2026年03月02日 期货研究报告 甲醇：港口库存预期高位下降，震荡偏强 蒯三可 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015369 kuai sanke@nzfco.com 报告导读： 关注因素：1.甲醇开工变化；2.甲醇港口库存变化；3.美伊局势发展。 | 甲醇 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周环比变化率% | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差(江苏) | 元/吨 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 27.3 | 周度 | | 内地甲醇样本企业库存 | 万吨 | 53.53 | 34.03 | 19.5 | 57.3 | 周度 | | 港口甲醇库存 | 万吨 | 144.67 | 143.22 | 1.45 | 1.0 | 周度 | | 周产量 | 万吨 | 207.31 | 207.18 | 0.13 | 0.1 | 周度 | | 内蒙古煤制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | -223.2 | -239 | 15.8 | 6.6 | 周度 | | 华北焦炉气制甲醇利润 | 元/吨 | 99 | 89 | 10 | 11.2 | ...

现货方面，1月26日江苏太仓甲醇市场基差走弱。早间开盘太仓现货商谈2290-2300元/吨，基差-25~-30 元/吨；1下基差商谈05-30~-40元/吨；2下商谈-10~-20元/吨；3下商谈+18~+25元/吨。 1月26日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，甲醇期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报2330.00 元/吨，震荡上行2.64%。 总体来看，新湖期货表示，1-2月进口预期下降，伊朗局势反复，关注港口烯烃装置运行情况，短期价 格震荡偏强为主。 需求方面，据光大期货介绍，本周浙江兴兴装置延续停车，同时江浙地区其余MTO装置也有降负，行 业周均开工下降，后续斯尔邦MTO装置预期停车，宁波富德MTO装置计划重启，对冲之后开工仍有走 低。 基本面上，宝城期货指出，当前伊朗甲醇装置正处于冬季检修期，供应"硬收缩"导致国内港口库存延续 去化节奏，从而令港口现货价格的修复，基差走强。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2026.01.16」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 3 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场震荡整理运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2230-2290元/吨，广东价 格波动在2210-2250/吨。内地甲醇价格延续走跌，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1830- 1838元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2105-2118元/吨。虽周内西北烯烃外采，港口价格走高 利好下，但基于企业高库存及下游弱需求压制下，市场延续疲软。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量减少。 本周内地企业库存小幅增加，港口库存大幅去库，主要基于卸货总量不大，江苏沿江主流库区提 货尚可，江浙其他社会库提货表现较为一般，虽浙江仍有新增终端停车，但卸货较少背景下库存 明显下降。尽管港口甲醇库存下降，但总量仍处较高水平，短期关注外轮卸货速度及提货量变动。 需求方面，浙江兴兴MTO ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Rating and Core View - The investment rating of the methanol industry is "Oscillating and Declining" [1] - The core view is that the domestic methanol market continues regional adjustment. After the futures oscillate at a high level and decline, there is a slight rebound. Coastal ports accumulate inventory as expected, the near - end follows demand, and the basis weakens. Due to poor MTO profits, the operation dynamics of some projects need to be closely monitored. The follow - up situation in the inland market is okay in the morning, but the actual buying and reselling sentiment weakens again as the market declines, and the trading is in a weak stalemate in the afternoon [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main 05 - contract is 2,267 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price is 2,280 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the trading volume is 1,857,665 lots, an increase of 251,745 lots; the open interest is 818,847 lots, a decrease of 5,689 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 8,205 tons, unchanged; the trading volume in ten thousand yuan is 4,234,878, an increase of 599,234 [2] - The basis is 6, an increase of 31; the spread between MA01 and MA05 is - 32, a decrease of 7 [2] Spot Market - The price in Inner Mongolia is 1,835 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi is 1,870 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong is 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index is 2003.94, down 4.02. Among them, the Taicang spot price is 2,273, up 8; the northern Inner Mongolia price is 1,842.5, down 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 3 cities have different degrees of decline, with a decline range of 7.5 - 20 yuan/ton [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 million tons, an increase of 4.08 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. This week, the methanol port inventory continues to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The visible foreign vessel unloading within the cycle is 22.71 million tons. The pick - up in the main storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remains robust. The opening of the inland delivery space leads to weak shipments in the coastal side - warehouses. In Zhejiang, foreign vessels arrive at ports intensively, and the inventory accumulates significantly with stable demand. The inventory in South China ports decreases slightly this week. In Guangdong, there is a small amount of imported and domestic trade vessel replenishment within the cycle. Affected by holidays, the pick - up volume in the main storage areas decreases, and the inventory fluctuates little. In Fujian, there are no vessels arriving at ports this week, and the inventory shows a decline under the downstream rigid - demand consumption [4][5] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （12.08 -12.12 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：后期甲醇区域行情呈现销区偏强、西北偏弱、港口涨后震荡的分化格局，其中内地涨势依托 烯烃需求增量与运费支撑，港口走势需等待船期及库存等新变量指引。内地方面，据悉联泓新建烯烃装置负 荷提升至8成左右，虽然短期来看港口以及低价物流货源压制当地行情上涨节奏，但后期鲁南烯烃需求增量 逻辑明确下，当地甲醇上涨的趋势不变。另外雨雪天气导致运费上涨，对鲁北到货价格有支撑，在此背景下 预计销区甲醇继续偏强运行。