华阳股份 20250521 摘要 公司预计煤炭价格底部在 600 元/吨，主要基于秦皇岛港 5,500 大卡市 场价判断，受一季度暖冬及疆煤外运等因素扰动，但迎峰度夏或支撑煤 价，反弹空间或小于预期。 若煤价维持当前 610 元/吨或反弹，长协煤顶格上限 570 元/吨执行问题 不大；若跌至 580 元/吨左右，需与客户调整，但保供政策和行业合作 关系短期内可维持价格稳定。 公司保供煤指标 1,909 万吨，总产量 3,500 万吨中约 1,600 万吨为市 场煤，随行就市，因此公司业绩对市场煤价波动较为敏感。 公司 2025 年生产目标 3,800 万吨，前四个月产销率 100%。七元矿井 预计下半年投产贡献 150 万吨，玻璃矿井年底联试，明年贡献 150 万 吨，于家庄资源处于碳转化阶段，短期内不贡献产能。 新建七元和玻璃矿井以动力末煤为主，初期成本较高，但后续降本空间 大，单工效率将明显改善。七元无烟煤热值 5,500-5,700 大卡，利润较 高，主要客户为五大电厂。 Q&A 截至 2025 年 5 月中旬，公司在煤炭生产方面的情况如何，包括产量、销量以 及长协煤的兑现比例是否有边际变化？ 在煤炭产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent safety incident at the subsidiary of Dayou Energy has exacerbated the company's operational challenges, with significant implications for its revenue and production capacity [1][3][4]. Group 1: Incident Details - On May 15, 2024, Dayou Energy's wholly-owned subsidiary, Mengjin Coal Mine, experienced an accident resulting in one fatality, leading to a suspension of operations [1][3]. - The accident occurred near the safety exit of the mining face, caused by a coal cutter colliding with a drill rod, which injured a worker who later died in the hospital [3][4]. - Mengjin Coal Mine contributes 12.71% of the company's coal production and 11.78% of its revenue, with a projected output of 123.05 million tons and revenue of 5.81 billion yuan for 2024 [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Dayou Energy has faced declining revenues and continuous losses, with a total loss of approximately 1.88 billion yuan over the past two years [1][11]. - The company's revenue has been decreasing since 2023, with the net profit attributable to shareholders showing persistent losses [1][11]. - The company's financial instability is highlighted by its high asset-liability ratio, which reached 70.61% as of March 2024, the highest level in its history [13]. Group 3: Research and Development - Dayou Energy's R&D investment has decreased for three consecutive years, dropping from 205 million yuan in 2021 to 154 million yuan in 2024 [2][8]. - The reduction in R&D spending raises concerns about the company's safety awareness and technological capabilities, potentially contributing to the frequency of accidents [8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Industry Comparison - Dayou Energy has a history of safety incidents, including a significant fire in 2023 that resulted in five fatalities and highlighted deficiencies in safety measures [5][6]. - The company's profitability has been volatile, with multiple years of losses linked to fluctuations in coal prices, contrasting with industry leader China Shenhua, which has maintained profitability [12].