基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260104 国际油价小幅上涨，草甘膦、环氧丙烷价格下跌 一月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、 下游需求旺盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司与涨价背景下的部分新能源材料 公司。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525100001 ◼ 本周（12.29-01.04）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 32 个品种价格上涨，29 个品种价 格下跌，39 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 51%的产品月均价环比上涨，39%的产品月均 价环比下跌，10%的产品月均价环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是苯乙烯（FOB 韩 国）、煤焦油（山西）、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, as well as specific stocks like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfuric acid and sulfur, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][8]. - The report notes that international oil prices have sharply risen due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, which may impact oil production and exports [6][21]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the tire industry, which is expected to perform better due to global strategies and tariff experiences [8]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of import substitution in the chemical sector, particularly for lubricating oil additives and special coatings [8]. - The report also highlights the self-sufficiency of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers in China, which are less affected by tariffs [8]. Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include sulfuric acid (up 7.24%) and sulfur (up 7.24%), while significant declines were seen in ammonium chloride (down 10.53%) and urea (down 9.95%) [20][22]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a weak overall performance, with some sectors like tires and lubricants showing better-than-expected results [22]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with expected EPS growth [10][11].

Group 1 - The chemical index outperformed the oil index during the week of April 21-25, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 2.26%, chemical machinery index by 3.18%, pharmaceutical index by 3.29%, and pesticide and fertilizer index by 2.78% [1] - In contrast, the oil processing index fell by 0.48%, while the oil extraction index saw a slight increase of 0.01%, and the oil trading index dropped by 2.87% [1] - International crude oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations, with WTI settling at $63.02 per barrel, down 2.57% from April 17, and Brent at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% [1] Group 2 - The top five performing listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included XianDa Co. with a rise of 49.54%, Zhongxin Fluorine Materials up by 40.89%, Weike Technology up by 33.65%, Zhenhua Co. up by 33.55%, and Xinhang New Materials up by 31.20% [2] - Conversely, the five companies with the largest declines were Jinlitai down by 43.85%, Guoli Technology down by 30.11%, ST Haiyue down by 21.88%, Fanli Technology down by 21.81%, and Yida Co. down by 21.64% [2]

Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 0.13%, the chemical machinery index rose by 1.46%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index grew by 0.66%, while the pesticide and fertilizer index decreased by 0.14% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index increased by 2.59%, the oil extraction index rose by 4.85%, and the oil trading index grew by 1.16% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - As of April 17, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $64.68 per barrel, up 5.17% from April 11, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $67.96 per barrel, up 4.94% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included trichloroethylene up 16.28%, propane up 7.67%, US light crude oil up 5.17%, Brent crude oil up 4.94%, and pure pyridine up 4.02% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included liquid chlorine down 62.28%, organic silicon DMC down 10.71%, butadiene down 9.69%, TDI down 9.00%, and coal tar down 8.70% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five performing listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included Yishihua rising by 55.72%, Hongbaoli up 55.21%, United Chemical up 35.93%, Yinuowei up 28.23%, and *ST Dazhi up 28.07% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Runpu Food down 15.72%, Meinong Biological down 15.21%, Hengguang Co. down 14.91%, ST Huifeng down 13.51%, and Bingyang Technology down 12.68% [2]