Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple positive factors are expected to keep the methanol market strong in the short term. Inland, high profits have led to high domestic methanol operation rates, but increased olefin demand and rising futures prices have boosted buying, accelerating inventory reduction. Import arrivals are expected to tighten, further reducing port inventories and supporting spot prices. The market is optimistic, with downstream buyers willing to accept high - priced goods. In ports, imports are shrinking, and inland supplies flowing to ports have slowed inventory decline. If Jiangsu MTO plants restart and the Middle - East conflict continues, the port market will remain strong. The current methanol market is leading the chemical industry, but attention should be paid to US troop withdrawal from the Middle - East and MTO profit sustainability. Once the conflict shows signs of ending, the driving logic will change. It is expected that methanol prices will be strong and volatile this week, with MA2605 trading between 2960 - 3200 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Methanol 2605: - Fundamental analysis shows a neutral view, with a short - term strong market due to multiple positives. - The basis in Jiangsu shows that the spot price is 3235 yuan/ton, with a basis of 96 for the 05 contract, indicating spot premium over futures (bullish). - As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 82.67 tons, a decrease of 5.39 tons from the previous period. The available circulating methanol in coastal areas decreased by 5.43 tons to 44.15 tons (bearish). - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average (bullish). - The main positions are net short, with long positions turning to short (bearish). - It is expected that methanol prices will be strongly volatile this week, with MA2605 trading between 2960 - 3200 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: - Some plants have stopped or reduced production, such as Inner Mongolia Heima and Shanxi Zhongxin. - Low methanol operation in Iran, with expected import contraction in February. - Low inventory in production areas, with some companies limiting sales. - Some downstream users are still stocking up before the Spring Festival [6]. - **Bearish factors**: - High domestic methanol operation rates with no supply shortage. - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream formaldehyde and other industries are shutting down for holidays, weakening raw material demand. - Main olefin plants at ports have stopped, significantly weakening local demand. - Most downstream users have completed pre - festival stocking, resulting in weakened phased demand [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 687 yuan/ton (unchanged), CFR China Main Port is 388 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars/ton), import cost is 3270 yuan/ton (down 78 yuan/ton), CFR Southeast Asia is 557 dollars/ton (unchanged). Domestic prices vary by region, with Jiangsu at 3210 yuan/ton (down 85 yuan/ton), Shandong at 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged), Hebei at 2725 yuan/ton (up 225 yuan/ton), Inner Mongolia at 2430 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan/ton), and Fujian at 3240 yuan/ton (down 85 yuan/ton). - In the futures market, the closing price of futures is 3139 yuan/ton (down 212 yuan/ton), the registered warehouse receipts are 7641 (unchanged), and the valid forecasts are 487 (up 340). - In terms of price spreads, the basis between Jiangsu and Shandong is 7900 yuan/ton (up 127 yuan/ton compared to the previous value), the import spread is 131 yuan/ton (up 134 yuan/ton compared to the previous value), and there are also various other price spreads with different changes [8]. - **Operation rate data**: - The operation rates in East China are 80.65% (unchanged), Shandong is 68.71% (down 2.39% compared to the previous value), Southwest is 44.06% (down 1.22% compared to the previous value), Northwest is 81.54% (down 3.55% compared to the previous value), and the national weighted average is 74.90% (down 3.81% compared to the previous value) [8]. - **Inventory data**: - East China port inventory is 51.07 tons (down 3.73 tons compared to the previous value), and South China port inventory is 31.60 tons (down 1.66 tons compared to the previous value) [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance or have reduced production, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and many others in the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end dates and production losses [58]. - **Overseas plants**: In Iran, some plants like ZPC and Kimiaya have reported recovery but need verification. Other plants in different countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the US have various operation statuses, including normal operation, restarting, and planned outages [59]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operation statuses. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected for 45 days. Other plants in different regions have different operation and maintenance situations [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic methanol prices rose strongly, driven by external macro - factors. The supply in the inland area is stable, and the import is expected to further decrease. The transfer orders in the inland area increased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the weekend, with an active trading atmosphere. Some traders built positions in addition to hedging. The ongoing and intensifying Middle - East geopolitical conflict and restricted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about supply shortages, driving up oil prices and pulling up chemical products. The short - term methanol spot and futures markets will continue to rise, and the follow - up of downstream buyers needs to be monitored. