Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [4] - The viewpoints for PX, PTA, and PR are all scored 0 [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On November 3, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $61.05 per barrel (up 0.11%), Brent crude oil was $64.89 per barrel (down 0.28%), naphtha CFR Japan spot price was $582.38 per ton (up 0.32%), xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $685.00 per ton (up 0.96%), and PX CFR China main port was $819.00 per ton (down 0.16%) [1] - **PTA**: On November 3, 2025, CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,596 yuan per ton (up 0.22%), settlement price was 4,606 yuan per ton (up 0.52%), near - month contract closing price was 4,542 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), settlement price was 4,552 yuan per ton (up 0.26%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,532 yuan per ton (up 0.44%), CCFEI PTA inner - market price index was 4,535 yuan per ton (up 0.55%), and outer - market was $616.00 per ton (up 0.65% as of October 31) [1] - **PX**: On November 3, 2025, CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,640 yuan per ton (up 0.33%), settlement price was 6,662 yuan per ton (up 0.85%), near - month contract closing price was 6,678 yuan per ton (up 0.85%), settlement price was 6,690 yuan per ton (up 1.55%), domestic PX spot price was 6,480 yuan per ton (down 0.11% as of October 31), CFR China Taiwan was $821.00 per ton (unchanged), FOB Korea was $796.00 per ton (unchanged), PXN spread was $236.63 per ton (down 1.34%), PX - MX spread was $134.00 per ton (down 5.52%) [1] - **PR**: On November 3, 2025, CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,674 yuan per ton (up 0.04%), settlement price was 5,686 yuan per ton (up 0.39%), near - month contract closing price was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.63%), settlement price was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.63%), polyester bottle - chip market price in East China was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.35%), and in South China was 5,770 yuan per ton (up 0.35%) [1] - **Downstream**: On November 3, 2025, CCFEI price index for polyester DTY was 8,500 yuan per ton (up 0.59%), POY was 6,825 yuan per ton (up 0.74%), FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton (unchanged), FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton (unchanged), polyester staple fiber was 6,345 yuan per ton (down 0.16%), polyester chip was 5,600 yuan per ton (up 0.09%), and bottle - grade chip was 5,730 yuan per ton (up 0.35%) [2] Operating Conditions - On November 3, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 79.66% (unchanged), polyester factory load rate was 89.56% (up 0.22%), bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63% (up 2.32%), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 72.28% (unchanged) [1] - On November 3, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 53.04% (up 9.07%), polyester staple fiber was 48.41% (down 1.11%), and polyester chip was 68.12% (up 22.49%) [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device No. 4 of Dushan Energy was tested on October 25. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News - **PX**: The market is still cautious about the US attack on Venezuela, and oil prices maintain a certain risk premium. OPEC+ decides to increase production in December, which exerts pressure on oil prices. On November 3, the CFR China price of PX was $819 per ton. An expanded - capacity device in the Northeast has restarted and is in stable production, and the overall demand is good [2] - **PTA**: The production - cut expectation was not fulfilled. The cost of PTA is supported by the strong - oscillating crude oil market. A new 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been tested and produced. The overall downstream demand is still weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5,680 - 5,820 yuan per ton, remaining stable. The news is less favorable than expected, and the PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuate weakly in a narrow range. The market atmosphere is dull, and the downstream purchasing willingness is low [2][3] Long - Short Logic - **PX**: It slightly rises following the cost. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,640 yuan per ton (up 0.51%) with a trading volume of 174,200 lots. Some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance or will be under maintenance, but the market supply remains stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices are operating stably. The call for anti - involution in the industry has increased, but it has limited impact on PX supply and demand in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The TA2601 contract closed at 4,596 yuan per ton (up 0.31%) with a trading volume of 638,900 lots. The crude oil market is strongly oscillating, supporting the cost of PTA. The spot supply is sufficient, and there is no unplanned device maintenance. The production - cut expectation on the supply side has failed. Although the domestic demand is good and foreign trade orders have improved recently, the overall downstream demand is still weak [2]

Core View - The short - term geopolitical risks and inventory decline support a rebound, but the weak chemical demand and the global pattern of strong supply and weak demand remain unchanged. LPG is expected to remain weak in the medium - to - long term [3] - Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure was relieved in the short term [2] - Crude oil rebounded due to geopolitical risks, and the expected increase in Saudi CP drove up the cost of LPG [2] - The operating rate of PDH plants remained at a multi - year low, the polypropylene price fell below the 2023 low, and the profit loss of alkylation plants widened [2] - The propane inventory in the United States is at a historical high, the export volume from the Middle East has increased significantly, and the unexpected decline in Saudi CP reflects the abundant supply [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - **开工 and Inventory**: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - **开工 Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - **Refined - Product Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - **Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:

