专题：2026年度投资策略|顶级基金公司、基金经理展望马年投资机会 少数派投资 上证指数的历史高点是2007年10月16日的6124.04点，至今已经过去了十八年了。股民基民一边看着美 国近20年的大牛市，一边对大A股的长牛翘首以盼，一等就是十八年。当年勇敢入市的年轻人，现在已 经两鬓斑白。如今中国股市集齐了五张王牌，有望推动本轮牛市创出历史新高。 一、利率降低 —— 凸显股票市场价值 中国十年期国债收益率1.9%，对比沪深300指数平均分红收益率2.5%，已经超过了长期国债收益。而上 市公司净利润中平均只有35%拿出来分红，利润的大头还留存在公司。对比一下银行理财年化收益 1.5%，一年期存款利率0.95%。股票变得很有吸引力。 对比一下美国市场，标普500指数的市盈率是25倍，分红收益率1.2%，美国十年期国债收益率4.14%。 美国当前是高利率，利率比中国高一倍多，分红收益率比中国低50%，市盈率还比中国高70%。中国股 票比美国股票更有性价比。 二、资金溢出 —— 大量资金缺少投向 过去二十年吸纳投资资金最多的是楼市。随着楼价见顶回落，楼市已经失去了吸纳投资资金的能力。相 对应的房地产信托，也没有了。 ...

Core Viewpoint - 博时基金 has appointed Chen Yu as the new general manager following the resignation of former chairman Jiang Xiangyang, marking the establishment of a new leadership team known as "Zhang-Chen Pair" [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Chen Yu has a strong background in the financial sector, having held management positions in various institutions including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Post Life Insurance, and joined 博时基金 in September [1] - Zhang Dong, the new chairman, has over 30 years of experience within the 招商系, having worked in multiple departments at 招商银行 [1] Group 2: Corporate Structure and Strategy - 博时基金, 招商银行, and 招商证券 are all second-tier subsidiaries of 招商局集团, with 招商金控 serving as the financial holding platform [2] - The recent trend in asset management company leadership appointments reflects a "group-oriented" and "internal" approach, with management possessing insurance system experience being beneficial for stable operations [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, 博时基金 manages 745 funds with a total asset scale of 1.14 trillion yuan, primarily focusing on fixed-income products [2] - In the first half of 2025, 博时基金 reported a revenue of 2.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, while net profit saw a slight increase of 0.13% to 763 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - The overall performance of public funds in the first half of 2025 showed positive growth, with a total net profit of 20.186 billion yuan, an increase of 30.5 million yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - A total of 36 fund companies reported positive net profit growth compared to the same period in 2024, while 23 experienced negative growth, and 7 reduced their losses [1] - The top ten fund companies by net profit saw changes in rankings, with the "billion club" increasing to five members, and 38 companies reporting net profits exceeding 10 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - E Fund maintained its leading position with a net profit of 1.877 billion yuan, up 23.84% from 1.52 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Other top performers included ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, Southern Fund, GF Fund, and Huaxia Fund, with net profits of 1.745 billion yuan, 1.194 billion yuan, 1.180 billion yuan, and 1.123 billion yuan respectively, all showing positive growth [2][3] - Several companies, including Huaxia Fund and Huatai-PB Fund, experienced declines in profitability due to reduced management fees on large ETFs, impacting their overall performance [4][5] Group 3 - Smaller fund companies showed significant performance disparities, with 12 companies reporting a decline in net profits, including China Universal Fund and Hai Fu Tong Fund, which saw declines exceeding 20% [7] - Despite some smaller firms turning losses into profits, seven companies remained in the red, with losses ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions [7] - The increasing concentration in the public fund industry is solidifying the competitive advantages of larger firms, making it challenging for smaller firms to achieve profitability without strategic adjustments [7]