证券研究报告 | 产业经济点评 2026 年 01 月 05 日 产业经济点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 陈梦洁 资格编号：S0120524030002 邮箱：chenmj3＠tebon.com.cn 徐梓煜 资格编号：S0120524080004 邮箱：xuzy＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 大健康：Neuralink 放量在即， 国产脑机接口有望加快注册 产业经济点评 信息披露 分析师与研究助理简介 程强，博士，CFA，CPA，德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家。 陈梦洁，硕士，德邦证券研究所产业研究中心负责人。 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 风险提示：研发失败风险，政策风险等。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_Main] Neuralink 将在 2026 年加大脑机接口输出。2025 年 12 月 31 日，埃隆·马斯克 在社交媒体称， Neuralink 将于 2026 年启动大规模脑机接口输出，并计划转向近 乎全自动化手术。我们认为脑机接口在海外有望迎来首次爆发增 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the emerging technology of brain-computer interfaces (BCI), highlighting its potential to assist individuals with motor disabilities and its recognition as a key future industry in China's economic growth strategy [1][8]. Group 1: Technology Overview - Brain-computer interface technology captures brain signals and translates them into commands that machines can understand, enabling direct interaction between the brain and external devices [5][6]. - The technology has shown promise in various applications, including controlling vehicles and treating neurological diseases [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Development - The global BCI market is currently valued at several billion dollars and is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2030, with the medical application sector alone expected to reach $40 billion by 2030 and $145 billion by 2040 [10]. - China's unique advantages in innovation, comprehensive industrial capabilities, and a large population provide significant market opportunities for BCI development [10]. Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - Key challenges in BCI technology include the difficulty of capturing weak brain signals, understanding the complex neural data, and effectively modulating these signals for therapeutic purposes [6][8]. - Recent advancements, such as the development of a "bio-invisible" neural electrode, aim to address issues of long-term safety and signal stability [12]. Group 4: Education and Talent Development - Tianjin University has launched the first undergraduate program in BCI in China, focusing on integrating theory with practical applications to cultivate high-quality professionals for the industry [14]. Group 5: Policy Support - The Chinese government has initiated policies to promote BCI innovation and development, setting phased goals for 2027 and 2030 to guide the industry [20].

Core Insights - Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is advancing rapidly towards industrialization, with significant clinical trial results demonstrating its potential for improving the quality of life for patients with severe disabilities [1][2] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for BCI development in China, supported by government initiatives and a clear roadmap for industry growth [1][5] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The second-generation BCI product released by Shanghai Ladder Medical Technology Co., Ltd. has increased the number of signal channels from 64 to 256, enhancing interaction efficiency by approximately 60% [2] - Breakthroughs in core components and decoding algorithms have been achieved, with improvements in the stability and integration of BCI systems, leading to the development of wireless, passive, and miniaturized systems [2] - AI technology has significantly improved decoding accuracy, enabling precise interpretation of users' motor intentions [2] Group 2: Application Scenarios - Invasive BCIs are primarily focused on medical applications, with numerous clinical cases addressing spinal cord injuries and stroke rehabilitation, while initial explorations in areas like blindness recovery and addiction treatment are underway [3] - Non-invasive BCIs are being deployed in consumer and industrial sectors, with devices already in mass production for applications such as fatigue monitoring and emotional recognition [3] Group 3: Policy and Industry Support - The establishment of the "Brain Intelligence World" industrial cluster in Shanghai aims to foster collaboration among nearly 20 teams and companies, with an initial investment of 1.2 billion yuan [4] - A collaborative effort among seven government departments aims to enhance BCI innovation capabilities by 2030, with new pricing projects and medical device standards being introduced [5] - The BCI market in China is expanding, with over 200 companies currently operating in the sector, and projections indicate the market could exceed 3.8 billion yuan by 2025 [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of forward-looking strategies for future industries, positioning BCI as a potential new economic growth driver [5] - Experts believe that the next five years will be crucial for the BCI industry, particularly in areas with urgent social needs and clear clinical value [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements in invasive brain-computer interface (BCI) technology led by researchers Zhao Zhengtuo and Li Xue, showcasing their successful clinical trials that enable paralyzed patients to control devices using their thoughts, thus improving their quality of life [1][3][17]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Achievements - The second clinical trial demonstrated that a patient with high-level paraplegia could control a smart wheelchair and a robotic dog using only their thoughts, marking a breakthrough in BCI applications [1][4][17]. - The patient, who suffered from spinal cord injury, was able to control electronic devices like computers and tablets within 2-3 weeks of training after receiving the BCI implant [5][17]. - The technology evolved from controlling virtual devices to interacting with physical objects, allowing the patient to navigate real-world environments [6][7]. Group 2: Research and Development Approach - Zhao and Li emphasize the importance of addressing real-life problems faced by patients rather than merely showcasing technological capabilities [8][10]. - Their research approach has shifted from basic research to focusing on practical applications that enhance patients' daily lives, driven by the needs expressed by patients [9][10]. - The team has developed a flexible electrode that is less invasive, allowing for easier implantation compared to competitors, which is crucial for patient safety and comfort [14][15]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Vision - The researchers envision that BCI technology will not only assist patients with mobility issues but could also be applied in areas such as artificial sensory restoration and treatment of neurological disorders in the future [19][20]. - They aim for BCI devices to become as ubiquitous as smartphones, ensuring that anyone in need can benefit from this technology [20][21]. - The team is committed to continuous improvement and adaptation of their technology to meet evolving patient needs and to foster collaboration with various stakeholders in the healthcare and technology sectors [16][19].

