证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 27 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析 今日概览 重磅研报 【固定收益】央地财政关系的历史、现状和前景分析——20250826 研究视点 【有色金属】锑：7 月供应大幅下滑，锑品出口收紧或接近尾声—— 20250826 【计算机】寒武纪-U（688256.SH）-时代的主角，利润率大超预期—— 20250827 【计算机】中科创达（300496.SZ）-AI 端侧成为重要成长动力，智能软 件与汽车业务提供稳健基本盘——20250827 【环保】聚光科技（300203.SZ）-业绩短期承压，高端科学仪器发力在 即——20250827 【食品饮料】今世缘（603369.SH）-充分释压，行稳致远——20250827 【建材】赛特新材（688398.SH）-国内市场价格和盈利阶段性承压，新 国标或带来显著订单增量——20250827 【食品饮料】农夫山泉（09633.HK）-龙头强势恢复，业绩表现亮眼—— 20250827 【环保】华宏科技（002645.SZ）-利润大幅增长，稀土价格回升&新增 产能提升盈利弹性——202 ...

（原标题："反内卷"别只跟价格较劲 | 经观社论） 近日，西安市交通管理部门以全面停止低价营销为名叫停了网约车的"一口价""特惠价"；在全国范围 内，多个行业协会在相关反内卷倡议书或者自律公约中，都提及了抵制低价竞争、抵制恶意压价以及低 于成本的倾销行为，有的还形成了所谓的"最低价"机制。 与此相关的是，部分行业在"反内卷"的过程中开始涨价。价格上涨的推手既有政府部门，也有行业协会 和头部企业组成的部分自律组织。市场显然乐见其成，一些论者更将这种现象作为"反内卷"见效的佐 证。 从行业利益和执行难易程度出发，"反低价竞争"容易成为各行各业在整治"反内卷"时的优先选项。政府 部门或者协会等组织出手，也可能会有立竿见影的效果。不过我们认为，对此仍需理性辨析。 更何况，目前中国经济面临着需求不足的问题，这是价格战持续的重要背景。在这个背景下，任何行业 的非市场化涨价行为恐怕都难以维系。以光伏行业为例，如果多晶硅（光伏上游材料）要涨价，光伏组 件企业就要为涨价买单；如果光伏组件企业要涨价，下游发电集团和分布式光伏用户就要买单。问题 是，在电力市场化改革持续推进，光伏并网价格不断走低的今天，电力市场是否有能力为光伏产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jihong Co., Ltd., announced plans to provide guarantees for its subsidiaries' procurement contracts, increasing the total guarantee amount to RMB 6.5 billion by 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Guarantee Plans - The company will hold board meetings on April 1 and April 25, 2025, to approve a guarantee amount of up to RMB 4 billion for its subsidiaries [1]. - An additional guarantee amount of RMB 2.5 billion will be added, bringing the total guarantee amount to RMB 6.5 billion [1][2]. - The guarantees will be provided based on supplier requirements and will cover various subsidiaries involved in supply chain management and printing [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Overview - As of the announcement date, the company and its subsidiaries have a total guarantee balance of approximately RMB 2.36 billion, which accounts for 10.67% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [2]. - For the fiscal year 2024, the company's revenue composition is as follows: e-commerce accounts for 60.87%, printing and packaging for 37.97%, and other business revenues for 1.16% [2]. - The company's market capitalization is reported to be RMB 7.7 billion [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Xinhua Jin (SH 600735) held its 14th first board meeting on August 19, 2025, to discuss the appointment of the company's president and other related documents [2] - In the fiscal year 2024, Xinhua Jin's revenue composition is as follows: hair products account for 54.75%, e-commerce for 22.77%, textiles for 11.89%, used cars for 8.17%, and others for 1.54% [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [11]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, which was below market expectations. The total retail sales reached 3.9 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percentage points [5]. - Online retail sales and penetration rates have significantly increased due to enhanced subsidies from instant retail platforms. The online retail sales for the first seven months of 2025 grew by 9.2% year-on-year, surpassing the overall retail growth rate [5]. - The report highlights a divergence in domestic consumption performance, with sectors like instant retail benefiting significantly, while the restaurant sector continues to face pressure [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - July 2025 saw a 3.7% year-on-year increase in retail sales, lower than the expected 4.9%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 4.3% [5]. - The retail sales of goods in July reached 3.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [5]. Online and Offline Retail Trends - Online retail sales in July amounted to 959.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% and a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [5]. - The online penetration rate reached 24.8%, up from 23.7% in the previous year [5]. Consumer Goods and Services - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of daily consumer goods, with categories like communication and food seeing growth rates of 14.9% and 8.6% respectively [5]. - The restaurant sector's growth remains low, with July's revenue at 450.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of only 1.1% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce and instant retail sectors, highlighting companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan as key players [5]. - It also suggests investing in quality gold and jewelry brands, as well as companies in the travel industry that are expected to benefit from the summer tourism season [5].

