证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 塑料 ❑ 8 月 19 日，公司发布 2025 年中报：2025H1，公司实现营业收入 53.51 亿元，同 比+15.67%；实现归母净利润 5.01 亿元，同比+51.19%；加权平均净资产收益率 为 5.01%，同比增加 1.61 个百分点。销售毛利率 24.82%，同比增长 1.66 个百分 点；销售净利率 9.75%，同比增加 2.44 个百分点。 圣泉集团(605589) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 25 日 其中，2025Q2 实现营收 28.92 亿元，同比+16.13%，环比+17.62%；实现归母净 利润 2.94 亿元，同比+51.71%，环比+42.34%；平均净资产收益率为 2.95%，同 比增加 1.05 个百分点，环比增加 0.89 个百分点。销售毛利率 25.40%，同比增加 2.00 个百分点，环比增加 1.27 个百分点；销售净利率 10.55%，同比增加 2.62 个 百分点，环比增加 1.76 个百分点。 点评 ❑ PPO 等放量叠加传统树脂迭代升级，公司 25H1 业绩同比大幅提升 2025H1，公司实现营业收入 53.51 亿元 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Electronic Fabric Industry Industry Overview - The conference discusses the electronic fabric industry, specifically focusing on quartz fiberglass fabric and its applications in high-end AI chip packaging and the impact of COP (Chip-on-Panel) technology on upstream materials [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increased Demand for Low CTE Materials**: High-end AI chip packaging is driving a surge in demand for low CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) materials, with quartz fiberglass fabric being critical due to its near-zero expansion coefficient [1]. 2. **Impact of COP Technology**: If COP technology matures, it will reduce the need for ADF (Adhesive Dielectric Film) substrates, necessitating an increase in the number of PCB (Printed Circuit Board) layers from 20-30 to 30-50 layers, which will significantly increase the usage of quartz fiberglass fabric by 10%-50% [2][14]. 3. **Purity of Quartz Fiberglass**: The purity of quartz directly affects the CP (Coefficient of Performance) value, with high-end AI chips preferring quartz sand with a purity of 4N or above. Domestic manufacturers are working to catch up, with expectations to meet these requirements by late 2025 or early 2026 [1][6]. 4. **Production Barriers**: The core barriers in electronic fabric production lie in the drawing process and raw materials. The technology for synthetic quartz sand is currently monopolized by Japan, but domestic companies like Feilihua are developing their capabilities [9][10]. 5. **Growth in LDP Demand**: The demand for LDP (Low-Density Polyethylene) is expected to peak in 2026, potentially reaching 3-5 million meters per month, driven by advancements in chip capabilities [11][12]. 6. **Future of Quartz Fiberglass Fabric**: The number of layers in quartz fiberglass fabric is expected to increase by 10%-20% as chip capabilities improve, and the value of PCB and fiberglass fabric could increase by 50% with the adoption of orthogonal backplane technology [13][14]. 7. **Material Cost and Pricing Trends**: The price of quartz fiberglass fabric is currently high due to supply-demand imbalances, but it is expected to stabilize around 200 RMB per unit in 3-5 years as production capacity expands [40][41]. Additional Important Insights - **Technological Development**: There is a need for the development of new electronic fabrics that can meet the performance and CTE requirements of COP technology, which will enhance overall performance and ensure compliance with packaging standards [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The introduction of the Rubin series is anticipated to begin volume production by mid-2026, which will depend on sales performance and the overall market demand for quartz fiberglass fabric [31][33]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Domestic manufacturers are making strides in the electronic fabric sector, with varying strengths in different technical aspects such as raw material production and post-processing techniques [7][23]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the electronic fabric industry, particularly focusing on the implications of technological advancements and market dynamics.