Core Insights - The article highlights the advancements in invasive brain-computer interface (BCI) technology led by researchers Zhao Zhengtuo and Li Xue, showcasing their successful clinical trials that enable paralyzed patients to control smart devices using their thoughts [2][16]. Group 1: Clinical Trials and Patient Outcomes - The second clinical trial demonstrated that a patient with high-level paraplegia could control a smart wheelchair and a robotic dog, significantly improving their quality of life [2][16]. - The patient initially trained to control electronic devices like a computer cursor and tablet, but the focus shifted to interacting with the physical world, expanding their living boundaries [3][4]. - The team observed a neural mechanism where the patient's brain activity became more efficient over time, allowing for seamless control of external devices [4][5]. Group 2: Research and Development Approach - The research team emphasizes solving real-life problems for patients rather than merely showcasing technology, focusing on practical applications like wheelchair mobility and robotic assistance [6][8]. - The development process involves close collaboration with clinical settings, ensuring that the technology meets the actual needs of patients [9][10]. - The team has adopted a "lab-to-bedside" approach, refining their technology based on real-world testing and patient feedback [9][10]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The BCI system developed by the team features flexible electrodes that are less invasive, allowing for implantation through a small puncture, which minimizes trauma [13][14]. - The technology aims to integrate with common household devices, making it accessible and beneficial for a broader range of patients [15][16]. - The researchers are focused on creating a universal interface that allows various smart devices to connect with the BCI system, enhancing its utility [15]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Vision - The team envisions that BCI technology will evolve to assist not only patients with mobility issues but also in areas like sensory restoration and treatment of neurological disorders [18][19]. - They aim for BCI devices to become as ubiquitous as smartphones, ensuring that anyone in need can benefit from the technology [19][20]. - The researchers are optimistic about the long-term potential of BCI, predicting significant advancements in the next decade that will integrate artificial intelligence with human cognitive functions [20].

Core Insights - The recent clinical trial by the Chinese Academy of Sciences has successfully demonstrated a brain-computer interface (BCI) that allows a quadriplegic patient to control a smart wheelchair and a robotic dog using only their thoughts, marking a significant advancement in rehabilitation technology [2][4]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The BCI technology aims to establish a direct communication channel between the brain and external devices, overcoming previous challenges in integrating technology into patients' daily lives [4]. - The research team achieved a breakthrough from "2D interaction" to "3D expansion," enhancing the practical application of BCI in real-world scenarios [4]. - A series of technical breakthroughs were made, including the development of high-compression, high-fidelity neural data compression technology and a hybrid decoding model that improves brain control performance by over 15% even in noisy environments [4]. Group 2: Clinical Application and Future Prospects - The clinical trial, set to continue until 2025, is a collaboration between the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Fudan University Huashan Hospital, and related enterprises, indicating a strong commitment to advancing BCI technology [4]. - The introduction of "neural manifold alignment technology" allows for the extraction of stable features representing core intentions from variable neural signals, enhancing the system's reliability in everyday use [4]. - The ongoing development of BCI technology is supported by national policies and ethical guidelines, paving the way for a safer and more effective integration of BCI into clinical applications [5].

