1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE rapeseed futures rose on March 11 due to the rebound of crude oil prices after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. It is currently the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. However, the adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with market expectations, with limited overall impact. The rapeseed meal continued to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the rise in the international soybean market boosts rapeseed oil. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict leads to a sharp rise in international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The rise in the peripheral oil market supports the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9769 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 731.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 6199 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 102 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 22 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 244,974 lots, down 8696 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 606,359 lots, down 45,781 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was - 14,396 lots, down 2196 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 98,903 lots, up 8939 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 1125 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 2311 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed was 5445.59 yuan/ton, up 50.16 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.92, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 168 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9780 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, up 0.85 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 25.55 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 8.05 million tons, down 1.24 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 28.3 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 28.27%, up 5.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 28.28%, up 5.63 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.98%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.78%, up 2.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 1.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.21%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.16%, up 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 11, ICE rapeseed futures rose as crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of Energy said that the country is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel to prevent the impact of the Middle East conflict on crude oil supply [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed significantly higher. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9,666 yuan/ton, up 481 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's Statistics Bureau survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The US Department of Agriculture's Outlook Forum predicts that the demand for soybean oil for biofuel production in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.8 billion pounds, a year-on-year increase of 26%, and will further increase by 17% to 17.3 billion pounds in the 2026/27 season. The intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the sharp rise in international oil prices have also boosted the oil market. Domestically, the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the tariff will be about 15% (5.9% + 9%) for the next five years starting from March 1st, which is expected to significantly increase the import volume of Canadian rapeseed and add supply pressure in the far - term. However, the market has already anticipated this, and the impact on the market is limited. Recently, the rapeseed oil futures price has been oscillating strongly [7]. - **For Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal futures closed with an oscillating increase. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2,374 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week. There is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and as the Brazilian harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. The market is still uncertain about the future demand for US soybeans. However, affected by the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil, and the strong US soybean crushing supports the US soybean market. For rapeseed meal itself, China has cancelled the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the tariff on Canadian rapeseed has also significantly decreased. Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal will flow back to the domestic market, increasing the supply pressure in the far - term. Currently, it is still the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. The adjustment of anti - discrimination measures on Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed basically meet the previous expectations, and the market has already reacted in advance, so the overall impact is limited. This week, rapeseed meal closed with an oscillating increase, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 05 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,666 yuan/ton, up 481 yuan/ton from last week. The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1%, and the demand for US soybean oil for biofuel production is expected to grow. The Middle East conflict and rising oil prices boost the oil market. The anti - dumping tariff on Canadian rapeseed is about 15%, increasing far - term supply pressure, but the market impact is limited. The rapeseed oil futures price is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 05 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,374 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week. South American soybean supply pressure is increasing, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. The US soybean biofuel policy boosts the soybean market. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the decrease in rapeseed tariffs increase far - term supply pressure. It is the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the market has already anticipated the policy changes, with limited impact. Rapeseed meal closed with an oscillating increase, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Position and Price**: This week, rapeseed oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 292,389 lots, an increase of 34,445 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures oscillated and closed lower, with a total position of 854,490 lots, a decrease of 54,252 lots from last week [12]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures was - 5,937, compared with - 21,539 last week, and the net short position decreased. The top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures was - 172,981, compared with - 237,316 last week, and the net short position decreased [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 725 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 1,411 lots [24][25]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,290 yuan/ton, up from last week. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 624 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,560 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was + 186 yuan/ton [31][37]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was + 105 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 35 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 4.072, and the average spot price ratio was 3.97 [46]. - **Price Spreads between Different Oils and Meals**: The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,254 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly widened this week. The 05 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 448 yuan/ton, with little change this week. The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 541 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 530 yuan/ton [56][62]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Rapeseed - Supply**: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 201,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in February, March, and April 2026 were 120,000 tons, 165,000 tons, and 228,000 tons respectively. As of March 5th, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 422 yuan/ton. As of the 9th week of 2026, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 10,500 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate this week was 2.55%. In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% [66][70][74]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Supply**: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil inventory was 294,200 tons, an increase of 42,200 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 16.79%. In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% [82]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Demand**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,400 tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 573.8 billion yuan. As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 59,800 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.09% [86][90]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Supply**: As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal inventory was 6,500 tons, an increase of 500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.33%. In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% [94][98]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Demand**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [102]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of March 6th, this week, the rapeseed meal futures price oscillated and closed higher. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 22.24%, a rebound of 3.13% from last week's 19.11%, and it was at a relatively high level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [105].

Core Viewpoint - Japan is considering whether to extend anti-dumping duties on potassium hydroxide imports from China and South Korea, which are set to expire in August 2026, following an investigation by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and the Ministry of Finance [2][4]. Group 1 - Potassium hydroxide is used not only as an electrolyte in alkaline batteries but also as a raw material in liquid soap and detergents [4]. - The anti-dumping duties were initially imposed in 2016 due to allegations that producers in China and South Korea were exporting at unfairly low prices [4]. - The Japan Potash Electrolytic Industry Association has requested the Finance Minister to extend these duties [4].

