证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 10 月 10 日 坚守成长，大盘风格占优 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202510） 历史上无论 10 月还是四季度，大盘风格占优概率高。另外，尽管历史上前期强 势风格经常在四季度转弱，但目前尚不具备相关驱动条件，科技成长有望在四 季度继续占优。"十五五"规划的政策预期下，市场风险偏好预计保持高位。三 季报交易窗口将至，业绩有望保持高增或者明显改善的仍主要集中在高端制造、 AI 产业链等偏成长风格的方向上。外部流动性方面，市场对美联储 10 月降息 预期升温，行业类 ETF 成为市场重要增量资金来源有利于偏龙头、中大盘股票 表现。综上，我们认为 10 月市场偏大盘风格，成长有望继续占优。 风险提示：经济数据不及预期，海外政策超预期收紧 定期报告 相关报告 《短期震荡不改成长风格主线， 大盘股更优——A 股流动性与风 格跟踪月报（202509）》 《市场波动增大，优选主流风格 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报 （202508）》 《偏大盘风格为主，成长价值或 相对均衡——A 股流动性与风格 跟踪月报（202507）》 《增量资金相对均衡，大盘风格 为主——A 股 ...

Group 1 - David Tepper expressed concerns about current valuations, indicating a shift in sentiment compared to his previous preference for Chinese assets [1][2] - As of Q2 2025, Appaloosa Management held approximately $6.45 billion in U.S. equities, with Alibaba representing over 12% of the portfolio, while increasing Nvidia's position significantly [1][2] - Tepper highlighted the risks associated with multiple interest rate cuts, suggesting that a weakening dollar and rising inflation could disrupt market stability [2][3] Group 2 - Tepper noted that while Chinese companies have attractive price-to-earnings ratios, the uncertainty surrounding policies and liquidity poses significant risks [2][3] - He advised investors to diversify their portfolios and not to concentrate too heavily on any single investment, especially in the context of potential policy fluctuations [3][4] - Tepper's cautious approach reflects a balance between recognizing opportunities in Chinese assets and the historical lessons learned from past market volatility [4]

Core Insights - The core theme of the articles revolves around the evolution of Xiaomi's corporate identity and its strategic shift from being perceived as an "internet company" to a "hardcore technology company" [1][2][3] - The concept of "cognitive upgrade" is highlighted as a crucial factor for Xiaomi's success and its ability to face market challenges and competition [2][3] Group 1: Company Strategy - Xiaomi's initial success was built on a cost-effective internet model, leveraging social marketing to sell hardware at near-cost prices, which allowed rapid growth [2] - The company is now focusing on high-end markets with its Ultra products and self-developed chips, aiming to demonstrate its technological capabilities and willingness to invest heavily in future developments [2] - The transition from a low-cost perception to a high-quality brand is essential for Xiaomi to avoid being outpaced by competitors in a price-sensitive market [2] Group 2: Cognitive Evolution - The cognitive evolution within Xiaomi is described as a systematic upgrade that influences both internal and external perceptions of the company [2][3] - Successful companies often undergo painful cognitive transformations, and Xiaomi is currently experiencing a similar phase as it seeks to redefine its growth trajectory [2] - The ability to break through self-imposed cognitive ceilings is seen as a key to achieving long-term success and embracing future uncertainties [3]

Core Insights - The core theme of the articles revolves around the evolution of Xiaomi's corporate identity and its strategic shift from being perceived as an "internet company" to a "hardcore technology company" driven by a change in cognition [1][2]. Group 1: Company Evolution - Xiaomi's transition is marked by a significant change in its internal and external recognition, which is seen as the key to its success and the source of various public criticisms [1][2]. - The company aims to challenge the perception of being a low-cost brand by investing heavily in technology and innovation, including self-developed chips and high-end products [2][3]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The initial success of Xiaomi was built on a cost-effective internet model, leveraging social marketing to sell hardware at near-cost prices, but this strategy has led to challenges in a competitive market [2]. - As consumer preferences evolve, Xiaomi is focusing on high-end markets with its Ultra product line, indicating a shift towards quality and technological advancement [2][3]. Group 3: Cognitive Upgrade - The process of cognitive upgrade within the company is seen as a systematic evolution that requires time, investment, and product strength to ensure sustainable growth [2][3]. - Successful companies often undergo painful cognitive transformations, and Xiaomi is currently navigating its own "cognitive adolescence," similar to experiences faced by other tech giants like Apple and Microsoft [2].

新浪科技讯 9月25日晚间消息，在今日的2025雷军年度演讲活动上，小米集团董事长、CEO雷军发表演 讲。 雷军表示，再次做自研芯片，难的不仅仅是技术，而是经历松果的惨败之后，如何能够重新站起来。失 败本身并不可怕，正视内心的恐惧，才是关键。 他透露，项目刚刚启动时，自己建议还叫松果，大家坚决不同意。最后起了玄戒，代表一个庄重的承 诺：小米造芯，我们是认真的。 ...