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Nanji E-commerce is 3.56 yuan, an increase of 0.03 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 3.51-3.57 yuan and a total transaction volume of 1.38 billion yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.97% [1] - The company's current total market capitalization is 8.739 billion yuan, and the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is negative [1] - As of August 8, the total number of shareholders is 97,537 [1] Group 2 - The company operates in brand licensing, e-commerce services, and supply chain management, representing a light asset operation model [1] - Nanji E-commerce conducts licensing business through its brand matrix, primarily covering consumer categories such as homewear and underwear [1] Group 3 - On the observation of capital flow, there was a net inflow of 3.6955 million yuan from main funds on that day, but over the past five trading days, there has been an overall net outflow of 57.0244 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Macro and Financial Data Insights - In July, the growth of M1 and M2 exceeded market expectations, with M2 expanding by 8.8% year-on-year and M1 growing by 5.6%, up from 8.3% and 4.6% in June respectively [2][3] - New social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the Bloomberg consensus of 1.63 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating a shift in financing structure and seasonal factors [2][3] - The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 9.0% year-on-year, an increase from 8.9% in June, with seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth rising from 8.4% to 9.6% [2][3] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The July social financing increment of 1.16 trillion yuan was below the expected 1.41 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan [5] - The government bonds were the main support for social financing in July, while M1 growth showed a marginal recovery [5] - A new consumption loan subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the growth of consumer loans, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent's Q2 revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year, exceeding consensus expectations, with significant growth in value-added services, advertising, and fintech revenues [11] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming launch of several major shooting games, which could drive both player engagement and monetization [11] - Huatai Securities initiated coverage on Yuntianhua with a "buy" rating, citing its leading position in the phosphate industry and expected steady demand growth for fertilizers [15] Group 4: Technology and Robotics - The introduction of teaching-free robots is transforming the welding industry, addressing labor shortages and improving efficiency through advanced visual systems and welding software [7] - These robots are expected to penetrate more complex applications, such as shipbuilding, as technology continues to evolve [7] Group 5: Consumer and E-commerce Trends - SEA's Q2 revenue reached $5.26 billion, a 38.2% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and digital financial services [29] - The company anticipates continued growth in its e-commerce GMV, projecting a 25% year-on-year increase for Q3 [29] - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue was 8.44 billion yuan, up 17.9% year-on-year, benefiting from rapid growth in super memberships and strong performance in non-subscription services [27]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid growth of e-commerce in China's agricultural sector, with a 17.2% increase in transaction volume in the first half of the year, driven by the rise of digital tools like live streaming for product sales [1] E-commerce Growth - E-commerce transactions for agricultural products in China have seen a significant increase of 17.2% in the first half of the year [1] - Live streaming has emerged as a crucial digital tool for promoting agricultural products, enhancing sales and creating job opportunities in rural areas [1][7] Case Studies - A farmer from Xinjiang sold 3 tons of peaches in one live stream, achieving a transaction value of over 30,000 yuan, with profits increasing by 30% due to direct sales through e-commerce platforms [3] - In Sichuan, a farmer utilized government support and training to successfully sell hundreds of orders during his first live stream, showcasing the potential of rural e-commerce [5] Logistics and Infrastructure - The logistics system in rural areas is still developing, with challenges in coverage, particularly in remote regions [10] - Innovative logistics solutions, such as flexible transportation strategies for small parcels, have been implemented in Xinjiang, allowing for faster delivery times [12] - Policies have been introduced to support the establishment of rural logistics services, with over 337,800 comprehensive service stations built nationwide [13] Market Dynamics - The growth of e-commerce and logistics in rural areas reflects the robust vitality and resilience of China's economy, as well as the stability of its supply chains [9] - The demand for logistics services in rural and central-western regions is increasing, presenting new growth opportunities for the industry [20] Future Initiatives - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has outlined a plan to enhance agricultural product consumption, including 23 measures to optimize supply and promote e-commerce platforms [22] - Over the next five years, the goal is to cultivate around 100 leading rural e-commerce counties and establish approximately 1,000 digital circulation enterprises [24]