Group 1: Transformer Industry - The U.S. market is experiencing a transformer shortage due to electricity constraints impacting AI computing power expansion, with delivery times for transformers increasing from 30-60 weeks to 115-130 weeks, and large transformers taking 2.3-4 years [1] - North America is projected to face a hard electricity capacity and energy shortfall by 2026/2027, necessitating accelerated power and grid construction, with transformer demand expected to grow at an annual rate of 30% [1] - Chinese transformer companies are positioned to fill the gap in North America due to their complete supply chain, cost advantages, and UL/CSA certifications, leading to significant growth in overseas orders for leading firms [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface - A significant breakthrough has been achieved in the second invasive brain-computer interface clinical trial in China, enabling users to control devices with their thoughts at speeds comparable to typical smartphone and computer usage [2][3] - The brain-computer interface industry in China is expected to see substantial development by 2025, with a market size projected to exceed 5.5 billion yuan by 2027, and global medical applications potentially reaching $40 billion to $145 billion by 2030-2040 [3] Group 3: Edge AI - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is set to hold a major technology conference on December 18-19, showcasing new AI hardware and tools, which is expected to drive significant growth in the edge AI market [4] - The edge AI market in China is anticipated to grow from under 200 billion yuan in 2023 to over 1.9 trillion yuan by 2028, with an annual growth rate of 58% driven by hardware improvements, application expansion, and policy support [4] Group 4: Sodium Battery - CATL's sodium-ion battery is expected to begin mass production by December 2025, featuring a high energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a lifespan exceeding 10,000 cycles, marking a significant advancement in battery technology [5][6] - The sodium battery industry is transitioning from R&D to commercialization, with 2026 being a critical year for scaling production and shipments [6] Group 5: Aircraft Maintenance - The aircraft maintenance industry in Hainan is experiencing unprecedented growth due to the benefits of the free trade port policy, with maintenance capacity expected to reach around 700 aircraft annually [7] - Hainan's unique geographical advantages and policy incentives are attracting foreign airlines for aircraft maintenance, potentially saving them 10% to 15% in maintenance costs [7] Group 6: Emotional Interaction Robots - Sichuan's humanoid robot "AIQ," designed for emotional interaction, has been launched, utilizing advanced emotional computing technology to enhance human-robot communication [8] - The introduction of "AIQ" is expected to draw significant market attention due to its innovative approach to emotional interaction and communication [8] Group 7: Phosphate Fertilizer - A meeting organized by key agricultural associations in China emphasized the importance of maintaining high production rates of phosphate fertilizers to ensure supply stability and price control [9] - The rising sulfur prices have impacted the phosphate fertilizer market, with significant price increases observed in recent months [9] Group 8: Hard Disk Drives - The mechanical hard disk market is experiencing a price increase of approximately 4% in Q4, the largest rise in eight quarters, driven by renewed demand from the PC market [10] - The shift towards domestic CPUs and operating systems in China is boosting HDD installation demand as users seek reliable long-term data storage solutions [10] Group 9: Satellite Internet - The UK has approved a new regulatory framework for mobile satellite services, allowing mobile network operators to partner with satellite operators for direct satellite connectivity [11] - The satellite communication sector is transitioning from specialized equipment to mainstream applications, with significant potential in emergency services and outdoor operations [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the advancements in brain-machine interface (BMI) technology, highlighting the successful clinical trials that enable patients with high-level paralysis to control smart devices and interact with the physical world using their thoughts. This represents a significant leap from controlling electronic devices to engaging with real-world applications [3][5]. Summary by Sections Breakthroughs in the Second Clinical Trial - The second clinical trial showcased a comprehensive breakthrough, transitioning from 2D control of electronic devices to 3D interaction with physical objects, thus integrating technology into daily life [5][6]. Patient Experience - The second patient, who suffered from high-level paralysis due to spinal cord injury, described the control experience as intuitive, likening it to controlling a character in a video game without conscious effort. The system demonstrated stable signal transmission with minimal delay [6][7]. Technical Innovations - Key technical advancements include: - Development of high-compression, high-fidelity neural data compression technology, enhancing brain control performance by 15% to 20% even in noisy environments [7]. - Introduction of neural manifold alignment technology and online recalibration techniques [7]. - Reduction of end-to-end latency from signal acquisition to command execution to under 100 milliseconds, improving the fluidity of control [9]. Future Industry Path - The article emphasizes the importance of collaboration with external smart ecosystems, such as electric wheelchairs and robotic devices, to realize the practical applications of BMIs. This collaboration aims to enhance patient quality of life through a win-win model [13]. - Short-term (within three years) goals include scaling applications for motor and speech function restoration, while mid-term (within five years) objectives focus on sensory restoration and precise control of neurological disorders. Long-term (around ten years) aspirations involve creating minimally invasive systems that could lead to consumer applications [13][14]. Integration with Artificial Intelligence - The relationship between BMIs and AI is categorized into three levels: - "AI for BMI": Utilizing AI algorithms to decode complex neural signals [13]. - "BMI with AI": BMIs working alongside autonomous AI entities for strategic and tactical collaboration [13]. - "Fusion": A potential future where biological and artificial neural networks are deeply coupled, allowing for seamless control of devices as if they were natural limbs [14].

