Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market shows resilience with new home prices increasing by 0.82% month-on-month in September, leading the national average of 0.38% [1][2] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a mild adjustment, with prices decreasing by 0.48% month-on-month, but the decline is relatively moderate compared to other major cities [1][4] - The rental market is also adjusting slightly, with average rents down by 0.26% month-on-month, but still performing better than many other key cities [1][7] New Home Market - In September, the average price of new residential properties in Shanghai reached 60,690 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.82%, significantly higher than the national average of 0.09% [2] - The introduction of high-quality improvement projects has been a key driver for the structural increase in new home prices, attracting substantial demand [2][3] - Year-on-year, new home prices in Shanghai rose by 11.01%, far exceeding the national average of 2.68% and outperforming other first-tier cities [3] Second-Hand Housing Market - The average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai was 57,908 yuan per square meter in September, with a month-on-month decline of 0.48% and a year-on-year drop of 3.85% [4] - The adjustment in the second-hand market is characterized by a high volume of listings, with a prevailing "price for volume" trading logic [4] - Despite the decline, Shanghai's second-hand housing market shows strong resilience, with a smaller drop compared to the national average [4] Rental Market - The average rent in Shanghai was 83.13 yuan per square meter per month in September, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.26% [7] - The rental market is experiencing a slight adjustment due to seasonal factors, with a decrease in short-term rental demand following the end of the school season [8] - Demand for rental properties remains stable in key areas due to ongoing population inflow, particularly in industrial clusters [8]

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group's recent mid-year performance announcement for 2025 highlights the significant impact of government policies on the real estate market, indicating a recovery phase followed by new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The central government introduced a package of stimulus policies on September 26 last year to stabilize the real estate market, leading to a six-month recovery from October to March [2] - Starting in April, the market faced a new downturn as the stimulus policies were scaled back and the implementation of land reserve policies was slower than expected, putting pressure on the recovery observed in the second and third quarters [2] - The State Council's meeting in August emphasized the need to maintain the stability of the real estate market, with recent easing of purchase restrictions in cities like Beijing and Shanghai deemed necessary [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The chairman and CEO of Longfor Group, Chen Xuping, stated that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for China's economic and financial stability, with short-term trends dependent on the strength of policy stimuli [2] - In the long term, there is optimism regarding the resilience of the Chinese real estate market, particularly in first- and second-tier cities where there is a strong demand for quality housing in prime locations [2] - The company believes that focusing on building quality homes and providing excellent products and services remains a worthwhile long-term business strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company remains optimistic about the resilience of the Chinese real estate market in the medium to long term, particularly in core locations of first and second-tier cities where there is a strong demand for quality housing [1][6]. Debt Management - The company plans to reduce interest-bearing debt by over 30 billion yuan in 2025, with a net reduction of no more than 10 billion yuan annually thereafter, aiming to stabilize total interest-bearing debt around 100 billion yuan [2][4]. - The company has already repaid approximately 14.5 billion yuan in bond principal and interest this year, with all bonds maturing in 2025 fully repaid [2][3]. - The company anticipates repaying 60 billion yuan in debt in 2025, with subsequent repayments of 20 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, and a gradual decrease thereafter [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved its lowest financing costs and longest average loan terms in history as of June 30, 2025, with bank financing comprising 87% of interest-bearing debt and foreign currency debt reduced to 14% [3]. - Operating and service business revenue reached 13.27 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 22.6% of total revenue, marking a historical high [4][5]. Market Conditions - The company has observed a gradual increase in the proportion of operating business income over the past two years, although profits from real estate development have declined due to market adjustments [4][5]. - The real estate market has faced downward pressure since April 2023, with the effectiveness of stimulus policies being tested in the third quarter [6]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes financial safety and prioritizes debt security and project delivery over new investments, while still seeking quality land acquisitions in key cities [3][5]. - The company plans to focus on 50-60 key cities and maintain a strategy that ensures quality and sustainable growth by exiting low-margin projects [5].

