周五（9月19日）亚洲时段，美元/加元窄幅震荡，最新美元兑加元汇率报1.3794，跌幅0.03%，上一交 易日美元兑加元走势先扬后抑，美市盘前回吐升幅并在1.3780一线附近企稳，最终收涨0.17%，报 1.3795。 近期美元对加元汇率上探1.3924未果后回撤，最低回踩至1.3725一线，与下轨1.3722形成动态+静态共振 支撑；更早前在1.3539构筑的阶段性低点，定义了今年6月以来的上行通道底边。若以1.3720~1.3900划 定箱体，当前点位位于箱体偏下四分位，显示多空双方在"下沿之上、均线之下"的拉锯。 下方首看1.3722/1.3725（布林下轨/近端低点）与1.3685~1.3690的密集成交区，进一步是1.3539的关键低 点；上方依次关注1.3811（布林中轨/均值磁力位）、1.3899（布林上轨）以及1.3924（近期高点）。在 1.3811未被有效收复前，均值压制仍在；若以收盘价站上中轨并放量，才算触发"均值上移+带宽扩 张"的量能突破雏形。 加拿大央行周三同样降息25bp至2.5%，并强调在就业疲弱、出口锐减且通胀大体贴近2%目标的环境 下，保持对进一步宽松的开放态度。前瞻定价方 ...

Group 1: Currency Exchange and Economic Indicators - The USD/CAD exchange rate fell to around 1.3950 due to a weakening dollar, with upcoming US retail sales data and PPI being focal points [1] - In March 2025, the total value of Canadian building permits decreased by 4.1% month-on-month to CAD 12.88 billion (approximately USD 9.24 billion), marking the largest decline since October of the previous year and exceeding economists' expectations of a 1.2% drop [1] - Year-on-year, the total value of building permits in March increased by 15.0%, with non-residential permits down 14.5% to CAD 4.23 billion, primarily affected by declines in Ontario and British Columbia [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment - The upward momentum of the Canadian dollar was reversed due to falling commodity prices, which weakened its strength [2] - Oil prices dropped by 1%, copper prices fell by 0.25%, and gold faced pressure due to weak US inflation data and easing trade tensions [3] - The lack of significant economic data from Canada and the US may continue to anchor the Canadian dollar at lower trend levels [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Key support levels for the Canadian dollar are at the psychological level of 1.3900, the 10-day moving average at 1.3883, and the May 8 low at 1.3814 [5] - Resistance levels are identified at the Wednesday high of 1.3940, the upper Bollinger Band at 1.3963, and the 200-day moving average at 1.4019 [6] - A potential double bottom pattern is forming, but a breakthrough above 1.4015 is needed to confirm an upward trend towards the 1.4160-1.4200 range [6] - If the exchange rate falls below the 1.3900 support, particularly below the critical level of 1.3750, it may accelerate downward to the 1.3650-1.3700 range [7]

然而，美联储（Fed）官员已对潜在的滞胀表示担忧。行长迈克尔·巴尔警告称，提高关税可能会扰乱供 应链。 从日线图来看，布林带显示，美元兑加元汇率已经从上轨1.4186回落，但仍处于中轨1.3909附近，表明 上行趋势并未完全结束。 MACD指标显示，DIFF线与DEA线目前交叉向上，MACD柱状图由负转正，表明短期动能正在积累， 有利于美元对加元汇率反弹。同时，RSI指标处于48附近的中性区域，并没有出现明显的超买或超卖信 号，这意味着汇价仍有进一步上行的空间。 值得注意的是，CCI指标近期从超卖区域(-130)急速反弹至目前的190.8837水平，已经进入超买区域，这 可能预示短期内存在回调风险。 周一（5月12日）亚市盘中，加拿大劳动力市场数据公布后，美元/加元升至接近1.3920。加拿大失业率 以快于预期的速度加速上升至6.9%。美元兑加元正试图连续第四个交易日保持其位置，美元/加元徘徊 在1.3940左右。该货币对得到支持，因为随着周末在瑞士举行的美中贸易谈判取得进展，美元（USD） 走强。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特将与中国官员在日内瓦进行的为期两天的会谈描述为富有成效，预计将在 周一上午的简报中公 ...