市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 研究早观点 2025 年 10 月 21 日 星期二 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | 遇 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,863.89 | 0.63 | | | 深证成指 | | 12,813.21 | 0.98 | | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,538.22.53 | 0 | | | 中小板指 | | 7,870.96 | 0.71 | | | 创业板指 | | 2,993.45 | 1.98 | | | 科创 | 50 | 1,367.90 | 0.35 | | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证纺服】9 月社零数据点评-9 月国内社零同比增长 3.0%，化妆品 单月增速环比提升 【山证纺服】行业周报-老铺黄金天猫"双 11"表现强劲，361 度零售 流水延续健康增长 【公司评论】晨光生物(300138.SZ)：晨光生物 2025 年前三季报业绩预 告点 ...

格隆汇10月15日丨冠农股份(600251.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司已开展了番茄红素、番茄功能性 提取物等功能性产品的开发研究工作。后续将结合产品特性，并综合评估技术、市场、政策等关键要 素，分阶段科学推进。公司当前暂无海外建厂相关计划，如有重要进展，将严格依规及时履行信息披露 义务。 ...

格隆汇10月15日丨冠农股份(600251.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司已开展了番茄红素、番茄功能性 提取物等功能性产品的开发研究工作。后续将结合产品特性，并综合评估技术、市场、政策等关键要 素，分阶段科学推进。公司当前暂无海外建厂相关计划，如有重要进展，将严格依规及时履行信息披露 义务。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Morning Bio Industry Overview - The industry is experiencing a recovery in supply-demand dynamics, with a decrease in raw material planting areas and a continuous increase in demand. The trend towards natural product substitution is evident, leading to a forecasted moderate recovery in industry profitability over the next few years [2][7]. Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Morning Bio's main products, including chili red and chili extract, saw steady sales growth and significant improvement in gross margins. The overall operational trend is similar to the first half of the year [2]. - The company achieved a net profit of between 63 million and 99 million in the third quarter, marking a return to profitability due to increased revenue and gross margins from direct sales products and a recovery in the cottonseed business [4]. - Various products reached historical sales highs, although there remains a gap compared to the peaks of 2022-2023, primarily due to some products being at historical low prices and industry capacity recovery [6]. Product Insights - Chili red sales grew by 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with an expected annual growth rate stabilizing around 20%. The company anticipates maintaining a compound annual growth rate of about 10% in the long term [10]. - The chili extract's gross margin is currently around 20%, with optimistic expectations for raw material price increases, which could significantly improve product profitability [11]. - The company has expanded its health food production capacity with a new facility that adds 1 billion units, expected to generate revenue of 220 million to 300 million in 2026 [3][21]. Strategic Initiatives - To address potential raw material supply tightness, the company has taken proactive measures, including reserving low-cost raw materials and expanding overseas sourcing in regions like Africa, India, and Myanmar [8]. - The company is also focusing on technological reserves to meet downstream demand, including the development of water-soluble pigments and customized application products [9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The market share for chili red is projected to increase to over 50% in 2025, with a mid-term goal of over 80%. The industry is expected to return to a natural growth rate of 10-20% in the coming years [2][20]. - The cottonseed business is expected to maintain stable revenue and profitability, with a net profit of at least 5,000 to 6,000 per ton, indicating a favorable outlook for the next year [20]. - The health food sector is viewed as a continuously developing and rapidly growing market, with Morning Bio aiming to provide high-quality raw materials and products while creating long-term profits for shareholders [23]. Additional Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in sales of other products, such as tomato lycopene and stevia, with sales growth of approximately 50% in the first half of 2025 [17]. - The company is also exploring self-branded products and expanding its market presence through various sales channels, including online platforms [22]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook within the industry.