Core Points - China has announced lower duties on pork imports and pig by-products from the EU after concluding a year-long anti-dumping investigation [1][2] - The new tariff rates will range from 4.9% to 19.8% and will be effective for five years, starting from Wednesday [2] - Previously, China had imposed temporary anti-dumping tariffs of up to 62.4% on EU pork imports [2] - The EU is the largest pork exporter globally, with China being its single largest buyer, accounting for approximately 13% of the EU's annual pork production exports [3] Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - China has reduced tariffs on European pork imports, with new rates set between 4.9% and 19.8% [2] - These tariffs will be in effect for a duration of five years [2] Background Context - The reduction follows a year-long anti-dumping investigation into European pork imports [1] - Prior to this, China had implemented temporary tariffs as high as 62.4% on EU pork imports [2] Trade Relations - The trade tensions between China and the EU escalated after the EU imposed tariffs of up to 45% on electric vehicles from China [3] - The EU exports about 13% of its annual pork production, with China being the largest market for these exports [3]

Core Points - The Italian Minister of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty, and Forestry, Lollobrigida, criticized the U.S. anti-dumping tariffs on Italian pasta as a form of "super protectionism" that is unnecessary and unjustified [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has determined that Italian pasta is being dumped, planning to impose an additional tariff of 91.74% on top of the existing 15% tariff starting in 2026, resulting in a total tariff of approximately 107% [2] - Italy produces over 4 million tons of pasta annually, with 60% of its production exported, making the U.S. a significant overseas market for the Italian pasta industry [2]

Group 1 - The postponement of the "2+2" tariff negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. adds uncertainty to the already tense South Korea-U.S. relations, highlighting South Korea's difficult position in the complex international landscape [1] - South Korea is under pressure due to the U.S. imposing a tariff deadline of August 1, with the country eager to avoid a 25% comprehensive tariff, especially as Japan has already reached a tariff agreement with the U.S. [1] - South Korea has set two "red lines" in negotiations: not opening the rice and beef markets, as its grain self-sufficiency rate is low, with only 19.5% from 2021 to 2023, and zero self-sufficiency in wheat and corn [1] Group 2 - In 2024, South Korea imported $2.22 billion worth of U.S. beef, making it a major importer, but the U.S. is pushing to lift the ban on U.S. beef imports over 30 months, facing strong opposition from the South Korean agricultural sector [3] - South Korea's recent diplomatic interactions with the U.S. have seen multiple cancellations of meetings, indicating U.S. dissatisfaction with South Korea's proposals and an attempt to assert dominance in the bilateral relationship [3] Group 3 - On July 25, South Korea's Ministry of Trade announced a request for anti-dumping duties of 28.16% to 33.57% on carbon steel and hot-rolled steel from China, which raises questions about its timing amid ongoing U.S. tariff negotiations [5] - This anti-dumping investigation was initiated earlier in the year, but its announcement during critical negotiations suggests a strategic move to appease the U.S. while deflecting responsibility from the current government [5] Group 4 - South Korea is navigating a complex geopolitical environment, heavily reliant on U.S. military protection while also depending on China as its largest trading partner, with trade volumes exceeding $300 billion in 2024 [6] - The current administration appears to be leaning towards the U.S., as evidenced by recent actions such as rejecting China's invitation to a military parade and imposing tariffs on Chinese steel, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture [8] Group 5 - Over-reliance on the U.S. could jeopardize South Korea's relationship with China, which is crucial for its economic development, as many industries depend on Chinese raw materials [8] - The imposition of tariffs on Chinese steel may lead to increased costs for South Korean industries, potentially escalating trade tensions and undermining established economic cooperation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican stock index has experienced fluctuations, currently down 0.07% and nearing its daily low, while the Mexican peso has depreciated by 0.2%, approaching 18.78 pesos against the dollar after initially rising to 18.6509 pesos following the release of U.S. CPI data [1] Group 1 - The Mexican peso's decline is significant, with a drop of 0.2% leading to a new daily low of 18.78 pesos [1] - The peso had previously reached a high of 18.6509 pesos before the U.S. CPI data was released [1] - President AMLO expressed hopes to reach an agreement with the U.S. regarding tomatoes by August 1 [1] Group 2 - On July 14, the Trump administration announced anti-dumping tariffs on most tomatoes imported from Mexico [1]

Group 1 - The Mexican Composite Index declined by 0.41%, and the Mexican Peso depreciated by 0.55% against the US Dollar, trading at 18.7388 Pesos [1] - The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF listed in the US fell by 0.44% in after-hours trading [2] - The US Department of Commerce announced its withdrawal from a 2019 agreement related to the trade of fresh tomatoes with Mexico [2] Group 2 - The agreement in question pertains to the trade of fresh tomatoes [3] - The Trump administration has issued a new anti-dumping duty order targeting imported tomatoes from Mexico, imposing a 17% tariff on most imports [3]

Group 1 - Wang Yi's visit to Europe aimed to ease economic and trade relations, but the negotiations have not progressed as expected due to strong demands from the EU [3] - The EU's request for China to stop supporting Russia, lift rare earth export restrictions, and propose a plan to reshape trade relations indicates a tough stance [3] - The imposition of a maximum anti-dumping duty of 34.9% on brandy exports to the EU for five years reflects China's strong response to EU trade barriers [1][4] Group 2 - The division among EU member states regarding their approach to China complicates the EU's policy consensus, with some advocating for deeper economic ties while others push for a tougher stance [4] - Despite the anti-dumping measures, China has left room for exemptions for major brandy producers, indicating a willingness to negotiate [6] - The EU's economic strategy is inconsistent, as it seeks to reduce dependence on China while also recognizing China as a crucial economic partner, projected to become the EU's largest import source by 2024 [6] Group 3 - The EU faces challenges in tariff negotiations with the US, which could further impact its economy if no consensus is reached [8] - Improving relations with China could be a strategic choice for the EU to counter US tariff pressures, especially if unreasonable accusations against China are halted [8] - Wang Yi emphasized that cooperation, rather than confrontation, is essential for mutual benefit in the context of global economic and trade trends [9]