Group 1 - The postponement of the "2+2" tariff negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. adds uncertainty to the already tense South Korea-U.S. relations, highlighting South Korea's difficult position in the complex international landscape [1] - South Korea is under pressure due to the U.S. imposing a tariff deadline of August 1, with the country eager to avoid a 25% comprehensive tariff, especially as Japan has already reached a tariff agreement with the U.S. [1] - South Korea has set two "red lines" in negotiations: not opening the rice and beef markets, as its grain self-sufficiency rate is low, with only 19.5% from 2021 to 2023, and zero self-sufficiency in wheat and corn [1] Group 2 - In 2024, South Korea imported $2.22 billion worth of U.S. beef, making it a major importer, but the U.S. is pushing to lift the ban on U.S. beef imports over 30 months, facing strong opposition from the South Korean agricultural sector [3] - South Korea's recent diplomatic interactions with the U.S. have seen multiple cancellations of meetings, indicating U.S. dissatisfaction with South Korea's proposals and an attempt to assert dominance in the bilateral relationship [3] Group 3 - On July 25, South Korea's Ministry of Trade announced a request for anti-dumping duties of 28.16% to 33.57% on carbon steel and hot-rolled steel from China, which raises questions about its timing amid ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations [5] - This anti-dumping investigation was initiated earlier in the year, but its announcement during critical negotiations suggests a strategic move to appease the U.S. while deflecting responsibility from the current government [5] Group 4 - South Korea is navigating a complex geopolitical environment, heavily reliant on U.S. military protection while also depending on China as its largest trading partner, with trade volumes exceeding $300 billion in 2024 [6] - The current administration appears to be leaning towards the U.S., as evidenced by recent actions such as rejecting China's invitation to a military parade and imposing tariffs on Chinese steel, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture [8] Group 5 - Over-reliance on the U.S. could jeopardize South Korea's relationship with China, which is crucial for its economic development, as many industries depend on Chinese raw materials [8] - The imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel may lead to increased costs for South Korean industries, potentially escalating trade tensions and undermining established economic cooperation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican stock index has experienced fluctuations, currently down 0.07% and nearing its daily low, while the Mexican peso has depreciated by 0.2%, approaching 18.78 pesos against the dollar after initially rising to 18.6509 pesos following the release of U.S. CPI data [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso's decline is significant, with a drop of 0.2% leading to a new daily low of 18.78 pesos [1] - The peso had previously reached a high of 18.6509 pesos before the U.S. CPI data was released [1] - President AMLO expressed hopes to reach an agreement with the U.S. regarding tomatoes by August 1 [1] Group 2 - On July 14, the Trump administration announced anti-dumping tariffs on most tomatoes imported from Mexico [1]

Group 1 - The Mexican Composite Index declined by 0.41%, and the Mexican Peso depreciated by 0.55% against the US Dollar, trading at 18.7388 Pesos [1] - The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF listed in the US fell by 0.44% in after-hours trading [2] - The US Department of Commerce announced its withdrawal from a 2019 agreement related to the trade of fresh tomatoes with Mexico [2] Group 2 - The agreement in question pertains to the trade of fresh tomatoes [3] - The Trump administration has issued a new anti-dumping duty order targeting imported tomatoes from Mexico, imposing a 17% tariff on most imports [3]

Group 1 - Wang Yi's visit to Europe aimed to ease economic and trade relations, but the negotiations have not progressed as expected due to strong demands from the EU [3] - The EU's request for China to stop supporting Russia, lift rare earth export restrictions, and propose a plan to reshape trade relations indicates a tough stance [3] - The imposition of a maximum anti-dumping duty of 34.9% on brandy exports to the EU for five years reflects China's strong response to EU trade barriers [1][4] Group 2 - The division among EU member states regarding their approach to China complicates the EU's policy consensus, with some advocating for deeper economic ties while others push for a tougher stance [4] - Despite the anti-dumping measures, China has left room for exemptions for major brandy producers, indicating a willingness to negotiate [6] - The EU's economic strategy is inconsistent, as it seeks to reduce dependence on China while also recognizing China as a crucial economic partner, projected to become the EU's largest import source by 2024 [6] Group 3 - The EU faces challenges in tariff negotiations with the US, which could further impact its economy if no consensus is reached [8] - Improving relations with China could be a strategic choice for the EU to counter US tariff pressures, especially if unreasonable accusations against China are halted [8] - Wang Yi emphasized that cooperation, rather than confrontation, is essential for mutual benefit in the context of global economic and trade trends [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japan has officially imposed a 95.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese graphite electrodes for a period of five years, following a temporary measure that began in March 2023, based on the results of an additional investigation [1]. Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance decided on June 20 to levy anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite electrodes, which are primarily used as electrodes in electric furnaces to melt iron scrap [1]. - The decision to implement the anti-dumping duty was approved during a meeting of the Tariff and Foreign Exchange Review Committee held on June 20 [1]. - The measure was initiated in response to complaints from domestic manufacturers regarding dumping practices by Chinese companies [1].

Core Viewpoint - Japan has approved a 95.2% anti-dumping tariff on imported graphite electrodes from China for a period of four months, indicating concerns over low-priced imports causing substantial harm to the domestic industry [1] Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The Japanese Ministry of Finance's advisory council approved the tariff on March 12, 2023, based on findings that low-priced imports are equivalent to dumping and have caused significant damage to the domestic industry [1] - The current tariff rates on Chinese graphite electrodes in Japan are 2.1% or 3.3%, which will be significantly increased with the new tariff [1] Group 2: Investigation and Future Actions - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry will complete their investigation by late October 2023 to reassess the necessity of continuing the tariff [1] - The mid-term report from the investigation concluded that there is sufficient evidence to support the imposition of the new tariff [1]