凤凰网科技讯 9月25日，雷军在今晚年度演讲中，讲述于小米自研芯片业务背后不为人知的故事。据了 解，在小米决定再次冲击自研芯片的关键时期，公司内部曾经历过一次深刻的动摇与激辩。面对每个项 目高达五六百亿的巨额投入，整个团队承受着令人窒息的财务压力，甚至在核心管理层中也出现了"继 续做芯片是否会拖垮公司"的质疑声，导致内部士气一度陷入低谷。 在这一决定小米芯片业务命运的十字路口，公司专门组织了一场气氛凝重的高管会议，旨在就芯片业务 的去留达成一致意见。与会者深知，这不仅是一个商业决策，更是一个关乎小米未来十年战略走向的重 大抉择。由于小米已有过一次芯片研发的挫折经历，如果再度放弃，外界将不再给予信任和机会，小米 或将永远与自研高端芯片无缘。 会议讨论一度陷入僵局。有高管坦言，从纯商业和财务角度来看，在当时的节点，这笔投入的风险和回 报根本无法算清，最终的决断只能依赖创始人的战略远见。 面对巨大的不确定性，小米创始人并未迟疑。他向所有高管提出了一个直击灵魂的问题："假如现在放 弃，十年后，我们是会为公司的账上多了几百个亿而庆幸，还是会为小米这家公司永远失去芯片业务而 后悔？" 这个问题瞬间扭转了会议的氛围，将决策 ...

他透露，项目刚刚启动时，自己建议还叫松果，大家坚决不同意。最后起了玄戒，代表一个庄重的承 诺：小米造芯，我们是认真的。 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：梁斌 SF055 专题：雷军2025年度演讲 新浪科技讯 9月25日晚间消息，在今日的2025雷军年度演讲活动上，小米集团董事长、CEO雷军发表演 讲。 雷军表示，再次做自研芯片，难的不仅仅是技术，而是经历松果的惨败之后，如何能够重新站起来。失 败本身并不可怕，正视内心的恐惧，才是关键。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.12%, Nasdaq down 0.02%, and S&P 500 up 0.01% as of 10:30 PM Beijing time [2] - American Lithium Corp surged over 100% amid reports that the U.S. government is negotiating to acquire a stake in the mining company [2] Group 2 - Tesla's stock rose over 3% as UBS raised its Q3 delivery forecast from 431,000 to 475,000 units, an increase of nearly 10%, suggesting potential record deliveries for the quarter [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by over 3.7%, with several Chinese concept stocks rising over 10% [6] - Alibaba's stock jumped nearly 10%, reaching its highest level since October 2021, following the announcement of a partnership with NVIDIA for Physical AI and plans for a significant investment in AI infrastructure [6] - Baidu's stock opened up over 8%, with analysts highlighting the growth potential in cloud computing, autonomous driving, and self-developed chips [7] Group 3 - Powell warned of risks in the stock market, citing increased downside risks in the job market as a key reason for the recent interest rate cut [8] - The core PCE inflation rate for August is expected to be 2.3%, with price increases primarily reflecting tariff impacts rather than widespread inflationary pressures [8] - There is a general expectation that the Federal Reserve may cut rates two more times this year, although there are still internal disagreements [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect seeing over HKD 1 trillion in net inflows year-to-date, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, indicating a potential record high for the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Connect has reached HKD 60.8 billion, accounting for 24.5% of the overall market [4]. - In August 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a net inflow of HKD 112.2 billion, marking the ninth highest monthly inflow on record [6]. - The Southbound trading of ETFs has seen an average daily trading volume of HKD 3.8 billion in the first half of 2025, setting a new semi-annual record [6]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The financial sector remains the largest holding in the Hang Seng Stock Connect, accounting for 32%, followed by information technology at 20% and consumer discretionary at 16% [6]. - The healthcare sector has seen the largest increase in weight from 3% to 7% year-to-date, while consumer discretionary and information technology sectors have increased by 3 and 2 percentage points, respectively [6]. Group 3: Earnings and Growth Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market has stabilized, with positive earnings growth in the first half of 2025, showing revenue and profit growth rates of 1.9% and 4.6%, respectively [8]. - The sectors of technology, healthcare, and materials are expected to maintain high growth, while some sectors like energy and utilities are still under pressure [8]. - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see a turning point in earnings growth, with expectations for a rebound in previously underperforming sectors [8]. Group 4: Investment Trends - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong stock market, with internet stocks expected to benefit significantly [9]. - The demand for AI cloud services is driving revenue growth, with private cloud service providers outpacing state-owned telecom companies for the first time in four years [10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent progress in the new round of China-US trade negotiations has boosted risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 27,000 points [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has improved liquidity conditions, supporting the overall market [3][8] - The technology sector has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching a new high for the year [3] Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of September 19, 2025, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index are 12.04 and 23.86, respectively [6][7] - The technology sector in Hong Kong has potential for valuation recovery, with strong earnings growth expectations driven by software services and platform economy innovations [9] Group 3: Sector Analysis Technology - Alibaba and Baidu have begun using self-developed chips for AI model training, reducing reliance on Nvidia chips, indicating significant progress in domestic AI computing power [8] - The valuation of Hong Kong's technology sector remains attractive compared to US tech giants, with a P/E ratio of 23.86 versus 42.86 for the Nasdaq [9] New Consumption - Recent policies from the Ministry of Commerce aim to boost service consumption, which may enhance the basic economic outlook for new consumption sectors [10] - Hong Kong's new consumption sector is filling gaps left by traditional A-share markets, focusing on service and experiential consumption [12] Pharmaceuticals - The recent regulatory changes are expected to benefit innovative drug companies in Hong Kong, with a P/E ratio of 36.36 for the innovative drug index, indicating potential for valuation recovery [13] Financials - The brokerage sector is experiencing a revival due to active market conditions, with low historical valuations presenting opportunities [14] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from regulatory changes aimed at improving quality and reducing risks [14] Dividends - The low interest rate environment and economic recovery are favorable for dividend strategies, with the Hong Kong dividend index showing a P/E ratio of 8.71 and a dividend yield of 5.97% [15]