【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：成交缩量窄幅震荡 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约连续三日成交缩量，日内窄幅震荡，收于 3084 元/吨，上涨 3 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%。成交量 593611 手。近三个交易日 呈现企稳回升走势。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3280 元/吨，较 上一交易日持平。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 196 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上可能支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截止 12 月 11 当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 10.53 万吨至 178.78 万吨，公历同比下降 39.29 万吨，产量处于近 4 年低位。我的钢铁网 公布的 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%，环比下降 1.53 个百分点。同比去年 减少 1.92%。钢厂盈利率 35.93%，较上一周下降 0.43%，日均铁水产量减少 3.1 万吨至 229.2 万吨。本轮产量下降原因主要由于高炉检修，亏损减产导 致。后续关注本周四产量数据。 需求端：需求进入传统淡季，截止 12 月 11 日当周，表 ...

一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约日内震荡上涨，收于 3081 元/吨，上涨 17 元/吨，涨幅 0.55%。成交量 778715 手。近两个交易日呈现企稳回升走势。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3280 元/吨，较 上一交易日上涨 10 元/吨。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 199 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上可能支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截止 12 月 11 当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 10.53 万吨至 178.78 万吨，公历同比下降 39.29 万吨，产量处于近 4 年低位。我的钢铁网 公布的 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.63%，环比下降 1.53 个百分点。同比去年 减少 1.92%。钢厂盈利率 35.93%，较上一周下降 0.43%，日均铁水产量减少 3.1 万吨至 229.2 万吨。本轮产量下降原因主要由于高炉检修，亏损减产导 致。后续关注本周产量数据。 需求端：需求进入传统淡季，截止 12 月 11 日当周，表观消费量周 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report 2025 - 10 - 20" [1] - Core View: With the arrival of cooling and snowfall, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated strongly. Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased, while the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coking coal 2601 contract and the coke 2601 contract both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [4][5][8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Coking Coal: Last week, the coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1179 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.55%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions showed a strong trend [4] - Coke: Last week, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1676 on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The mainstream spot market prices in major regions remained stable for the time being [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - Coking Coal Supply - The utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 87.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.4%. The utilization rate of the production capacity of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The daily output of clean coal was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons. The overall supply of coking coal increased slightly [4] - The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines and coal washing plants was high, and the downstream transportation was active. The clean coal inventory increased, but the increase was not large [4] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of downstream steel mills remained at a high level, and the high rigid demand for coke supported the demand for coking coal [5] - Affected by factors such as the arrival of snowfall and the expectation of winter storage, the price of coking coal continued to rise. However, due to the poor profitability of coking and steel enterprises, they were resistant to high - priced coal and mainly purchased on demand [5] - The overall trend of online coking coal auctions was still upward [5] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coking coal both increased. The coking coal 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [5] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - Coke Supply - The utilization rate of the production capacity of all - sample independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74.24%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%. The daily output was 652,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 83,000 tons [7] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The increase in coking coal prices compressed the profits of coking enterprises, and the supply of coke decreased slightly [7] - The spot price of coke at ports remained stable, the market trading atmosphere was average, the enthusiasm of traders for shipping to ports was average, and the inventory fluctuated little [7] Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, and the rigid demand for coke replenishment was good. However, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, and the inventory of steel products accumulated, which inhibited the replenishment demand for coke [7] Summary - Last week, the supply and demand of coke both decreased. The coke 2601 contract fluctuated strongly last week, and short - term attention should be paid to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average [8] Group 5: Arbitrage - Last week, the coking coal - to - coke ratio dropped significantly, with an average value of 1.43. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the range of 1.35 - 1.55 [8] Group 6: Inventory Data Coking Coal Inventory - Port inventory was 2.7271 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 222,800 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 9.9737 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 383,100 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 7.8832 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 71,900 tons [9] - Total inventory was 20.584 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,200 tons [9] Coke Inventory - Port inventory was 1.9515 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [9] - All - sample independent coking plant inventory was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons [9] - 247 sample steel mill inventory was 6.3944 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons [9] - Total inventory was 8.9188 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178,700 tons [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in coal prices is driven by a combination of supply constraints, resilient demand, and expectations for winter stockpiling [1][2]. Supply Side - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a price of 680 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan per ton [1]. - Post-holiday supply factors include rainfall affecting coal production, concentrated maintenance on the Daqin line reducing port shipments, price inversions, and lack of shipping enthusiasm, leading to a significant decrease in coal supply [1]. - The average daily coal intake at nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.482 million tons, a 20% decrease compared to the previous cycle [1]. Demand Side - In the first half of October, despite the traditional consumption off-season, southern regions experienced high temperatures, resulting in power plants' daily coal consumption being 15% to 20% higher year-on-year [1]. - Some power plants released demand for replenishment post-holiday, coinciding with shipping disruptions that caused minor imbalances in coal supply and demand, providing support for coal prices [1]. Future Outlook - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to accelerate beyond market expectations in the short term [2]. - As high temperatures in southern regions subside and the market digests the post-holiday demand increase, the sentiment of holding onto coal stocks may weaken, leading to a gradual reduction in price support [2]. - It is anticipated that coal prices will stabilize and trend towards oscillation in late October [2].