美妆代运营正在挣扎"上岸" 开年以来，丽人丽妆、凯淳股份、壹网壹创、若羽臣、青木科技五大美妆代运营商先后发布了2025年业绩预告。 与前三季度集体承压、财报惨淡，仅有寥寥两家维持增长的景象不同，年末却意外迎来业绩回暖信号，多家企业预告业绩改善。 但这份"暖意"并未普照整个行业，曾经依附美妆品牌成长、赚足流量红利的代运营商，如今正经历前所未有的生存考验，"日子不好过"已成为行业普遍现 象。 只是，有人"浮沉"，也有人开始有人陆续"上岸"了。 01 整体有所增长 但仍难言乐观 过去一年，美妆代运营行业被冠以"集体寒冬"的标签。 从第一季度到第三季度，多数企业的财报都难言乐观，仅有若羽臣、青木股份等少数公司保持增长态势。然而，到了年底的年终业绩预告，行业似乎出现 了一丝回暖的迹象。 | 公司名称 | 预计归母净利润 | 预计同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 若羽臣 | 1.76亿元 - 2.00亿元 | +67% 至 +89% | | 青木科技 | 1.18亿元 - 1.36亿元 | +30% 至 +50% | | 壹网壹创 | 9203万元 - 1.196亿元 | +21.10% 至 +57. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the duty-free sales sector in Hainan, with January sales reaching 4.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32% [5][15] - The company "Guoquan" is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.75-7.85 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8%-21.3%, with net profit projected to be 443-463 million yuan, a significant increase of 83.7%-92% [21][24] - The AI application sector is experiencing notable growth, with "Meitu Design Studio" and "Kuaishou Keling" seeing substantial increases in user engagement and revenue [26][31] Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales in Hainan are showing strong growth, with cumulative shopping amounts reaching 10.05 billion yuan since the new policy implementation, a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [15][17] - The average daily passenger flow at Haikou Meilan and Sanya Phoenix airports has increased, indicating a robust tourism market [18][19] Guoquan - Guoquan's revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 7.75-7.85 billion yuan, with a net profit of 443-463 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [21][24] - The company plans to expand its store network significantly, adding 1,416 new stores to reach a total of 11,566, focusing on lower-tier markets [22][27] AI Applications - "Meitu Design Studio" has seen a significant increase in domestic traffic, with a month-on-month growth of 29.76% in November and 23.53% in December 2025 [30][31] - "Kuaishou Keling" has launched a new model, achieving a 350% increase in paid users and generating over 20 million USD in revenue in December 2025 [31][33] Beauty and Health Brands - "Qingmu Technology" is expected to see a profit increase of 30%-50% in 2025, with its private care brand "Keman Duo" showing strong sales growth [34][35] - "Zuccari" is also projected to grow significantly, with a revenue increase of over 95% in the first half of 2025 [36] Instant Retail - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with Alibaba's "Taobao Flash Purchase" showing rapid growth in order volume and revenue [57][59] - The report indicates that the demand for instant delivery services is increasing, benefiting companies like "SF Same City" [61][62]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company**: 青木科技 (Qingmu Technology) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods and AI Technology Key Financial Projections - **2025 Net Profit Forecast**: Expected to be between 118 million to 136 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Net Profit**: Projected to be between 38 million to 56 million CNY, with a significant increase of 108% to 207% year-on-year [1] - **2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Anticipated to be between 102 million to 117 million CNY, also reflecting a growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Expected to be between 27 million to 42 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 72% to 172% [1] Brand Growth and Acquisitions - **Self-owned Brands**: The brands 珂蔓朵 (Keman Duo) and 意卡莉 (Yikali) are projected to achieve 600 million CNY in revenue for 2025, indicating a doubling in growth [2] - **Future Projections**: For 2026, self-owned brands are expected to reach 1 billion CNY in revenue with a profit margin of 10% [2] - **Acquisitions**: The acquisition of Norway's VITALIS PHARMA and the domestic distribution rights for Noromega are expected to significantly contribute to profits, with Noromega projected to generate approximately 500 million CNY in revenue for 2025 at a 10% net profit margin [2] - **Performance Targets**: The performance targets for VITALIS are set to contribute 19 million CNY and 26 million CNY to net profit in 2027 and 2028, respectively [2] AI Integration and Efficiency - **Cost Reduction and Efficiency**: The company has a strong technical foundation in non-standard apparel and has developed tools like 青木啄木鸟 (Qingmu Woodpecker) and 青木小白 (Qingmu Xiaobai) to enhance operational efficiency [2] - **Partnership with Alibaba**: As an AI service provider for Alibaba, the company aims to leverage big data to improve model accuracy and advertising efficiency, strengthening its competitive position in the operational sector [2] - **Potential Catalysts**: With increasing attention