公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ：内容编译自彭博社 。 日本各地价格都在上涨，但芯片制造设备零部件的价格却没有上涨。东京电子株式会社的供应商丸前 株式会社正在寻求交易以改变这一现状。 丸前株式会社社长前田俊和表示，许多日本芯片工具真空部件制造商尚未从人工智能热潮中获益，尽 管人工智能热潮正刺激着人们在英伟达芯片和其他硬件上投入数十亿美元。这是因为这些制造商正在 与日本数十家专门在大型机器内制造密封空间的公司竞争——这是一个利基市场，但却至关重要的领 域，其国内销售额不到1000亿日元（6.8亿美元）。 前田表示，日本的芯片工具零部件行业早就应该整合了。今年3月，他牵头以90亿日元的价格从私募 股权基金日本工业伙伴公司手中收购了同行KM铝业公司。他在接受采访时表示，除了这笔交易之 外，其他谈判已经枯竭，尽管该行业迫切需要扩大规模。 "没人愿意出售，"他表示，并补充说，日本分散的市场存在一些结构性障碍，阻碍了整合。"但并购 是增长的工具之一，当机会和协同效应出现时，我们会做好准备。" 潜在目标包括芯片制造最终阶段所需组件的工具制造商，以及在树脂等领域拥有专业技术的公司。丸 前株式会社也在关注 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The controlled nuclear fusion, known as "artificial sun," is considered a key to achieving infinite, clean, and safe energy, and has become a strategic direction for many countries since the 20th century [3] - The nuclear fusion industry is experiencing rapid commercialization and industrialization, with significant interest in both primary and secondary markets [4] - The global market for nuclear fusion is expected to reach a scale of trillions, with various regions in China, including Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Sichuan, targeting nuclear fusion as a future industry [7][8] Group 2: Company Developments - Several A-share companies, including Yingjie Electric, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhong Intelligent, and Jingye Intelligent, are accelerating their layouts in the nuclear fusion field, with recent disclosures of progress [10] - Yingjie Electric provides comprehensive key power supply services for nuclear fusion projects, successfully applied in multiple national-level projects [10] - Lianchuang Optoelectronics is advancing its "3+N" product layout in high-temperature superconducting equipment, aiming for increased product and technology contract amounts [10] - Hezhong Intelligent focuses on the R&D and manufacturing of complex components for fusion reactors, participating in the preliminary research of core components [10] - Shanghai Electric Group has become one of the most comprehensive equipment manufacturers in the nuclear fusion field, achieving 36 breakthroughs in key manufacturing technologies over 20 years [9] Group 3: Recent Milestones - Hanhai Fusion announced the completion of its HHMAX-901 main unit construction, marking a transition from laboratory to application for controlled nuclear fusion technology in China [2] - The BEST project in Hefei has advanced its total assembly work two months ahead of schedule, achieving significant milestones in plasma current and ion temperature [5] - The International Fusion Association (FIA) indicates that most fusion companies expect to achieve the first power supply to the grid between 2031 and 2035 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the rapid advancements in nuclear fusion projects both domestically and internationally, highlighting significant investments and technological breakthroughs that could lead to commercial viability in the near future [2][6][21]. Group 1: Recent Developments in Domestic Fusion Projects - The "BEST" project has commenced assembly ahead of schedule, with the goal of completing construction by 2027 [4]. - Various tenders related to the "BEST" and "Xinghuo No. 1" projects have been launched, indicating a robust pipeline of activities and investments [4][6]. - The "Chinese Circulation No. 3" project achieved a significant milestone with a fusion triple product reaching 10^20, marking a critical advancement in plasma performance [4]. Group 2: Investment and Financing Trends - TAE Technologies, a leading U.S. fusion company, raised over $150 million in its latest funding round, bringing its total funding to $1.35 billion, with participation from major investors like Chevron and Google [6]. - Japan announced an additional investment of 10 billion yen (approximately $69 million) into its three major fusion research institutions, aiming for commercialization in the 2030s [6]. - The UK government plans to invest £2.5 billion over the next five years to advance its fusion energy initiatives, including the STEP project [6]. Group 3: Technological Innovations Driving Progress - Innovative magnetic field structures, such as spherical tokamaks, are expected to enhance confinement performance and increase fusion power output in smaller volumes [8]. - The application of high-temperature superconductors is anticipated to significantly improve fusion output power by allowing for higher current densities and stronger magnetic fields [12][14]. - The integration of AI and supercomputing technologies is facilitating real-time predictions and optimizations in plasma behavior, thereby accelerating research and development processes [16]. Group 4: Global Competition and Market Dynamics - The U.S. and China are the largest investors in nuclear fusion, with China's investment growth outpacing that of the U.S. in recent years [18][23]. - As of 2024, the U.S. has invested $5.63 billion in fusion, while China has invested $2.49 billion, indicating a competitive landscape [23]. - The article outlines the potential for fusion energy to meet global energy demands sustainably, with significant advantages over traditional energy sources [21][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Application Scenarios - The most optimistic projections suggest that the first fusion power plant could connect to the grid between 2025 and 2030, while a more conservative estimate places this timeline between 2031 and 2035 [48]. - The potential applications of nuclear fusion include electricity generation, industrial heating, and propulsion for spacecraft, with key developments expected around 2030 [53][55]. - The article highlights a "three-step" strategy for China's fusion energy application, progressing from experimental validation to commercial demonstration [42].

