机构：西部证券 研究员：田地/肖燕南/于佳琦 根据公司半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入/归母净利润分别为256/76 亿元，分别同比+16%/+22%；公司在 低基数与舆论好转下加大费用投放力度，销售实现回升，收入实现双位数增长；规模效应下利润增速快 于收入。 水产品逐步恢复，茶饮料快速扩张。分品类看，2025H1 茶/水/功能性食品/果汁饮料收入分别为 101/94/29/26 亿元，分别同增20%/11%/14%/21%，分别占比39%/38%/11%/10%，其中，包装饮用水产品 受去年舆情影响逐步消退；今年4 月东方树叶开启"开盖赢奖"活动，同时配合新广告在全国各大城市地 铁、户外候车亭等进行投放，市场份额持续提升，茶食品整体实现双位数增长；6 月公司推出碳酸茶新 品"冰茶"，以100%真茶叶萃取且不使用茶粉。功能饮料方面，上半年公司借助社媒加强与消费者互 动，推进尖叫与维他命水的年轻化举措。 盈利能力持续提高，管理费用率持续优化。2025H1 公司毛利率/净利率分别为60.32%/29.75%，分别同 比+1.54/1.61pcts，今年上半年毛利率同比提升主要系PET、纸箱及白糖等原材料采购价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [5]. Core Views - The company has shown a solid recovery in operations, with revenue and net profit for H1 2025 reaching 25.6 billion and 7.6 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16% and 22% [10][2]. - The company is expected to maintain its leadership in the beverage industry due to strong R&D capabilities, brand recognition, and refined channel management, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 at 50.5 billion, 57 billion, and 63.3 billion CNY, respectively [37][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company achieved revenue of 25.6 billion CNY in H1 2025, a 16% increase year-on-year, while net profit rose to 7.6 billion CNY, up 22% [10][2]. - The growth was supported by increased marketing expenditures and improved public sentiment, leading to a recovery in sales [10][2]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from tea, water, functional foods, and juice drinks was 10.1 billion, 9.4 billion, 2.9 billion, and 2.6 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 11%, 14%, and 21% [12][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its tea beverage segment, particularly with the launch of new products and promotional activities [12][10]. Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 60.32% and 29.75%, respectively, reflecting improvements due to lower raw material costs and reduced advertising and logistics expenses [19][2]. - Compared to 2018, the gross margin and net margin have increased by 6.98 and 12.16 percentage points, respectively, indicating a sustained improvement in profitability [19][2]. Future Projections - Revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% for revenue and 20% for net profit from 2017 to 2024 [10][2]. - The company anticipates continued growth in its water and tea beverage segments, with expected revenue growth rates of 13% and 23% for 2025-2027 [37][35]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a leader in the beverage industry, benefiting from established brand recognition and channel barriers [37][2]. - The report highlights the company's strong market presence and competitive advantages in product innovation and marketing strategies [29][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) with a target price of HKD 43.35, based on a current price of HKD 34.10 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the bottled water segment is under short-term pressure, but recovery is expected as the peak season approaches. The company is also seeing growth in its tea beverage segment [1][8]. - The company reported a revenue of CNY 428.96 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.54%, and a net profit of CNY 121.23 billion, up 0.36% year-on-year. The second half of 2024 saw a revenue decline of 6.7% [8][11]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong market position in bottled water and the ongoing high growth trend in its tea beverage business, supported by innovative product offerings and effective marketing strategies [8][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 493.18 billion, CNY 553.39 billion, and CNY 604.03 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 14.97%, 12.21%, and 9.15% [3][11]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Projected net profits for the same years are CNY 141.25 billion, CNY 161.30 billion, and CNY 179.16 billion, with growth rates of 16.51%, 14.19%, and 11.07% [3][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 1.26, CNY 1.43, and CNY 1.59, respectively [3][11]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to be 37.23% in 2025, 36.34% in 2026, and 34.75% in 2027 [3][11]. - **Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio**: The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 31.63 in 2024 to 21.41 in 2027 [3][11]. Business Segment Performance - **Bottled Water**: Revenue for 2024 was CNY 159.52 billion, down 21.3% year-on-year. The volume is expected to recover with a projected growth of 18% in 2025 [11][12]. - **Tea Beverages**: Revenue increased by 32.3% to CNY 167.45 billion in 2024, with continued strong growth expected [11][12]. - **Functional Beverages**: Revenue for 2024 was CNY 40.85 billion, with a growth forecast of 15.6% for 2025 [11][12]. - **Juice Beverages**: Revenue was CNY 11.82 billion in 2024, with a decline expected in the coming years [11][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The report notes that the company is well-positioned in the bottled water market and is expected to recover market share as the impact of recent controversies diminishes. The tea beverage segment continues to thrive, particularly in the no-sugar category [8][9][10]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its product matrix to align with health trends, which is expected to support long-term growth [8][9].