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2460 - 2700 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are as follows: the supply in the inland is stable, import is expected to decrease, and the transfer orders in the inland increased over the weekend. The Middle - East conflict and Strait of Hormuz situation drive up oil and chemical prices. The short - term market will rise, and downstream buying needs attention. The basis in Jiangsu is 56, with the spot at a premium to the futures. As of February 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 97.53 tons, a 3.26 - ton increase from the previous period, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas increased by 9.36 tons to 55.43 tons. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2460 - 2700 [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down or reduced loads, such as Inner Mongolia Black Cat and Shanxi CITIC. Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and methanol imports in February are expected to continue to shrink. The methanol plants in the production areas actively reduced inventory before, and the current inventory is low, with some enterprises even limiting sales. Some downstream users continue to stock up before the Spring Festival [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no supply shortage. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are gradually shutting down for holidays, weakening the demand for raw materials. The main olefin plants at the ports have shut down, significantly weakening local demand. Most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and the phased demand has decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim in Jiangsu remained at 689 yuan/ton, while the price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased from 2865 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main port in China decreased from 334 dollars/ton to 326 dollars/ton, and the import cost decreased from 2837 yuan/ton to 2765 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 2830 yuan/ton to 2549 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 500 to 9896 [8]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - The basis of Jiangsu - Lunan decreased from 555 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton, and the import spread increased from 7 yuan/ton to 216 yuan/ton. The spread between Jiangsu and Hebei decreased from 610 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia decreased from - 72 dollars/ton to - 80 dollars/ton [8]. 3.3.3 Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate decreased from 78.71% to 74.90%. The operating rates in East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest all decreased to 80.65%, 68.71%, 44.06%, and 81.54% respectively [8]. 3.3.4 Inventory Data - The inventory at East China ports increased from 58.19 tons to 62.00 tons, while the inventory at South China ports decreased from 39.34 tons to 37.43 tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods and loss volumes vary [59]. 3.4.2 Overseas Plant Conditions - Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, with some under maintenance or having reduced loads [60]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Conditions - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, while others are operating stably or with normal loads [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current US-Iran conflict only affects the methanol market from the emotional and expected aspects, without substantial long-term supply interruption. High inventory and sufficient domestic production capacity form a strong safety buffer, and price fluctuations are mainly short-term pulses. Key attention should be paid to the two core risks of unexpected conflict escalation and lower-than-expected downstream demand. [45] 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Market Review - **Methanol Futures and Spot Prices and Spread Trends**: The main methanol contract MA2605 closed at 2,580 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 18% and a position of 820,000 lots. The basis strengthened slightly but remained at a discount. [6] - **Methanol Spot Prices in Various Regions and Price Differences between Production and Sales Areas**: The methanol spot market rose overall this week. The weekly average price in the Taicang area was 2,355 yuan/ton, a 5.84% increase from last week. The weekly average price in Inner Mongolia was 1,918 yuan/ton, a 3.51% increase from the previous week. Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, there was an expectation of reduced supply. Some olefin enterprises made periodic purchases, and the overall trading center of the market moved up. However, the overall trading volume was relatively limited, and some industry players remained on the sidelines. The increase in coastal areas was higher than that in inland areas, and the price difference between production and sales areas widened. [9] - **Methanol Foreign Prices and Domestic-Foreign Price Differences**: Globally, methanol prices rose to varying degrees. This week, the reference negotiation price for non-Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far future was 274 - 310 US dollars/ton, and Iranian cargoes lacked active offers. The price in South Korea rose to around 380 US dollars/ton, and the European methanol price was 355 - 360 euros/ton, a 17.74% increase from the beginning of the week. [12] Part 2: Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Methanol Operating Rate**: As of March 5, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from last week but a 5.72 percentage point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 87.93%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points from last week and a 3.96 percentage point increase from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest decreased slightly this week, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance. [16] - **Import and Transshipment Arbitrage Windows**: Both the import and transshipment arbitrage windows were