Core Viewpoint - The chairman and CEO of Longfor Group, Chen Xuping, emphasized the necessity of relaxing purchase restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai, indicating a positive outlook for the resilience of the Chinese real estate market despite recent adjustments [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Longfor Group achieved a revenue of 58.75 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.22 billion yuan [1] - As of the end of the reporting period, the total comprehensive borrowing amounted to 169.8 billion yuan, with cash on hand of 44.67 billion yuan, resulting in a net debt ratio of 51.2% [1] - The average financing cost was reported at 3.58%, with an average loan term of 10.95 years [1] Market Outlook - The real estate market has seen a price decline of approximately 30% from its peak over the past four years, and the short-term stabilization of the market is expected to be influenced by policy stimuli [1] - The long-term outlook remains optimistic regarding the resilience of the Chinese real estate market [1]

Group 1 - The chairman and CEO of Longfor Group, Chen Xuping, stated that the recent relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai is necessary [1] - The real estate market has undergone four years of adjustment, with many cities experiencing a price drop of 30% from their peak [1] - The short-term stabilization of the real estate market relies on policy stimulus, while the long-term outlook remains optimistic about the resilience of the Chinese real estate market [1]

Group 1 - Chengdu's central urban area recently saw the sale of two residential land parcels, totaling approximately 1.9 billion yuan, with both parcels sold at a premium [1] - The highest premium was for the 49.6-acre land in Chenghua District, which was won by China Travel Investment at a floor price of 19,100 yuan per square meter, resulting in a total price of 1.579 billion yuan and a premium rate of 29.05% [1] - The second parcel, located in Wenjiang Tianfu Street, was acquired by Sichuan Yibin Shugang Real Estate Development at a floor price of 5,700 yuan per square meter, totaling 329.6 million yuan with a premium rate of 14.00% [1] Group 2 - According to the Chengdu branch of the China Index Academy, the real estate market in Chengdu is expected to show strong resilience in the first half of 2025, with a 23% year-on-year decrease in residential supply area but a 7.5% increase in transaction area, reaching 6.58 million square meters [2] - The "5+2" regions remain the main supply and demand areas, with a clearing cycle generally under 8 months for quality products supported by the "good housing" initiative [2] - As land availability in the "5+2" regions decreases and the process of improvement accelerates, some demand is shifting towards the new six districts with good transportation connections and mature facilities, influencing investment focus [2]

Group 1 - A prime residential land parcel in Yiwu was successfully auctioned by Greentown with a total transaction price of 585.33 million yuan, reflecting a floor price of 16,145 yuan per square meter and a premium of 6.4% [1][2] - The land is strategically located near the Xiuhu Station of the Jin Yi East Urban Rail Transit and is less than 500 meters from Xiuhu Park, indicating its potential attractiveness for residential development [1] - This transaction is seen as a significant indicator of the land market trends in Yiwu for the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Greentown has been actively expanding its presence in Yiwu, having developed several notable projects over the past decade, including the Rose Garden project in 2013, which became a representative residential property in the area [3][4] - Recent projects like Fengqi Chaoming and Fengqi Yilou have further solidified Yiwu as a core strategic area for Greentown, showcasing the city's high market value and purchasing power [5] - The economic growth in Yiwu, with a GDP of 126.13 billion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, has contributed to a resilient real estate market, outperforming other cities of similar size [7] Group 3 - The newly auctioned land will support the development of modern residential products, including features like sky gardens and public shared platforms, enhancing the overall living experience [8] - As the current inventory in the central district is expected to be cleared by the end of the year, this new land parcel will fill the supply gap in the residential market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month, while year-on-year declines narrowed [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0, with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index closed at 2174.1, with a weekly increase of 0.8% [6][10][11] Policy Developments - Nationally, the central government supports urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected. Locally, Jiangsu has announced measures to boost consumption, while Hunan and Zhejiang have introduced policies to support housing and property acquisition [6][13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities decreased to 14,000 units, down 33.1% from the previous week. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also fell to 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down 21,000 units from the previous week, and a sales-to-inventory ratio of 16.8 months, down 4.5 months [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies have made significant announcements, including major asset restructuring and share repurchase plans. Notable mentions include Chengjian Development and Haitai Development [6][28][29] Future Outlook - The report expects a year-on-year increase in second-hand home transaction volumes, while new home sales are projected to continue declining but at a reduced rate. The core areas with high efficiency and premium properties are expected to drive this trend [6][29]