产区方面，受冬季雨雪易影响运输的因素制约，产区甲醇工厂维持低库存运 营；叠加久泰甲醇装置恢复后当地烯烃需求走弱、跨区域运费 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market continued to decline. The core contradiction of oversupply at the port remained unchanged, and the market lacked driving forces for improvement due to multiple negative factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the output from restored production capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the port methanol market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu and Guangdong fluctuated between 1970 - 2090 yuan/ton. Inland supply shortages briefly improved local transactions, but the core contradiction of port oversupply remained [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland enterprise inventory declined, and port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 2.48% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 21, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 134 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 20, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 6,581, a decrease of 4,998 from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 20, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,007.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 47.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 20, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 233 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 84 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week [32]. - **Basis**: As of November 20, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 20, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, an increase of 41,210 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.77%, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,479,300 tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory decreases [49]. - **Import Volume and Profit**: In October 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 11.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of November 20, the methanol import profit was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96 yuan/ton from last week [52]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. The load of East China olefin enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average operating rate increased slightly [55]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 448 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week [58].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market has been experiencing a continuous decline since August 2025, with a drop of nearly 20%, primarily due to high inventory, high supply, and weak demand, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The direct driver of methanol's decline is the high inventory pressure along the coast, with port inventory exceeding 1.5 million tons since September [6]. - The increase in inventory is mainly due to high import volumes, with October's import unloading estimated at 1.65 million tons, and November expected to maintain high levels [6]. - Overseas methanol production capacity utilization remains high, particularly in Iran, where production limits have not met expectations, contributing to sustained inventory pressure [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side remains weak, with many downstream products experiencing poor terminal demand and deteriorating profits, leading to reduced operating rates in methanol downstream procurement [10]. - Specific downstream sectors, such as acetic acid and MTBE, are facing supply growth outpacing demand growth, further pressuring profits and production rates [10]. - Seasonal factors are also at play, with expectations of reduced demand as winter approaches, particularly for products like formaldehyde [10]. Group 3: Regional Market Dynamics - Inland markets are showing relatively stronger performance compared to coastal markets, supported by higher coal prices, although there is a risk of reduced operating rates if profits continue to be squeezed [14]. - Recent data indicates a decrease in port inventory, suggesting some support for inland methanol prices, although supply is expected to increase in the short term [16]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The main methanol contract has seen fluctuations around 2,100 yuan/ton, recently accelerating its decline to around 2,000 yuan/ton due to weak market conditions and unmet production cut expectations from Iran [18]. - The overall outlook for the methanol market remains bearish in the short term, with limited recovery potential, although winter gas supply constraints may eventually ease pressure [18]. - Long-term prospects depend on actual supply reductions and demand recovery, with potential upward momentum if Iranian production cuts materialize [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market remained stable overall today, with a market average price of approximately 1,977 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. Regional prices showed a steady and adjusted trend, with prices in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places remaining stable or fluctuating slightly, and prices in coastal and key regions such as Shandong and Taicang maintaining within a specific range. The main methanol futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, the basis trend was stable, and the coastal spot prices were slightly adjusted following the market. High port inventories put pressure on the market, resulting in a dull sentiment among buyers to enter the market and a general negotiation atmosphere. The demand