存款搬家如何演绎 20250827 摘要 当前股市调整是牛市中的健康调整，上证指数在突破 3,700 点后需确认 新的箱体，该点位或构成强支撑，国内外环境未见显著风险，中美谈判 及元首访华预期支撑市场。 宏观和市场流动性宽松有所回摆，美联储降息交易需修正，两融融资买 入占比亦然，投资策略应从成长风格向价值风格切换，关注金九银十旺 季预期及反内卷政策受益行业。 存款搬家的本质是货币持有人结构的调整，当 M2 增速低于居民存款增 速时，存款积累增加；反之，则发生存款搬家，常见于低利率环境，资 金流向股市和资管产品。 历史上的存款搬家事件，如 07 年股改、09 年财政刺激、14-15 年货币 宽松、21 年资管新规及 23-24 年利率下行，均推动资金从银行体系流 向股市及其他投资渠道。 美国经验表明，股市上涨、利率下行及 401K 计划普及促使资金从储蓄 转向资本市场，对中国当前低利率环境下的资金流向具有借鉴意义。 Q&A 近期市场出现较大波动的原因是什么？后续市场走势如何？ 近期市场出现了自 4 月份以来最大幅度的调整，主要原因在于前期涨幅较大， 市场有整固需求。虽然有诸如中美贸易窗口期、两融降杠杆传闻、月底 ...

据中国理财网统计，截至2025年6月末，我国银行理财市场整体存续规模为30.67万亿元，较年初增长2.38%，同比上升 7.53%；上半年累计新发理财产品1.63万只，募集资金36.72万亿元，为投资者创造收益3896亿元，支持实体经济资金规模 达21万亿元。 据悉，目前五家外商控股合资理财公司中，仅施罗德交银理财和汇华理财尚未披露半年报，据中国基金报报道，汇华理财 最新规模约280亿元，较年初亦有显著增长。 高盛工银理财同期规模增至443.22亿元（2024年末为282.33亿元），增幅达56.99%；存续82只固定收益类产品中，69只以 美元募集，投资合作机构覆盖境内外头部资管机构，包括中金公司、中国人寿资产管理等。法巴农银理财规模增速最快， 从2024年底的295.60亿元跃升至487.22亿元（增幅64.82%），公募产品62只、私募产品1只。 【环球网财经综合报道】中国理财网近期数据显示，2025年上半年，三家已披露业绩的外商控股合资理财公司存续规模均 实现大幅增长。 截至2025年6月30日，贝莱德建信理财存续产品规模达362.52亿元，较2024年末（272.10亿元）增长33.23%；旗下公募 ...

由于基数低，三家外商控股合资理财公司上半年规模增幅显著超越行业平均水平。 【导读】法巴农银理财上半年规模增幅超60%，高盛工银理财、贝莱德建信理财规模亦显著增长 日前，五家外商控股合资理财公司中三家披露了理财业务2025上半年理财业务报告。数据显示，贝莱德 建信理财、高盛工银理财、法巴农银理财2025年上半年理财产品规模均显著增长，增幅最大超过60%。 法巴农银理财上半年规模增幅为64.82% 中国理财网数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，贝莱德建信理财存续产品规模为362.52亿元，公司旗下公 募产品有117只，私募产品1只。按资产类别来分，截至2025年6月30日，公司旗下固定收益类产品115 只，权益类产品2只，混合类产品1只。截至2024年12月31日，贝莱德建信理财的存续产品规模为272.10 亿元，2025年上半年规模增幅为33.23%。 截至2025年6月30日，高盛工银理财存续产品规模为443.22亿元，较去年底的282.33亿元增幅为 56.99%。截至2025年6月30日，高盛工银理财存续的82只固定收益类产品中69只固定收益类产品以美元 募集。报告期内，高盛工银理财投资合作机构包括上海光 ...

