021-60635727 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rallied in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.56% at 27,073.03 points and a total turnover of 270.67 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.8% to 5,981.3 points, indicating a positive sentiment in the tech sector [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Alibaba (09988) surged 3.32% to 162 HKD, contributing 78.74 points to the Hang Seng Index, as it secretly launched the "Qwen" project to develop an AI assistant app [2] - China Biologic Products (01177) increased by 6.5% to 7.37 HKD, while Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) rose 4.85% to 38.5 HKD [2] Sector Highlights - The lithium battery sector showed strong performance, with Longpan Technology (02465) up 18.37% to 15.72 HKD and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 12.09% to 59.8 HKD [3] - The innovative drug sector also performed well, with 3SBio (01530) rising 10.18% to 33.78 HKD and BeiGene (06160) increasing by 7.71% to 229 HKD [4][5] Commodity and Energy Sector - Gold stocks collectively rose, with China National Gold (02099) up 7.6% to 147.3 HKD, as gold prices surpassed 4,200 USD per ounce [5] - Oil stocks faced pressure, with CNOOC (00883) down 2.01% to 22.48 HKD, following a report predicting a slight oversupply in the oil market by 2026 [7] Notable Stock Movements - Samsonite (01910) saw a significant increase of 14.39% to 19.08 HKD despite a decline in sales revenue [8] - Fourth Paradigm (06682) rose 9.16% to 53.05 HKD, benefiting from strong demand for AI solutions [9] - DCH Holdings (00179) fell 10.63% to 29.92 HKD due to limited details on new business plans [10] - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (01209) dropped 3.51% to 44.5 HKD after announcing a share placement at a discount [11]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with major companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Chenming Paper seeing substantial stock price gains as a result of rising prices across the supply chain [1] Industry Summary - Since November, the domestic paper industry has been undergoing a price surge, with companies like Shanying Paper announcing price hikes of 30-100 RMB per ton for products such as red sand paper and corrugated paper [1] - Key regions like Guangdong and Zhejiang have seen price increases of 50 RMB per ton for core product categories, indicating a widespread adjustment in pricing [1] - The price increases are being echoed by downstream paperboard manufacturers in regions like Zhejiang and Hunan, with single-instance price hikes reaching 3%-10%, creating a comprehensive price adjustment across the entire supply chain from raw paper to end packaging [1] Company Summary - Stocks of major paper companies have risen significantly, with Nine Dragons Paper up 10.23% to 6.25 HKD, Chenming Paper up 8.86% to 0.86 HKD, and Lee & Man Paper up 4.88% to 3.01 HKD [1] - Analysts from Bohai Securities suggest that the ongoing price increases in packaging paper are solidifying the foundation for price adjustments, supported by upcoming demand from events like "Double Eleven" and the New Year and Spring Festival [1] - According to Industrial Securities, the period from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be one of capacity expansion for the industry, with a slowdown in new capacity additions starting in 2026, potentially leading to an upward turning point for the paper industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks have seen significant gains due to a price increase trend in the domestic paper sector, driven by rising demand and upcoming holidays [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose by 10.23% to HKD 6.25 - Chenming Paper (01812) increased by 8.86% to HKD 0.86 - Lee & Man Paper (02314) gained 4.88% to HKD 3.01 [1] Group 2: Price Increase Trend - Since November, the domestic paper industry has experienced a continuous price increase, with Shanying Paper leading the way by raising prices for products like red sand paper and corrugated paper by CNY 30-100 per ton - Core product prices in Guangdong and Zhejiang have increased by CNY 50 per ton - Nine Dragons Paper and other companies have followed suit, with increases in kraft paper and boxboard [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Downstream paperboard manufacturers in regions like Zhejiang and Hunan have quickly responded with price increases of 3%-10% in a full-chain pricing adjustment from raw paper to end packaging - Bohai Securities noted that the price increase in packaging paper is spreading downstream, solidifying the basis for paper companies' price hikes, supported by the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival and major holidays like New Year's and Spring Festival [1] Group 4: Industry Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the period from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be a capacity expansion phase for the industry, with a slowdown in new capacity additions starting in 2026 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support the paper industry, potentially leading to an upward turning point from the bottom [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong paper industry stocks have surged, with Chenming Paper rising over 6%, Nine Dragons Paper up over 5%, and Lee & Man Paper increasing nearly 3% [1] - Since November, the domestic paper industry has experienced a price increase trend, particularly in the packaging paper sector, characterized by a "leading by the head and following by the end" pattern [1] - Recently, Shanying Paper has initiated price adjustments across multiple bases, with products like Sequoia paper and corrugated paper increasing by 30-100 RMB per ton, and core categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang seeing a rise of 50 RMB per ton [1] Group 2 - Nine Dragons Paper and other companies have followed suit with price increases in kraft paper and boxboard paper [1] - Downstream paperboard factories in regions like Zhejiang and Hunan have quickly responded, with single-instance price increases ranging from 3% to 10%, creating a full-chain price adjustment from raw paper to end packaging [1] - The recent demand for packaging due to "Double Eleven" has supported the price increase of packaging paper, while the supply side shows structural optimization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, particularly in the packaging paper sector, driven by leading companies and subsequent follow-up by others [1] Industry Overview - Since November, the paper industry has seen a significant price increase, with companies like Shanying International leading the way by raising prices for products such as corrugated paper by 30-100 yuan per ton, with core categories in Guangdong and Zhejiang seeing increases of 50 yuan per ton [1] - Following Shanying International, companies like Nine Dragons Paper have also raised prices for products like kraft paper and boxboard [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - According to Datong Securities, the paper industry is in a recovery phase from a cyclical bottom, with an improving supply-demand balance [1] - On the demand side, policy stimulation and the recovery of e-commerce logistics are contributing to a steady increase in demand for packaging and specialty paper [1] - On the supply side, the pressure from new production capacity is diminishing, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [1] Profitability and Market Position - Despite a year-on-year decline in profits for the paper industry from January to September, leading companies are gaining market share through industry chain integration and cost advantages [1] - The price of paper is expected to rise moderately due to cost-driven factors and recovering demand, enhancing the configuration value of the sector [1] Long-term Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities notes that short-term impacts from overseas supply shocks and changes in supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets may influence domestic pulp prices [1] - In the long term, changes in pulp usage structure are expected to lower domestic pulp costs, while global cost curves may rise due to wood and energy costs, benefiting integrated paper mills with upstream forest resources and green energy [1]

Group 1 - The domestic paper industry is experiencing a price increase trend, particularly in the packaging paper sector, driven by leading companies and downstream demand [1] - Companies like Shanying International have initiated price hikes for products such as corrugated paper, with increases ranging from 30 to 100 yuan per ton, while other firms like Nine Dragons Paper have followed suit [1] - The recent "Double Eleven" shopping festival has boosted packaging demand, leading to a rise in order volumes for packaging paper, indicating a gradual recovery in the paper industry [1] Group 2 - The paper industry is transitioning towards "high-end, international, and green" development, with leading companies optimizing their production capacity to alleviate profit margin pressures caused by low-price competition [2] - Major companies are implementing strategies such as the establishment of integrated supply chains, with Shanying Huazhong Paper planning a chemical pulp project and Yibin Paper focusing on bamboo pulp for eco-friendly packaging [2] - The tightening of environmental regulations is expected to increase waste paper costs, intensifying competition among smaller paper companies, which will focus on cost control, technological upgrades, and supply chain integration [2]