美妆代运营正在挣扎"上岸" 开年以来，丽人丽妆、凯淳股份、壹网壹创、若羽臣、青木科技五大美妆代运营商先后发布了2025年业绩预告。 与前三季度集体承压、财报惨淡，仅有寥寥两家维持增长的景象不同，年末却意外迎来业绩回暖信号，多家企业预告业绩改善。 但这份"暖意"并未普照整个行业，曾经依附美妆品牌成长、赚足流量红利的代运营商，如今正经历前所未有的生存考验，"日子不好过"已成为行业普遍现 象。 只是，有人"浮沉"，也有人开始有人陆续"上岸"了。 01 整体有所增长 但仍难言乐观 过去一年，美妆代运营行业被冠以"集体寒冬"的标签。 从第一季度到第三季度，多数企业的财报都难言乐观，仅有若羽臣、青木股份等少数公司保持增长态势。然而，到了年底的年终业绩预告，行业似乎出现 了一丝回暖的迹象。 | 公司名称 | 预计归母净利润 | 预计同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 若羽臣 | 1.76亿元 - 2.00亿元 | +67% 至 +89% | | 青木科技 | 1.18亿元 - 1.36亿元 | +30% 至 +50% | | 壹网壹创 | 9203万元 - 1.196亿元 | +21.10% 至 +57. ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment rating for the home cleaning and health supplement sectors, highlighting strong growth potential in proprietary brands and market expansion opportunities [4][9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of proprietary brands in home cleaning and health supplements, with a focus on expanding brand matrices and capturing market share [4][9]. - The home cleaning market in China exceeds 150 billion yuan, with fabric care being the largest category, driven by rising quality demands and emotional consumption trends [16][21]. - The dietary supplement market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing health awareness, an aging population, and the penetration of Generation Z consumers [34][35]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has transitioned from an operational agency to a leading player in high-end home cleaning and health supplement proprietary brands, with a focus on brand management and operational efficiency [4][5]. Business Structure - The business model consists of three main segments: operational agency, brand management, and proprietary brands, with a notable increase in the share of proprietary brands [7][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue from proprietary brands reached 5.01 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 28.37% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 66.92% [8][10]. - The company has seen significant revenue growth in its proprietary brands, with notable increases in sales for brands like VitaOcean and NUIBAY [11][12]. Industry Trends - The home cleaning industry is experiencing a shift towards premiumization, with consumers willing to pay a premium for quality and fragrance [21][30]. - The dietary supplement market is rapidly evolving, with a focus on beauty-related supplements and innovative functional ingredients gaining traction [34][38]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing online penetration of sales channels, particularly through content-driven e-commerce platforms like Douyin [24][26]. - The competitive landscape shows stable market shares among leading brands, with opportunities for new entrants in high-end segments [28][32].

Core Viewpoint - The beauty industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands, with Douyin's beauty GMV projected to grow over 20% year-on-year in January 2026, reflecting a marginal improvement during the off-season due to brand efforts in daily sales and self-broadcasting, alongside the impact of the Spring Festival timing [1][2]. Group 1: Strong Product and Brand Momentum - Companies with strong product and brand momentum are expected to achieve high growth through new product launches and category expansions, such as Ruoyuchen, which is focusing on high-end household cleaning and health products [3]. - Beijiaojie is maintaining stable performance in oral care and is expected to benefit from the trend of AKK ingredients in its probiotic raw material business [3]. - Maogeping is positioned as a high-end brand with ongoing expansion in offline counters and online sales, anticipating rapid growth across multiple product lines [3]. - Linqingxuan is benefiting from the trend of oil-based skincare, with its flagship essence oil performing well and new products showing promise [3]. - Shangmei Co. is expanding its main brand Han Shu and sub-brands, with strong growth expected from key products [3]. Group 2: Leading Brands with Strong Asset Value - Beitanie has been actively adjusting its channel and inventory mechanisms since 2025, leading to product structure upgrades and profit recovery, with strong GMV growth in January 2026 [4]. - Proya is expected to have a clear new product strategy in 2026, launching several key products and expanding its sub-brands to drive steady growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong fundamentals and high growth potential recommended for increased holdings include Ruoyuchen, Beijiaojie, Maogeping, Linqingxuan, and Shangmei Co. [5]. - Companies showing signs of bottom improvement include Beitanie, Proya, Dengkang Oral, Shanghai Jahwa, and Runben Co. [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the cosmetics industry in China, specifically analyzing the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of various brands in January 2026 through data from the Douyin platform. Key Companies and Their Performance 1. 上美股份 (Shangmei Group) - Total GMV for 韩束 (Hansu) and its sub-brands in January was approximately 6.6 billion CNY, representing a 9% increase year-over-year [1] - 韩束 brand GMV was about 5.3 billion CNY, showing a decline of 3% [1] - NewPage brand GMV reached approximately 0.7 billion CNY, marking a significant increase of 120% [1] - 极方 (Jifang) achieved a GMV of 0.1 billion CNY, with rapid growth year-over-year [1] - 聚光白 (Juguangbai) also recorded a GMV of 0.1 billion CNY, indicating high growth [1] - 安敏优 (Anminyou) had a GMV of 0.3 billion CNY, with a remarkable year-over-year growth of 267% [1] 2. 珀莱雅 (Proya) - The three major brands under Proya had a combined GMV of 3.5 billion CNY in January, reflecting a 2% increase [1] - The main brand, 珀莱雅, generated a GMV of approximately 2.8 billion CNY, down by 2% [1] - 彩棠 (Caitang) brand GMV was 0.3 billion CNY, showing a decline of 12% [1] - OR洗护 (OR Hair Care) brand GMV reached 0.3 billion CNY, with a substantial increase of 148% [1] 3. 若羽臣 (Ruoyuchen) - The combined GMV for the brands 绽家 (Zhanjia), 斐萃 (Feicui), and Nuibay was 1.7 billion CNY [2] - 绽家 brand GMV was 0.7 billion CNY, increasing by 88% [2] - 斐萃 brand GMV was 0.8 billion CNY, showing a remarkable growth of 345% [2] 4. 丸美股份 (Marubi) - The total GMV for its two main brands was 2.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 1% increase [2] - 主品牌丸美 (Marubi) had a GMV of approximately 1.8 billion CNY, up by 5% [2] - 恋火 (Lianhuo) brand GMV was 0.8 billion CNY, down by 7% [2] 5. 毛戈平 (Mao Geping) - The brand achieved a GMV of approximately 2.9 billion CNY, with an increase of 78% [2] 6. 林清轩 (Lin Qingxuan) - The brand's GMV was 2.6 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 145% [2] 7. 薇诺娜 (Winona) - The brand recorded a GMV of 1.0 billion CNY, with a growth of 156% [2] 8. 润本 (Runben) - The brand's GMV was approximately 0.4 billion CNY, showing a slight decline of 1% [2] 9. 福瑞达 (Furuida) - The two major brands under Furuida had a combined GMV of about 0.8 billion CNY, increasing by 12% [2] 10. 水羊股份 (Shuiyang) - The four major brands achieved a GMV of approximately 0.7 billion CNY, doubling year-over-year [2] 11. 上海家化 (Shanghai Jahwa) - The three skincare brands under Shanghai Jahwa had a combined GMV of about 0.9 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 252% [2] 12. 植物医生 (Plant Doctor) - The brand's GMV in December was 0.1 billion CNY, showing a decline of 5% [2] 13. 拉芳 (Lafang) - The brand achieved a GMV of approximately 0.1 billion CNY, with an increase of 135% [2] Additional Insights - The data indicates a mixed performance across various brands, with some experiencing significant growth while others faced declines. - The overall trend suggests a competitive landscape in the cosmetics industry, with emerging brands showing strong growth potential, particularly in the Douyin channel. This analysis highlights the dynamic nature of the cosmetics market in China, emphasizing the importance of monitoring GMV trends for investment opportunities and risk assessment.

