周三亚洲交易时段，美元/加元汇率小幅攀升至1.3855附近，整体波动有限，市场交投谨慎。 投资者正等待北美时段加拿大央行与美联储的政策声明，预计在此之前汇价将维持窄幅整理，市场对两 大央行政策路径可能出现的分化保持高度敏感。 美元/加元近期走势已反映市场对货币政策分化的预期。若美联储如期降息并释放鸽派信号，而加拿大 央行保持中性立场，加元可能获得短期支撑。 反之，若美联储对经济展望优于预期，或点阵图显示未来降息可能放缓，美元有望重新走强。此外，原 油价格波动、全球风险情绪及贸易协议进展也将持续影响加元。 在两大央行的政策声明出炉前，市场整体处于观望状态。投资者正密切关注即将发布的声明与经济预 测，试图从中捕捉有关利率走向、通胀形势以及经济前景的有效信号。这些信息预计将为美元/加元下 一阶段的走势定下基调。此次会议结果，很可能成为引发年末汇市波动的关键因素。 美元指数目前在99.25附近徘徊，前一交易日已录得上涨。支撑美元上行的主要因素是周二公布的美国 10月职位空缺数据，该数据小幅上升至767万，高于市场预期的720万。这一结果增强了市场对美国劳动 力市场复苏的信心，为美元提供了支撑。 根据CMEFedWat ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3794, showing a slight decline of 0.03%, after a previous increase of 0.17% to close at 1.3795 [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, citing a softening labor market as a reason for this "risk management" rate cut [1] - The Bank of Canada also reduced its rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, indicating a willingness to maintain an accommodative stance due to weak employment and reduced exports [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD exchange rate has recently retreated from a peak of 1.3924 to a low of 1.3725, establishing a support level around 1.3722 [2] - A trading range has been identified between 1.3720 and 1.3900, with the current position indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears [2] - Key support levels to watch include 1.3722/1.3725 and 1.3539, while resistance levels are at 1.3811, 1.3899, and 1.3924 [2]

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Indicators - The USD/CAD exchange rate fell to around 1.3950 due to a weakening dollar, with upcoming US retail sales data and PPI being focal points [1] - In March 2025, the total value of Canadian building permits decreased by 4.1% month-on-month to CAD 12.88 billion (approximately USD 9.24 billion), marking the largest decline since October of the previous year and exceeding economists' expectations of a 1.2% drop [1] - Year-on-year, the total value of building permits in March increased by 15.0%, with non-residential permits down 14.5% to CAD 4.23 billion, primarily affected by declines in Ontario and British Columbia [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment - The upward momentum of the Canadian dollar was reversed due to falling commodity prices, which weakened its strength [2] - Oil prices dropped by 1%, copper prices fell by 0.25%, and gold faced pressure due to weak US inflation data and easing trade tensions [3] - The lack of significant economic data from Canada and the US may continue to anchor the Canadian dollar at lower trend levels [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Key support levels for the Canadian dollar are at the psychological level of 1.3900, the 10-day moving average at 1.3883, and the May 8 low at 1.3814 [5] - Resistance levels are identified at the Wednesday high of 1.3940, the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3963, and the 200-day moving average at 1.4019 [6] - A potential double bottom pattern is forming, but a breakthrough above 1.4015 is needed to confirm an upward trend towards the 1.4160-1.4200 range [6] - If the exchange rate falls below the 1.3900 support, particularly below the critical level of 1.3750, it may accelerate downward to the 1.3650-1.3700 range [7]

Group 1 - The Canadian labor market data shows a faster-than-expected increase in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, impacting the USD/CAD exchange rate [1] - The USD/CAD pair is attempting to maintain its position around 1.3940, supported by progress in US-China trade negotiations held in Switzerland [1] - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen described the two-day talks with Chinese officials in Geneva as productive, with expectations for more details to be released [1] Group 2 - Despite ongoing recession concerns, recent data suggests that the US economy is more likely to experience a slowdown rather than a full contraction, with no signs of accelerating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about potential stagflation, with warnings from President Michael Barr about tariff increases disrupting supply chains [1] - Technical indicators such as MACD and CCI suggest short-term momentum accumulation for the USD/CAD exchange rate, although there may be a risk of a pullback due to the CCI entering the overbought territory [2]