Core Viewpoint - The methanol futures market has been experiencing a downward trend since August, with the main contract dropping over 5% and reaching a two-month low due to weak fundamentals and high supply pressure [1][4]. Supply Analysis - Domestic methanol production remains high, with operating rates at 83%-85% and daily output at 270,000 tons. The recovery of previously shut-down facilities is expected to further increase production [1]. - Iran's methanol shipments are projected to exceed 1 million tons in August, contributing to a potential record high in monthly imports to China [1]. - High upstream production profits and capacity utilization rates indicate that the supply surplus is unlikely to change in the near term [1]. Demand Analysis - Core downstream sectors are facing significant losses, with MTO facilities in East China reporting a loss of 789 yuan per ton, which is suppressing operational and purchasing willingness [1]. - Traditional downstream products like formaldehyde and dimethyl ether are in a consumption lull, leading to low overall operating rates [1]. - There is a notable divergence in profits between upstream and downstream sectors, with high upstream profits not being effectively transmitted to the downstream due to strong resistance to high raw material prices [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 27, methanol port inventory in China reached 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons, nearing historical highs. The sellable inventory also hit a record high of 670,000 tons, putting downward pressure on spot prices [2]. - The current market shows a "two-tier" inventory situation, with high port inventories and low inland inventories. Inland methanol inventories are approximately 200,000 tons, significantly lower than the average for the same period in previous years [4]. Price Dynamics - Weak cost support from domestic coal prices and declining international natural gas prices are contributing to the downward pressure on methanol prices [3]. - The market is expected to remain bearish in the short term due to high supply and weak demand, with limited potential for price rebounds until inventory levels are effectively reduced [4]. Future Outlook - The high inventory situation at ports is likely to persist, but the potential for further significant increases in inventory is low. Supply is expected to gradually decrease as autumn maintenance approaches [5]. - Two potential positive factors for the market include the upcoming "golden September and silver October" demand season and expectations of reduced methanol supply from countries like Iran due to natural gas production limits [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly due to the game between the expected support from the export end and the domestic demand in the third quarter. The implementation of India's tender and the release of quotas will relieve the domestic high - supply pressure to some extent, but the domestic consumption restricts the upward elasticity. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak and volatile, and the actual export volume needs to be monitored [29]. - For methanol, the inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August, with high output year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the import in August is still high. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits. The 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract has seasonal peak season and Iran's shutdown expectations. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the near - end weakens [32]. - In the polyester industry, the supply of PX is expected to increase marginally in August, but the demand from PTA and the terminal is not good, so the PX rebound is lack of drive. PTA's supply - demand situation has improved in the short - term but is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve. Short - fiber's short - term supply - demand drive is limited. Bottle - chip's processing fee has support, and its absolute price follows the cost [37]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the demand for caustic soda is currently good, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rebound height is limited. PVC's supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity release, and the downstream demand has no sign of improvement [46]. - In the polyolefin industry, the supply of PP and PE has different trends, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the peak season. The fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to stop profit for short positions and hold the LP01 contract [52]. - For crude oil, the overnight oil price declined due to the supply - side factors. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the oil price is under pressure. The oil price is likely to remain weak, and the impact of the US - Russia negotiation on Friday needs to be monitored [59]. - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, pure benzene has short - term support but limited self - drive, and its rebound is under pressure. Styrene has a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [63]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Urea - **Futures Contracts**: On August 13, the 01 contract was 1747 yuan/ton (-0.51% compared to August 12), the 05 contract was 1788 yuan/ton (-0.45%), the 09 contract was 1726 yuan/ton (-0.06%), and the methanol main contract was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [25]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: On August 13, the 01 - 05 contract spread was -41 yuan/ton (-2.50% compared to August 12), the 05 - 09 contract spread was 62 yuan/ton (-10.14%), the 09 - 01 contract spread was -21 yuan/ton (27.59%), and the UR - MA main contract spread was -649 yuan/ton (2.26%) [26]. - **Main Positions**: On August 13, the long top 20 positions were 