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泡泡玛特等:新消费崛起,投资逻辑转向“新”因素
He Xun Wang· 2025-07-09 14:22
【新消费赛道崛起,投资逻辑切换引关注】当泡泡玛特凭爆款IP在港股创造"十倍神话",A股投资者急 切寻觅能复制奇迹的消费公司,不再局限于传统"白马股",而是聚焦新消费颠覆者。 今年新消费赛道 强势崛起,港股泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪集团股价亮眼,获"消费三姐妹"称号。A股新消费概念估值 弹性诱人,去年9月24日至今年5月30日,一致魔芋等一批消费股至少翻倍,如一致魔芋涨逾5倍。 若羽 臣成消费"黑马股",股价从2024年9月的11元/股涨至5月30日约65元/股,涨幅近5倍。业绩上,2024年归 母净利润同比增约95%,2025年一季度同比增约114%,自有品牌"绽家""斐萃"崛起。 2025年"618",太 湖雪再进李佳琦直播间,2024年"双十一"实施"全明星计划",2025年一季度扣非净利润同比增47.45%。 会稽山"爽酒"5月25日直播12小时销售额破1000万元,26 - 28日股票连续涨停,市值破120亿。 消费赛道 热度回归,投资逻辑改变。中金基金高大亮称,如今投资要重视"变"的因素,新消费领域2025年有望占 优。近年服务型消费占比提高,四大类新消费崛起。 新消费崛起使大众消费习惯改变,从"品牌 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0617|金工、美护
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-06-16 14:53
每周一景: 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单,收听朗读版 【金工】短期利空因素影响有限 从4月中旬至今A股处于反弹的趋势中,而6-13在地缘的利空因素影响下出现单日放量下跌,万得微盘股指 数和北证50下跌幅度较大。 尽管市场短期回落但本轮反弹过程中,场内融资余额并未发生显著上涨,风险 指数显示当前A股主要指数所隐含的风险并未处于高位,我们认为短期利空因素所引发的调整幅度有限。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券6月16日已经发布的研究报告 : 短期利空因素影响有限 具体分析内容(包括风险提示等) 请详见完 整版 报告。 【美护】新消费时代——化妆品行业跟踪报告 看好美护板块引领新消费,零食品类裂变与新渠道共振。 新消费核心在产品焕新营造情绪价值消费。 我们认为,与2016-2021的流量红利驱动下的新消费浪潮不 同,本轮新消费更多体现在渠道红利消失后结构性的产品焕新,典型如美妆领域重组胶原成分持续迭代, 日化领域功能及情绪价值升级(如绽家香氛洗衣液,冷酸灵医研牙膏修复牙釉质),零食魔芋品类健康低 卡大受欢迎。我们认为,随中国经济增长、居民物质需求日益满足,情绪消费开始爆发,满足更细分、更 进阶需求的特色产 ...
第一创业晨会纪要-20250611
First Capital Securities· 2025-06-11 05:19
证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 6 月 11 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_:Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组: 分析师:郭强 6 月 10 日国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁主持召开科技型民营企业座谈会,围绕科学编 制"十五五"规划,聚焦科技创新领域听取意见建议。该次座谈会的召开说明"十 五五"规划的编制工作已经开始启动。历次五年规划中的很多新领域、新方向和投 资重点都会成为资本市场关注的热点,因此后续编制会议中提到的新领域、新方向 和投资重点都将值得重点关注。 马斯克周二在 X 平台上回应使用 Model Y 做"Robotaxi"的视频时表示,这些都是 直接从工厂出来的未经改装的特斯拉汽车,这些车辆使用了一个新版本的软件,我 们有一个更先进的模型,有大约 4 倍的参数,但仍需要大量的打磨。可能几个月后 就可以部署了。在 2 到 3 年内,自动驾驶汽车将在世界各地变得非常普遍。特斯拉 的 Al/Autopilot 可能已经可以在赛道上击败最好的人类了"。马斯克表示 Robotaxi 公开试运营预计将于 6 月 22 日开始。从视频看,无人驾驶技术正在快速进步,产业 进步和发展的方向 ...