国海证券研报指出，若羽臣代运营向品牌商转型初见成效，业绩近年来持续高增。公司近期发布2025年 业绩预增公告，预计2025年归母净利润为1.76-2.00亿元，同比增加66.61%-89.33%，自有品牌及品牌管 理双轮发力驱动公司业绩持续高增。公司传统主业代运营业务稳健增长，凭借多年代运营经验逐步从代 运营公司转型为品牌商。目前初见成效，旗下绽家、斐萃、纽益倍等品牌围绕家清及保健品行业快速进 行市场推广及产品扩张，目前品牌势能较强，未来随着品牌影响力的持续扩大有望保持快速增长态势。 首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 to 200 million RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.6% to 89.3% [1]. - The company's self-owned brand business continues to show strong growth in Q4, with significant performance from various product lines and collaborations [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the high-end home cleaning and oral beauty sectors, driven by strong brand management capabilities [1]. Summary by Sections Self-Owned Brand Business - The self-owned brand business has shown high growth, with the brand "Zhanjia" expanding its product categories and collaborations with new IPs, achieving a GMV of 350 million RMB across three platforms, a year-on-year increase of 107% [2]. - The brand "Feicui" has launched advanced anti-aging products, contributing to a significant increase in average transaction value [3]. Market Potential - The global AKK bacteria market is projected to reach approximately 325 million USD in 2024, with significant growth expected in the Chinese market [4]. - The company has recently become the exclusive agent for the oral beauty brand "Meisidike" in China, further expanding its brand matrix [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for the self-owned brand business to 108 million, 262 million, and 403 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook [5]. - The target market capitalization is set at 17.617 billion RMB, with a target price of 56.64 RMB per share, based on a PE ratio of 38 for the self-owned brand business [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics and medical beauty industry as "Overweight" for 2025, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The demand side of the cosmetics and medical beauty sector is expected to accelerate, with retail sales of cosmetics projected to reach 465.3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, surpassing the overall retail growth by 1.4 percentage points [3]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed beauty companies is strong, with significant growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) through platforms like Douyin, particularly during promotional events like Double Eleven [3]. - The A-share market shows a mixed performance, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Shanghai Jahwa experiencing substantial improvements in their earnings [3]. - The e-commerce operation sector is rebounding, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Yiwang Yichuang expected to see profit growth exceeding 50% in 2025 [3]. - The medical beauty segment is anticipated to face slight fatigue due to macroeconomic factors, but new product launches are expected to stimulate consumer interest in 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics Sector - Retail sales of cosmetics are projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, with Q4 growth reaching 9.9% [3]. - Key companies such as Shiseido and Lin Qingxuan are expected to see significant GMV growth, with Lin Qingxuan projected to achieve triple-digit growth [3]. - Investment recommendations include companies with strong channel and brand matrices like Maogeping, Shiseido, and Lin Qingxuan, as well as those with improving earnings like Porlaia and Marubi [3]. Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is expected to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions, with companies like Aimeike facing challenges [3]. - Recommendations focus on companies with strong R&D capabilities and broad product pipelines, such as Aimeike and Langzi [3]. E-commerce and Operations - The e-commerce operation sector is recovering, with companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology expected to see significant profit growth [3]. - The report highlights the importance of self-operated brands and the potential for high growth in this segment [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms including Porlaia, Maogeping, and Shiseido, with projected PE ratios reflecting growth expectations [5].