Core Insights - The clinical trial of the third brain-computer interface (BCI) patient has been completed, showcasing advancements in controlling physical devices through thought [1][2] - The second case represents a significant breakthrough, transitioning from 2D control of electronic devices to 3D interaction with physical objects, enhancing the patient's ability to engage with the real world [2][3] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The research team developed a mixed decoding model that improves brain control performance by 15% to 20% even in noisy environments [3] - A custom communication protocol reduced the end-to-end latency of the BCI system to under 100 milliseconds, providing a seamless control experience for the patient [3] - The goal is to create a universal controller that can translate brain commands into control signals for various smart devices, enhancing user interaction [3] Group 2: Future Industry Path - The integration of BCI technology with external smart devices like electric wheelchairs and robotic dogs is crucial for enhancing patient quality of life [6] - In the short term (within three years), BCI applications for motor and speech function restoration are expected to scale, while mid-term (within five years) breakthroughs in sensory restoration and mental health conditions are anticipated [6] - Long-term (around ten years), highly minimally invasive systems may lead to new medical and consumer applications, with BCI technology deeply integrated with artificial intelligence [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging potential of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) in consumer healthcare over the next five to ten years, highlighting significant advancements and investments in the field, particularly in the context of medical applications and the integration of AI technologies [5][10]. Group 1: Industry Developments - In mid-2025, notable advancements in BCIs include Neuralink's $650 million funding round, raising its valuation to $9 billion, and expanding its applications to include speech and vision restoration for patients [5]. - Synchron secured $200 million in Series D funding, while Paradromics received FDA approval for clinical trials focused on speech function restoration [6]. - Chinese companies like JieTi Medical are progressing steadily in clinical trials and product optimization under strict regulatory frameworks, with their invasive BCI systems entering the "green channel" for innovation review by the National Medical Products Administration [6][7]. Group 2: Applications and Future Prospects - BCIs are categorized into three main application areas: brain-controlled output (e.g., decoding movement intentions), neural modulation (e.g., deep brain stimulation for Parkinson's), and sensory reconstruction (e.g., restoring hearing and vision) [9]. - The clinical value of BCIs in treating diseases is expected to be validated within the next three to five years, improving patients' quality of life and work capabilities [10]. - The consumer healthcare aspect of BCIs is anticipated to emerge in the next five to ten years, transforming human-machine interaction and enhancing efficiency through direct brain control of devices [10]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - The second-generation high-throughput wireless BCI system developed by JieTi Medical features 256 electrode channels, expanding its application from motor control to language reconstruction [7]. - The implantation process involves minimally invasive techniques, allowing for stable signal collection from the brain with low latency, comparable to natural brain function [13]. - Accumulating single-cell data from BCIs is crucial for advancing neuroscience and enhancing product design, with the potential for significant breakthroughs in understanding brain functions [14][15]. Group 4: AI Integration and Future Implications - AI and algorithms are expected to play a vital role in processing complex brain data, with the potential to create foundational models that improve the performance of BCIs for new patients [17][18]. - The relationship between BCIs and AI is seen as a dynamic interplay, where human intentions can guide AI actions, leading to more sophisticated control of devices [18]. - The integration of BCIs could enable humans to exceed current physical capabilities, with examples showing that BCI users can achieve faster control speeds than average individuals [19][20]. Group 5: Ethical Considerations and Human-Machine Fusion - The development of BCIs is viewed as a necessary step towards deep human-machine integration, serving as a bridge for communication between humans and AI [20][21]. - Concerns about AI potentially evolving beyond human control highlight the importance of maintaining human agency in the development of these technologies [21].