丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 如何看待焦煤期货大跌原因及持续性？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周焦煤期货大幅下跌，主力合约累计下跌 8.16%。从基本面角度，如何看待焦煤期货大跌原 因及持续性？我们认为下跌主因焦煤供应增加预期，然而安监政策持续下供应偏紧格局难根本 解决，价格回调幅度有限，建议关注权益高赔率低位布局机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 如何看待焦煤期货大跌原因及持续性？ [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：动力煤盘整等待旺季日耗上行催化，焦煤价格弱稳 本周煤炭指数(长江)下 ...

俄须密切监测市场动态 "NEFT调查"公司合伙人科托夫认为，动力煤价格年底前将保持温和上涨态势："季节性需求将支撑价格 走势，但中国消费总量仍有限，因此价格涨幅不会很大。"炼焦煤尚未出现持续涨价的情况，但局部地 区缺煤可能引发短期价格波动，短暂影响俄罗斯公司收益。 俄罗斯"能源与金融研究所"基金会专家季托夫说，中国市场形势改善，让部分俄罗斯煤炭从进口量下降 的韩国转向中国。这有助于俄罗斯出口商优化物流并扩大利润，但需要精准协调供货，密切监测市场动 态。 根据大宗商品咨询机构BigMint的数据，中国9月煤炭进口量较8月增长7.64%，至4600万吨，创今年单月 新高，增长主要来自印尼、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和蒙古。 来源：环球时报 【环球时报综合报道】在中国经济回暖与冬季临近的背景下，俄罗斯煤炭市场呈现稳步增长态势。俄罗 斯企业动力煤和冶金煤价格一周内上涨数个百分点，但同时俄煤企也面临来自其他国家供应商的激烈竞 争。 中国煤炭市场至关重要 中国煤炭市场形势能反映全球能源和冶金行业趋势。中国对俄罗斯煤炭的需求变化与季节相关。对俄罗 斯企业而言，中国煤炭市场的机遇与挑战并存：俄企既有增加收入、巩固出口地位的机会，又必须 ...

Group 1 - The average profit for independent coking plants in China is 19 CNY per ton of coke, with regional variations such as 20 CNY in Shanxi and 80 CNY in Shandong [1] - The average daily coke production from 247 sampled steel mills is 46.22 thousand tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.23% [1] - Coking coal inventory has increased to 797.08 thousand tons, with an available days supply of 12.97 days [1] Group 2 - Recent market conditions for coking coal have weakened, with the average profit for coke increasing by 53 CNY per ton, reaching a two-month high [2] - Independent coking enterprises have seen a 12.3% increase in coke inventory, totaling 652.9 thousand tons, while steel mill coke inventory has slightly decreased [2] - There are mixed opinions on future price adjustments, with some suggesting that weak downstream demand may lead to price reductions [2][3] Group 3 - The metallurgical coke prices in the Lüliang market have stabilized after a recent increase of 50-55 CNY per ton [3] - The average price for various grades of metallurgical coke ranges from 1685 to 1805 CNY per ton [3] Group 4 - The online auction prices for high-sulfur coking coal in the Lüliang market have decreased, with transaction prices between 1220 and 1250 CNY per ton [5] - The overall market for coking coal in the Jinzhong area is showing a weak trend, with prices remaining under pressure [6] Group 5 - The import market for coking coal is showing a weak trend, with Australian coking coal prices remaining stable at around 214.0 USD per ton [7] - The Mongolian coking coal market is also experiencing a downturn, with prices declining due to weak demand [8] Group 6 - China's coal imports for October 2025 reached 31.14 million tons, marking a 14.2% year-on-year decline [16] - The average coal price in Shanxi province was reported at 955.92 CNY per ton, with a 2.9% increase week-on-week [17]

