证券研究报告·公司点评报告·家电零部件Ⅱ 德业股份（605117） 2025 中报点评：2025Q2 储能出货环比高增， 工商储占比稳步提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 7,480 | 11,206 | 13,310 | 16,003 | 19,106 | | 同比（%） | 25.59 | 49.82 | 18.77 | 20.23 | 19.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,791 | 2,960 | 3,602 | 4,311 | 5,168 | | 同比（%） | 18.03 | 65.29 | 21.66 | 19.69 | 19.88 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.98 | 3.27 | 3.98 | 4.77 | 5.71 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 31.27 | 18.92 | 15.55 | 12.99 | 10.84 | [Table_T ...

Industry Overview - Thermal equipment utilizes thermal processing technology to heat, maintain, and cool materials in a specific medium, altering their structure to achieve desired properties [1][5] - The industry has expanded from metal materials to non-metal materials, driven by the rapid development of sectors like new energy vehicles, aerospace, and rail transportation [1][7] - The market size for major thermal equipment products in China is projected to grow from CNY 119.33 billion in 2020 to CNY 127.51 billion in 2024, with expectations to exceed CNY 130 billion by 2025 [1][7] Market Participants - Key listed companies in the thermal equipment sector include Chuangjiang New Material, Lijun Thermal Energy, Dingli Technology, and Beifang Huachuang [2] - The industry consists of approximately 1,000 manufacturers, with over 100 large-scale enterprises generating annual revenues exceeding CNY 20 million [11][13] - High-end thermal equipment is primarily dominated by foreign and joint-venture companies, with only a few domestic firms like Beifang Huachuang and Jingsheng Technology capable of high-end R&D and production [13][14] Current Industry Status - The thermal equipment industry in China began in the 1950s and has made significant progress through technology introduction and independent research [5][6] - Despite advancements, there remains a considerable gap in equipment manufacturing levels compared to developed countries, particularly in high-end technology [5][6] - Domestic companies have begun to overcome foreign technology blockades, achieving over 50% localization in certain high-end thermal equipment [6][7] Development Trends - The industry is accelerating towards smart and digital integration, with AI algorithms and IoT technologies enhancing automation and energy efficiency [18] - Green manufacturing practices are becoming central to industry upgrades, focusing on reducing carbon emissions and improving energy utilization [19] - There is a growing demand for high-end and customized thermal equipment, driven by advancements in new materials and aerospace sectors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains the credit rating of Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co., Ltd. at AA with a stable outlook, reflecting the company's strong position in the heat exchanger sector and good operational performance, despite facing challenges such as rising raw material costs and high financial leverage [3][10][27]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co., Ltd. is recognized for its leading position in the heat exchanger industry, with a diversified product matrix and strong order acquisition capabilities [3][10]. - The company has shown consistent growth in production and sales volume, with significant revenue increases driven by the demand for new energy vehicles [10][11]. Financial Performance - The total assets of the company are projected to grow from 135.24 billion in 2022 to 192.06 billion by 2025 [3][22]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 4.49 billion in 2022 to 8.94 billion in 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3][22]. - The operating revenue is forecasted to increase from 84.80 billion in 2022 to 127.02 billion in 2024, reflecting strong market demand [3][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its international presence and enhancing its technological capabilities, aiming to become a leading player in the thermal management sector [10][12]. - The strategic focus includes accelerating international development, achieving technological leadership, and improving overall competitiveness [10][12]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces challenges such as low shareholding by actual controllers, rising raw material prices, and high financial leverage, which may impact cost management [3][10]. - The financial structure requires improvement, particularly in the debt maturity profile, as the company has a high level of short-term debt [20][21]. Industry Outlook - The automotive market in China is expected to grow further in 2024, driven by policies promoting consumption and the rapid development of new energy vehicles [7][8]. - The demand for thermal management products is anticipated to rise, benefiting domestic companies like Yinlun as they enhance their competitive positions in international markets [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Three listed companies, Keda Li (科达利), Yinlun (银轮股份), and Weichuang Electric (伟创电气), are collaborating to establish a joint venture named Suzhou Yizhi Lingqiao Drive Technology Co., Ltd. (依智灵巧), focusing on the research and production of core components for humanoid robots [2][4]. Group 1: Joint Venture Details - The registered capital of Yizhi Lingqiao is 50 million yuan, with Weichuang Electric contributing 20 million yuan (40%), Keda Li 15 million yuan (30%), and Yinlun 10 million yuan (20%) [1]. - The joint venture aims to leverage the strengths of each partner in the field of embodied intelligent robots, enhancing technological research and manufacturing capabilities [4]. Group 2: Company Profiles - Weichuang Electric specializes in electrical transmission and industrial control, with significant experience in key components for robots, providing complete actuator solutions [3]. - Yinlun focuses on heat exchangers and automotive air conditioning