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红利策略是否可以一直持有不动,需要适时止盈吗?
雪球· 2025-07-24 08:19
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing importance of dividend strategies in the A-share market, particularly in a context of heightened volatility and declining long-term interest rates, highlighting their characteristics of low volatility and high dividends as attractive options for conservative investors [2]. Group 1: Long-term Holding Logic - Dividend strategies provide natural undervaluation protection by adjusting constituent stocks to maintain a favorable dividend yield, effectively implementing a buy low, sell high approach [4]. - Cash dividends from constituent stocks lock in returns, further reducing market volatility risks [5]. - The compounding effect of long-term holding generally yields higher cumulative returns compared to attempting to time the market for profit-taking [5]. Group 2: Necessity of Profit-Taking - The primary reason for profit-taking is the inability to hold during market fluctuations, as dividend strategies, while relatively low in volatility, can still experience significant drawdowns of 20% or more over a three-year period [7]. - Investors should be cautious of valuation bubbles and avoid high dividend traps, as recent regulatory encouragement for dividends may distort historical dividend yield references [8]. - Changes in market environment and style can affect the performance of dividend strategies, with low interest rates and economic downturns favoring these strategies, while strong economic recoveries may necessitate a shift towards growth styles [9]. Group 3: Profit-Taking Strategies - Target return profit-taking involves setting specific profit goals and exiting once achieved [12]. - Profit-taking based on high valuations can be triggered when dividend yields fall below the 50th percentile of the past decade or when price-to-earnings ratios exceed the 75th percentile [12]. - Dynamic rebalancing of asset allocation can facilitate profit-taking, allowing for adjustments when internal ratios deviate by around 5 percentage points, thus achieving a balance between long-term holding and timely profit-taking [12].