文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，回到3.8星。 大中小盘股都上涨，中小盘股上涨更多一些。 今天上涨后，500低波动重新达到高估。 红利等价值风格微涨。 美股纳斯达克100下跌4%；黄金白银等商品价格也出现较大波动。 市场担心美联储降息的不确定性。 不过到了周五，美联储发表讲话，认为预计今年晚些时候，通货膨胀率会继续降低。 美元通货膨胀率降低，有利于美联储降息。 这减缓了市场对短期流动性的担心。 北京时间，上周五晚上全球股票市场、商品市场又出现大幅反弹。 创业板等成长风格上涨较多。 港股今天也整体上涨。 涨幅跟A股差不多。 1. 上周一到上周四，全球股票、商品市场出现较大波动。 周一A股港股开盘之后也出现了补涨。 2. 从2024年9月以来，美联储进入降息周期。 利率之于资产，就好比地心引力之于物体。 美元利率、汇率下降，全球流动性充裕，带动全球资产估值提升。 全球股票市场上涨30%上下，商品等市场也出现大幅上涨。 A股港股上涨更多，整体上涨50-60%。 并且流动性充裕，更容易看到小资产（小盘股、小国家股票市场、小体量的有色金属）出现大幅上涨。 3. 不过中间也会阶段性的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in various stock indices at the beginning of the year, highlighting a positive market sentiment compared to the previous year's performance [1]. Index Performance Summary - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index has risen by 10.19% this year, while the convertible bond equal-weight index has increased by 5.44% [1]. - Other notable indices include: - The Sci-Tech 50 Index up by 9.80% - The CSI 500 Index up by 7.92% - The CSI 1000 Index up by 7.03% - The Shenzhen Component Index up by 4.40% - The Shanghai Composite Index up by 3.82% [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing uncertainty in global markets and the need for diversified investment strategies, particularly highlighting the advantages of Bitget TradFi's unified account experience for cross-market and cross-asset allocation [1][26]. Group 1: Market Trends - The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices dropping by 7% and 10% respectively over the past year, leading to a prevailing sentiment of "fear" among investors [26][27]. - In contrast, traditional financial assets like gold have shown remarkable resilience, with gold prices surpassing $4,500, reflecting a 65% increase over the year [27][29]. - The integration of traditional finance (TradFi) and cryptocurrency markets is becoming a notable trend, with initiatives like tokenized gold expected to gain traction, potentially reaching a market size of $15 billion by 2026 [28][29]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The U.S. government's high deficit and debt issues, with national debt approaching $40 trillion, have led investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold to hedge against currency devaluation risks [29][30]. - Central banks' strategic reserve adjustments and the global trend of de-dollarization have further increased the demand for gold as a core alternative asset [30]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation strategies, as relying solely on cryptocurrency investments poses high risks amid market liquidity issues and external shocks [32][33]. - Bitget TradFi aims to address the fragmentation in multi-asset investment management by providing a unified trading account that allows users to manage various assets seamlessly [34][36]. Group 4: Bitget TradFi Features - Bitget TradFi offers a unified trading account structure that enables users to trade multiple global assets using USDT as the base currency, eliminating the need for fund transfers to external platforms [37][39]. - The platform integrates features from trading exchanges, multi-asset brokerage, and automation tools into a cohesive trading workstation, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [38][39]. Group 5: User Suitability - Bitget TradFi is particularly suitable for investors with experience in brokerage, banking, gold, forex, or derivatives trading, as well as those looking to capitalize on global asset allocation trends [48][49]. - The platform provides a comprehensive solution for investors seeking to manage diverse asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, stocks, and forex, all within a single interface [47][49].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier cities is experiencing a significant downturn, while Hong Kong's property market is thriving, highlighting a stark contrast in investment opportunities and strategies [1][3][5]. Group 1: First-tier Cities Real Estate Market - As of September 2025, second-hand housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen substantial declines, with Beijing down 2.1% month-on-month and Guangzhou experiencing a year-on-year drop exceeding 10% [3]. - Shenzhen's property prices have plummeted by 41.8% from historical highs, indicating a loss of over 4 million yuan on properties that were once valued at 10 million yuan [3]. - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale continues to rise, with Beijing adding 18,448 new listings in September alone, bringing the total for the first nine months to nearly 160,000 [3]. - Rental yields in these cities are low, with the highest being only 1.89%, insufficient to cover a mortgage interest rate of 3.2% [3]. Group 2: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - As of October, the private residential price index in Hong Kong has risen for five consecutive months, with rental prices increasing for nine months, reaching a six-year high [5]. - In prime areas like Hong Kong Island, rental prices for small units under 40 square meters have surged to 527 HKD per square meter [5]. - The rental yield in Hong Kong has climbed to 3.5%, surpassing the mortgage rate of 3.375%, making "renting to pay mortgage" a viable strategy [5]. - Notably, over half of the luxury property