山西焦煤 20260227 摘要 2025 年公司综合商品售价预计下降 200 多元/吨，煤炭板块收入下滑是 业绩承压主因，电力板块盈利规模小，焦化与建材板块亏损与 2024 年 持平，西山煤气化关停产生额外成本。 2025 年煤炭产量约 4,600 万吨，完成计划指引，销量略降。2026 年 产量指引预计维持在 4,600 万吨左右，煤种结构稳定，焦、肥、气、瘦 煤长期保持约"三分之一焦"的组合特征。 兴县区块探转采进展缓慢，预计 3-5 年内难以投产，战略价值在于与斜 沟矿协同，利用其选煤厂能力和铁路专用线，降低运输成本。 精煤产量稳定在 1,600-1,800 万吨，焦精煤占比约 40%，肥精煤约 400 多万吨，瘦精煤略低于 400 万吨，气精煤约 300 万吨左右。 对兴县项目 2030 年投产持谨慎态度，资金压力大，竞拍成本已达 247 亿元，且煤价偏弱，经济性存疑。该项目主要用于衔接链条煤矿西区矿 的产能。 2026 年 1 月焦煤降价，2 月价格稳定但部分煤种小幅下调。沙曲低硫 煤约 1,520 元/吨，高硫煤约 1,450 元/吨，马兰肥煤约 1,500 元/吨， 月度调价贴近市场，品牌集群 ...

事件： 2026年2月25日晚，兖矿能源的海外核心子公司兖煤澳大利亚（3668.HK）发布2025年业绩。2025年，公司实现营业收入59.49 亿澳元，同比下降14%；实现归母净利润4.40亿澳元，同比下降64%。 本文源自报告：《量增本降显韧性，价涨利增看弹性》 2026年公司产量和成本指引区间小幅上升，2026年有望实现净利润5.4亿澳元，为兖矿能源带来盈利贡献约16.38亿元。展望 2026年，公司权益商品煤产量指引为3650-4050万吨，现金经营成本指引为90-98澳元/吨，资本开支指引为7.5-9.0亿澳元，整 体经营目标保持稳健。我们预计，2026年公司商品煤产量有望实现在指引区间上沿；现金成本较2025年保持稳态；煤价方 面，受益于煤炭供给端收缩，2026年煤炭中枢价格有望较2025年实现抬升。综上，我们预计兖煤澳洲2026年有望实现净利润 5.4亿澳元，对应兖矿能源62.26%的持股比例，有望带来盈利贡献约3.36亿澳元（约合16.38亿元人民币）。 盈利预测及评级：我们持续看好拥有海外优质煤炭资产，且具备持续成长能力和高成长空间的能源化工龙头兖矿能源，我们 对兖矿能源2025-2027年 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：Yan CHEN/Lingzhi WANG Stable payout ratio. The firm proposed to pay a total dividend of AUD0.18 /sh in 2025, representing 55% of its earnings per share for the year (vs. 50% in 2023 and 56% in 2024). Trends to watch Production and cost guidance for 2026 has increased compared to 2025, while capex guidance remains largely unchanged. According to corporate filings, Yancoal Australia guides equity-based thermal coal output at 36.5– 40.5mnt in 2026, with cash cost per tonne (excluding royalties) bei ...

[Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 兖矿能源(600188) 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 兖煤澳洲：量增本降显韧性，价涨利增看弹性 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 事件：2026 年 2 月 25 日晚，兖矿能源的海外核心子公司兖煤澳大利亚 （3668.HK）发布 2025 年业绩。2025 年，公司实现营业收入 59.49 亿澳 元，同比下降 14%；实现归母净利润 4 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 兖矿能源(600188) 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 李睿：煤炭钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 兖煤澳洲：量增本降显韧性，价涨利增看弹性 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 27 日 事件：2026 年 2 月 25 日晚，兖矿能源的海外核心子公司兖煤澳大利亚 （3668.HK）发布 2025 年业绩。2025 年，公司实现营业收入 59.49 亿澳 元，同比下降 14%；实现归母净利润 4 ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are at a turning point, with both thermal coal and coking coal prices expected to rebound. The price of thermal coal is influenced by policies and is expected to go through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants [4][15] - The report highlights that the current thermal coal price is below the profit-sharing line of 750 CNY/ton, but it is expected to gradually recover to this reasonable price level. The demand for coal is increasing due to the heating season and industrial production ramping up [3][4] - Coking coal prices are more market-driven and are expected to fluctuate based on supply and demand fundamentals. The report provides target prices for coking coal based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise due to the dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand. The report outlines that the price recovery will be driven by the repair of long-term contracts and the need to reach a profit-sharing position for coal and power companies [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by market dynamics, with target prices provided based on the ratio to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - As of January 24, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 685 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous period. The report notes that the price has reached the estimated target range of 800-860 CNY/ton [3][21] - The report also mentions that the average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.05, and the PB ratio is 1.34, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [10][21]