closed. [17] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The coastal methanol inventory this week was 1.4133 million tons, still at a relatively high level in history. It increased by 14,600 tons from last week, a 1.04% increase, and was 35.76% higher than the same period last year. The estimated available methanol supply in coastal areas was 724,000 tons. The overall提货 volume in Taicang this week increased compared with last week, and the提货 volume of ship cargoes and road transport increased steadily. It is expected that the arrival volume of imported methanol ships in China from early to mid-March will be 270,000 tons, and attention should be paid to the arrival of methanol cargoes from the Middle East in the later period. [22] - **Crude Oil and Natural Gas**: Tensions in the situation have raised concerns about the energy supply security in the Middle East, causing international crude oil and natural gas prices to rise, which has increased the cost of imported methanol. [24] - **Methanol's Upstream - Coal**: The domestic thermal coal market rose first and then fell this week. Most coal mines in production had good sales, and the pithead prices continued to be adjusted strongly. However, the downstream's acceptance of high prices declined, and the procurement rhythm slowed down. Some coal mines with relatively fast cumulative price increases in the early stage had relatively large price corrections. The profit of coal-to-methanol production has been repaired, and coal-to-methanol enterprises have a strong willingness to start production. [29] - **Methanol's Downstream Prices and Operating Rates**: The operating loads of dimethyl ether, methylal, acetic acid, and formaldehyde increased, while the demand for olefins was weak. The overall weighted operating rate of methanol downstream was 72%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was 55.6%, a 7.52% increase from the previous week. [31][32] - **Methanol's Downstream - Traditional Downstream**: Not elaborated in detail in the report - **Methanol's Downstream - MTO**: The average operating load of methanol-to-olefin plants this week was 78.14%, a decrease of 2.14 percentage points from last week. Among them, the average load of MTO plants using externally purchased methanol was 70.29%, the same as last week. This week, the olefin plant in Shaanxi was under maintenance, and the operating load of domestic CTO/MTO decreased. Among the externally purchased plants, Ningbo Fude and Chengzhi Phase II planned to reduce their loads, Sierbang and Xingxing had not restarted yet, and the two sets of equipment of Lianhong were operating at low loads. The operating conditions of coastal externally purchased plants were average, and the demand side remained weak. [42] Part 3: Future Outlook - **Short-term Operation**: Driven by events, closely monitor the development of the situation. The market is volatile and prone to fluctuations, so avoid blindly chasing high prices. - **Medium-term Operation**: Wait for the layout window after the emotional impact fades, and pay attention to the convergence of the 5 - 9 spread. Anchor on the fundamentals (core fundamental data such as port inventory, downstream operating rate, and domestic plant load). After the geopolitical sentiment fades and the price falls to a reasonable range, conduct trend layout based on the supply - demand pattern, and do not participate in highly uncertain emotional games. [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol prices will be oscillating and strengthening in the near future. Although methanol enterprises' overall profit is poor, domestic methanol production is expected to remain high. This week, port arrivals are expected to increase, and the downstream olefin production is expected to have a stable operating rate. Traditional downstream plants that were shut down or had reduced production are expected to restart, leading to an anticipated rise in the overall downstream methanol operating rate. With an ample supply of methanol, port inventories are expected to decline from a high level. The escalation of the US-Iran situation has raised concerns about a reduction in methanol imports [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the port methanol market oscillated. The price range in Jiangsu was 2180 - 2270 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, it was 2180 - 2260 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market followed the macro sentiment, opening high and closing low, with a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. Inland methanol prices first rose and then fell. The price range in the main production area of Erdos North Line was 1837 - 1867 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price range was 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton. After the festival, the market sentiment fluctuated significantly, and trading volume first increased and then decreased. Main production area enterprises still had a strong willingness to sell, aiming to reduce inventory and speed up sales. Downstream rigid - demand enterprises had high inventories and generally adopted a cautious and wait - and - see attitude [1]. Factors to Watch - Methanol production changes, methanol port inventory changes, and the development of the US - Iran situation [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Basis (Jiangsu) | Yuan/ton | 28 | 22 | 6 | 27.3 | Weekly | | Inland methanol sample enterprise inventory | 10,000 tons | 53.53 | 34.03 | 19.5 | 57.3 | Weekly | | Port methanol inventory | 10,000 tons | 144.67 | 143.22 | 1.45 | 1.0 | Weekly | | Weekly production | 10,000 tons | 207.31 | 207.18 | 0.13 | 0.1 | Weekly | | Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol profit | Yuan/ton | - 223.2 | - 239 | 15.8 | 6.6 | Weekly | | North China coke - oven gas - to - methanol profit | Yuan/ton | 99 | 89 | 10 | 11.2 | Weekly | | Southwest natural gas - to - methanol profit | Yuan/ton | - 290 | - 290 | 0 | 0 | Weekly | | Downstream acetic acid operating rate | % | 84.11 | 84.6 | - 0.49 | - 0.6 | Weekly | | Downstream olefin production operating rate | % | 85.32 | 85.3 | 0.02 | 0 | Weekly | [3] Position Analysis - On February 27, 2026, in terms of trading volume, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) ranked first with 229,508 lots and an increase of 19,475 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) ranked first with 85,355 lots and an increase of 3,613 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) ranked first with 173,187 lots and an increase of 13,705 lots [15].