大商所线型低密度聚乙烯（LLDPE）、聚氯乙烯（PVC）、聚丙烯（PP）月均价期货上市已满一个 月。作为契合产业月度定价需求的创新衍生工具，三个化工品月均价期货上市以来，运行平稳有序，价 格走势贴合基本面，产业参与积极性持续提升，套期保值功能初步显现，为化工产业链企业提供了精准 的月度价格风险管理解决方案，得到市场的广泛认可。 大商所数据显示，截至11月28日收盘，三个化工品月均价期货累计运行23个交易日，市场规模稳步增 长。其中，聚丙烯月均价期货表现最为亮眼，累计成交量9.45万手、成交额30.53亿元，日均成交量4108 手，期末持仓量达7499手；线型低密度聚乙烯月均价期货累计成交量7.58万手、成交额25.92亿元，日均 成交量3296手，期末持仓5897手；聚氯乙烯月均价期货累计成交量7.34万手、成交额17.32亿元，日均成 交量3192手，期末持仓6635手。三个化工品月均价期货合约持仓量均呈现逐日递增态势。 期货日报记者在采访中了解到，明日控股也尝试利用月均价期货开展套保操作，比如针对远期交付的 PP共聚品种，通过PP2602F空单来保护。"PP2602F合约今年12月底之前，主要参考PP26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of monthly average price futures for LLDPE, PVC, and PP on October 28 marks a significant development in China's chemical industry, providing new risk management tools for enterprises and enhancing market participation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Participation and Performance - The first day of trading for the three chemical products saw a total of 8,254 contracts traded, amounting to 230 million yuan, with a position of 2,468 contracts, indicating strong participation from industry players [1]. - The closing prices for the near-month contracts L2602F, V2602F, and PP2602F showed slight increases of 0.04%, 0.86%, and 0.10% respectively compared to the listing benchmark price [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Applications - Major companies such as Jingbo Petrochemical, Zhongtai International Trade, and Mingri Holdings actively participated in the first day of trading, utilizing the new futures for price hedging and risk management [2][3]. - Jingbo Petrochemical plans to use the monthly average settlement price for spot trading, which aligns with their monthly sales and average settlement model, helping to mitigate daily price fluctuations [2]. - Zhongtai International Trade employed the V2602F contract for long-term order hedging, enhancing stability in the PVC industry [3]. Group 3: Future Developments and Recommendations - The Dalian Commodity Exchange aims to optimize rules and improve market quality, making it easier for industry clients to participate and enhancing the pricing influence of Chinese chemical products [4]. - Market experts suggest that companies familiarize themselves with this innovative product, as it can significantly aid in business operations, especially in long-cycle average trading scenarios [3].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the promotion of emerging industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communication as new economic growth points [2] - The revised Cybersecurity Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, supporting AI development and enhancing risk assessment and regulation [2] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau supports domestic insurance companies to issue "catastrophe bonds" in the Hong Kong market, which are linked to natural disaster risks [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, ensuring that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth targets [2] - The latest tax data shows a 229.8% year-on-year increase in the number of outbound travelers claiming tax refunds from January to September, with a 97.4% increase in refund amounts [2] - The digital RMB ecosystem has been preliminarily established, with a cumulative transaction amount of 14.2 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025 [2] Group 3 - Ganfeng Lithium reported a third-quarter revenue of 6.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.10%, and a net profit of 557 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 364.02% [3][8] - The public fund industry saw significant growth in the third quarter, with an increase of 2.23 trillion yuan, bringing the total scale to over 35 trillion yuan [3][8] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade covers nine areas, including digital economy and green economy [2]

Core Insights - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has officially listed monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene as of October 28, increasing the total number of futures tools to 26, with 10 in the chemical sector [1][3] Group 1 - Monthly average futures are contracts settled based on the average price of the underlying asset over a month [3] - The introduction of these three chemical monthly average futures meets the growing market demand for refined risk management tools due to frequent price fluctuations in plastic chemical products [3] - This listing marks a historic breakthrough in the construction of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's chemical derivatives system, enhancing its ability to serve the real economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene at Dalian Commodity Exchange marks a significant development in China's petrochemical industry, providing diversified risk management tools and enhancing the integration of the industry with the futures market [1][2][6]. Industry Insights - The introduction of monthly average futures is expected to address the increasing demand for flexible and efficient pricing tools in the petrochemical sector, which is crucial for managing price volatility and supporting high-quality industry development [4][5]. - The new futures products will help establish a transparent and fair monthly average pricing signal system, aligning with international pricing practices and enhancing China's influence in global plastic trade [5][6]. Market Development - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has expanded its futures offerings to 26 products, with 10 specifically in the chemical sector, reflecting a robust development of its derivatives system and an enhanced capacity to serve the real economy [6]. - The launch of these futures is seen as a strategic move to improve the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the market economy and to foster deeper cooperation between the exchange and the petrochemical industry [2][3].