疯涨155%后踩刹车!若羽臣突遭股东减持,股价一度崩超6%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-06-09 03:22
Core Viewpoint - The announcement of shareholder Langzi Co., Ltd. planning to reduce its stake in Ruoyuchen has caused significant market reaction, leading to a drop in the company's stock price by over 6% at the opening, which later narrowed to a 1.48% decline [1][3]. Shareholder Reduction - Langzi Co., Ltd. intends to reduce its holdings by up to 4,768,071 shares, representing 3% of Ruoyuchen's total share capital, due to its own financial planning [3][8]. - Langzi Co., Ltd. has previously reduced its stake in Ruoyuchen multiple times, decreasing its ownership from an initial 15 million shares (12.33% of total shares) to the current 11,602,720 shares (7.30%) [6][7]. Stock Performance - Ruoyuchen's stock has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of over 155%, and a cumulative rise of nearly 24% over three trading days in late May and early June [9]. - The company experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a warning issued due to a cumulative price deviation exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days [11]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Ruoyuchen reported a revenue of 1.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.25%, and a net profit of 54.29 million yuan, reflecting a substantial growth of 60.93% [11]. - Projections for 2024 indicate a revenue increase to 1.766 billion yuan, a significant growth of 29.26%, with a net profit of 106 million yuan, soaring by 94.58% [11]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 574 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 54.16%, and a net profit of 27.42 million yuan, which is a remarkable growth of 113.88% [11]. Business Strategy - The company's growth is attributed to the optimization of its self-owned brand business, brand management, and operational services, with an increasing penetration rate of its self-owned brands [12]. - Ruoyuchen's experience in online multi-channel operations is expected to further enhance the momentum of its self-owned brands, sustaining high growth in performance [12].
从“小弟”干到“一哥”,股价已翻4倍 专访若羽臣董事长王玉:股价大涨后“我”睡不着了
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-27 09:19
Core Insights - Ruoyuchen has transformed from an unnoticed player to a leading company in the e-commerce operation industry, with a significant increase in revenue and profit [1][6] - The company reported a 30% revenue growth and a 95% increase in net profit for 2024, making it the most profitable e-commerce operation listed company [1][4] - The stock price of Ruoyuchen has surged over 400% in the past year, reflecting strong market confidence [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Ruoyuchen's revenue reached 1.77 billion yuan, with a net profit of 100 million yuan [4][6] - The company's self-owned brand revenue grew by 90%, with a gross margin of 67%, significantly higher than the 39% gross margin from its operation business [6][11] - For Q1 2025, net profit increased by 114% year-on-year, indicating continued strong performance [1] Business Strategy - The company has shifted focus from e-commerce operation, which now accounts for about 40% of its business, to developing its own brands in health, beauty, and household cleaning [3][11] - Ruoyuchen aims to become an excellent brand management company, with plans to increase the share of self-owned brands in total revenue [3][11] - The founder, Wang Yu, emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer needs and developing products accordingly, which has been a key factor in the success of their self-owned brand, Zhanjia [9][10] Market Context - The e-commerce operation market in China reached 1.5 trillion yuan in 2021, with a growth rate of 9.9%, down from previous years, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7] - The rise of short video and live-streaming e-commerce has created new challenges for traditional e-commerce operations [7][8] - Ruoyuchen's strategy to focus on self-owned brands is seen as a response to the declining profitability in the traditional operation model [8][11] Future Outlook - Wang Yu expresses concerns about sustaining high growth rates amid increasing market expectations and competition from established brands in the household cleaning sector [14][15] - The company plans to continue investing in self-owned brands while managing operational costs effectively [15][16] - Ruoyuchen aims to maintain its growth trajectory and become a leading brand management company in the long term [15][16]
若羽臣(003010):斐萃推红宝石油新品 看好新品牌跑通确定性机会
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 00:37
保健品:斐萃上新红宝石油新品,新品牌成功确定性强斐萃基于独家原料红宝石油推新小红瓶:红宝石 油为女性专研高阶鱼油,成分包含虾青素、SDA、普利醇、EPA、DHA 等,独有蜡酯结构使得吸收率 达普通鱼油2 倍,核心功效包含提代谢(减脂增肌)、抗氧力(亮白肌肤)、抗炎等。 展望空间:绽家定位于家清领域消费升级,以"高端香氛"切口切入,提供高感知价值契合消费升级趋 势,其兼具替代刚需+拓展体验双重潜力。 投资建议:绽家斐萃差异化定位高端香氛家清/口服美容,挖掘新消费场景,双渠道、多爆品驱动增长 确定性延续,独家原料红宝石油有望成为重要增量驱动,同时基于前述逻辑我们认为红宝石油新品牌打 造确定性很高;对于绽家和斐萃的精准定位,凸显了公司的前瞻眼光与清晰成长路径,未来有望聚焦核 心女性人群,深挖细分需求场景,打造"小而美"特色细分品牌矩阵,展望绽家持续场景破圈&大健康品 牌矩阵持续兑现放量。我们认为若羽臣基于人群资产和管理者前瞻眼光具备长期成长性,值得被溢价。 风险提示:行业竞争加剧;营销投放费用管控不达预期;新品牌孵化风险;新品类培育团队不达要求 等。 新品牌具备高确定性:后续预计将以红宝石油为核心成分推出新品牌,斐 ...