（来源：CCTD中国煤炭市场网） 内蒙古自治区商务厅消息，2025年10月份受气温气候变化、原油价格波动、农业生产进程和建筑工程进 度等因素影响，全区各类生产资料价格均有不同程度的涨跌波动。 据商务部生产资料市场监测系统数据显示：系统监测的品种样本大类平均价格与前一月比（下称环比） 降多涨少，其中水泥价格环比上涨；煤炭、成品油批发、成品油零售、钢材和化肥价格环比下降。 具体监测情况分析如下： 从监测样本数据来看，10月份，内蒙古煤炭平均价格为690.97元/吨，环比下降1.0%，与去年同一时期 相比（下称同比）下降9.2%。 来源：市场资讯 进入监测月，下游用煤企业的采购意愿谨慎，需求恢复缓慢，买方市场让各地的煤价都承压走低，拉动 价格环比下降。预计近期煤炭市场运行稳定，价格将涨跌震荡运行。 编辑| 徐赫阳 其中，无烟煤2号洗选块煤均价为848.22元/吨，环比上涨0.5%，同比下降4.0%；动力煤发热量5000- 5500大卡煤均价为516.24元/吨，环比下降2.8%，同比下降21.2%；炼焦煤1/3焦煤均价为708.46元/吨，环 比下降1.4%，同比下降4.9%。 随着煤炭行业的发展，智能化使得生产效 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has increased for five consecutive weeks, reaching 685 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and rising heating demand, but is expected to face downward pressure due to improved transportation capacity and reduced consumption by downstream power plants [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index rose by 1 yuan per ton week-on-week, marking a continuous increase for five weeks [1]. - Factors contributing to the price increase include expectations of supply constraints, cost support, and heightened demand for heating [1]. - The index's growth rate has narrowed due to the end of maintenance on the Daqin railway, which restored transportation capacity, and a decline in daily consumption by power plants [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, safety production assessments and the completion of monthly production tasks by some coal mines have led to enhanced expectations of supply constraints [1]. - Northern ports are experiencing shortages, and traders are maintaining a firm pricing stance due to increased heating demand as winter approaches [1]. - Conversely, on the demand side, the daily consumption of coal by coastal power plants has decreased to 1.8 million tons, and inventory levels have risen, leading to a more cautious market outlook [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently characterized by a strong bearish sentiment, influenced by price reductions from major groups and a pause in purchases by traders [1][2]. - The overall demand remains weak, creating a balance with the tight supply of high-quality low-sulfur coal resources [2]. - Future price movements will depend on the actual release of winter storage demand and potential adjustments in railway freight rates [2].

Summary of Conference Call on Thermal Power Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the thermal power industry in China, particularly the valuation and performance of thermal power stocks in the context of coal prices and regional supply-demand dynamics [1][4][19]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Valuation Recovery Logic for 2026**: The core logic for the valuation recovery of thermal power stocks in 2026 is based on the signing of annual long-term contracts. Guizhou Province has already disclosed relevant documents, and other provinces are expected to follow suit. The stability of these contracts is crucial for performance improvement and market acceptance [1][4]. 2. **Regional Supply-Demand Dynamics**: - Northern regions have no overcapacity, and electricity prices are determined by supply and demand, indicating potential for price increases. - Southern regions face overcapacity, with electricity prices closely tied to coal prices, meaning a drop in coal prices will directly affect electricity prices [1][6]. 3. **Coal Price Trends**: Short-term coal prices are expected to remain strong due to good industrial demand and policy support. However, coal prices may weaken in the first quarter of 2026, providing a good opportunity for valuation correction of power stocks [5][9]. 4. **Dividend Policy Changes**: The thermal power sector is expected to see changes in dividend policies, with an increase in dividend yields anticipated due to improved profitability in 2025. This will enhance the overall return levels of the thermal power sector [9]. 5. **Comparison with Overseas Markets**: The valuation of China's thermal power sector is significantly lower than that of overseas markets, where valuations range from 20 to 25 times earnings compared to 6 to 8 times in China. This discrepancy suggests a potential for valuation correction in the domestic thermal power sector [10]. 6. **Importance of Thermal Power**: Thermal power is recognized for its role as a peak-shaving power source, which cannot be fully replaced by rapidly developing renewable energy sources. Its stable and continuous cash flow justifies a higher valuation [13]. 7. **Future Demand Growth**: The annual electricity demand growth is projected to be around 5%, driven by increased demand from electric vehicles and AI, as well as a recovery in the real estate market. This growth is expected to balance the supply-demand situation despite the addition of new thermal power capacity [18]. 8. **Investment Opportunities**: Investors who missed the current thermal power stock rally are encouraged to look for new opportunities starting in mid-December, as many companies may exceed performance expectations in upcoming quarterly reports [17]. Other Important Insights - **Impact of Policy Changes**: Recent policy adjustments regarding tax rebates for nuclear and wind energy may affect the competitive landscape, particularly in overcapacity areas [14]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The traditional energy sector, including thermal power, is expected to gain more attention and support, with significant potential for market value growth as the sector is currently undervalued [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the thermal power industry, highlighting the factors influencing its valuation and future performance.

