由三亚市人民政府主办，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》、三亚中央商务区管理局、三亚经济研究院承办 的"三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"12月27日在海南三亚举行，主题为"海南自贸港未来定位及三亚新 机遇"。 12月27日，富达基金投顾业务负责人戴旻在"三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会"上表示：近年来，中 国跨境投资工具日益丰富，各类QD基金、跨境ETF等产品不断涌现，为境内投资者提供了更多元的配置选择。当前， 国内固定收益资产收益率逐步下行，仅依靠传统固收产品难以满足投资者养老、教育等中长期财富目标。 与此同时，全球科技创新持续推动经济增长，尤其在人工智能、大模型、新能源等领域，中国均取得显著进展。 通过全球多元的权益资产配置，可以在不同的区域发掘比较好的相关的成长性的机会。因此，财富管理行业正从单一 产品销售向多元化、解决方案式服务转型。 海南全岛封关运作后，有望打造成为跨境资产配置的重要平台。一方面，可引入符合风险等级的海外金融产品， 丰富境内投资者的工具选择；另一方面，通过EF账户等金融账户创新，提升资金流动与配置的灵活性。此外，海南独 特的自然环境与服务业基础，也吸引大量退休及 ...

大家应该都知道，我们几个基金投顾组合都配置了国富全球科技互联基金（006373）。在2023年AI产业刚爆发时，我就给大家推荐了它，并且认为它未 来的业绩是可以跑赢纳指的，这两年的业绩也确实如此。不过最近我发现，跟国富全球科技互联相同基金公司的国富亚洲机会（457001）涨势更凶猛一 些。 我研究后发现，两只基金主要都是配置AI方向，但国富全球科技互联配置的是北美，国富亚洲机会配置的是亚洲。北美其实主要就是美国本土的科技企 业了，包括英伟达、微软、META、谷歌、亚马逊等，属于AI产业链的核心。亚洲配置的其实香港、台湾、韩国，包括威胜控股（智能配电）、玉柴国际 （燃机）、台积电、SK海力士（存储芯片）等，属于AI产业链的配套。A股也有类似的股票，比如中际旭创（光模块）、英维克（液冷）、麦格米特 （电源），也属于AI产业链的配套。 | 股票名称 | 持仓市值(元) | 持仓数量 | 相对上期增减 | 占股票市值比 | 占基金净值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阿里巴巴 | 16.255.564.99 | 12,800 : | 60.00% : | 6.11 ...

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlined the macroeconomic policy for the upcoming year, focusing on boosting consumption, effective investment, and fostering a positive ecosystem for hard technology innovation [3] - Foreign investment institutions expressed strong confidence in the economic outlook following the conference, emphasizing the potential for domestic demand and industrial expansion [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first dissent among committee members in six years, indicating increasing internal divisions [4] - Analysts believe that while further rate cuts are possible next year, the scope for such actions is limited due to persistent inflation and stable unemployment rates [4] Group 3 - The Central Committee's meeting on December 8 emphasized a balanced approach to economic work, focusing on stability and quality improvement, which will support the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - The meeting highlighted the importance of macro policies, expanding domestic demand, and innovation to lay a solid foundation for high-quality economic development [5] Group 4 - China Investment Corporation reported an annualized net return of 6.92% on foreign investments over the past decade, exceeding performance targets by 61 basis points [7] - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of China Investment Corporation reached $1.57 trillion, with net assets of $1.37 trillion [7] Group 5 - The Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund's total assets surpassed HKD 1.5 trillion for the first time, with a net investment return rate of approximately 15% since the beginning of 2025 [8] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a nearly 5% decline in the Hang Seng Index over the past two months, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping close to 15% [13] - Analysts suggest that the recent market adjustments are primarily influenced by liquidity expectations and short-term sentiment, with no significant changes in the fundamentals [13] Group 7 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, with foreign exchange reserves remaining stable above $3.3 trillion for four months [18] Group 8 - Private equity funds maintain high positions in the A-share market, with stock private equity positions reaching 82.97%, marking a new high for the year [20] - The strategy for 2026 is expected to focus on balanced layouts and "high-low cuts," with a belief in the continued foundation for a "slow bull" market [20]

