Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province is experiencing significant regional coordination and development, with the gap in per capita GDP and disposable income between southern and northern Jiangsu narrowing, indicating a more balanced economic landscape [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Development - The per capita GDP ratio between southern and northern Jiangsu has decreased to 1.86, and the disposable income ratio has reduced to 1.80, making Jiangsu one of the provinces with the smallest regional disparities in the country [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen a shift from simple industrial transfer to deep innovation collaboration between southern and northern Jiangsu [2]. - The establishment of 15 innovation hubs in Jiangsu has facilitated the flow of innovative resources across geographical barriers, enhancing regional collaboration [3]. Group 2: Urban-Rural Integration - Jiangsu has made strides in breaking the urban-rural dual structure, promoting a model of integrated development where urban and rural areas thrive together [4][5]. - The province has built 283 "unmanned" farms and developed 500 themed creative agricultural parks, showcasing the integration of technology and agriculture [5]. - The rural road network has reached 140,000 kilometers, achieving full coverage of administrative villages with dual-lane four-level roads, enhancing connectivity [5]. Group 3: Cultural and Social Development - Cultural exchanges and activities have been promoted in rural areas, enriching the cultural landscape and enhancing community engagement [6]. - The disposable income of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu has seen a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, with the income gap between urban and rural residents gradually narrowing [6]. Group 4: Strategic Integration - Jiangsu has actively integrated its development into national strategies, contributing significantly to the Yangtze River Delta and the Yangtze River Economic Belt [7][8]. - The region's GDP accounted for 24.4% of the national total in 2023, with projections indicating an increase to 24.7% in 2024 [8]. - Jiangsu's foreign trade in 2024 reached 5.62 trillion yuan, marking a 7% year-on-year increase and representing 28.3% of the total foreign trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt [9]. Group 5: Collaborative Support - Jiangsu has allocated over 34 billion yuan for targeted support and collaboration projects, enhancing economic ties and promoting shared prosperity [11]. - The province has organized over 8,000 support projects and sent more than 1,600 cadres and talents to assist in development efforts [11].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Greentown China (03900), a leader in high-quality residential development, with a strong presence in key cities like Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing [2][11] - Greentown China has a mixed ownership structure, with major shareholders including China Communications Construction Company (28.94%) and Kowloon Warehouse (22.95%) [2][11] - The company has a competitive advantage due to its combination of state-owned enterprise credit and market-oriented mechanisms [2][11] Group 2: Land Acquisition and Inventory - Greentown China has been actively acquiring land since 2017, with an average land acquisition to sales ratio of 58% from 2017 to 2024, and a 55% ratio in the first half of 2025 [2][11] - The company focuses on land acquisition in key cities, with over half of its land value concentrated in ten core cities [2][11] - As of the end of 2024, the total land reserve area is 27.47 million square meters, with a total land reserve value of 449.6 billion yuan [2][11] Group 3: Sales and Product Strength - Greentown China's self-invested sales in the first half of 2025 reached 80.3 billion yuan, with a sales price of 35,000 yuan per square meter, ranking fifth in the industry [2][11] - The company has a strong product offering, with eight product series and a verified premium pricing ability, averaging a 15% premium [2][11] - The company’s construction system and property management services contribute to its competitive edge [2][11] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - The company has recognized impairment provisions totaling 11.4 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, with a 5.9% average for major real estate companies [2][11] - As of the end of 2024, the pre-receivable account is 147 billion yuan, covering 1.0 times the real estate settlement income for 2024 [2][11] - The target market capitalization for Greentown China is set at 33.3 billion HKD, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.85X [2][11] Group 5: Industry Insights on Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with domestic consumption expected to maintain high growth due to strong demand from the photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors [10][12] - China's organic silicon consumption accounts for approximately 60% of global demand, with a projected apparent consumption of 1.82 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21% [10][12] - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon is expected to peak at 3.44 million tons by the end of 2024, with a high industry concentration [10][14] Group 6: Cloud Computing and AI Sector - Major cloud service providers like Google and Microsoft have exceeded expectations, with Microsoft Azure's revenue growth accelerating to 39% in FY25Q4 [13][14] - The overall capital expenditure (Capex) for the cloud industry is projected to exceed 350 billion USD in FY25, reflecting strong demand for AI cloud services [13][14] - The report highlights the competitive advantages of these companies in the AI cloud sector, driven by increased computational capacity and strategic partnerships [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Greentown China [3][8]. Core Views - Greentown China is positioned as a leader in high-quality housing, leveraging a mixed-ownership structure that combines state-owned enterprise credibility with market-oriented mechanisms. The company has demonstrated strong product capabilities and a competitive edge in the housing market, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [7][8]. Company Overview - Greentown China Holdings Limited was established in 1995 in Hangzhou and has evolved into a national developer with a focus on high-end residential projects. The company has a diversified product portfolio, including luxury villas and urban landmarks, and has maintained a leading position in the industry through its commitment to quality [17][18]. - The major shareholders include China Communications Construction Company (29% stake) and Kowloon Warehouse Group (22.95% stake), with the founder holding 8.03% [19][23]. Land Acquisition & Inventory - The company has been actively acquiring land since 2017, with an average land acquisition to sales ratio of 58% from 2017 to 2024. In the first half of 2025, this ratio was 55%. The focus is on key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, with over half of the land value concentrated in ten core cities [7][39]. - As of the end of 2024, Greentown's total land bank was 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of 449.6 billion yuan, of which 53% is located in the core ten cities [7][39]. Sales & Product Strength - The company reported self-invested sales of 80.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a sales price of 35,000 yuan per square meter, leading the industry. Greentown's competitive advantage lies in its strong product development capabilities and market-validated premium pricing [7][8]. - The company has established eight product series tailored to market needs, demonstrating a verified ability to command price premiums averaging 15% [7][8]. Financials & Valuation - Greentown's financial performance is expected to improve, with projected net profits of 1.01 billion yuan in 2025, down 36.8% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027. The target market capitalization is set at 33.3 billion HKD, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.85 [6][8]. - The company has recognized impairment provisions totaling 11.4 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, indicating a relatively adequate level of impairment compared to industry averages [7][8].

Group 1 - A prime residential land parcel in Yiwu was successfully auctioned by Greentown with a total transaction price of 585.33 million yuan, reflecting a floor price of 16,145 yuan per square meter and a premium of 6.4% [1][2] - The land is strategically located near the Xiuhu Station of the Jin Yi East Urban Rail Transit and is less than 500 meters from Xiuhu Park, indicating its potential attractiveness for residential development [1] - This transaction is seen as a significant indicator of the land market trends in Yiwu for the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Greentown has been actively expanding its presence in Yiwu, having developed several notable projects over the past decade, including the Rose Garden project in 2013, which became a representative residential property in the area [3][4] - Recent projects like Fengqi Chaoming and Fengqi Yilou have further solidified Yiwu as a core strategic area for Greentown, showcasing the city's high market value and purchasing power [5] - The economic growth in Yiwu, with a GDP of 126.13 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, has contributed to a resilient real estate market, outperforming other cities of similar size [7] Group 3 - The newly auctioned land will support the development of modern residential products, including features like sky gardens and public shared platforms, enhancing the overall living experience [8] - As the current inventory in the central district is expected to be cleared by the end of the year, this new land parcel will fill the supply gap in the residential market [8]