Group 1: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have rebounded, with Qinhuangdao port 5500K thermal coal spot prices surpassing 700 CNY/ton on September 18, marking a week-on-week increase of 19 CNY/ton [1] - As of September 25, the price reached 709 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of over 10% since the end of June [1] - Coking coal prices have also surged, with main futures rising from 725.5 CNY/ton in early June to 1234.5 CNY/ton by September 25, a rise of approximately 70% [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Influences - Policy-driven production halts and adverse weather have led to decreased coal output, compounded by reduced imports [2] - The National Energy Administration has initiated inspections of coal mines to ensure compliance with production limits, particularly in key coal-producing provinces [2][3] - In Inner Mongolia, inspections revealed that 93 out of 299 coal mines were operating beyond their approved capacities, necessitating corrective actions [3] Group 3: Production and Import Data - National statistics indicate a decline in industrial raw coal production, with July's output at 3.8 million tons (down 3.8% year-on-year) and August's at 3.9 million tons (down 3.2%) [6] - Coal imports from January to August totaled 29.99 million tons, a decrease of 12.2% compared to the previous year [6] - Northern port inventories have dropped significantly, with inventory levels at the Bohai Rim ports falling from 30.46 million tons in mid-May to 20.82 million tons by September 25 [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The coal market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, with supply-side factors exerting more influence on prices [6] - Analysts predict that coal prices will experience a volatile upward trend towards the end of the year, with reduced inventory levels alleviating price pressures [7] - The coal sector has seen a recent surge in stock prices, with companies like Huayang Co. and Luan Energy reporting significant gains [7]

Core Viewpoint - Haohua Energy reported a significant decline in financial performance for the first half of the year, primarily due to a sharp drop in coal prices, leading to decreased revenue and net profit [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 4.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 448 million yuan, down 47.82% from 859 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.31 yuan [1] Revenue Drivers - The decline in financial metrics is mainly attributed to a significant reduction in self-produced coal revenue due to falling coal prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a significant decline in the financial performance of Anhui Hengyuan Coal and Electricity Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices and reduced sales volume, resulting in substantial losses compared to the previous year [2][3][4]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company reported a total revenue of approximately 2.38 billion RMB, a decrease of 38.94% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - The total profit for the period was a loss of approximately 89.83 million RMB, a decline of 109.97% year-on-year [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of approximately 129.21 million RMB, down 117.04% from the previous year [2][3]. - The company's total assets decreased by 4.89% to approximately 19.53 billion RMB compared to the end of the previous year [2][3]. Industry and Main Business Situation - The coal mining industry experienced an oversupply, leading to price declines and profit reductions in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The production of raw coal increased by 5.4% year-on-year, totaling 2.4 billion tons, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [3][4]. - The company's coal sales primarily consist of mixed coal, washed coal, and block coal, mainly serving the electricity and steel industries [3][4]. Operational Analysis - The company's raw coal production was approximately 4.77 million tons, a decrease of 3.51% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal dropped by 13% to 3.38 million tons [3][4]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 30.63%, leading to a significant drop in revenue from coal sales, which fell by 39.65% [3][4]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was negative, amounting to approximately -229.13 million RMB, a decline of 123.82% compared to the previous year [3][4]. Financial Condition Analysis - The company’s net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.60% to approximately 11.92 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company’s financial expenses increased significantly by 239.30%, primarily due to reduced interest income and increased interest expenses [4]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased by 7.19% to approximately 5.02 billion RMB [4]. Core Competitiveness - The company maintains a competitive advantage due to its strategic location, which facilitates logistics and reduces transportation costs [3][4]. - The company has implemented advanced mining technologies and practices, enhancing production efficiency and safety [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in early August, coal production increased slightly due to rainfall and safety inspections, but supply from production areas has not fully recovered [1] - The report highlights that with the gradual release of market demand, coal sales from key monitored enterprises have steadily rebounded [1] - In the electricity sector, high temperatures have led to record-high power plant loads, and coal consumption for thermal power generation has increased due to lower-than-expected hydropower output [1] Group 2 - In the steel industry, steel companies are maintaining high operational levels, resulting in increased pig iron production and coal consumption among key monitored coking steel enterprises [1] - The report notes that due to slow recovery in upstream supply and strong downstream demand, coal inventories at major production and transfer locations, as well as downstream steel and coking enterprises, have decreased to varying degrees [1] - In early August, domestic and international coal prices experienced fluctuations, with the price advantage of imported thermal coal over domestic coal further expanding [2]