Summary of Fusion Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the nuclear fusion industry, particularly advancements in magnetic confinement fusion technology, specifically the stellarator and tokamak designs [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Significant Progress in Europe**: Germany's Fusion has completed a record €130 million financing, aiming to establish a 1GW fusion power plant by early 2030, indicating strong market support for the stellarator approach [1][3]. - **Comparison of Magnetic Confinement Devices**: The stellarator does not require plasma current drive, leading to more stable operation, although it has a more complex magnetic field structure and slightly inferior confinement performance compared to tokamaks [1][4][5]. - **Achievements of W7-X Stellarator**: The W7-X stellarator in Germany achieved a discharge duration of 43 seconds, with fusion triple product levels comparable to or slightly exceeding China's EAST, highlighting the feasibility of the stellarator technology [1][7][8]. - **Importance of Fusion Triple Product**: The fusion triple product, which considers temperature, plasma density, and energy confinement time, is crucial for assessing controllable nuclear fusion. Focusing on comprehensive indicators rather than single factors is essential [1][8]. - **Domestic Advancements in China**: The South China No. 3 device has reached and exceeded the optimal ignition temperature of 160 million degrees Celsius, suggesting accelerated future progress in domestic fusion research [1][9]. Catalysts for Future Growth - **Potential Catalysts in 2025**: The nuclear fusion sector may experience multiple catalysts for growth, including policy support, industrial developments (e.g., Shanghai Superconductor IPO, various project tenders), the EU's fusion strategy announcement, and the UK's £2.5 billion investment plan over five years [1][9]. Key Components and Companies to Watch - **Focus on Key Components**: Attention should be given to critical components such as the divertor (produced by Guoguang Electric, Antai Technology, and HEDON Intelligent), vacuum chambers (by HEDON Intelligent and Shanghai Electric), and low-temperature superconductors (developed by Western Superconducting) [2][10]. - **Emerging Companies**: Other notable companies include Yuyuan Co., Jinda Co., Shanghai Superconductor, Yongding Co., and Jin Da Co. Companies in power supply, such as Wangzi New Materials and Exabio, are also highlighted for their performance and development efforts [2][10]. Development Status of Stellarators and Tokamaks - **Domestic vs. International Development**: While China primarily focuses on tokamaks, significant progress has been made in stellarators. Internationally, both designs are advancing rapidly, necessitating increased attention and investment in stellarator technology domestically [1][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading enterprise in the high-end forming machine tool and intelligent sorting equipment industry, with a focus on the nuclear fusion sector, which is expected to drive its growth trajectory in the coming years [1][3]. Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry Developments - The company has accelerated its involvement in nuclear fusion projects, winning contracts for key components such as vacuum chambers and gravity supports, indicating a strong order pipeline [1][2]. - The domestic nuclear fusion industry is projected to grow rapidly, with significant projects like CFEDR and various hybrid reactors expected to commence in the near future, positioning the company to benefit from this growth [2][3]. - Global nuclear fusion initiatives, including the ITER project and private sector efforts in the U.S. and Japan, highlight the increasing international focus on fusion energy, which may create additional opportunities for the company [2][3]. Group 2: Core Business Performance - The company is recognized as a champion in the forming machine tool sector, with products utilized across various industries including automotive, aerospace, and defense, showing a robust recovery in its core business [3][4]. - The hydraulic press segment has seen significant advancements, particularly in applications related to new energy vehicles, contributing to an increase in market share [3][4]. - The mechanical press segment is experiencing growth due to rising demand from the new energy vehicle sector and domestic brands, with a notable increase in orders for high-end automated pressure machines [4]. Group 3: Intelligent Sorting Equipment - The company is a pioneer in the optical sorting equipment market, with a strong focus on applications in food safety and recycling, leading to a substantial increase in revenue from this segment [4]. - The revenue from the color sorting machine business is projected to grow significantly, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26.2% from 2021 to 2024 [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 24.8 billion, 28.4 billion, and 33.