Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China is more than the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively low level. Port inventory increased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [8]. - The olefin operating rate increased this week after hedging, and is expected to continue to rise next week with the restart of some devices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic port methanol market was strong this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2260 - 2320 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2260 - 2300 yuan/ton. The inland market continued to rise. Due to factors such as pre - holiday replenishment by downstream and stable olefin demand, the marketable volume of goods in the production area was tight, and the receiving price in northern Shandong increased steadily [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, and the overall inventory level remained low. Port inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to accumulate next week. The olefin operating rate increased this week and is expected to rise further next week [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main methanol futures contract in Zhengzhou fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 0.76% [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 20 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 18, there were 10,270 methanol warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 4,780 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 19, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 175.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 18, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from last week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.4 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of September 17, the market price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41]. - **Industry**: As of September 18, China's methanol production was 1,813,165 tons, a decrease of 106,100 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 79.91%, a decrease of 5.52% month - on - month. As of September 17, the total port inventory was 1.5578 million tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a decrease of 9.63% month - on - month; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a decrease of 14.66% year - on - year. As of September 18, the methanol import profit was 5.68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.55 yuan/ton from last week [44][48][51]. - **Downstream**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 84.89%, an increase of 2.23% month - on - month. As of September 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 969 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan/ton from last week [54][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season. This week, port inventories continued to accumulate significantly, and inland inventories also increased. Import volume is expected to increase significantly from August to September. In early September, the MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing is planned to restart, and the 200,000 - ton MTO of Zhongyuan Ethylene is expected to restart. Recently, there are rumors that Iranian methanol plants will undergo rotational maintenance in October. Under the situation of strong expectations and weak reality, methanol prices are oscillating slightly stronger, with a reference range of 2350 - 2450 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 28 yuan to 2408 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2245 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 5719 lots to 463,900 lots, and short positions increased by 2745 lots to 559,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 86.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 71.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 113,300 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 15,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.31% [1] - **Demand**: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 75,400 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared with the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 241,300 tons, an increase of 44,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.20%. The olefin operating rate is 87.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%; the methane chloride operating rate is 85.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 37.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; the MTBE operating rate is 62.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [1] - **Macro - news**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that he supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut at the September meeting and expects further interest rate cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - peak season, with significant inventory accumulation at ports and increased inland inventories. Expected import increase from August to September, planned restarts of MTO devices, and rumors of Iranian plant maintenance lead to a situation of strong expectations and weak reality, resulting in slightly stronger price oscillations [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to buy at the low end within the range, or pay attention to the 10 - 01 reverse spread and 15 positive spread opportunities. For cross - variety arbitrage, pay attention to going long on methanol and short on urea [1]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has been experiencing a downward trend since August, with the main contract dropping over 5% and reaching a two-month low due to weak fundamentals and high supply pressure [1][4]. Supply Analysis - Domestic methanol production remains high, with operating rates at 83%-85% and daily output at 270,000 tons. The recovery of previously shut-down facilities is expected to further increase production [1]. - Iran's methanol shipments are projected to exceed 1 million tons in August, contributing to a potential record high in monthly imports to China [1]. - High upstream production profits and capacity utilization rates indicate that the supply surplus is unlikely to change in the near term [1]. Demand Analysis - Core downstream sectors are facing significant losses, with MTO facilities in East China reporting a loss of 789 yuan per ton, which is suppressing operational and purchasing willingness [1]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are in a consumption lull, leading to low overall operating rates [1]. - There is a notable divergence in profits between upstream and downstream sectors, with high upstream profits not being effectively transmitted to the downstream due to strong resistance to high raw material prices [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 27, methanol port inventory in China reached 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons, nearing historical highs. The sellable inventory also hit a record high of 670,000 tons, putting downward pressure on spot prices [2]. - The current market shows a "two-tier" inventory situation, with high port inventories and low inland inventories. Inland methanol inventories are approximately 200,000 tons, significantly lower than the average for the same period in previous years [4]. Price Dynamics - Weak cost support from domestic coal prices and declining international natural gas prices are contributing to the downward pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The market is expected to remain bearish in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with limited potential for price rebounds until inventory levels are effectively reduced [4]. Future Outlook - The high inventory situation at ports is likely to persist, but the potential for further significant increases in inventory is low. Supply is expected to gradually decrease as autumn maintenance approaches [5]. - Two potential positive factors for the market include the upcoming "golden September and silver October" demand season and expectations of reduced methanol supply from countries like Iran due to natural gas production limits [5].