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed significant gains on January 26, with methanol futures rising to 2330.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.64% [1] - In the Jiangsu Taicang methanol market, the spot price opened between 2290-2300 yuan/ton, with a basis weakening to -25 to -30 yuan/ton [2] - Current supply constraints are attributed to Iranian methanol facilities undergoing winter maintenance, leading to a reduction in domestic port inventories and a recovery in port spot prices [2] Group 2 - Demand is affected by the continued shutdown of Zhejiang Xingxing facilities and reduced operating rates in other MTO facilities in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with expectations of further operational declines [2] - The overall outlook for January-February indicates a decrease in import expectations, with ongoing geopolitical tensions in Iran impacting the market [2] - Short-term price trends are expected to remain strong amid these supply and demand dynamics [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,230 to 2,290 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,210 to 2,250 yuan/ton. The inland methanol price continued to decline, with the price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranging from 1,830 to 1,838 yuan/ton, and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2,105 to 2,118 yuan/ton. Despite the support from the procurement of olefins in the northwest and the rising port prices, the market remained weak due to high enterprise inventories and weak downstream demand [7]. - Recently, the production capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is more than the output from capacity recovery, resulting in a decrease in overall production. This week, the inventory of inland enterprises increased slightly, while the port inventory decreased significantly. Although the port methanol inventory decreased, the total volume is still at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货 volume [7]. - In terms of demand, the MTO device of Zhejiang Xingxing has entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises are still operating at reduced loads. The operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry continued to decline this week. It is expected that the MTO devices will operate stably next week, with no obvious change plan, and the weekly average operating rate is expected to decline [7]. - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,210 - 2,300 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated, inland prices declined. Market was weak due to high inventory and weak demand [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production decreased. Inland enterprise inventory increased slightly, port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the MTO industry weakened, and the operating rate is expected to decline [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,210 - 2,300 in the short term [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a decline of 1.5% [11]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of January 16, the MA 5 - 9 spread was - 9 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary scope. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8,355, an increase of 700 compared to last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of January 15, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2,247.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 1,842.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 405 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of January 15, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 266 US dollars/ton, with no change compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 56 US dollars/ton, with no change compared to last week [35]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 25.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - **Upstream**: As of January 14, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week. As of January 15, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.14 US dollars/million British thermal units, with no change compared to last week [42]. - **Industry**: As of January 15, China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a decrease of 6,990 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a decrease of 0.34% compared to the previous period. As of January 14, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 45.09 tons, a slight increase of 0.32 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 23.78 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared to the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.13%. The total port inventory was 143.53 tons, a decrease of 10.19 tons compared to the previous period. In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%; from January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60%. As of January 15, the methanol import profit was - 24.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/ton compared to last week [47][50][55]. - **Downstream**: As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 86.93%, a decrease of 2.38% compared to the previous period. As of January 16, the domestic methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 1,021 yuan/ton, an increase of 84 yuan/ton compared to last week [58][61]. 3.5. Option Market Analysis - No relevant information provided