【导读】业内专家解读美联储降息，弱美元环境有利于全球多元资产配置 中国基金报记者曹雯璟张玲 美东时间12月10日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%～3.75%区间。尽管降息25个 基点符合市场预期，但6年来首次出现3名委员投出反对票，暴露其内部分歧加大。 美联储在最新声明中表示，现有指标显示经济活动以适度速度扩张，但今年就业增长放缓，失业率在9 月前有所上升，近期指标也与这些情况相符。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉指出，美联储连续第三次降息，释放了明确的宽松信号。在当前美联储主席 引领下，未来降息路径趋缓，但内部分歧显著，下一任主席大概率会更激进。后续经济韧性、通胀黏性 及就业市场变化将成为关键变量，若数据超预期，则需更谨慎的货币政策调整。"此次降息是全球流动 性拐点，但市场需关注未来美联储政策转向的节奏差异。" "此次投票出现6年来首次3人反对的分歧，既有委员主张更大幅降息，也有委员坚持维持利率以防通胀 反弹。"上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚分析称，未来仍有降息可能，但节奏会显著放缓， 点阵图显示2026年至2027年各降息一次。多家机构预测美联储1月大概率按兵不动，而特朗普提名的具 ...

降息空间亦有限 在如期降息25个基点后，美联储实现连续第三次降息，每次均降25个基点，今年累计下降75 个基点。 【导读】业内专家解读美联储降息，弱美元环境有利于全球多元资产配置 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张玲 美东时间12月10日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.50%～3.75%区间。尽 管降息25个基点符合市场预期，但6年来首次出现3名委员投出反对票，暴露其内部分歧加 大。 受访人士认为，此次降息符合市场预期，明年仍有降息可能，但在"通胀保持高位+失业率不 会跳升"的经济基本面下，降息的空间和可能性都在缩减。同时，美联储降息带来的弱美元环 境，将有利于全球多元资产配置。 明年降息步伐或放缓 美联储在最新声明中表示，现有指标显示经济活动以适度速度扩张，但今年就业增长放缓， 失业率在9月前有所上升，近期指标也与这些情况相符。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉指出，美联储连续第三次降息，释放了明确的宽松信号。在当前 美联储主席引领下，未来降息路径趋缓，但内部分歧显著，下一任主席大概率会更激进。后 续经济韧性、通胀黏性及就业市场变化将成为关键变量，若数据超预期，则需更谨慎的货币 政策调整。"此次降息是全球流 ...

Core Conclusions - The public fund market in 2025 saw an increase in both scale and share, with significant changes in structure, as fixed income and active equity funds experienced net redemptions, while fixed income+ and index equity funds were net subscribed [1][3] - Global equity markets strengthened, with domestic stocks outperforming bonds, leading to overall gains in funds, particularly in active funds outperforming passive products, with notable performance in technology and cyclical theme funds [1][2] - For 2026, it is expected that equities will continue to have upward potential, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced allocation between growth and reversal strategies, while flexibly seizing short-term opportunities [1][4] Market Development: Total Growth and Structural Changes - The total scale of public funds surpassed 35 trillion yuan, with stock funds growing by over 1 trillion yuan, indicating a robust market expansion [13] - The number of public funds increased to 13,300, with significant growth in stock and REITs funds, while money market and alternative investment funds saw a decline [13][25] - Active equity funds grew by 21%, with a notable recovery in new fund launches, particularly in technology theme funds, which saw a growth rate exceeding 50% [1][2][29] Performance Analysis: Strong Equity and Weak Bonds - The performance of various asset classes showed that equities outperformed bonds, with gold reaching new highs and equity assets experiencing a broad rally [2][9] - Active funds outperformed passive funds, with specific themes such as TMT, cyclical, and advanced manufacturing showing strong results [9][2] - Fixed income+ funds demonstrated superior performance, particularly those with high allocations to fixed income and convertible bonds [9][20] Investment Strategies: Balanced Allocation and Trend Following - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy for equity funds, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in capturing phase-specific market opportunities [4][3] - For fixed income funds, the emergence of the fixed income+ era is highlighted, with a focus on asset and strategy characteristics based on risk preferences [5][39] - The report advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, emphasizing the value of overseas and commodity funds, with recommendations to follow QDII quotas and focus on mutual recognition funds and southbound ETFs [6][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry must enhance multi-asset allocation and promote global allocation strategies in response to current market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Global Allocation Importance - The current global landscape is undergoing significant changes, impacting investment across markets [2]. - Factors driving the bond market have become more diverse since February 2020, with increased influence from overseas markets [2]. - Key reasons for the growing overseas influence include increased exchange rate volatility, reduced predictability of Federal Reserve actions, and strengthened economic trade interactions between the Eurozone and China [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Asset Management - The asset management industry faces challenges in investment and allocation due to a high concentration of domestic institutions in RMB-denominated fixed income assets [2]. - A potential economic upturn could lead to a downturn in the bond market, ending a prolonged bull market [2]. - The current asset management scale is large but lacks diversity in asset categories, indicating a need for deeper investment strategies [2]. Group 3: Need for Diverse Asset Allocation Products - There is a demand for more diverse asset allocation products in the domestic market, particularly global multi-asset allocation products [3]. - Academic research indicates that long-term returns of an investment portfolio are primarily determined by asset allocation [3]. - The rise of passive investment is attributed to the growing acceptance of diversified asset allocation, which is cost-effective [3]. Group 4: Misconceptions about Global Allocation Products - There are misconceptions regarding global allocation products, which are primarily mainstream in developed countries [4]. - True global allocation products involve dynamic allocation of domestic and foreign assets while managing foreign currency exposure [4]. - The current market lacks such global allocation products, indicating a significant growth opportunity in this area [4]. Group 5: Strategic Preparedness for Change - Companies should prepare for changes by enhancing talent, mechanisms, and products, focusing on equity, cross-border, and quantitative strategies [4]. - The company has a strong commitment to increasing the proportion of cross-border foreign currency assets and possesses solid capabilities in equity investment and individual stock research [4].