on AI applications, companies with established AI capabilities are likely to experience further growth opportunities [2] Investment Recommendations - **Future Earnings Estimate**: Projected earnings for 2026 are estimated to be around 240 million to 250 million CNY, corresponding to a current price-to-earnings ratio of 30x [2] - **Stock Price Drivers**: Rapid progress in acquisitions, successful brand launches, and heightened interest in AI-related concepts are expected to drive stock price upward, warranting investor attention [2]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - **Company**: 青木科技 (Qingmu Technology) - **Industry**: Consumer Goods and AI Technology Key Financial Projections - **2025 Net Profit Forecast**: Expected to be between 118 million to 136 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Net Profit**: Projected to be between 38 million to 56 million CNY, with a significant increase of 108% to 207% year-on-year [1] - **2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Anticipated to be between 102 million to 117 million CNY, also reflecting a growth of 30% to 50% [1] - **Q4 2025 Non-GAAP Net Profit**: Expected to be between 27 million to 42 million CNY, with a growth of 72% to 172% year-on-year [1] Brand Growth and Acquisitions - **Self-owned Brands**: The brands 珂蔓朵 (Keman Duo) and 意卡莉 (Yikali) are projected to generate 600 million CNY in revenue for 2025, indicating a doubling in growth [2] - **Future Projections**: For 2026, self-owned brand revenue is expected to reach 1 billion CNY with a profit margin of 10% [2] - **Acquisitions**: The acquisition of Norway's VITALIS PHARMA and the domestic distribution rights for Noromega are expected to significantly contribute to profits, with Noromega projected to generate approximately 500 million CNY in revenue for 2025 at a 10% net profit margin [2] - **Performance Targets**: The performance targets for VITALIS are set to contribute 1.9 million CNY and 2.6 million CNY to net profit in 2027 and 2028, respectively [2] AI Integration and Efficiency - **Cost Reduction and Efficiency**: The company has a strong technical foundation in non-standard apparel and has developed tools like 青木啄木鸟 (Qingmu Woodpecker) and 青木小白 (Qingmu Xiaobai) to enhance operational efficiency [2] - **Partnership with Alibaba**: As an AI service provider for Alibaba, the company aims to leverage big data to improve model accuracy and advertising efficiency, thereby strengthening its competitive edge in the operational sector [2] - **Potential Catalysts**: With increasing attention on AI applications, companies with established AI capabilities are likely to experience further growth opportunities [2] Investment Recommendations - **Future Earnings Projection**: Estimated earnings for 2026 are around 240 million to 250 million CNY, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 30x [2] - **Stock Price Drivers**: Rapid progress in acquisitions, successful brand launches, and heightened interest in AI-related concepts are expected to drive stock price upward, suggesting investors should pay close attention [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its brand incubation business, which is expected to lead to operational leverage release and accelerate performance growth starting in 2026 [1] Financial Projections - The company maintains a "buy" rating, forecasting revenues of 1.54 billion, 2.47 billion, and 2.96 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 34%, 60%, and 20% respectively [2] - Projected net profits for the same period are 133 million, 247 million, and 302 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 47%, 86%, and 22% respectively [2] - The target price for the company is set at 93.42 yuan, based on a 35x PE ratio for 2026 [2] Brand Incubation Business - The brand incubation and management business focuses on the health sector, primarily consisting of the brands Camanodo and Icarli, with plans to acquire the Norwegian health food brand Noromega by 2026 [3] - Camanodo's revenue grew over 70% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, while Icarli's revenue increased over 95%, contributing to a total revenue of 233 million yuan for this segment, with a high gross margin of 79.6% [3] - Revenue projections for the brand incubation segment are 600 million, 1.46 billion, and 1.88 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 96%, 143%, and 29% respectively [3] E-commerce Operations - The e-commerce operation business is experiencing steady growth, with the apparel category being the largest segment, including brands like Skechers, ECCO, Samsonite, and Under Armour [3] - The company has started collaborations with leading brands in the trendy toy and plush toy sectors, such as Pop Mart and Jellycat, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth due to the rise in emotional consumption [3]