Core Insights - Xinjiang is one of the world's three major processing tomato core areas, with its tomato sauce export accounting for 70% of the national total [1] - The region has increased technological investment to meet changing market demands, enhancing product quality and market competitiveness [1] Group 1: Harvesting and Processing - September marks the peak harvesting season for tomatoes, with nearly 80,000 acres of tomato fields in Yarkand County, Xinjiang, showcasing a bountiful harvest [3] - Advanced harvesting machines and color selection devices are utilized to efficiently sort ripe tomatoes from unripe ones during the harvesting process [6][8] - The introduction of new equipment has allowed farmers to expand their operations significantly, with one farmer managing 500 acres, compared to the previous 20-30 acres [12] Group 2: Product Quality and Innovation - The processing of tomatoes involves multiple stages of sorting to ensure only ripe tomatoes are used for producing sauces and juices [14] - Research has identified that unripe tomatoes contain higher antioxidant properties, making them valuable for skincare and health products [16] - Over 70 years of innovation has transformed Xinjiang's tomato industry from manual farming to a modern agricultural industry chain encompassing breeding, management, and processing [19] Group 3: Industry Growth and Market Reach - In 2024, the area dedicated to processing tomatoes in Xinjiang exceeded 1.2 million acres, with the entire processing chain fully mechanized [23] - More than 200 processing companies produce a variety of tomato-based products, with markets extending to over 70 countries and regions, including Central Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe and America [23]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on synthetic biology technology and expanding its product offerings while maintaining strong research and development capabilities [1] Group 1: Synthetic Biology and Product Development - The company is closely monitoring developments in synthetic biology, which allows for the synthesis of essential components in microorganisms, potentially benefiting the upstream agricultural sector [1] - The company has a robust extraction and separation technology that can enhance the precision of effective component extraction in the synthetic biology industry [1] - The company plans to develop nutritional and medicinal products such as lycopene and grape seed extracts through its U.S. subsidiary, although production lines have not yet been established due to international economic factors [1] Group 2: Research and Development - The company has invested significantly in R&D, establishing advanced research centers and receiving 84 technology-related awards, including two national science and technology progress second prizes [1] - R&D expenses have increased due to project structural changes, particularly in customized and application-oriented product development [1] - The company is collaborating with Jiangnan University on various projects, including cottonseed protein peptides and other products, and plans to expand these collaborations [1] Group 3: Market Strategy and Future Growth - The company aims to become a leader in the natural plant extract industry by developing around ten top products globally and establishing a comprehensive industrial base [1] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth of natural plant extracts as consumer awareness increases and these products replace synthetic alternatives [1] - The company is focusing on market segments with large scales, long processing chains, and high profit margins for future product development [1] Group 4: Financial Management and Market Position - The company emphasizes value management and shareholder interests, planning to reward shareholders through operational performance [1] - The company’s financing costs are comparable to the same-term Loan Prime Rate (LPR), and market interest rate cuts are expected to lower financing costs [1] - The company is exploring investment and acquisition opportunities based on its development plans and market conditions [1]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Morning Light Bio's long-term development strategy consists of three steps: achieving the world's largest production and sales of capsicum red, establishing around ten leading products globally, and building a natural plant extract industry base [12] - The company is currently in the second step of its strategy, having begun preparations for the third step [12] Group 2: Research and Development - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with a total of 702 patent applications and 450 patents granted as of mid-2025 [3] - R&D expenses have increased significantly in the first half of the year, driven by changes in project structure and higher material costs [8] Group 3: Market Position and Product Development - The company is focusing on expanding its product range, particularly in natural colorants, which are expected to replace synthetic colorants, providing a broader market opportunity [9] - The company has established a strong foothold in the herbal medicine sector, with 11 drug registration certificates obtained and several products in the pipeline [10] Group 4: Financial Performance and Growth Prospects - The revenue from traditional Chinese medicine granules is currently less than 1% of total revenue, indicating potential for growth in this area [3] - The company has expressed confidence in maintaining high growth rates, driven by increasing consumer demand for natural and healthy products [4] Group 5: International Operations - The U.S. subsidiary is currently evaluating the production of nutritional and medicinal products, with no production lines established yet due to economic factors [4] - The company is monitoring the international market for opportunities, particularly in the extraction of astaxanthin from cotton plants [6]

Group 1 - The event held on September 15 focused on the online collective reception day for investors and the collective performance briefing for the first half of 2025 in Hebei's listed companies [1] - The chairman of Morning Glory Biological (stock code: 300138), Lu Qingguo, highlighted the trend of replacing synthetic pigments with natural pigments, which presents significant development opportunities for the natural pigment industry and the company [1] - The company has a large scale and diverse range of natural pigment products, including capsanthin, lycopene, and lutein, and possesses advantages in raw materials and extraction technology [1] Group 2 - Morning Glory Biological has made substantial progress in formulation technology, addressing key technical issues such as stability and solubility, which lays a foundation for expanding into broader markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global tomato processing industry is experiencing growth, particularly driven by increased production in China, but faces challenges such as high market inventory and potential declines in future production due to reduced planting enthusiasm among farmers [1][5][14]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The tomato processing industry is a crucial segment of the tomato supply chain, encompassing breeding, planting, initial processing, deep processing, and end-use by restaurants and food manufacturers [2][4]. - Global processed tomato production remained stable between 34 million to 40 million tons from 2018 to 2022, with a rise to 44.38 million tons in 2023 and an expected increase to 45.84 million tons in 2024, primarily due to significant production growth in China [5][6]. Group 2: Production Insights - China is the largest producer of processed tomatoes, with production increasing from 3.8 million tons in 2018 to 10.45 million tons in 2024, contributing 22.8% to global output [1][14]. - The main production areas in China are Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, with Xinjiang alone accounting for 82.5% of the national production in 2024 [16][18]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The global trend towards healthy eating and advancements in food technology are creating unprecedented opportunities for the tomato processing industry, with sales of tomato products expected to exceed 44 million tons in 2024, marking a 2.3% increase [8]. - Tomato sauce remains a leading product, with sales projected to reach 4.178 million tons in 2024, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth [10][12]. Group 4: Export Dynamics - Approximately 80% of China's processed tomato production is directed towards exports, making the industry sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations and global trade policies [20]. - In 2024, external factors led to a slowdown in export activities, with significant declines in orders from overseas clients [20].

Group 1 - The U.S. HHS and FDA announced a plan to phase out petroleum-based synthetic food colorings, leading to a potential surge in demand for natural colorants [1] - The FDA will establish national standards and a timeline to encourage the industry to transition from synthetic to natural colorants, with a goal to eliminate six major synthetic colorants by the end of 2026 [1] - Sensient Technologies stated that the transition from synthetic to natural colorants represents the largest opportunity in the company's history, with over half of U.S. states initiating legislative activities regarding synthetic colorants [2] Group 2 - Natural colorant usage is expected to increase by 4-12 times compared to synthetic colorants due to lower color concentration in natural options [3] - For example, the demand for sunset yellow in the U.S. is projected to be around 2,500 tons in 2025, which would require at least an additional 10,000 tons of natural colorants if replaced [3] - The market for replacing synthetic colorants with natural alternatives is significant, particularly for colors like temptation red, sunset yellow, and lemon yellow, with various natural substitutes available [3]