side was differentiated. Some olefin plants in the northwest continued to purchase methanol externally, supporting the local market, but the demand from traditional downstream industries was weak. Most factories' raw material inventories were at medium to high levels and only made purchases as needed, with low acceptance of high - priced methanol. The inland market prices were narrowly adjusted under the interweaving of multiple and short factors [4]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market | Region | Present Value (yuan/ton) | Previous Value (yuan/ton) | Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Taicang | 2072 | 2072 | 0 | | Inner Mongolia North Line | 2005 | 2008 | -3 | | Shaanxi Guanzhong | 1945 | 1945 | 0 | | Xinjiang (outside the region) | 1620 | 1620 | 0 | | Shandong Linyi | 2180 | 2180 | 0 | | Henan | 2060 | 2055 | 5 | [1] Futures Market | Contract | Present Value (yuan/ton) | Previous Value (yuan/ton) | Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 | 2103 | 2108 | -0.24% | | MA2605 | 2209 | 2208 | 0.05% | [1] Transaction Price Range in Taicang on November 13th - 11:00 - 2080 - 2090 - 01:00 - 20 - 18 - 01:00 + 12 + 15 - 12:00 PM - 2115 - 2120 [1][3] Device Status - Shandong Yankuang Group Guohong's 640,000 - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant started double - furnace operation today and is expected to resume in about a week. - Yulin Kaiyue Coal Chemical's 700,000 - ton/year coal - to - methanol plant stopped for maintenance on October 10th. There was a problem with the boiler on November 11th, and it is expected to resume in 2 - 3 days. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Methanol is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decrease. The near - term is still dominated by weak reality. High port inventory, high imports, and continued inventory accumulation trends, along with the marginal deterioration in the inland market and the delayed progress of gas - shutdown of Iranian devices, are putting pressure on methanol prices [3][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Production Cost and Profit - The price of thermal coal continues to rise. Affected by supply tightening and winter storage expectations, traders are generally optimistic about the winter storage market, with strong reluctance to sell. However, the current price has exceeded the acceptance level of downstream terminals, resulting in light actual transactions. The coal - to - methanol production profit has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure [6][53]. Supply - This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the shutdown progress of natural - gas devices in the southwest. The external operating rate has declined. Iranian devices are operating at a high load, and it is reported that three enterprises plan to shut down from late November to December. Other regions have various device conditions, such as some devices in Tebah and Malaysia being in overhaul [6]. Demand - As the methanol price falls, the profit of port MTO has improved, and the inland methanol price has also loosened, with the MTO profit also rising. However, the future expectations for MTO devices are poor, with some devices having shutdown and overhaul plans. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different situations in various sub - industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, dimethyl ether, etc. [6][7]. Inventory - Inland inventory has increased by 10,400 tons to 386,400 tons compared with last week, and the enterprise order backlog has increased by 5,500 tons to 221,100 tons. Port inventory has increased by 10,600 tons to 1,517,100 tons, with inventory accumulation in the East China region and destocking in the South China region [7]. Regional Price Difference/Freight and Logistics Window - Port prices have stabilized after falling with the futures market, and the spot pressure is relatively high. Inland prices have rebounded, driven by large - scale device overhauls and increased external procurement of olefin devices. Freight rates are showing a weak downward trend. The opening and closing of logistics windows help to balance regional price differences and supply - demand disparities [14][24]. Domestic Production - End Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of coal - to - methanol has slightly deteriorated, and the natural - gas - to - methanol production is relatively under pressure. As of October 2025, the non - CTO device capacity has increased by 1.63% this year, and it is expected that the annual capacity growth rate will be 7.71%. This week, the number of restarted devices is more than that of overhauled devices, and the operating rate has increased slightly [53][78][82]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - Global methanol prices are generally falling. The import profit of Iranian methanol and non - Iranian methanol shows certain trends. The external operating rate has declined, and the import volume and arrival volume have their own characteristics. The import volume in September was 1.4269 million tons, with a net import of 1.4092 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.22% but a month - on - month decrease of 19.01% [112][134][170]. Downstream Profit and Load - The profit of MTO has improved as the methanol price falls, but the future expectations for MTO devices are poor. Traditional downstream demand is relatively flat, with different profit and operating rate situations in various sub - industries [176][219].