Summary of Conference Call on Resin Industry and CCL Market Industry Overview - The resin market, particularly low dielectric loss and low dielectric constant hydrocarbon resins, is rapidly growing due to increased demand from 5G, 6G communications, and AI computing. The market capacity is expected to reach 3 billion RMB by 2026, becoming a key material for CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) [1][25]. Key Players and Market Dynamics - High-end CCL market competition is changing, with Chinese companies like Shengquan, Dongcai, and Shiming breaking the Japanese monopoly and capturing market share in M8 and above grade materials [1][5]. - Shengquan is the largest domestic supplier of modified PPO resin, holding over 40% market share; Dongcai has 20%-30% share in the PPO field; Shiming leads in hydrocarbon resins with over 40% share [1][7]. Material Usage and Trends - The higher the CCL grade, the greater the proportion of hydrocarbon resins used. For instance, in M7 grade, the PPO to hydrocarbon ratio is approximately 7:3, while in M9 grade, it shifts to 3:7, indicating a growing demand for low-loss materials in high-end applications [1][10]. - The supply of hydrocarbon resins is expected to be tighter than PPO by 2026, with total demand projected to exceed 6,000 tons against a production capacity of only about 3,000 tons [1][16]. Expansion Plans - Domestic and international manufacturers are actively expanding production to meet future demand. Shengquan plans to increase PPO capacity to 5,000 tons, while Dongcai and Shiming are also expanding their production [1][12]. - The expected market capacity for epoxy resins in CCL is projected to be between 1.5 billion to 2 billion RMB by 2026, while hydrocarbon resin usage is expected to grow to 3 billion RMB [8]. Regional Demand Insights - Taiwan is a significant market for GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA, with hydrocarbon resin demand expected to reach over 1,000 tons by 2026 [2][17]. - The overall demand in Taiwan is projected to be around 2,000 tons, while mainland China is expected to have over 1,000 tons of demand [17]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end CCL market has traditionally been dominated by Japanese companies, but Chinese firms are rapidly gaining ground due to technological advancements [5][6]. - Shengquan, Dongcai, and Shiming are positioned to increase their market shares significantly in the coming years, particularly in the hydrocarbon resin segment [30]. Material Pricing and Supply Chain - The price of hydrocarbon resins has decreased from 1 million RMB per ton in 2024 to around 700,000 RMB in 2025, with domestic prices ranging from 500,000 to 600,000 RMB per ton [14][15]. - The resin, electronic cloth, and copper foil do not have a direct substitution relationship, as each serves a distinct purpose in the manufacturing process [19]. Future Outlook - The resin industry must continue to innovate and adapt to meet diverse customer needs and application scenarios, ensuring competitiveness through ongoing research and development [34]. - The hydrocarbon resin market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of around 3 billion RMB in the next two to three years [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the resin industry and its implications for the CCL market, highlighting the competitive landscape, material usage trends, and future growth prospects.

Summary of Shengquan Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shengquan Group - **Industry**: Electronic Chemicals and Materials, PCB (Printed Circuit Board) Industry Key Points and Arguments 1. **Profit Forecast for 2025**: Shengquan Group expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 490 million to 513 million CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.19% to 54.83% driven by the surge in AI computing power and the demand for high-frequency, high-speed substrates [2][4] 2. **Electronic Chemicals Business Growth**: The electronic chemicals segment has made significant progress, expanding product offerings to include low dielectric materials such as polyphenylene oxide (PPO) and hydrocarbon resins, with revenue from electronic products increasing by approximately 170 million CNY in the first half of the year [2][6] 3. **Production Capacity Expansion**: Shengquan Group plans to add a new production line by the end of the year to meet growing market demand, with all existing production lines fully utilized [2][7][8] 4. **Daqing Wind Power Project**: The Daqing wind power project has commenced construction, with an expected total investment of approximately 1.1 billion CNY and an annual profit exceeding 100 million CNY once operational [4][12] 5. **International Supply Chain Integration**: Shengquan Electronics has successfully entered the supply chains of several international companies, including major firms in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, with plans to further integrate low dielectric materials into these companies [4][20][21] 6. **Financing Plans**: Shengquan Electronics plans to release 10% of its equity this month to support development in the electronic sector and attract more financial institutions [2][18] 7. **R&D and Product Development**: The company is focusing on high-value products in the hydrocarbon resin sector, with ongoing development of various resin types and a significant increase in R&D personnel [10][19] 8. **Market Demand for Semiconductor Materials**: There is a high demand for Shengquan's products in the semiconductor packaging sector, particularly for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) packaging technology [23][24] Additional Important Information 1. **Production Line Flexibility**: The new production line is designed to be flexible, allowing for the production of multiple products (OPE, PPO, ODV) on the same line to meet urgent demand [26] 2. **Infrastructure Investment**: Shengquan plans to invest 1 billion CNY in infrastructure next year, including the construction of three new factories for various resin products [3][9] 3. **Market Positioning**: Shengquan Electronics is positioned as a leading domestic manufacturer in the low dielectric materials market, with a competitive edge in product certification and capacity release [18][25] 4. **Challenges in the Industry**: The overall PCB industry is facing challenges with profitability, but Shengquan maintains a gross margin of around 20% due to its diversified applications and production capacity [14] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Shengquan Group conference call, highlighting the company's growth trajectory, strategic initiatives, and market positioning within the electronic chemicals and PCB industry.