transactions exceeding 50 million HKD in Hong Kong this year involved mainland buyers, indicating a shift in investment focus [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Trends - The contrasting trends in real estate markets are prompting investors to reconsider their asset allocation strategies, moving away from the traditional approach of concentrating investments in domestic properties [5][8]. - Investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios, with a suggested allocation of 40% in domestic ETFs and government bonds, 30% in overseas funds, 20% in bonds, and 10% in gold ETFs [7][8]. - The establishment of over 50 new FOF funds in 2025, with a total issuance of 42.1 billion yuan, reflects a shift in investor sentiment towards diversified investment strategies [8]. - Ordinary investors can now access overseas investments through domestic platforms with minimal entry requirements, facilitating a broader investment approach [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that investment is based on future expectations, while valuation is a retrospective indicator, making investment decisions based solely on valuation highly limited [3]. Group 1: Valuation and Index Performance - Comparing valuation growth with index growth provides significant insights into the health of index increases and whether they are driven by earnings or valuation [4][5]. - If valuation growth closely matches index growth, the increase is primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings [6]. - A situation where valuation growth exceeds index growth indicates that the index's rise is entirely driven by valuation, often accompanied by negative earnings growth [6][7]. - Conversely, if valuation growth is smaller than index growth, the increase is primarily driven by earnings, which is considered a healthier and more sustainable rise [7]. Group 2: Recent Index Performance Analysis - Since September 24 of the previous year, major A-share indices have seen increases primarily driven by valuation growth, with significant contributions from indices like the Dividend Low Volatility and the CSI 500, where valuation growth greatly exceeded index growth [9][10]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices have experienced increases primarily driven by earnings growth, with minimal valuation changes [10][11]. Group 3: Phase-by-Phase Index Performance - An analysis of index performance from September 24 to April 30 shows that A-share indices like the CSI 500 and Dividend Low Volatility were entirely driven by valuation growth, with earnings showing negative growth [12][14]. - From April 30 to August 29, A-share indices continued to see increases primarily driven by valuation growth, while the Hang Seng Technology indices experienced increases largely driven by earnings [17][19]. Group 4: Investment Viability - A review of the health of index increases and historical valuation percentiles indicates that most A-share indices are at high valuation levels, suggesting that further investment may not be supported by retrospective indicators [21][22]. - In contrast, the Hang Seng Technology and China Internet 50 indices are at significantly undervalued positions, indicating better investment potential due to their earnings-driven growth [23][24]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices are at high valuation levels, with recent performance primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, raising concerns about the sustainability of their growth [25][26].

Core Insights - Lingyun Community has launched three major fund products to cater to the diverse investment needs of its members in response to global economic changes and market volatility [1] Group 1: Fund Offerings - **Speed Fund**: Designed for members with a high-risk tolerance who prefer short-term trading opportunities, this fund invests in high-volatility assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold, utilizing day trading strategies for efficient value growth [3] - **Value Fund**: Aimed at members seeking long-term stable growth, this fund balances risk and return by investing in high-quality ETFs from both mature and emerging markets, such as S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and CSI 300, focusing on long-term holding and scientific asset allocation [3] - **Stability Fund**: Targeted at members who prefer low-risk, safe investments, this fund offers a diversified portfolio including S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and London gold, employing a diversification strategy to minimize systemic risk and support steady wealth accumulation [3] Group 2: Member Services - Lingyun Community emphasizes enhancing the investment experience for its members by equipping all three funds with comprehensive risk control systems and real-time monitoring mechanisms, supported by a professional internal team to provide transparent and sustainable investment management services [5] Group 3: Future Growth - By focusing on investment sector development, integrating global quality resources, and applying financial technology tools, Lingyun Community aims to create a diversified investment platform, with plans to continue addressing community needs and introducing more innovative fund products while providing education and support for members [7]