Core Insights - The asset management industry in China has evolved significantly since its inception in 1997, entering a new phase characterized by compliance, standardization, and transparency following the introduction of the "Asset Management New Regulations" [1] - A recent evaluation of asset management institutions highlights the competitive landscape across various segments, including bank wealth management, public funds, securities asset management, insurance asset management, and trusts [1] Product Performance - Smaller wealth management firms have excelled in fixed-income products, with seven out of the top ten performers in the last three years being city commercial banks or rural commercial banks [2] - Some small public funds have also performed well with pure bond funds, but their active equity funds have underperformed, indicating a need for improvement in equity investment capabilities [2] Institutional Operations - Profitability concentration among asset management institutions is increasing, with major players like China Life Asset Management, Taikang Asset Management, and Ping An Asset Management accounting for over 50% of the industry's total profit in 2024 [3] - The trust industry is facing significant challenges, with a 45.52% decline in profits from 2023 to 2024, largely due to risks in the real estate sector and industry transformation [3] Compliance Requirements - Compliance and public sentiment risks are becoming increasingly important for asset management institutions, with stricter regulations leading to a rise in penalties, particularly for trust companies [5][6] - Trust companies had the highest number of negative public sentiments in 2024, with 55 companies reporting 1,564 incidents, primarily related to underlying asset risks [6] Research and Investment Capability - The complexity of the global macro environment and domestic economic transformation has heightened the importance of research and investment capabilities, with top asset management firms leveraging strong research teams to maintain competitive advantages [8] - Enhanced research capabilities allow institutions to better analyze market trends and identify investment opportunities, which is crucial for generating excess returns [8] Technological Empowerment - Technology is increasingly empowering the entire asset management chain, from research and investment to risk control and operations, with advancements in AI and data analytics playing a key role [10][11] - Real-time risk monitoring and predictive analytics are becoming standard practices, enabling institutions to manage various risks effectively [11] Product Innovation - Asset management products are diversifying in response to evolving client needs, with innovations in themes, structures, and asset classes, including the rise of "fixed income plus" products [12][13] - The popularity of alternative assets like REITs and gold ETFs is increasing, reflecting a shift towards more diversified investment strategies [12][13] Recommendations for Competitiveness - Asset management institutions are advised to strengthen their research capabilities, integrate asset and wealth management, and leverage digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency [14][15][16] - Emphasizing multi-asset allocation and risk hedging strategies is essential to meet clients' demands for stable returns in a low-yield environment [17][18] - Developing agile internal mechanisms to respond quickly to market opportunities is critical for maintaining competitive advantages in a rapidly changing landscape [20]

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market in China has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with a total scale reaching 30.67 trillion yuan, marking a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year and a 7.53% year-on-year increase [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The average annualized yield of wealth management products in the first half of 2025 was 2.12%, generating a total return of 389.6 billion yuan for investors, which is a 14.18% increase compared to the same period last year [1][3] - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 136 million by the end of June 2025, reflecting an 8.37% growth since the beginning of the year [3] Group 2: Product Composition - Fixed income products dominate the market, with a total scale of 29.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 97.2% of the total wealth management product scale, showing a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the beginning of the year but an increase of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Open-ended wealth management products are increasingly favored, with a scale of 24.82 trillion yuan, representing 80.93% of the total, which is an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the start of the year [2] Group 3: Investor Behavior - The growth in personal pension wealth management accounts is notable, with over 1.439 million accounts opened, a 46.2% increase since the beginning of the year, and a total purchase balance of 110.36 billion yuan [1] - The decline in bank deposit rates has led investors to seek safer and more stable returns through bank wealth management products, which are perceived as lower risk [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The asset management business of securities firms in China is steadily developing towards specialization and differentiation, with a significant increase in private asset management product scale as of June 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Product Scale and Growth - As of June 2023, the total scale of private asset management products by securities firms reached 5.52 trillion yuan, marking the highest level since October of the previous year, with an increase of 551.32 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [1]. - The scale of actively managed collective asset management plans was 3.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.61% from the end of last year, while single asset management plans decreased by 5.30% to 2.43 trillion yuan [1]. - The proportion of collective asset management plans increased from 52.97% at the end of last year to 55.91% as of June 2023, indicating a shift towards enhanced active management capabilities [1]. Group 2: Product Structure - Fixed-income products remain the dominant category within private asset management products, with a scale of 4.55 trillion yuan, accounting for 82.50% of the total [2]. - Mixed-asset products and equity products accounted for 10.42% and 6.47% of the total scale, respectively, while futures and derivatives products made up 0.61% [2]. - In June 2023, newly established fixed-income products totaled 308.16 billion yuan, representing 56.29% of all new private asset management products for that month [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Competition - There is a noticeable disparity in the management scale of private asset management products among securities firms, with an average scale of 581.14 billion yuan and a median of 216.21 billion yuan as of June 2023 [3]. - The industry is witnessing increased competition, prompting firms to enhance their asset management capabilities and apply for public fund management qualifications to broaden their business scope [3]. - Companies like Shenwan Hongyuan and Nanjing Securities are focusing on accelerating transformation and innovation, enhancing active management, and optimizing product design to strengthen their competitive edge in the asset management sector [3].

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market reported a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year and a 7.53% year-on-year growth [1] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products in the first half of 2025 was 2.12%, generating a total return of 389.6 billion yuan for investors, which is a 14.18% increase compared to the same period last year [1][4] Investment Product Composition - Fixed income products dominate the market, with a total scale of 29.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 97.2% of the total wealth management products, showing a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the beginning of the year but an increase of 0.32 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cash management products have seen a contraction, with a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan, representing 25.79% of all open-ended wealth management products, down 4.38 percentage points from the beginning of the year and 7.09 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The overall scale of wealth management products is expected to exceed 33 trillion yuan by the end of the year, driven by factors such as declining deposit rates and continuous innovation from wealth management subsidiaries [5] - There is a growing demand among investors for higher yields and reduced net value volatility, with a focus on increasing equity asset allocation within wealth management products [5][6] - The personal pension wealth management product segment is emerging as a new growth engine, with a balance of over 15.16 billion yuan as of June 2025, marking a 64.7% increase since the beginning of the year [7]