Macro Economic Group - The US manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 48.2%, below the expected 49% and the previous month's 48.7%, indicating a "strong supply and weak demand" scenario [4] - The output index for November is at 51.4%, a recovery of 3.2 percentage points from October, returning to the expansion zone [4] - New orders index for November is at 47.4%, down 2 percentage points from the previous month, while new export orders are at 46.2%, indicating contraction [4] - The employment index is at 44%, down 2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a decline in employment [4] - The price index is at 58.5%, showing upward pressure on prices despite a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - Doubao launched the Doubao Mobile Assistant, demonstrating AI Agent applications with Nubia smartphones, which significantly ease users' daily tasks [7] - The collaboration smartphone priced at 3499 yuan quickly sold out, indicating strong market interest despite some performance issues in complex tasks [7] - The emergence of this application model alleviates investor concerns about an AI investment bubble, suggesting a positive outlook for the AI sector [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Research indicates that the revenue models and demand trends for independent energy storage stations vary across eight provinces, with investment returns generally exceeding 8%, and some reaching 10%-15% [10] - The investment logic in the energy storage sector is shifting from relying on subsidies to identifying system bottlenecks [10] - The high prosperity of the energy storage industry is expected to first manifest in rapid installation growth, followed by intense competition in the equipment sector [10] Consumer Group - Macau's GGR recovery rate for November reached 92.2%, the highest in 2023, indicating strong high-end demand and reinforcing growth logic in the sector [12] - The performance of the luxury goods sector is expected to improve, supported by positive trends in international tourism and high hotel occupancy rates [12] - The e-commerce sector saw a significant increase, with Ruoyuchen's self-owned brand sales surging 35 times year-on-year, validating the success of its brand incubation strategy [13]

Core Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities highlights the transition in the beauty industry from "functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating increased consumer resilience [1] - The beauty sector is diversifying its sales channels, moving away from reliance on a single traffic window, which is enhancing channel efficiency [1] - Leading brands are demonstrating stronger resilience, with a focus on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - During the Double 11 shopping festival (October 7 - November 11), total e-commerce sales reached 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [1] - The top five categories in e-commerce sales were home appliances, mobile digital products, clothing, beauty and personal care, and shoes/bags, with respective market shares of 16.5%, 14.6%, 14%, 8.2%, and 6.5% [1] - Beauty subcategories saw significant sales, with skincare products generating 991 billion yuan (+11.65%), hair care and cleaning products at 444 billion yuan (+13.54%), and perfumes and cosmetics at 334 billion yuan (+13.52%) [1] - Instant retail sales reached 670 billion yuan, showcasing a remarkable growth of 138.4% [1] Group 2: Brand Performance - Tmall's beauty rankings show Proya leading for three consecutive years, followed by Estee Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, indicating a stable top five [2] - Douyin's beauty rankings are led by Han Shu, with Proya, L'Oréal, Helena Rubinstein, and Gu Yu following, highlighting Douyin as a key platform for domestic beauty brands seeking growth [2] - The sales of composite efficacy skincare products accounted for 47.1% of the top 50 best-selling skincare items on Tmall, with anti-aging products being the most popular [2] - Brands like Han Shu and New Page reported significant sales growth across multiple channels, with New Page achieving a 145% increase in total sales [3] - The overall performance of leading brands like Proya and Weinuo demonstrated strong growth, reinforcing the notion of enhanced brand momentum in a stable market environment [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector is transitioning from "single functional consumption" to "composite efficacy + emotional consumption," indicating enhanced consumer resilience [4] - The beauty industry is no longer reliant on a single traffic window, with narratives around channel efficiency strengthening [4] - Leading brands exhibit stronger resilience, with a positive outlook on companies with robust brand assets that can capitalize on channel and product cycles [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Double 11 shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 16,950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [8] - Beauty and personal care sales reached 991 billion yuan, growing by 11.65% [8] - Instant retail sales surged to 670 billion yuan, marking a remarkable growth of 138.4% [8] Market Dynamics - Tmall leads in high-end beauty sales, while Douyin is becoming a significant platform for domestic brands [8] - The top five beauty brands on Tmall include Proya, Estée Lauder, Lancôme, L'Oréal, and SkinCeuticals, with Proya maintaining the top position for three consecutive years [8] - Douyin's beauty sales rankings show Han Shu at the top, followed by Proya and L'Oréal [8] Company Performance - Leading brands like Up Beauty, Ruo Yu Chen, and Mao Ge Ping have shown impressive performance during the Double 11 event [8] - Up Beauty's sales increased by 145% year-on-year, with significant growth on both Tmall and Douyin [8] - Ruo Yu Chen's sales saw a staggering 35-fold increase year-on-year, with Douyin sales growing by over 100% [8]