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhongcai Technology Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses Zhongcai Technology's performance in the high-end materials market, particularly focusing on OPE (Optical Performance Enhancer) and carbon hydrogen resin sectors [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **OPE Orders and Delivery**: Zhongcai Technology has a robust order book for OPE, with expected deliveries of 30-35 tons this month. The company anticipates a significant increase in carbon hydrogen resin deliveries from 40 tons in July to 50-60 tons in Q4, indicating strong growth momentum [2][3]. 2. **AI Development Impact**: The advancement of AI necessitates improvements in both computing power and algorithms. Domestic large models are lagging in speed and performance compared to international counterparts, primarily due to hardware patent restrictions. This has led to increased capital market interest in computing power enhancements [2][4]. 3. **International Market Development**: The high-speed digital business has transitioned from materials like Ma 6 and Ma 7 to Ma 8, which is now mature in international markets. The company plans to start transitioning to Ma 9 in Q3, with expectations of a significant ramp-up in Q4 and a full-scale explosion in 2026, positioning Zhongcai as a mainstream supplier [2][5]. 4. **Material Composition Changes**: The Ma 9 numerical system reduces OPE components while increasing the use of carbon hydrogen resin. This change aims to optimize medium loss from 8/10,000 in Ma 8 to between 5/10,000 and 6/10,000, catering to lower-tier market demands [2][6][7]. 5. **Carbon Gold Product Production**: The production of carbon gold products is expected to reach 40 tons in July, increasing to 50-60 tons in Q4. Demand from major clients has doubled, with the company capturing 70-80% of the domestic market share in special carbon fiber quality [2][8][9]. 6. **Capacity and Demand**: Zhongcai Technology does not face capacity bottlenecks, with a monthly production capacity of 80 tons and an annual capacity of 3,500 tons at the Meishan plant. The increase in orders in the second half of the year is attributed to rising market demand rather than taking market share from other suppliers [2][11][12]. 7. **Pricing Trends**: The price of Ma 9 resin is expected to be five times that of Ma 8, with Ma 8 carbon fiber priced around 500,000 yuan per ton and Ma 9 projected to be between 2-4 million yuan per ton. Variations in carbon fiber structures among manufacturers may limit the potential for changes post-stabilization [2][19][20]. 8. **Market Dynamics**: There are currently no explicit price reduction demands from clients, and high-end products like gold paper have not seen price declines. The market remains stable, with companies focusing on their supplier situations [2][14][16]. 9. **Future Production Plans**: The Meishan base's capacity release is scheduled for 2026, with the potential to support production volumes of several hundred tons after upgrades [2][15]. 10. **Competition and Market Share**: The OPE market share is difficult to predict, but if demand doubles by the end of 2026 and existing suppliers cannot meet it, Zhongcai Technology may increase its market share [2][17]. Additional Important Insights - **Technical Barriers**: The chemical industry faces significant technical barriers due to the experience required for production. Many companies are interested in entering the field, but achieving stable mass production and customer certification remains challenging [2][24]. - **Client Preferences**: Domestic downstream clients currently prefer using carbon hydrogen materials over PTFE materials, indicating a shift in material preferences [2][21]. - **Future Projections**: The expected shipment volume for special carbon crystals in 2026 is projected to reach at least 10 tons, with a total annual volume of around 180 tons, which is substantial given the high price range [2][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the high-speed copper-clad laminate resin materials industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for high-speed resin materials is driven by the explosive growth of AI servers, which require advanced materials to meet higher electrical performance standards [7][10]. - Domestic resin manufacturers are positioned to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the AI server market, with companies like Dongcai Technology and Shengquan Group leading the way in high-end electronic resin production [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The development of AI models necessitates high-performance hardware, leading to increased demand for advanced materials. Traditional epoxy resins are inadequate for the electrical performance required by AI servers, prompting the shift to low-dielectric resins such as BMI, PPO, and hydrocarbon resins [10][11]. 2. AI Server Volume and Upgrades - The global AI server shipment is projected to grow by approximately 46% in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025. This surge will drive demand for high-speed copper-clad laminates and, consequently, high-end electronic resins [12][29]. 2.1. Performance Requirements Driving Material Upgrades - AI servers require materials that minimize signal loss and energy dissipation, leading to a preference for low Dk and Df materials. The shift from traditional epoxy resins to advanced materials is essential for meeting these performance standards [15][22]. 2.2. Demand Space Estimation for High-Speed Resins - The estimated market size for high-speed resin materials is projected to reach around 3 billion yuan by 2026, driven by the increasing demand from AI servers and upgraded server platforms [28][29]. 2.3. Opportunities from Industry Concentration and Market Changes - The concentration of the copper-clad laminate industry in mainland China presents opportunities for domestic resin suppliers to enter and expand in the market, especially as the demand for high-speed laminates grows [31][32]. 3. High-End Electronic Resins with High Technical Barriers - The high-end electronic resin market is characterized by significant technical barriers, with leading companies in Japan and the US currently dominating the sector. However, domestic companies are making strides in developing competitive products [40][41]. 