Group 1 - The conference "2025 Asset Management Annual Meeting" highlighted the importance of diversified asset allocation and global configuration in the current market environment [1] - Wang Qian, General Manager of Huihua Wealth Management, emphasized that global trends significantly influence investment across markets, necessitating a shift towards global asset allocation [3] - The bond market has evolved through three distinct phases over the past two decades, with the current phase characterized by diverse driving factors and significant overseas market influence [4][5] Group 2 - The asset management industry faces challenges due to concentrated investments in RMB fixed-income assets, which could lead to risks if the economy strengthens and the bond market declines [6] - The demand for wealth management in China has shifted, with a growing need for diversified asset allocation products to meet investors' expectations for absolute returns [6][8] - The development of global allocation products is crucial, as current offerings are limited, indicating a significant market opportunity for future growth [8] Group 3 - Academic research indicates that long-term returns of an investment portfolio are primarily explained by asset allocation, highlighting the importance of diversified asset strategies [7] - The concept of global allocation products is often misunderstood, with a need for better-defined products that manage currency exposure while dynamically allocating domestic and international assets [8] - The ongoing global changes, including shifts in geopolitical dynamics and economic policies, necessitate a proactive approach in investment strategies, focusing on cross-border and quantitative assets [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to a surge in gold and oil prices, while major stock indices are declining [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Gold prices have surged, exceeding $3440 per ounce, while oil prices have risen to $78 per barrel [1]. - Major stock indices, including A-shares, Nikkei 225, KOSPI, and Australian indices, have all experienced varying degrees of decline [1]. - The Nasdaq index has dropped by 12% in the first half of 2025, with significant losses in major tech companies like Tesla and Apple [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - There is a growing trend towards "global multi-asset allocation" as a safe haven for investors amid rising risk aversion [3][4]. - Multi-asset allocation involves diversifying investments across different countries and asset classes to mitigate risks associated with single markets [4]. - Historical data shows that a diversified portfolio can significantly reduce volatility and enhance returns compared to investing in a single asset class [4][5]. Group 3: FOF Funds - FOF (Fund of Funds) has emerged as a convenient tool for ordinary investors to achieve multi-asset allocation, allowing them to invest in a basket of funds managed by professionals [8][10]. - The example of Guangfa Antai Stable FOF A (012106) illustrates how such funds can invest in various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, both domestically and internationally [8][10]. - FOF funds lower the entry barrier for investors, with many requiring a minimum investment of just 10 yuan [10]. Group 4: Professional Management - The management of multi-asset funds requires extensive research and investment capabilities, which is supported by a team of experienced professionals at Guangfa Fund [16][17]. - The investment manager, Cao Jianwen, has over 10 years of experience in multi-asset investment and employs a rigorous risk management framework [11][13]. - Cao's funds have shown strong performance, with several ranking in the top tier of their categories, demonstrating effective risk control and return generation [13][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The global financial market is undergoing profound changes influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties [18]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a multi-asset, multi-strategy approach to navigate the complexities of the current market environment [18]. - The focus on both defensive and offensive strategies, including investments in gold and high-dividend stocks, is essential for enhancing risk resilience [18].