Core Insights - The launch of the first monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene marks a significant development in China's commodity futures market [1][2] - These products are essential in the petrochemical industry, with China being a major producer and consumer, projected to produce 27.91 million tons, 23.44 million tons, and 34.76 million tons respectively in 2024 [1] - The introduction of these futures aims to provide more stable long-term procurement prices to mitigate frequent price fluctuations in the plastic chemical sector [1] Industry Impact - The listing of these monthly average price futures offers diversified and refined risk management tools for the petrochemical industry [2] - It is expected to strengthen the integration of the industry with the futures market, contributing to the healthy and stable development of the petrochemical sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of monthly average price futures for three chemical products fills a gap in domestic average price risk management tools, facilitating smoother price fluctuations and better risk management for enterprises in international trade [4][5]. Group 1: Monthly Average Price Futures - The monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting from October 28, 2025, with night trading sessions [5]. - The listing benchmark prices for the contracts are based on the settlement prices on the listing date [5][7]. Group 2: Market Trends for Polyethylene and Polypropylene - The bearish trend for plastic and polypropylene futures continues, driven by declining cost support, new supply capacity, and insufficient demand [8]. - The price decline began in late November to early December 2024, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and subsequent destocking cycles [8]. - Despite a rebound in oil prices, the prices of plastic and polypropylene futures face technical pressure and have entered a downward trend again by the end of August [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - For polyethylene, rapid growth in domestic production due to capacity expansion is expected to persist throughout the year, with seasonal demand peaks in October [9]. - In polypropylene, while there is still strong demand in October, the seasonal demand decline is anticipated in November and December, with new capacity pressures expected to ease in the fourth quarter [9]. - Overall, both polyethylene and polypropylene prices are expected to remain in a bearish market, with short-term support from demand and geopolitical factors, but fundamental supply-demand pressures will likely lead to a "rise then fall" price trend [9]. Group 4: PVC Market Analysis - The PVC market is characterized by high supply and weak demand, with social inventory at historical highs [13]. - Despite ongoing losses in the PVC industry, some manufacturers are increasing production, with a projected increase of 220,000 tons this year [16]. - The PVC market faces potential export pressures due to anti-dumping measures from India, which could significantly impact future exports [17][18].