3.1. BMI Resins: Domestic Companies Making Progress - Domestic manufacturers like Dongcai Technology and Shengquan Group are advancing in the production of BMI resins, with significant capacity and growth projections [49][50]. 3.2. PPO Resins: Awaiting Demand from M7 and M8 High-Speed Boards - The development of PPO resins is crucial as demand for M7 and M8 high-speed boards increases, with domestic companies actively working on improving production capabilities [51][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant performance improvement in Q1 2025, with projected net profit increasing by 45.58% to 56.49% year-on-year [5][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.87%, and a net profit of 868 million yuan, also up 9.94% year-on-year [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.55% [5] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 200 million to 215 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to an increase of 62.615 million to 77.615 million yuan year-on-year [5][8] - The company’s revenue from synthetic resin products reached 5.343 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.33% [6] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, with a 45.6% increase compared to the index's 8.2% [3] - The current stock price is 27.26 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 17.14 to 32.01 yuan [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.678 billion, 13.041 billion, and 14.879 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.273 billion, 1.421 billion, and 1.633 billion yuan [10][13] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million yuan, also up by 9.9%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 830 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [4][8]. - In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.87 billion yuan, which is an 18.1% increase year-on-year and a 13.6% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q4 was 290 million yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year but up 15.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 billion yuan, proposing a payout of 5.5 yuan per 10 shares [4][8]. - For Q1 2025, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders between 200 million and 215 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45.6% to 56.5% [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's synthetic resin products, advanced electronic materials, and biomass products generated revenues of 5.34 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 960 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.7%, and 11.7% [8]. - The total sales volume for these products was 696,000 tons, 69,000 tons, and 217,000 tons, with respective year-on-year increases of 8.9%, 1.1%, and 23.6% [8]. - The gross profit margins for these segments were 20.7%, 27.4%, and 14.3%, with slight changes year-on-year [8]. Business Segments - The company’s two main businesses, phenolic resin and casting materials, showed stable growth in market share. In 2024, phenolic resin sales reached 529,000 tons, up 8.4% year-on-year, while casting resin sales were 174,000 tons, up 10.4% [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its advanced electronic materials segment, particularly in high-frequency and high-speed resins, to meet the growing demand driven by AI server performance upgrades [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant performance contributions from its PPO, porous carbon, and biomass projects as they reach full production capacity. Forecasted net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 1.27 billion yuan, 1.57 billion yuan, and 1.99 billion yuan, respectively [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 870 million yuan, also up by 9.9% [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.87 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.6% [1] - The net profit for Q4 was 290 million yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year but up 15.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 billion yuan, with a proposed payout of 5.5 yuan per 10 shares [1] - For Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders between 200 million and 215 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 45.6% to 56.5% [1] Product Performance - In 2024, the company’s synthetic resin products generated revenue of 5.34 billion yuan, advanced electronic materials 1.24 billion yuan, and biomass products 960 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.7%, and 11.7% [2] - The sales volume for synthetic resin products was 696,000 tons, advanced electronic materials 69,000 tons, and biomass products 217,000 tons, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.9%, 1.1%, and 23.6% [2] - The gross profit margins for these segments were 20.7%, 27.4%, and 14.3%, with year-on-year changes of 0.0 percentage points, 1.4 percentage points, and 8.8 percentage points respectively [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s phenolic resin product sales reached 529,000 tons in 2024, up 8.4% year-on-year, while casting resin product sales were 174,000 tons, up 10.4% year-on-year [3] - The company is focusing on developing new applications and expanding into new fields to increase revenue, sales, and market share in the phenolic resin sector [3] - In the casting materials sector, the company is leveraging a full industry chain approach to address overcapacity issues and is targeting key sectors such as new energy vehicles and aerospace [3] Innovations and Future Growth - The company is accelerating the production of high-value-added products in advanced electronic materials, with new production lines for PPO and hydrocarbon resins coming online [4] - The company is also advancing its battery materials business, focusing on the development of silicon-carbon and hard carbon negative materials [4] - The Daqing biomass project resumed production in June 2024 and is expected to achieve a balance between production and sales by the end of the year [4] Growth Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in synthetic resins, with stable profit contributions from electronic chemicals and biomass chemicals, which are expected to open up growth opportunities [5] - The expected performance for 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 1.27 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.99 billion yuan respectively [5]