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.37 billion, 1.34 billion, and 2.58 billion [5]. - The current valuation reflects the early-stage development of the nuclear fusion industry, suggesting substantial future growth potential [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the controlled nuclear fusion industry. Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is considered a strategic energy source that is safe, clean, low-carbon, and has high energy density, potentially solving humanity's energy problems [12][18]. - The energy balance is a critical indicator for the commercial viability of controlled nuclear fusion, with future energy gain indicators expected to exceed 10 [22]. - The global timeline for achieving operational demonstration reactors is set for 2050, with significant advancements expected in the coming years [54][56]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Energy Solutions - Controlled nuclear fusion is a promising solution to energy needs, utilizing abundant fuel sources like deuterium from seawater, which could support humanity's energy demands for thousands of years [18][20]. - The energy gain (Q value) is a key metric, with a threshold of Q=1 indicating feasibility for scientific and engineering applications [22][23]. Section 2: Technological Progress - The report highlights the transition from copper-based magnets to high-temperature superconductors in fusion devices, which enhances efficiency and reduces costs [52][73]. - Major global projects like ITER are pivotal in advancing fusion technology, with significant international collaboration [59][62]. Section 3: Industry Structure - The current focus is on the midstream components of fusion devices and upstream materials, with a detailed breakdown of the value chain [98][100]. - Key materials include low-temperature superconductors, high-temperature superconductors, tungsten, and stainless steel, which are essential for the construction of fusion reactors [100][103]. Section 4: Market Opportunities - The report identifies upstream material suppliers and midstream equipment manufacturers as core beneficiaries of the fusion industry, with specific companies highlighted for their roles [114][117]. - The downstream segment includes research institutions and private fusion companies, indicating a growing market for fusion technology applications [117].

Summary of Controlled Nuclear Fusion Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is experiencing significant milestones, with projects like ITER completing the construction of core pulse superconducting magnet systems and China's Circulation No. 3 renovation project starting, with total investments reaching several hundred million [1][2][3] - Major economies including the US, UK, Japan, and the EU are accelerating the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, aiming for energy structure transformation and environmental protection [1][6] Key Developments - The EAST project in Hefei has started two months ahead of schedule and demonstrated power generation capabilities, marking a major breakthrough in making controlled nuclear fusion a reality [2] - The industry is transitioning from scientific validation to engineering validation, with various construction and design tenders being launched [3][18] - Significant contributions from China include advancements in superconducting tokamak technology by institutions like the Southwest Institute of Physics and the Chinese Academy of Sciences [5] Future Projections - Commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to begin after 2035 or 2040, with experimental pile construction and equipment tenders occurring beforehand [1][9] - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the industry, with projects like EAST and Spark entering construction and equipment phases, potentially attracting hundreds of billions in investments [3][16] Market Dynamics - The market for controlled nuclear fusion is projected to expand significantly due to increased experimental pile construction and equipment tenders, alongside advancements in AI and high-temperature superconducting materials [13][10] - The total investment for a single tokamak device is approximately $1.2 billion, with the market for superconducting technology potentially reaching $14.8 billion if high-temperature superconducting technology is utilized [14][15] Key Players and Components - Key components in the controlled nuclear fusion industry include magnet systems, filters, blanket systems, vacuum chambers, and vacuum dewars, with magnet systems accounting for a significant portion of costs [17] - Companies with high participation in the controlled nuclear fusion sector include Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Yongding Co., Yinlong Co., Jinda Co., and Guoguang Electric, all of which are involved in critical product segments [19] Investment Opportunities - The industry is forming a resonance effect, accelerating the industrialization process, with increased capital market attention and strategic investments from companies like PetroChina and Shanghai Future Energy [7][8] - The focus on core components and equipment manufacturing in the controlled nuclear fusion supply chain presents significant investment opportunities [17][19]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...