products, and is expanding into the humanoid robot sector, developing key components like joint assemblies [3]. - Keda Li is involved in the production and sales of hardware products, aluminum caps, plastic products, and die-casting products, and is entering the humanoid robot market [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The partners expect a broad market potential for the dexterous hands being developed, as the industry is at a critical stage of development [4]. - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing a surge of new entrants, particularly from automotive component manufacturers [4]. - Keda Li plans to focus on high-precision reducers and joint modules as part of its humanoid robot business strategy [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yinlun Co., Ltd. plans to establish a joint venture named Suzhou Yizhi Intelligent Drive Technology Co., Ltd. with several partners, focusing on the research and manufacturing of core components for intelligent robots [2] - The registered capital of the joint venture is set at 50 million RMB, with Yinlun investing 10 million RMB, holding a 20% stake [2] - The establishment of the joint venture is subject to administrative approval processes, indicating potential technical research and market risks [2] Group 2 - Yinlun Co., Ltd. was founded on March 10, 1999, with a registered capital of approximately 7.92 billion RMB, and is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of heat exchangers and related products [2] - The company has 67 affiliated companies, including YINLUN HOLDINGS LIMITED and Zhejiang Yinlun New Energy Heat Management System Co., Ltd. [3] - The company's projected revenue for 2022 to 2024 is 8.48 billion RMB, 11.02 billion RMB, and 12.70 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.48%, 29.93%, and 15.28% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is expected to be 383 million RMB, 612 million RMB, and 784 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 73.92%, 59.71%, and 28.00% respectively [3] - The company's asset-liability ratios for 2022 to 2024 are 61.31%, 62.30%, and 61.49% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by growth in various business segments and strategic market expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 11.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.960 billion yuan, up 65.29% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 3.190 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 176.51%, while net profit was 721 million yuan, up 223.61% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.566 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.24%, with net profit of 706 million yuan, up 62.98% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Growth - The company experienced significant growth in its business segments, with revenue from heat exchangers at 1.955 billion yuan (up 45.39%), dehumidifiers at 969 million yuan (up 37.69%), inverters at 5.556 billion yuan (up 25.44%), and energy storage battery packs at 2.451 billion yuan (up 177.19%) [2]. - The company's photovoltaic products generated over half of their revenue from emerging markets in Asia, South America, and Africa [2]. Market Strategy - The company is enhancing its market competitiveness by optimizing product structure and controlling costs, while also expanding its domestic and international sales networks [2]. - A focus on currency management and improving capital operation efficiency has strengthened the company's global operational capabilities [2]. Shareholder Confidence - The chairman proposed a share buyback plan of 100 million to 200 million yuan, funded by self-owned funds or bank loans, to be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 4.002 billion yuan, 5.049 billion yuan, and 6.140 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [3]. - A target price of 111.51 yuan is set based on an 18x PE for 2025, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ampco Pittsburgh Corporation reported earnings per common share of $0.06 for Q1 2025, an improvement of $0.20 compared to the prior year quarter [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $8,800,000, up from $5,100,000 in Q1 2024, indicating significant EBITDA improvements across both segments [4] - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2025 were $104,300,000, a decline of approximately 5% compared to Q1 2024, but a 3% increase sequentially versus Q4 2024 [24] - Net income attributable to Ampco Pittsburgh for Q1 2025 was $1,100,000, compared to a net loss of $2,700,000 in the prior year, reflecting a $0.20 per share EPS improvement [27] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment reported net sales of $72,300,000 for Q1 2025, down from $77,720,000 in Q1 2024, but segment EBITDA improved to $8,270,000 from $6,000,000 [8] - The Air and Liquid Systems segment had record order intake driven by the nuclear market, with adjusted EBITDA increasing to $3,800,000 from $2,200,000 in the prior year [15][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global steel demand remains soft but stable in North America and Europe, with U.S. tariffs on rules currently limited to a baseline of 10% [9][10] - The company expects to benefit from the tariffs as they create a significant tailwind for the domestic FEP business, with projected sales and margins rising from $11,800,000 in 2024 [12][13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing profitability through pricing, operational efficiency, and disciplined management of external risks, including tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [13] - There is a strong emphasis on the nuclear market, with expectations for record levels of orders and shipments, particularly for heat exchangers [16][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates some near-term impacts in Q2 due to market reactions to recent tariffs but intends