value of "clutch and its parts" from China is projected to grow from 75.69 billion in 2022 to 91.76 billion in 2024, reflecting increasing overseas demand [2] - Kema Material's dry friction plates are expected to see a global market expansion from approximately 120 billion to 130 billion over the next three years [9] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is reported at 202.16 million, 198.96 million, and 249.03 million respectively, with net profits increasing from 41.65 million to 71.03 million [5] - The gross margin for the main business has improved from 34.87% in 2022 to 47.24% in 2024, indicating strong profitability and cost control [5] Research and Development - Kema Material has a strong focus on R&D, with stable investments in research expenses, which were 13.68 million, 13.06 million, and 13.72 million from 2022 to 2024 [5] - The company holds 78 national patents, including 12 invention patents, showcasing its commitment to innovation [4] International Expansion - Kema Material is actively pursuing international markets and has established good relationships with global automotive parts giants like Eaton and ZF [9] - The company aims to enhance its product competitiveness and expand its sales scale in global niche markets [9] New Business Development - The company is venturing into torque dampers, which are applicable in both traditional and new energy hybrid vehicles, with sales revenue for these products growing significantly from 0.12 million in 2022 to 723.58 million in 2024 [11] - Kema Material's upcoming fundraising projects include upgrading its production capabilities for environmentally friendly clutch friction materials [11]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange has seen a decrease in trading volume and value, with a total of 274 listed companies as of August 31, 2025, and a notable decline in trading activity during the last week of August 2025 [2][3]. Trading Activity - As of August 31, 2025, the North Exchange had a total trading volume of 66.58 billion shares for the week, a decrease of 17.87% compared to the previous week [3]. - The total trading value for the same week was 1645.28 billion yuan, down 21.09% from the previous week [3]. - The average trading price was 24.71 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.92% [3]. - The North Exchange 50 Index fell by 1.63% to 1574.25 points, with 14 stocks rising and 36 falling [3]. New Listings and IPOs - One company, Shanghai Balanshi Automotive Testing Equipment Co., Ltd., successfully listed on the North Exchange on August 28, 2025, becoming the 274th listed company [8]. - Balanshi's stock price surged by 205.13% on its first trading day, closing at 48.15 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 39.48 billion yuan [8]. - The company aims to raise 300 million yuan for projects related to the intelligent transformation of automotive maintenance equipment [9]. Financial Performance - Balanshi reported revenues of 6.43 billion yuan, 7.94 billion yuan, and 10.57 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 30.04 million yuan, 80.55 million yuan, and 129 million yuan respectively [10]. - In the first half of 2025, Balanshi's revenue grew by 5.65% to 540 million yuan, and net profit increased by 11.80% to 77.53 million yuan [10]. Upcoming IPOs - One company, Sanxie Electric Co., Ltd., opened for subscription on August 26, 2025, with a target to raise 159 million yuan for expansion and R&D projects [12][14]. - Sanxie Electric reported revenues of 2.87 billion yuan, 3.62 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 26.98 million yuan, 48.64 million yuan, and 56.33 million yuan respectively [15][16]. Regulatory Status - As of August 31, 2025, there were 153 companies awaiting review on the North Exchange, with 140 under inquiry and 10 submitted for registration [5]. - No companies received IPO registration approval during the last week of August 2025 [17]. Company Developments - Jiangsu Jingchuang Electric Co., Ltd. passed the listing committee meeting on August 29, 2025, and plans to raise 175 million yuan for smart production upgrades [26]. - Zhejiang Kema Materials Co., Ltd. submitted its registration on August 26, 2025, aiming to raise 206 million yuan for environmental projects [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Kema Friction Material Co., Ltd. (Kema Materials) has submitted its IPO registration, with the underwriting agency being Guotou Securities, taking 15 days from approval to registration submission [2]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets as of December 31, 2024, are approximately 628.07 million yuan, an increase from 557.38 million yuan in 2023 and 545.75 million yuan in 2022 [3]. - Total equity attributable to shareholders reached approximately 558.60 million yuan in 2024, up from 487.07 million yuan in 2023 and 460.70 million yuan in 2022 [3]. - The company reported operating revenues of approximately 249.03 million yuan in 2024, compared to 198.96 million yuan in 2023 and 202.16 million yuan in 2022 [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is approximately 71.03 million yuan, an increase from 49.05 million yuan in 2023 and 41.65 million yuan in 2022 [3]. - The gross profit margin improved to 47.39% in 2024 from 41.48% in 2023 and 34.91% in 2022 [3]. - The weighted average return on net assets was 13.68% in 2024, up from 10.46% in 2023 and 9.55% in 2022 [3]. Growth Projections - For the first half of 2025, the company expects an 11.37% year-on-year increase in operating revenue, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to grow by 30.68% [4]. - For the first nine months of 2025, projected operating revenue is between 194 million yuan and 200 million yuan, indicating a growth rate of 2.55% to 5.72% [4]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be between 61 million yuan and 65 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.05% to 17.27% [4]. Shareholding Structure - The actual controllers of the company, Wang Zonghe, Liao Aixia, Wang Tingting, and Xu Changcheng, collectively control 52.97 million shares, accounting for 84.40% of the total share capital [6]. - Wang Zonghe and Liao Aixia are a married couple, while Xu Changcheng is their son-in-law, and Wang Tingting is their daughter [6]. Management Team - Wang Zonghe has extensive experience in the friction materials industry, having held various leadership positions since 1995 and currently serving as the chairman [6]. - Liao Aixia has a background in education and library services, currently serving as a director and assistant general manager [7]. - Xu Changcheng, with a background in education and sales, has