42364 (-17.26% compared to August 12), the short top 20 positions were 49534 (-18.28%), the long - short ratio was 0.86 (1.26%), the unilateral trading volume was 90686 (-0.82%), and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt quantity was 3823 (0.00%) [27]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On August 13, the price of anthracite small pieces in Jincheng was 900 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of thermal coal at the pithead in Ejin Horo Banner was 525 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [28]. - **Spot Market Prices**: On August 13, the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (0.58%), in Shanxi was 1620 yuan/ton (-0.61%), etc. [28]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: On August 13, the Shandong - Henan spread was -10 yuan/ton (0%), the Guangdong - Henan spread was 140 yuan/ton (-7%), etc. [29]. - **Downstream Products**: On August 13, the price of melamine in Shandong was 5194 yuan/ton (0.00%), the price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan was 2930 yuan/ton (0.00%), etc. [29]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: On August 15, the domestic daily urea output was 19.21 million tons (1.05% compared to August 14), the coal - based urea daily output was 15.03 million tons (1.35%), etc. [29]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the MA2601 closing price was 2479 yuan/ton (-0.68% compared to August 12), the MA2509 closing price was 2375 yuan/ton (-0.67%), etc. [31]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573% (0.64% compared to the previous value), the methanol port inventory was 102.2 million tons (10.41%), and the methanol social inventory was 131.7% (8.06%) [31]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 73.17% (2.28% compared to the previous value), the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 76.4% (0.00%), etc. [32]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On August 13, the POY150/48 price was 6745 yuan/ton (0.2% compared to August 12), the FDY150/96 price was 7095 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China PX price was 10300 yuan/ton (-0.4% compared to August 12), the PX - naphtha spread was 267 yuan/ton (1.1%), etc. [37]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the PTA East - China spot price was 4695 yuan/ton (-0.2% compared to August 12), the TA09 - TA01 spread was -34 yuan/ton (0.0%), etc. [37]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: On August 11, the MEG port inventory was 51.6 million tons (7.2% compared to August 4), and the MEG arrival expectation was 14.1 million tons (3.7%) [37]. - **Polyester Industry Operating Rate Changes**: The Asian PX operating rate was 73.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the PTA operating rate was 76.2% (0.9%), etc. [37]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On August 13, the Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500 yuan/ton (0.0%), the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2620 yuan/ton (0.8%), etc. [42]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the P - 13 - 4 price was 390 US dollars/ton (-2.59% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 142.5 yuan/ton (19.0%) [42]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: On August 7, the CFR Southeast Asia price was 680 US dollars/ton (0.0% compared to July 31), and the export profit was 30.3 yuan/ton (152.5%) [43]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry operating rate was 89.1% (1.7% compared to August 1), the PVC total operating rate was 77.8% (6.1%), etc. [44]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry operating rate was 82.6% (0.2% compared to August 1), the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 85.0% (0.0%), etc. [45]. - **Inventory**: On August 7, the liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory was 21.9 million tons (2.0% compared to July 31), the PVC total social inventory was 48.1 million tons (7.3%), etc. [46]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the L2601 closing price was 7381 yuan/ton (-0.11% compared to August 12), the L2509 closing price was 7313 yuan/ton (-0.22%), etc. [50]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: The East - China LDPE price was 9550 yuan/ton (0.00% compared to the previous value), the East - China HD film price was 7490 yuan/ton (-0.13%), etc. [51]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate was 77.8% (-2.10% compared to the previous value), the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 37.9% (-0.47%), etc. [51]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, Brent was 65.63 US dollars/barrel (-0.74% compared to August 13), WTI was 62.79 US dollars/barrel (0.22%), SC was 490.50 yuan/barrel (-0.77%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, NYM RBOB was 207.72 US dollars/gallon (0.33% compared to August 13), NYM ULSD was 224.90 US dollars/gallon (0.28%), etc. [59]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: On August 14, the US gasoline crack spread was 24.45 US dollars/barrel (2.08% compared to August 13), the European gasoline crack spread was 16.04 US dollars/barrel (0.00%), etc. [59]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the CFR China pure benzene price was 751 US dollars/ton (-0.5% compared to August 12), the pure benzene - naphtha spread was 187 US dollars/ton (1.1%), etc. [63]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: On August 13, the styrene East - China spot price was 7350 yuan/ton (-0.3% compared to August 12), the EB09 - EB10 spread was -23 yuan/ton (-11.5%), etc. [63]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: On August 13, the phenol cash flow was -720 yuan/ton (-1.2% compared to August 12), the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was -1845 yuan/ton (1.7%), etc. [63]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: On August 11, the pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.60 million tons (-10.4% compared to August 4), the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 14.88 million tons (-6.4%), etc. [63].