全球多元资产配置
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没想到!这样配置居然能跑赢99%的散户!
雪球· 2025-09-27 13:01
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].
汇华理财王茜:百年未有之大变局下全球多元配置势在必行
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-28 23:15
Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry must enhance multi-asset allocation and promote global allocation strategies in response to current market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Global Allocation Importance - The current global landscape is undergoing significant changes, impacting investment across markets [2]. - Factors driving the bond market have become more diverse since February 2020, with increased influence from overseas markets [2]. - Key reasons for the growing overseas influence include increased exchange rate volatility, reduced predictability of Federal Reserve actions, and strengthened economic trade interactions between the Eurozone and China [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Asset Management - The asset management industry faces challenges in investment and allocation due to a high concentration of domestic institutions in RMB-denominated fixed income assets [2]. - A potential economic upturn could lead to a downturn in the bond market, ending a prolonged bull market [2]. - The current asset management scale is large but lacks diversity in asset categories, indicating a need for deeper investment strategies [2]. Group 3: Need for Diverse Asset Allocation Products - There is a demand for more diverse asset allocation products in the domestic market, particularly global multi-asset allocation products [3]. - Academic research indicates that long-term returns of an investment portfolio are primarily determined by asset allocation [3]. - The rise of passive investment is attributed to the growing acceptance of diversified asset allocation, which is cost-effective [3]. Group 4: Misconceptions about Global Allocation Products - There are misconceptions regarding global allocation products, which are primarily mainstream in developed countries [4]. - True global allocation products involve dynamic allocation of domestic and foreign assets while managing foreign currency exposure [4]. - The current market lacks such global allocation products, indicating a significant growth opportunity in this area [4]. Group 5: Strategic Preparedness for Change - Companies should prepare for changes by enhancing talent, mechanisms, and products, focusing on equity, cross-border, and quantitative strategies [4]. - The company has a strong commitment to increasing the proportion of cross-border foreign currency assets and possesses solid capabilities in equity investment and individual stock research [4].
汇华理财总经理王茜:百年未有之大变局下全球多元配置势在必行
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-17 09:19
Group 1 - The conference "2025 Asset Management Annual Meeting" highlighted the importance of diversified asset allocation and global configuration in the current market environment [1] - Wang Qian, General Manager of Huihua Wealth Management, emphasized that global trends significantly influence investment across markets, necessitating a shift towards global asset allocation [3] - The bond market has evolved through three distinct phases over the past two decades, with the current phase characterized by diverse driving factors and significant overseas market influence [4][5] Group 2 - The asset management industry faces challenges due to concentrated investments in RMB fixed-income assets, which could lead to risks if the economy strengthens and the bond market declines [6] - The demand for wealth management in China has shifted, with a growing need for diversified asset allocation products to meet investors' expectations for absolute returns [6][8] - The development of global allocation products is crucial, as current offerings are limited, indicating a significant market opportunity for future growth [8] Group 3 - Academic research indicates that long-term returns of an investment portfolio are primarily explained by asset allocation, highlighting the importance of diversified asset strategies [7] - The concept of global allocation products is often misunderstood, with a need for better-defined products that manage currency exposure while dynamically allocating domestic and international assets [8] - The ongoing global changes, including shifts in geopolitical dynamics and economic policies, necessitate a proactive approach in investment strategies, focusing on cross-border and quantitative assets [9][10]
多元配置FOF:全球市场波动下的“避风港”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 18:04
Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to a surge in gold and oil prices, while major stock indices are declining [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Gold prices have surged, exceeding $3440 per ounce, while oil prices have risen to $78 per barrel [1]. - Major stock indices, including A-shares, Nikkei 225, KOSPI, and Australian indices, have all experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - The Nasdaq index has dropped by 12% in the first half of 2025, with significant losses in major tech companies like Tesla and Apple [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - There is a growing trend towards "global multi-asset allocation" as a safe haven for investors amid rising risk aversion [3][4]. - Multi-asset allocation involves diversifying investments across different countries and asset classes to mitigate risks associated with single markets [4]. - Historical data shows that a diversified portfolio can significantly reduce volatility and enhance returns compared to investing in a single asset class [4][5]. Group 3: FOF Funds - FOF (Fund of Funds) has emerged as a convenient tool for ordinary investors to achieve multi-asset allocation, allowing them to invest in a basket of funds managed by professionals [8][10]. - The example of Guangfa Antai Stable FOF A (012106) illustrates how such funds can invest in various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, both domestically and internationally [8][10]. - FOF funds lower the entry barrier for investors, with many requiring a minimum investment of just 10 yuan [10]. Group 4: Professional Management - The management of multi-asset funds requires extensive research and investment capabilities, which is supported by a team of experienced professionals at Guangfa Fund [16][17]. - The investment manager, Cao Jianwen, has over 10 years of experience in multi-asset investment and employs a rigorous risk management framework [11][13]. - Cao's funds have shown strong performance, with several ranking in the top tier of their categories, demonstrating effective risk control and return generation [13][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The global financial market is undergoing profound changes influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties [18]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a multi-asset, multi-strategy approach to navigate the complexities of the current market environment [18]. - The focus on both defensive and offensive strategies, including investments in gold and high-dividend stocks, is essential for enhancing risk resilience [18].
