Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract rising significantly by 5.55% to 5.55 yuan/ton [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises nationwide is 56.866 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.757 million heavy boxes or 3.00% month-on-month, but an increase of 28.96% year-on-year [2] - The industry operating rate for float glass is 72.05% as of January 1, 2023, down by 1.59 percentage points from December 25, with a capacity utilization rate of 75.73%, also down by 1.53% [2] Group 2 - The glass market remains weak, with no clear signs of strengthening in the short term due to ongoing supply-side pressures and seasonal demand weakness in the construction industry [3] - High overall inventory levels continue to constrain market performance, although some regions are experiencing inventory reduction due to sales or capacity cuts [3] - Short-term expectations for cold repairs and environmental policy changes may stabilize the glass market, but high inventory remains a significant limiting factor [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, iron ore prices rose on the first trading day and fell in night trading. The market may continue to trade on the winter storage expectation in the near - term, with prices remaining firm and showing an oscillating trend. After restocking ends, prices may回调. Market focus will shift to inventory accumulation expectations during the Spring Festival and the overseas mine shipping plans in 2026 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Iron ore prices rose on the first trading day after the holiday and fell in night trading [1] 3.2 Important Information - On January 5th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference where the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport stated that efforts will be made to implement the renewal and digital - intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure [1] - On January 5th, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on organizing a pilot project of "government procurement to support green and low - carbon development of highways" [1] - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce promoted green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new energy vehicles [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 32.137 million tons, a decrease of 4.634 million tons compared to the previous period. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 million tons, an increase of 0.969 million tons compared to the previous period [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the holiday, the average daily hot metal output was 2.2743 million tons, an increase of 0.0085 million tons compared to the previous week, increasing for the second consecutive week. The global iron ore shipping volume increased seasonally in December, reaching a record high. During the holiday, the iron ore shipping volume decreased seasonally, while the arrival volume increased. Ports continued to accumulate inventory, and port inventory was at a high level. Steel mills' iron ore inventory also increased, and there was an expectation of restocking later, which would support iron ore prices [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the near - term, the market may continue to trade on the winter storage expectation, with prices remaining firm and showing an oscillating trend. After restocking ends, prices will回调, and the market focus will shift to inventory accumulation expectations during the Spring Festival and the overseas mine shipping plans in 2026 [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: 2026 New Year's Day Holiday Market Opening Forecast Report [2] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [3] - Research Institution: Green大华 Futures Research Institute [3] 1. Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The stock index market is expected to have a good start on the first trading day after the New Year's Day holiday, with overseas capital accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets and funds expected to enter the market quickly. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - Precious metals are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [6]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, different varieties have different trends, such as the overall bearish trend of oils, the bottom - oscillating pattern of double - meal, the long - term bearish view of sugar and jujubes, and different support and resistance levels for other varieties [16][17][18][19]. - In the energy and chemical market, the long - term crude oil price may be under bearish pressure, while methanol, urea, bottle chips, and pure benzene are recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and the rubber system can be observed or a small number of BR call options can be held [34][35][36][37]. - In the steel market, it is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried; iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline, and short positions can be pre - arranged; for coking coal and coke, it is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently [55][56][57]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, regional supply shortages will push up copper prices to some extent; aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate around certain prices after the holiday [71][72][73][74]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index - On January 2, the Hong Kong stock market opened, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.7% and the Hang Seng Technology Index soaring 4%, indicating that overseas capital is accelerating the allocation of Chinese assets. It is advisable to quickly establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - style indexes as the main targets and consider buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Bullish on growth - style indexes represented by the CSI 500 index [7]. Treasury Bond - The treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations. The manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the situation. The treasury bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom on the last trading day before the holiday [5][10]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are likely to open higher on Monday, with intensified short - term fluctuations, so it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. The CME Group raised the margin for precious metals, and geopolitical risks have increased [6][13]. Agricultural and Livestock Three Oils and Two Meals - Oils: The short - term long positions held before the holiday should be closed, and the overall trend is bearish. Palm oil has a clear bearish trend, domestic soybean oil may be somewhat resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil should be operated bearishly intraday [16][22]. - Double - meal: Affected by factors such as tightened customs policies, the collapse of overseas soybean costs, and the pressure of a bumper harvest in South America, double - meal may decline to some extent but will be supported at the previous low, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [16]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The ICE raw sugar declined significantly during the holiday. Considering the supply pressure in the international sugar market, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to run weakly after the holiday [26]. - Jujubes: The inventory is at a high level, and the market is turning its attention to demand. The jujube futures price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the near future [26]. Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton: Affected by factors such as holiday trading volume and the strengthening of the US dollar, the ICE cotton futures declined. Considering the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices and its possible transmission to cotton prices, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current position, but the bottom support is strong [29]. - Apple: The overall trading in the apple market is dull, and the snow during the holiday has affected transportation. In the long term, the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate has not been resolved, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [29]. - Log: The supply pressure is controllable, the demand is weaker but better than the same period last year. The low inventory supports the price, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets and the cost limit the downward space. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and interval operations are recommended [29]. Corn, Pig, and Egg - Corn: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend during the holiday. The market is affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support level [31]. - Pig: The pig price weakened after the holiday. The near - month contracts are expected to open lower and then repair, and the contracts in the second half of next year may continue to oscillate [31][32]. - Egg: The egg price was stable during the holiday. The futures price is expected to open relatively stable, but the near - month contracts are expected to decline due to the pessimistic expectation of the spot price in February. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts [32]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US intervention in Venezuela's oil production may put downward pressure on long - term oil prices. Although the current geopolitical conflict has caused a certain risk premium, the impact will be diluted by the large supply surplus [34][41]. Methanol and Urea - Methanol: With the expectation of reduced supply and increased demand, the methanol price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][44]. - Urea: The price of international fertilizers may rise due to the conflict, which may drive up China's export price. The domestic urea inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to have a bullish mindset and pay attention to the actual impact of geopolitical conflicts [35][46]. Bottle Chips and Pure Benzene - Bottle chips: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly following the raw materials. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela [36][49]. - Pure benzene: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. The 03 contract reference range is 5420 - 5650 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up development of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela, the port arrival volume, and the future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [36][51]. Rubber System - It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of BR call options [37]. Steel Steel - Before the holiday, the supply and demand of the five major steel products decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. It is possible to trade the winter storage expectation, and short - term long positions can be tried [55][60]. Iron Ore - The iron ore is expected to oscillate first and then decline. Short positions can be pre - arranged, or a strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore can be tried. The price may be supported by factors such as the increase in daily hot metal production and the expected replenishment of steel mills [56][65]. Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of price cuts for coke may be implemented on January 1. The coke price mainly fluctuates with the coking coal price. It is not recommended to unilaterally short positions currently, and attention should be paid to the main and far - month contracts of coking coal [57][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The regional supply shortage will push up the copper price to some extent. The market's expectation of a 75BP interest rate cut in 2026 is uncertain, which may increase the volatility of the copper price [71][77]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Caustic Soda - Aluminum: The price is expected to oscillate around 21,990 yuan/ton after the holiday. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory depletion and overseas market transmission [72][80]. - Alumina: The price is expected to oscillate around 3,246 yuan/ton after the holiday, and the policy support is limited [73][80]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend after the holiday, and the trend is likely to be linked to the sentiment of the electrolytic aluminum industry chain [74][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for various futures products based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and summarizes macro - financial news and market conditions of different industries. It analyzes the supply - demand relationship, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies [2][7][9][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental - based Trend Judgment - **Trend空头**: Carbonate lithium [2] - **Oscillating偏空**: Synthetic rubber, lead, etc. [2] - **Oscillating**: Ethylene glycol, zinc, etc. [2] - **Oscillating偏多**: Pulp, short - fiber, etc. [2] 2. Quantitative Indicator - based Trend Judgment - **偏空**: Zhengzhou cotton, PTA, etc. [7] - **Oscillating**: Rebar, plastic, etc. [7] - **偏多**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, etc. [7] 3. Macro - news - **Regulatory actions**: The National Internet Information Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have cracked down on false information in the capital market, and punished accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [9]. - **Stock market**: Pingtan Development's stock price fluctuated greatly on December 19th [9]. - **International central bank policies**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a 26 - year high [9]. - **Domestic policies**: The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a draft regulation on the asset - liability management of insurance companies [10]. - **Corporate news**: ByteDance is expected to achieve a record profit of $50 billion in 2025, with its annual revenue expected to increase by over 20%. It is also promoting cooperation with hardware manufacturers on AI mobile phones [10]. 4. Macro - finance - **Stock index futures**: Pay attention to the continuity and structure of liquidity repair. If realized, the index may strengthen. A - shares are oscillating higher, and it is necessary to pay attention to the economic data from January to February next year and the rhythm of macro - policy implementation [14]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Short - and medium - term bonds may oscillate strongly, but the odds are more important than the direction. The probability of the central bank cutting interest rates next week is relatively low [15]. 