Core Viewpoint - Major food delivery platforms including Meituan, JD.com, Ele.me, and Taobao Shanguo have jointly expressed their commitment to resisting disorderly competition and promoting a fair and orderly industry environment [1][3][5]. Group 1: Company Commitments - Meituan emphasizes the importance of regulating promotional activities and eliminating unfair competition, aiming to foster a mutually beneficial ecosystem within the food service industry [1]. - JD.com calls for an end to "0 yuan purchase" and similar promotional practices, advocating for a healthy industry ecosystem that supports win-win development [3]. - Ele.me and Taobao Shanguo plan to enhance the integration of physical and service consumption while promoting technological upgrades and business innovation [5]. Group 2: Specific Measures - Meituan commits to not selling goods and services at prices significantly below cost, which distorts price signals and disrupts market competition [7]. - The company will ensure transparency in subsidy activities, protecting merchants' pricing autonomy and adhering to non-discriminatory principles [7][8]. - JD.com aims to build core competitiveness through differentiated specialty dishes and improved service quality, leveraging technology and supply chain innovation [7]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The State Administration for Market Regulation previously held discussions with Meituan, JD.com, and Ele.me, urging them to comply with laws and regulations while rationally participating in competition [9]. - In May, the regulatory body had already addressed prominent issues in the food delivery industry, indicating ongoing scrutiny of competitive practices [9].

Group 1: Hainan Free Trade Port - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start customs closure operations on December 18, 2025, allowing for a special customs supervision area across the entire island [1] - The customs closure will implement a policy characterized by "one line open, one line controlled, and free flow within the island," facilitating international trade and investment [1] - After customs closure, many overseas goods imported into Hainan will enjoy zero or low tariffs, with a 30% value-added processing requirement for zero tariffs when transported to the mainland [1] Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, and Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US [3] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese cars from 25% to 15%, while maintaining existing tariffs on steel and aluminum [3] - This trade agreement is seen as a step forward in the US's negotiations with major trading partners, with potential long-term impacts on global trade dynamics [4] Group 3: Telecommunications Operators - China's three major telecom operators have committed to simplifying their service packages and enhancing transparency in consumer transactions [5] - Measures include requiring explicit customer consent for service changes and improving the process for unsubscribing from services [5] - Despite improvements, challenges remain in the ease of unsubscribing and accessing low-cost packages, indicating a need for further enhancement in customer service [6] Group 4: Wanda's Financial Asset Sale - Wanda Group plans to sell a 30% stake in Quick Money Financial for 240 million yuan, as part of its strategy to divest from non-core assets amid a challenging real estate market [7] - Quick Money Financial, which holds a third-party payment license, is expected to benefit from the growing digital currency and cross-border payment sectors [8] - The sale reflects Wanda's ongoing efforts to transition to a lighter asset model while navigating pressures in the commercial real estate sector [7] Group 5: JD's Acquisition of Hong Kong Retailer - JD.com is set to acquire Hong Kong-based supermarket chain Jia Bao for 4 billion HKD, aiming to expand its presence in the Hong Kong retail market [9] - The acquisition includes a transitional management period where Jia Bao's founders will continue to manage operations for three years [9] - This move is part of JD's strategy to enhance its supply chain capabilities and integrate online and offline retail operations [10] Group 6: Public Fund Growth - As of the end of Q2, China's public fund market reached a total scale of 33.73 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.69% [11] - Equity funds saw a total scale of 4.28 trillion yuan, while bond funds increased by 8.55% to 10.92 trillion yuan [11] - The competitive landscape among fund companies remains intense, with top firms maintaining their positions despite fluctuations in fund performance [12] Group 7: Commodity Market Trends - A rare surge in the domestic commodity market saw six major products, including glass and industrial silicon, hit their daily price limits [13] - This surge was driven by concerns over coal supply reductions, prompting a broader market reaction and price increases across various sectors [13] - Despite the initial price increases, downstream industries remain cautious, indicating a potential gap between quoted prices and actual transaction prices [14] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly up at 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% [15] - Market activity was characterized by a mix of rising and falling stocks, with significant trading volume but a lack of clear direction [15] - The recent customs closure announcement for Hainan has led to declines in related sectors, reflecting market sensitivity to policy changes [16]