汇华趋势指南(固收添益):以全球多元资产配置应对低利率时代
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 11:21
Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment poses challenges for investment, but the company has successfully navigated these conditions to achieve positive returns through diversified asset allocation strategies [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company employs a flexible asset allocation strategy that includes interest rate, credit, and cross-border investments to enhance portfolio yield potential [1][2]. - The product has maintained a short duration strategy, keeping the portfolio duration within 0.2 years to effectively manage risks and capture positive returns [2][5]. - The management has executed a disciplined trading approach, including timely profit-taking actions to safeguard gains from foreign exchange exposure [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of May 21, the product achieved an annualized return of 3.02%, exceeding the performance benchmark by 64 basis points [1][7]. - The company’s dollar-denominated product has shown a one-month annualized return of 5.4%, outperforming the average of similar products by 177 basis points [7]. - The maximum drawdown for the dollar product was only -1 basis point, significantly lower than the average drawdown of similar products [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company anticipates potential recovery opportunities in U.S. Treasury bonds due to attractive coupon yields and easing pessimism regarding dollar assets [8]. - The expectation of one to two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may lead to a valuation recovery for U.S. Treasuries, creating capital gain opportunities [8]. - The company suggests that holding a certain exposure to USD/RMB foreign exchange may be beneficial as the market adjusts [8].
主理人面对面丨海外资产波动加剧,开启“全球多元配置”的时机到了吗?
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-27 08:44
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing popularity of "global multi-asset allocation" as a strategy among investors, highlighting its potential to reduce portfolio volatility and diversify income sources through the inclusion of overseas equities, U.S. bonds, and gold alongside domestic stocks and bonds [1][4]. Group 1: Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy - The strategy aims to lower portfolio volatility by incorporating low-correlated assets from different markets, allowing for more diverse income sources [1][3]. - The "Global Multi-Progress" fund advisory strategy was launched by GF Fund to continuously track global asset investment opportunities and scientifically allocate assets for long-term returns [3][4]. - The article clarifies common misconceptions about global multi-asset allocation, stating it is not merely about investing heavily in U.S. stocks but rather about a balanced approach across various asset classes [7][10]. Group 2: Market Performance and Policy Impact - U.S. stock performance has been lackluster in 2023, with significant volatility attributed to fluctuating tariff policies under the Trump administration [4][8]. - The article presents data showing that the China A500 index has outperformed the S&P 500 index this year, raising questions about the viability of global multi-asset allocation in a complex market environment [7][10]. - The article discusses the relationship between U.S. policy stability and stock market performance, suggesting that continued volatility could impact the upcoming midterm elections in 2026 [12][11]. Group 3: Historical Performance and Effectiveness - Historical data from the past decade indicates that global asset allocation strategies have positively influenced account performance across various market cycles [24][26]. - The "Global Multi-Progress" strategy has shown a significant annualized return compared to domestic stock-bond combinations, with a Sharpe ratio five times higher than that of domestic portfolios [26][27]. - The article concludes that the global multi-asset allocation strategy is effective in providing a smoother investment experience and achieving better risk-return profiles [24][27]. Group 4: Implementation of Global Multi-Asset Allocation - The "Global Multi-Progress" fund advisory strategy is structured to include a diversified mix of assets, with a current allocation of approximately 42% in A-shares, 40% in U.S. stocks, and about 7% in gold [29][31]. - The strategy aims to balance growth and stability by maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes both domestic and international assets [31][33]. - The article encourages investors interested in global multi-asset allocation to explore the "Global Multi-Progress" strategy for a comprehensive investment approach [33].