been with the company in various roles since 2010 and currently serves as a director and general manager [7]. - Wang Tingting, who holds Australian permanent residency, has transitioned from sales roles to brand management within the company [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue growth of 168% in H1 2025, with a gross profit margin increase of 6.6 percentage points to 49% [2] - The growth is attributed to the domestic substitution of wet paper-based friction plates and the dual benefits from the automotive industry's expansion, alongside successful overseas market penetration [2][3] - The company is expanding into new fields such as electronic control limited-slip differentials (ELSD), which are expected to drive substantial growth due to their application in electric vehicles [4] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 205 million yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 69 million yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 68%, 168%, and 147% respectively [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 104 million yuan, with a net profit of 37 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 42% and 103% respectively [2] - The company’s revenue from the new energy vehicle sector reached 53.34 million yuan in H1 2025, a 113% increase year-on-year, contributing to 28% of total revenue [3] Growth Opportunities - The global market for electronic differentials is projected to grow from 4.22 billion USD in 2024 to 11.14 billion USD by 2032, indicating a significant opportunity for the company's products [4] - The company has established partnerships with major domestic and international automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market position and growth potential [4] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profit for the company is 150 million yuan for 2025, 215 million yuan for 2026, and 323 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 37.99, 26.59, and 17.65 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company maintains a leading position in the domestic market for wet paper-based friction plates, with significant growth potential in the ELSD (Electronic Limited Slip Differential) segment, which is expected to open up a market space worth billions [1][3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 205 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 67.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75.16 million yuan, up 167.81% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution in the wet paper-based friction plate market and the introduction of new products in the ELSD segment, which could serve as a second growth curve [1][3] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 49.01%, an increase of 6.60 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024 [1] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 141 million yuan, 201 million yuan, and 295 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.53 yuan, 3.61 yuan, and 5.28 yuan [1][4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.5, 28.3, and 19.4 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [1][4] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is the only domestic brand providing wet paper-based friction plates for passenger vehicles in bulk, benefiting from the growth in sales and market share of domestic brands [2] - The collaboration with Dong'an Qifa has led to significant increases in production and sales in the commercial vehicle sector, with year-on-year growth of 119.62% and 166.52% respectively in the first half of 2025 [2] - The global electronic differential market is projected to grow from 4.22 billion USD in 2024 to 11.14 billion USD by 2032, with the company already securing positions in the supply chains of major domestic and international automotive manufacturers [3]

Group 1: Company Insights - The report initiates coverage on Mai Fushi (2556.HK) with a "Buy" rating, projecting a target market value of 18.65 billion RMB, indicating a 50% upside potential from current levels [2] - Mai Fushi's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 2.31 billion, 2.97 billion, and 3.82 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 29%, and 29% respectively [13] - The company has a strong execution capability, with an average revenue per employee of 997,000 RMB in 2024, indicating effective operational management [13] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report discusses the ongoing trend of "residential deposit migration," which is expected to accelerate as the equity market's fundamentals improve, with A-shares currently positioned favorably [12] - The report highlights that the equity market is likely to become the next destination for residential asset allocation, as the previous "stock-property seesaw" effect is no longer a constraint [15] - The report notes that by Q4 2025, the real risk-free interest rate for residents is expected to decline significantly, which will further drive the migration of deposits into the equity market [15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for Mai Fushi is characterized by a focus on mid-to-large enterprises, which enhances customer retention and bargaining power [13] - The report emphasizes the differentiation of Mai Fushi's products compared to competitors like Weimeng and Youzan, particularly in terms of comprehensive service offerings and a full-link marketing approach [13] - The report indicates that the AI commercialization acceleration is a key catalyst for growth, with a notable increase in KA customer numbers and order sizes [13] Group 4: Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.46% over the past month [1] - The report identifies sectors such as black home appliances and animal health as having strong recent performance, with respective increases of 12.36% and 47.87% over the past month [4] - Conversely, sectors like medical services and aviation equipment have underperformed, with declines of 10.77% and 21.91% over the same period [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huan Tai New Materials (林泰新材) is rated as a buy due to its strong growth prospects in the wet paper-based friction plate market and breakthroughs in the new energy vehicle DHT sector [2] - The report highlights a projected year-on-year revenue increase of 66% for wet paper-based friction plates by the first half of 2025, driven by the trend of self-control [2] - The demand growth in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle sectors, along with the expansion into applications like flying cars, demonstrates the company's forward-looking development strategy [2]