Group 1: Domestic Policy Developments - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China concluded, marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" phase with a focus on high-quality development and significant improvements in technological self-reliance [11][12][14] - The session emphasized the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, aligning with the "Four Stabilities" approach to maintain economic stability [12][14] - The session proposed twelve specific goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan," including modernizing industries, enhancing technological independence, and expanding the domestic market [12][14][15] Group 2: Financial Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a collective rise in major indices, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 8% and the CSI 100 rising by 3.57% during the week [4] - The central bank conducted a net fund injection of 198.1 billion yuan, maintaining stable liquidity in the market [5] - The issuance of new policy financial tools has exceeded half of the planned total, indicating a proactive approach to financial support [5][18] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The post-holiday period saw a rebound in non-ferrous metals, while crude oil prices experienced a slight recovery [5] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasized the need for industry self-discipline amid fluctuating commodity prices [5] - The Fourth Plenary Session's focus on promoting high-quality development in real estate is expected to influence commodity markets positively [5][12] Group 4: International Trade and Relations - The fifth round of trade talks between China and the U.S. commenced in Malaysia, with both sides expressing constructive dialogue on key issues such as rare earths and agricultural products [22][23] - The ongoing discussions are seen as a step towards stabilizing the economic relationship between the two countries, with potential agreements anticipated during the upcoming APEC meeting [23]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming launch of monthly average futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene is expected to provide more precise hedging tools for companies, addressing pricing and hedging misalignments, and promoting a more stable and resilient plastic industry in China, especially amid significant growth in production capacity and exports [1] Market Application and Demand - The average pricing model has established a foundation in the plastic industry, particularly in long-term trade agreements and stable supply chain collaborations, with increasing adoption [2] - The global plastic industry has a pressing need to smooth price volatility risks and stabilize trade costs, leading to the widespread use of average pricing models in international trade [2][3] - The demand for stable pricing models has intensified due to geopolitical factors, oil price fluctuations, and supply-demand structure adjustments, making the launch of monthly average futures timely [3][5] Risk Management and Pricing Stability - Monthly average futures can alleviate the impact of daily price volatility, allowing companies to focus on long-term production planning and cost control, which is a pressing need for the industry [4] - The introduction of monthly average futures is expected to complement existing pricing models, enabling production companies to manage price risks more accurately and enhancing China's role in shaping international trade pricing rules [4][8] Export Growth and International Trade - China's polypropylene export volume has significantly increased from 430,000 tons in 2020 to an expected 2.35 million tons in 2024, indicating a sustained growth trend [5] - The expansion of China's plastic export scale highlights the potential application of monthly average futures in cross-border trade, facilitating a transition from "price following" to "price setting" [5][6] - The combination of monthly average futures with hedging tools can create a comprehensive risk management solution for companies facing price and exchange rate fluctuations in export markets [6][7] Global Pricing Influence - The launch of monthly average futures is seen as a key to establishing a fair pricing benchmark that aligns with international average trade practices, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border transactions [7][8] - If widely adopted, monthly average futures could lead to the formation of a new international pricing node based on "China's monthly average futures," significantly enhancing China's international pricing power in the plastic industry [8]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene on October 28 is expected to enhance risk management and pricing strategies across the plastic industry, addressing the gap in current pricing mechanisms and trade risk management [1][2][3]. Industry Insights - The new monthly average price futures will allow for more effective risk management, transitioning from "point-to-point" to "face-to-face" strategies, thereby reflecting the average price over a month rather than a specific point in time [1][2]. - This tool is anticipated to smooth out short-term market fluctuations and align with the emerging monthly settlement model in spot trading, providing a more accurate reflection of overall price levels [1][2]. - Companies like Mingri Holdings have already successfully utilized existing futures tools for hedging in domestic spot trading, but face challenges in import trading due to reliance on international monthly average pricing [1][2]. Benefits for Different Stakeholders - Upstream producers can embed "monthly average hedging costs" into their pricing models, enhancing their appeal to large clients by locking in profits without worrying about specific selling points [4]. - Midstream traders can stabilize profits by locking in price differentials between upstream and downstream, moving away from the traditional model of speculating on price movements [4]. - Downstream processing companies, especially smaller firms, will benefit directly from the new futures, allowing them to stabilize processing profits and manage raw material costs more effectively [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The monthly average price futures are expected to facilitate a shift from "rough pricing" to "refined pricing" within the plastic industry, promoting long-term contracts and reducing negotiation costs [3][5]. - The introduction of this tool is likely to encourage more companies to participate in the market, enhancing the overall pricing signals and risk management capabilities within the industry [6].