若羽臣(003010) - 2025年5月13日投资者关系活动记录表
2025-05-13 09:50
证券代码:003010 证券简称:若羽臣 投资者关系活动记录表 | 编号:2025-002 | | --- | | | ☐特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | ☐媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活动类别 | ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 | | | ☐现场参观 | | | ☐其他(请文字说明其他活动内容) | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名 | 线上参与公司2024年度业绩说明会的投资者 | | 时间 | 2025年5月13日 15:00-16:30 | | 地点 | 价值在线(https://www.ir-online.cn/)网络互动 | | | 董事长、总经理 王玉 | | 上市公司接待人员姓名 | 董事、副总经理、董事会秘书、财务总监 罗志青 | | | 独立董事 张春艳 | | | 1.贵司斐萃的毛利率是多少 | | | 答:感谢您对公司业务的关注,该业务的毛利率受多种因素综 | | 投资者关系活动 | 合影响,且处于动态变化之中。公司一直致力于优化成本与提升营 | | 主要内容介绍 | 收,努力保持业务的盈利能力和可持续发展,具体数据可持续关注 | | | 公司后续 ...
若羽臣(003010):自有品牌高增 利润率优化
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:48
Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue reaching 1.77 billion and net profit at 106 million, representing year-on-year growth of 29% and 95% respectively [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 610 million and net profit of 48 million, showing year-on-year growth of 14% and 133% respectively [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 570 million and net profit of 27 million, with year-on-year growth of 54% and 114% respectively [1] Revenue Structure Optimization - The company's revenue from brand management, proprietary brands, and agency operations for 2024 was 500 million, 500 million, and 760 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 212%, 90%, and a decline of 19% [2] - The proprietary brand "Zhanjia" generated revenue of 484 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 90% [2] - The increase in proprietary brand contribution is expected to continue driving revenue growth in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin improved by 4.3 percentage points to 44.6% in 2024, while net margin increased by 2 percentage points to 6% due to the higher proportion of proprietary brands [2] - In Q1 2025, gross margin surged by 29.3 percentage points to 53.9%, with net margin increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 4.8% [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 170 million, 250 million, and 350 million for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 48x, 33x, and 24x respectively [3] - The investment recommendation remains a "buy" due to the strong growth potential of proprietary brands and improving profitability [3]
若羽臣(003010):绽家快速放量 保健品斐萃打造第二成长曲线
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:48
品牌管理业务全链路赋能能力凸显,代运营聚焦精细化服务。1)品牌管理:24 年营收5.01 亿元,同比 +212.24%,占比提升至28.38%。公司深化与拜耳、强生等合作,赋能全链路增长,新引入DHC、Herbs of Gold等新品牌,聚焦保健品与个护领域。2)代运营:24 年营收7.64 亿元,同比-18.95%,毛利率约 +5pct,合作客户健康度持续提升。 盈利预测与投资评级:若羽臣作为国内头部数字化品牌管理公司,及时挖潜把握机遇布局家清、保健品 行业,绽家、斐萃从0 到1 破茧成蝶验证品牌孵化力,新兴业务双轮驱动,长期发展前景明朗。原有代 运营及品牌管理业务持续深耕,加强品牌方合作。考虑到自有品牌成长超预期,我们将公司2025-2026 年归母净利润预测由1.4/1.9 亿元上调至1.9/2.8亿元,新增2027 年归母净利润预测4.0 亿元,同比 +80%/+48%/+40%,对应PE 分别为43/29/21X,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示:品牌商解约或产品质量不佳、自有品牌销售不及预期、行业竞争加剧等。 公司披露2024 年年报及2025Q1 业绩:2024 年公司实现营收17.66 亿元(+2 ...
若羽臣(003010):绽家持续绽放 斐萃接力增长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:48
投资要点: 公司发布24 年及25Q1 财报,业绩符合预期。1)24 年营收17.7 亿元,同比增长29.3%;归母净利润1.1 亿元,同比增长94.6%;扣非归母净利润1.1 亿,同比增长97.5%。2)25 年Q1 营收5.7 亿元,同比增长 54.2%,归母净利润0.3 亿元,同比增长113.9%,扣非归母净利润0.3 亿,同比增长107.6%。3)A 股每 10 股拟派发5 元现金股利(含税),以资本公积金向全体股东每10 股转增4 股。 自有品牌带高毛利率,现金流改善增强公司经营韧性。1)盈利能力:24 年毛利率44.6%,同比增长 4.3pct,归母净利率6.0%,同比增长2.0pct;2)费用率:销售费用率29.8%,同比上升2.0pct,主要为业 务增长导致市场推广费用的增加所致;管理费用率5.6%,同比下降1.3pct;研发费用率1.5%,同比下降 0.3pct。3)运营能力:24 年末应收账款2.0亿元,同比增长17.6%;经营活动现金流净额3.3 亿元,同比 大幅改善,主要为库存周转优化,库存备货减少及部分供应商给予一定账期所致。 自有品牌成为最大亮点,绽家持续绽放,斐萃接力增长。24 ...