to protect margins by passing costs to customers [5] - The company remains optimistic about the future, particularly in the nuclear sector, and expects continued strong demand from the U.S. Navy for pumps [18][21] Other Important Information - The total backlog as of March 31, 2025, was $368,500,000, an increase of 6% compared to the previous year [27] - The company made a pension contribution of $800,000 during the quarter, with capital expenditures of $2,200,000 [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: No questions were registered during the Q&A session - The operator noted that there were no questions from participants, and the session concluded without any inquiries [29][30]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ampco Pittsburgh Corporation reported earnings per common share of $0.06 for Q1 2025, an improvement of $0.20 compared to the prior year quarter [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $8,800,000, up from $5,100,000 in Q1 2024, indicating significant EBITDA improvements across both segments [4] - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2025 were $104,300,000, a decline of approximately 5% compared to Q1 2024, but a 3% increase sequentially versus Q4 2024 [24] - Net income attributable to Ampco Pittsburgh for Q1 2025 was $1,100,000, compared to a net loss of $2,700,000 in the prior year [26] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Forged and Cast Engineered Products segment reported net sales of $72,300,000 for Q1 2025, down from $77,720,000 in Q1 2024, but segment EBITDA improved to $8,270,000 from $6,000,000 [7][8] - The Air and Liquid Systems segment had record order intake driven by the nuclear market, with adjusted EBITDA increasing to $3,800,000 from $2,200,000 in the prior year [15][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global steel demand remains soft but stable in North America and Europe, with U.S. tariffs on rolls currently at 10% [9] - The company expects to benefit from the reduction of tariffs on imports from the U.S. to China, which will relieve pressure on shipments [10] - The total backlog as of March 31, 2025, was $368,500,000, a 6% increase compared to the previous year [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to protect margins by passing through negative effects of tariffs to customers [5] - There is a focus on enhancing profitability through pricing, operational efficiency, and disciplined management of external risks, including tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - The company is positioned to benefit from growth opportunities in the distribution of bar and block products as imports face new costs [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects some near-term impacts in Q2 due to market and supply chain reactions to recent tariffs but remains optimistic about margin protection [5] - The nuclear market is seen as a preferred power option, with expectations for record levels of orders and shipments in the coming year [17] - Management acknowledges potential short-term supply chain issues due to tariffs but believes they could lead to increased demand for products in the long term [21] Other Important Information - The company implemented a change in non-GAAP measures reporting, now focusing on adjusted EBITDA instead of consolidated adjusted operating income [23] - Total selling and administrative expenses increased by 5% year-over-year due to inflationary pressures [25] - The company made a pension contribution of $800,000 during the quarter [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: No questions were registered during the Q&A session - The session concluded without any questions being asked [30][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.21 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.8%, with a net profit of 2.96 billion yuan, up 65.3% year-on-year [4][11] - The inverter business saw a revenue of 5.56 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 25.4% year-on-year, while the energy storage battery pack business experienced a significant growth of 177.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.45 billion yuan [5][6] - The company is expanding its product offerings in emerging markets, addressing the urgent demand for energy solutions [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.80 billion yuan, 19.00 billion yuan, and 24.65 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 3.68 billion yuan, 4.65 billion yuan, and 6.24 billion yuan [7][11] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 12, and 9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][11] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 37.2% and 27.5%, showing improvements in profitability despite some increases in sales and management expenses [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][9] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.21 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.8%, with a net profit of 2.96 billion yuan, up 65.3% year-on-year [4][11] - The inverter business saw a revenue of 5.56 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 25.4% year-on-year, while the energy storage battery pack business experienced a significant growth of 177.2% year-on-year, reaching 2.45 billion yuan [5][6] - The company is expanding its product offerings in emerging markets, particularly in energy storage solutions, which are expected to drive future growth [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14.80 billion yuan, 19.90 billion yuan, and 24.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.68 billion yuan, 4.65 billion yuan, and 6.24 billion yuan [7][11] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15, 12, and 9 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][11] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were reported at 37.2% and 27.5%, showing improvements in profitability [4]