Group 1: Report's Overall Rating and Core View - The investment rating of the methanol industry is "Oscillating and Declining" [1] - The core view is that the domestic methanol market continues regional adjustment. After the futures oscillate at a high level and decline, there is a slight rebound. Coastal ports accumulate inventory as expected, the near - end follows demand, and the basis weakens. Due to poor MTO profits, the operation dynamics of some projects need to be closely monitored. The follow - up situation in the inland market is okay in the morning, but the actual buying and reselling sentiment weakens again as the market declines, and the trading is in a weak stalemate in the afternoon [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main 05 - contract is 2,267 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price is 2,280 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the trading volume is 1,857,665 lots, an increase of 251,745 lots; the open interest is 818,847 lots, a decrease of 5,689 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,205 tons, unchanged; the trading volume in ten thousand yuan is 4,234,878, an increase of 599,234 [2] - The basis is 6, an increase of 31; the spread between MA01 and MA05 is - 32, a decrease of 7 [2] Spot Market - The price in Inner Mongolia is 1,835 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi is 1,870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong is 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index is 2003.94, down 4.02. Among them, the Taicang spot price is 2,273, up 8; the northern Inner Mongolia price is 1,842.5, down 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 3 cities have different degrees of decline, with a decline range of 7.5 - 20 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 million tons, an increase of 4.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. This week, the methanol port inventory continues to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The visible foreign vessel unloading within the cycle is 22.71 million tons. The pick - up in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remains robust. The opening of the inland delivery space leads to weak shipments in the coastal side - warehouses. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrive at ports intensively, and the inventory accumulates significantly with stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreases slightly this week. In Guangdong, there is a small amount of imported and domestic trade vessel replenishment within the cycle. Affected by holidays, the pick - up volume in the main storage areas decreases, and the inventory fluctuates little. In Fujian, there are no vessels arriving at ports this week, and the inventory shows a decline under the downstream rigid - demand consumption [4][5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The later methanol regional market will show a differentiated pattern with stronger sales areas, weaker northwest regions, and post - increase fluctuations in ports. The upward trend in the inland is supported by the incremental demand for olefins and freight, while the port trend awaits new variables such as shipping schedules and inventory. [5] - In the inland, the load of the new olefin plant of Lianhong has increased to about 80%. Although the local market's upward rhythm is suppressed by port and low - cost logistics supplies in the short term, the incremental demand for olefins in southern Shandong is clear, so the upward trend of local methanol remains unchanged. Snowy weather has led to an increase in freight, which supports the arrival price in northern Shandong. Therefore, methanol in the sales areas is expected to continue to be strong. [5] - In the production areas, affected by the winter snow and its impact on transportation, methanol plants in the production areas maintain low - inventory operations. Coupled with the weakening of olefin demand after the resumption of the Jiutai methanol plant and the increase in cross - regional freight, the methanol price in the northwest is expected to continue to be weak. [5] - In the ports, high inventory and weak demand still suppress the upside, but the expected reduction in overseas arrivals in January also supports the bottom. Given the significant increase in port prices on Thursday this week, the port methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate after the increase next week, waiting for new variable guidance. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival rhythm of port shipping schedules and corresponding inventory changes. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The later methanol market will show a differentiated pattern. The inland will be strong due to olefin demand and freight, the northwest will be weak, and the ports will fluctuate after an increase. [5] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Domestic Methanol Spot Price**: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Jiangsu increased by 0.34%, while that in Hebei decreased by 1.84% and in Inner Mongolia by 2.12%. [6] - **Methanol Basis**: The spot price increased by 0.34%, while the futures price decreased by 0.48%. The basis also changed during the week. [8] - **Methanol Production Profits by Process**: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 50, natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit increased by 318. [10] - **Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load**: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54%. [12] - **Outer - Disk Methanol Price and Spread**: The CFR China price increased by 0.83%, and the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged. The spread also changed. [15] - **Methanol Import Spread**: The import cost increased by 0.64%, and the import spread decreased by 7. [18] - **Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week. [25] - **Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products**: Formaldehyde production profit increased by 18, dimethyl ether production profit increased by 57, and acetic acid production profit decreased by 4. The loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid also changed to different extents. [26][28][33] - **MTO Production Profit and Load**: The MTO production profit decreased by 22, and the MTO device load decreased. [37] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: The inventory in East China decreased by 8.85, and that in South China decreased by 0.99. [38] - **Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: The warehouse receipts increased by 13.82%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged. [42] 3.3 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end dates and loss amounts. [45] - **Overseas Methanol Device Operation**: Overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries have different operation statuses, including normal operation, restarting, and planned or unplanned maintenance. [46] - **Olefin Device Operation**: Olefin plants in different regions such as the northwest, east, central, and northeast have different operation statuses, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production. [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market continued to decline. The core contradiction of oversupply at the port remained unchanged, and the market lacked driving forces for improvement due to multiple negative factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the output from restored production capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the port methanol market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu and Guangdong fluctuated between 1970 - 2090 yuan/ton. Inland supply shortages briefly improved local transactions, but the core contradiction of port oversupply remained [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland enterprise inventory declined, and port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 2.48% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 21, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 134 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 20, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 6,581, a decrease of 4,998 from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 20, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,007.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 47.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 20, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 233 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 84 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week [32]. - **Basis**: As of November 20, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 20, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, an increase of 41,210 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.77%, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,479,300 tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory decreases [49]. - **Import Volume and Profit**: In October 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 11.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of November 20, the methanol import profit was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96 yuan/ton from last week [52]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. The load of East China olefin enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average operating rate increased slightly [55]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 448 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week [58].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has been experiencing a continuous decline since August 2025, with a drop of nearly 20%, primarily due to high inventory, high supply, and weak demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The direct driver of methanol's decline is the high inventory pressure along the coast, with port inventory exceeding 1.5 million tons since September [6]. - The increase in inventory is mainly due to high import volumes, with October's import unloading estimated at 1.65 million tons, and November expected to maintain high levels [6]. - Overseas methanol production capacity utilization remains high, particularly in Iran, where production limits have not met expectations, contributing to sustained inventory pressure [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains weak, with many downstream products experiencing poor terminal demand and deteriorating profits, leading to reduced operating rates in methanol downstream procurement [10]. - Specific downstream sectors, such as acetic acid and MTBE, are facing supply growth outpacing demand growth, further pressuring profits and production rates [10]. - Seasonal factors are also at play, with expectations of reduced demand as winter approaches, particularly for products like formaldehyde [10]. Group 3: Regional Market Dynamics - Inland markets are showing relatively stronger performance compared to coastal markets, supported by higher coal prices, although there is a risk of reduced operating rates if profits continue to be squeezed [14]. - Recent data indicates a decrease in port inventory, suggesting some support for inland methanol prices, although supply is expected to increase in the short term [16]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The main methanol contract has seen fluctuations around 2,100 yuan/ton, recently accelerating its decline to around 2,000 yuan/ton due to weak market conditions and unmet production cut expectations from Iran [18]. - The overall outlook for the methanol market remains bearish in the short term, with limited recovery potential, although winter gas supply constraints may eventually ease pressure [18]. - Long-term prospects depend on actual supply reductions and demand recovery, with potential upward momentum if Iranian production cuts materialize [18].