5. Black Industry - **Coking coal and coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and rise in the short term, but the potential negative feedback risk still restricts the price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink, and the downstream replenishment is slow [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to close out previous long positions and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the short term. The fundamental logic of manganese silicon remains unchanged [18]. 6. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Zinc**: After the macro - positive factors fade, the price is expected to oscillate lower. It is recommended to hold short positions. The short - term market will focus on overseas macro and domestic supply changes [22]. - **Lead**: It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions. The production of electrolytic lead may decline slightly this week [23]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The short - term demand is weakening, and there may be a short - term correction, but it will rise in the long - term and operate in a wide - range oscillation [24]. - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may have some valuation repair opportunities, and polysilicon is expected to be strong under the anti - involution policy. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities on dips [25][26]. 7. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious when short - selling at low prices [30]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rise before the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The contracts after the Spring Festival are under pressure, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory [32]. - **Apples**: The futures price may oscillate. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the price of high - quality goods is firm [34]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price changes in the production area. It is recommended to short - sell the far - month contracts at high prices or look for reverse - spread opportunities [35]. - **Red dates**: Pay close attention to the market performance during the peak consumption season, and currently maintain an oscillating view [36]. - **Pigs**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short - sell the near - month contracts at high prices [38]. 8. Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude oil**: The short - term market focuses on geopolitical factors, but the supply surplus is still the main trading line [39]. - **Fuel oil**: The price will follow the oil price, and the short - term focus is on geopolitical impacts [40]. - **Plastic**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to large supply pressure and weak downstream demand [41]. - **Rubber**: It is recommended to stop profiting on the ru - nr spread strategy in the short term and try short - buying on dips [42]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Short - sell at high prices in the short term, and be cautious when chasing short positions on sharp drops [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term may have some support, and the far - month contracts can be considered for a slightly long - biased allocation after the inventory is smoothly reduced [44]. - **Caustic soda**: Avoid going long on the near - month contracts, and hold long positions on the main contract dynamically [45]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. - **Polyester industry chain**: Consider going long on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunities of PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. - **Liquefied petroleum gas**: The price may oscillate, with support but limited upward momentum [48]. - **Pulp**: Do not chase long positions in the short term. Consider going long on dips if the spot price is stable [49]. - **Log**: The fundamentals are expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance, and the price may oscillate [49]. - **Urea**: Maintain an oscillating view and wait to observe the start of the spot market after the end of environmental protection restrictions [51].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - The main contract of rebar has seen three consecutive days of shrinking trading volume and narrow intraday fluctuations, closing at 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The trading volume was 593,611 lots, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - The futures price was at a discount of 196 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand: Demand has entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. It is at a near - 4 - year low. Spot market transactions are mainly for rigid procurement, and speculative demand is low. Real estate data continued to decline in November, and the real estate sector still drags down demand. Future attention should be paid to infrastructure demand [2] - Inventory: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory shows the current demand resilience. The overall inventory pressure is still controllable [3][4] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry [4] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke have stabilized and rebounded, enhancing cost support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous supply contraction, ongoing inventory destocking, expectations of loose policies, large discount on the futures price providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the stop - fall and rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [6] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [6] Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the decline in production, the rise of furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide support at the bottom. The market has digested the off - season demand and news of steel export licenses. It is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation in the future, and is predicted to run with a slightly upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start of winter storage demand [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the rebar market is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1][6] Core Viewpoint - The current rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the decline in production, the rise in furnace materials, and inventory destocking provide downside support. After the market has digested the off - season demand and the news of steel export licenses, it is expected to trade on the winter storage expectation and run oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether production capacity can continue to shrink and the start node of winter storage demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main rebar contract oscillated and rose during the day, closing at 3,081 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The trading volume was 778,715 lots, showing a stabilizing and rebounding trend in the past two trading days [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 199 yuan/ton to the spot price, which may support the futures price to some extent [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending December 11, rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week - on - week to 1.7878 million tons, and decreased by 392,900 tons year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week - on - week and 1.92% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, down 0.43% from the previous week, and the daily average hot metal output decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.292 million tons. The decline in production was mainly due to blast furnace maintenance and loss - induced production cuts [2] - Demand side: Demand entered the traditional off - season. As of the week ending December 11, the apparent consumption decreased by 138,900 tons week - on - week to 2.0309 million tons, and decreased by 345,700 tons year - on - year. The spot market transactions were mainly for rigid procurement, and the speculative demand was low [2] - Inventory side: As of the week ending December 11, the total inventory decreased by 243,100 tons week - on - week to 4.795 million tons, with the social inventory decreasing by 224,300 tons and the steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 18,800 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed the current demand resilience, and the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [2] Macroeconomic aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference will flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It will focus on stabilizing the real estate market, and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December was in line with expectations. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive [3] Cost aspect - The futures prices of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized and rebounded, enhancing the cost support [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Continuous contraction of supply, continued inventory destocking, policy expectations, large discount on the futures market providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and the rebound of coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real estate data [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 2025 - 10 - 20" [1] - Core View: With the arrival of cooling and snowfall, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly. Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased, while the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [4][5][8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Coking Coal: Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1179 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.55%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions showed a strong trend [4] - Coke: Last week, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1676 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions remained stable for the time being [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Coking Coal Supply - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 87.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The daily output of clean coal was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons. The overall supply of coking coal increased slightly [4] - The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines and coal washing plants was high, and the downstream transportation was active. The clean coal inventory increased, but the increase was not large [4] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of downstream steel mills remained at a high level, and the high rigid demand for coke supported the demand for coking coal [5] - Affected by factors such as the arrival of snowfall and the expectation of winter storage, the price of coking coal continued to rise. However, due to the poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, they were resistant to high - priced coal and mainly purchased on demand [5] - The overall trend of online coking coal auctions was still upward [5] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [5] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Coke Supply - The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The daily output was 652,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 83,000 tons [7] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The increase in coking coal prices compressed the profits of coking enterprises, and the supply of coke decreased slightly [7] - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, the market trading atmosphere was average, the enthusiasm of traders for shipping to ports was average, and the inventory fluctuated little [7] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the rigid demand for coke replenishment was good. However, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and the inventory of steel products accumulated, which inhibited the replenishment demand for coke [7] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [8] Group 5: Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average value of 1.43. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [8] Group 6: Inventory Data Coking Coal Inventory - Port inventory was 2.7271 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 222,800 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 9.9737 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 383,100 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 7.8832 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 71,900 tons [9] - Total inventory was 20.584 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,200 tons [9] Coke Inventory - Port inventory was 1.9515 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 6.3944 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons [9] - Total inventory was 8.9188 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,700 tons [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in coal prices is driven by a combination of supply constraints, resilient demand, and expectations for winter stockpiling [1][2]. Supply Side - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a price of 680 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan per ton [1]. - Post-holiday supply factors include rainfall affecting coal production, concentrated maintenance on the Daqin line reducing port shipments, price inversions, and lack of shipping enthusiasm, leading to a significant decrease in coal supply [1]. - The average daily coal intake at nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.482 million tons, a 20% decrease compared to the previous cycle [1]. Demand Side - In the first half of October, despite the traditional consumption off-season, southern regions experienced high temperatures, resulting in power plants' daily coal consumption being 15% to 20% higher year-on-year [1]. - Some power plants released demand for replenishment post-holiday, coinciding with shipping disruptions that caused minor imbalances in coal supply and demand, providing support for coal prices [1]. Future Outlook - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to accelerate beyond market expectations in the short term [2]. - As high temperatures in southern regions subside and the market digests the post-holiday demand increase, the sentiment of holding onto coal stocks may weaken, leading to a gradual reduction in price support [2]. - It is anticipated that coal prices will stabilize and trend towards oscillation in late October [2].