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has slightly decreased, reflecting a balance of market forces amid seasonal demand and supply dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index reported at 685 yuan per ton, down by 1 yuan from the previous period [1] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors, with a recent cold wave not sufficiently countering the multi-source replenishment at terminals [1] - Coastal coal prices have stopped rising and have slightly declined due to stable shipments from main production areas and sufficient supply at transfer ports [1] Group 2: Seasonal Demand - The winter heating season is in full swing, with daily coal consumption at coastal power plants 300,000 tons higher than the same period last year, indicating strong seasonal demand [1] - The impact of the cold air mass has led to high daily consumption levels, but replenishment at terminals remains stable and orderly [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As the cold wave subsides and temperatures are expected to rise, coal consumption in the coastal market is anticipated to decline from high levels [1] - With the upcoming Spring Festival, small and medium-sized coal mines and terminal factories will begin to close, leading to a period of weakened supply and demand in the coastal coal market [1] - The probability of coal prices remaining weak and stable in the short term is increasing due to insufficient operational rates in the upstream and downstream sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daya Energy (600403) has announced a significant expected loss for 2025, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price, reflecting broader challenges in the coal industry due to falling prices and operational issues [1][2]. Company Summary - Daya Energy's stock price hit a limit down at 6.9 CNY per share, with a cumulative decline of over 16% in three trading days [1]. - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately -1.7 billion CNY for 2025, an increase in loss of about 609 million CNY compared to the previous year [1]. - The company reported a net loss of -481 million CNY and a non-recurring net loss of -622 million CNY for 2023, and projected losses of -1.09 billion CNY and -1.15 billion CNY for 2024 [1]. Industry Summary - The average selling price of Daya Energy's coal is expected to decrease by approximately 126 CNY per ton in 2025, leading to a profit reduction of about 1.35 billion CNY [2]. - The coal market has been under pressure, with prices dropping significantly; for instance, the price of Q5000 grade thermal coal in Shandong fell from 715 CNY per ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 525-560 CNY per ton by mid-June, a decline of 24.13% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, coal production remained stable, but high inventory levels and limited demand have kept prices low [3]. - The overall coal price is expected to remain low in 2025, affecting the financial performance of various companies in the industry, including Shaanxi Black Cat, which also projected significant losses for the year [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a decrease in coking coal supply, indicating a potential for price recovery due to low inventory levels and reduced supply [6][25] - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 6.26% compared to the index's 2.79% rise, marking a 3.47 percentage point advantage [2] - The report suggests that the current policy environment is balancing between "checking overproduction and ensuring supply," which may lead to stronger policy support as coal prices decline [6][25] Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.05 million tons for the week ending January 8, 2026, a week-on-week increase of 17.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [2] - Demand: The power and chemical industries showed mixed results, with coal consumption in the power sector decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, while the chemical sector increased by 9.2% [2][23] - Inventory: Total coal inventory (including port storage) stood at 23.48 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but down 11% year-on-year [2][23] Price Summary - Coking coal prices at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at Jing-Tang Port at 1,650 CNY/ton, down 2.9% week-on-week [4] - The report notes that the futures settlement price for coking coal increased by 6.5% week-on-week to 1,188 CNY/ton, indicating market volatility [4][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and resilient coking coal companies, with specific companies highlighted for investment [6][25] - Notable companies in thermal coal include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, while coking coal companies include Huabei Mining, Shanxi Coking Coal, and others [6][25]