在资本市场的风云变幻中，牛市的到来往往如同一剂强心针，为整个行业注入新的活力。当市场走牛， 一线券商营业部及财富管理条线人士的生存状态也随之发生显著的变化。 2024年"924"行情至今已有十个月时间，沪指回到了3600点关口震荡整固，牛市氛围已不言而喻。目前 券商财富管理业务一线人员生存和工作状态如何？《每日经济新闻》记者展开了调查。 记者发现，A先生的烦恼不是个例。在记者加入的投顾群里，时有投顾发布开户推介的海报。 财富管理条线考核与日均成交假设有很大关系 值得一提的是，上述A先生所提及销售类KPI更好完成，记者也从与券商总部人士的交流中得到了佐 证。 牛市又有牛市的烦恼？ 弱市期间，卖产品对券商分支机构而言是一件难事，但也是重要工作任务。社交媒体中曾有不少业内人 士分享，遇到某些产品难卖，不得不自掏腰包完成任务。 一头部券商分支机构人士A先生对记者表示，2025年以来，最明显变化之一是产品，尤其是权益类产品 好卖了。"经常有投资者主动咨询基金有关问题，而且普遍对权益类产品兴趣更浓。与此同时，从交易 行为来看，权益类产品之间调仓行为也非常普遍，因此申购和赎回频率都增加了。" A先生表示，在此背景下，其感到 ...

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, banks lowered deposit rates, enhancing the attractiveness of wealth management products, leading to a significant shift of funds from deposits to these products [1][2] - The issuance of net value-based wealth management products increased by over 40% year-on-year, with 10,941 products launched by 32 companies compared to 7,805 in the first half of 2024 [1][2] - The product structure is shifting towards multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches, with a notable increase in the issuance of mixed and equity products [4][5] Product Issuance - The number of newly issued products reached 10,941, with a year-on-year increase of over 40% [2] - Leading issuers include Huaxia Wealth Management with 820 products, followed by Xingyin Wealth Management and Everbright Wealth Management, each exceeding 700 products [2] - The majority of new products are public offerings, accounting for approximately 90.6%, while private offerings make up 9.4% [4] Investment Characteristics - Fixed-income products represent 97.4% of the total, a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while mixed and equity products have seen an increase in issuance [4] - The proportion of closed-end net value products has dropped significantly to 59.9%, while open-end products have risen to 40% [4] - Short-term products (less than one month) now account for 22.2% of new issuances, up 5.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] Pricing Trends - The performance benchmark for wealth management products has been on a downward trend, with one-month products dropping below 2%, recorded at 1.88% in June 2025 [7][8] - The pricing for products with longer durations has also decreased, with two to three-year products falling to 2.71% and three-year products below 2.5% [7][8] Fundraising Dynamics - The total fundraising for newly issued products in the first half of 2025 was approximately 17,579.06 billion yuan, with an average fundraising size of 2.69 million yuan, down 13.5% from 3.11 million yuan in the same period of 2024 [8][9] - Only one product exceeded 100 billion yuan in fundraising, the "Anying Xiang Fixed Income Stable Profit 14-Month Series" from Xinyin Wealth Management [9][11] - The competition for fundraising has intensified, with the top ten products raising a total of 823.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.88% [9]

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has shown a steady growth, with a total scale of 30.67 trillion yuan as of June, marking a 2.38% increase from the beginning of the year and a 7.53% year-on-year growth [1] - Fixed income products dominate the market, accounting for over 97% of the total, with a persistent preference among investors for lower-risk options [4][6] Group 1: Market Overview - As of June, the total number of newly issued wealth management products reached 16,300, raising 36.72 trillion yuan, generating returns of 389.6 billion yuan, a 14.18% increase year-on-year [1] - Fixed income products have a total scale of 29.81 trillion yuan, representing 97.2% of the overall market, despite a slight decrease of 0.13 percentage points from the beginning of the year [4] Group 2: Product Structure - The market structure is heavily skewed towards fixed income products, with mixed products at 2.51% and equity, commodity, and financial derivatives collectively accounting for less than 0.3% [4] - Major wealth management companies, such as Ping An Wealth Management and Huaxia Wealth Management, report that their fixed income product ratios exceed 99% [5] Group 3: Investor Behavior - The preference for fixed income products reflects a conservative risk appetite among investors, with 98.66% of the 136 million investors being individual investors, and 33.56% classified as conservative risk-takers [6] - The market's inclination towards fixed income products is attributed to the stability and lower risk they offer amid global economic uncertainties [6] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - The number of licensed wealth management companies has increased to 32, managing 27.48 trillion yuan, which constitutes 89.61% of the market, up 4.44 percentage points from the beginning of the year [8] - Non-licensed small banks are experiencing a significant contraction in their self-managed wealth management scale, which has decreased by 24.04% year-on-year to 3.19 trillion yuan [8] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The number of banks issuing new wealth management products has declined from 228 in 2023 to 132 in the first half of 2025, indicating a shrinking competitive landscape [8] - Small banks are advised to focus on differentiated strategies, leveraging local advantages and collaborating with wealth management companies to attract specific customer segments [9]