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is a weak and volatile outlook [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall supply of methanol was abundant, with high inventory levels and slow de - stocking, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. The demand was weak and differentiated, providing only limited support to the market. Although the cost side was supported by relatively strong raw materials, the production profit was under pressure, and the support was limited. The market sentiment was generally cautious, and the short - term price was likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range instead of aggressively short - selling [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the domestic methanol supply remained abundant. The industry's operating load increased slightly, especially in the Northwest region. The capacity utilization rates of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased. Although some plants were newly shut down or continued to be out of operation, more plants resumed production, and the overall output showed an upward trend. The import volume was stable, and the port arrivals were sufficient. Coupled with the high previous inventory, the market supply was well - supported. Inland enterprises were eager to sell, and the flow of goods between ports and inland areas was smooth [2] Demand - This week, the downstream demand for methanol was generally weak and differentiated. The demand from the main downstream olefin (CTO/MTO) sector had some local support, and the purchasing willingness of some enterprises increased slightly. However, the overall industry operation did not improve significantly, and the incremental consumption of methanol was limited. The traditional downstream sectors performed differently. The operating loads of formaldehyde and MTBE increased slightly, while those of dimethyl ether and acetic acid decreased, and DMF remained stable. Most traditional products only met their rigid demand and had a weak willingness to increase purchases actively. The downstream buying interest at ports was insufficient, and although the local demand in inland areas improved slightly due to olefin procurement, it was not a widespread phenomenon. Overall, the demand side provided weak support to the methanol market [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory was under high - level pressure. The port inventory remained at a historically high level. Although the unloading rhythm in some areas and the提货 volume in individual warehouses fluctuated slightly, the overall de - stocking speed was slow. With sufficient future arrivals, the port inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The inventory in some ports in East China increased slightly, and that in South China adjusted slightly. The inland market inventory was differentiated. Most enterprises' inventories accumulated, while only a few regions saw a slight decline in inventory due to supply reduction caused by plant maintenance. Affected by sufficient supply, weak demand, and the back - flow of low - priced port goods, inland enterprises faced difficulties in selling, and the overall inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Profit - This week, the overall profit of methanol was under pressure, and different production processes showed different performances. The profit of coal - based methanol shrank significantly as the rising price of raw coal pushed up production costs while the spot price of methanol declined, squeezing the profit margin. The profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol also decreased, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol widened. The cost pressure was continuously transmitted to the production end. The profit of downstream sectors improved locally. Some products saw a slight improvement in profit due to the decline in methanol prices or their own supply - demand adjustments, but most downstream industries were still in the loss range, and the profit transmission in the entire industrial chain was not smooth, with no obvious improvement in the profitability [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated in a recent speech that the United States armed Israel while telling Iran not to have missiles or the right to self - defense. Iran does not want war but will not allow other countries to violate its rights. Pezeshkian also said that Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and is willing to negotiate within the framework of international law, but will not accept humiliation [2] Investment View - It is expected that the short - term price of methanol will continue the weak and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking rhythm and plant start - stop dynamics. It is not recommended to aggressively short - sell, and it is advisable to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range [2] Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see with a bearish view; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [2]