2022-2024年连续三年深陷增收降利窘境，炼化巨头荣盛石化（002493）(002493.SZ)今年上半年业绩继 续承压。公司上半年营收、归母净利润分别同比下滑7.83%、29.82%。其中Q2业绩表现尤为拉胯，当季 仅实现归母净利润1368.28万元，同环比降幅超九成。 证券之星注意到，荣盛石化上半年业绩承压是受原油价格波动、存货减值、下游需求低迷等因素影响。 公司营收结构以炼油、化工为主，芳烃产品价差下行拖累化工板块利润，子公司宁波中金石化有限公司 (下称"中金石化")上半年亏损达6.33亿元。当前，荣盛石化正加速向高附加值领域转型，公司斥资超千 亿推进多个项目建设，但大规模资本开支叠加75.12%的高资产负债率、733.07亿元的短债资金缺口，使 荣盛石化面临业绩与资金的双重压力。 Q2业绩断崖式下滑 今年上半年，荣盛石化实现营收1486.29亿元，同比下降7.83%；对应归母净利润6.02亿元，同比下降 29.82%；同期扣非后净利润7.55亿元，同比增长12.28%。 拆解单季度，荣盛石化季度间业绩波动尤为剧烈。Q1实现营收、归母净利润749.75亿元、5.88亿元，同 比变动分别为-7.54% ...

Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry is expected to maintain a stable operational status, driven by technological innovation and green low-carbon transformation [2] - The company is actively responding to national policies to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [2] Project Updates - The Jintang New Materials project is under construction, focusing on high-value areas such as new energy materials and advanced resins [3] - The project aims to extend the industrial chain and enhance raw material value [3] Financial Performance - The company reported a fair value change loss of approximately 200 million due to financial assets and liabilities [4] - The subsidiary Zhongjin Petrochemical incurred a loss of 600 million, primarily due to slow downstream demand recovery and oil price fluctuations [4] Depreciation and Shareholder Engagement - The total depreciation expense for the first half of the year was approximately 8.8 billion [4] - The company has completed three phases of share repurchase, totaling approximately 553 million shares and 6.988 billion in total amount [4] - The controlling shareholder has increased holdings by approximately 172 million shares, totaling about 1.693 billion [4] Core Competencies - The company operates across the entire petrochemical value chain, producing a wide range of products including new materials, organic chemicals, synthetic fibers, and synthetic resins [5]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is expected to experience improved profit margins for refining companies due to a decline in oil prices and enhanced cost optimization, particularly for private refining enterprises like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The oil price is projected to decline in the first half of 2025, leading to a decrease in the price center, which will positively impact the price spread of chemical products, especially olefins [1][2]. - The theoretical net profit for Zhejiang Petrochemical is estimated at approximately 53 billion, 107 billion, and 138 billion yuan under oil prices of 80, 70, and 60 USD respectively, while Hengli Petrochemical's theoretical net profit is estimated at 16 billion, 45 billion, and 70 billion yuan under the same conditions [1][2]. - The refining industry is entering a phase of stock competition due to a slowdown in supply-side growth, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) controlling crude oil processing capacity to remain under 1 billion tons by 2025 [3]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The demand for chemical products is expected to maintain a steady but weak recovery, with an average annual growth rate of about 3%-4% for domestic chemical oil demand from 2025 to 2026 [4]. - The consumption of polyethylene is projected to grow at a rate of 1-4% from 2025 to 2030, while the aromatics sector may see a recovery due to downstream capacity expansion [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Investment Value - The private refining sector is expected to benefit from cost optimization due to falling coal prices, with estimated reductions in coal costs for Hengli Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical of approximately 11.74 million and 8.24 million yuan respectively [2]. - The overall debt ratio of companies is expected to decrease by 5%, leading to a financial cost optimization of about 9-12 million yuan [5]. - The long-term investment value of private refining companies is highlighted, as their current valuation is believed to be lower than the intrinsic value of their refining assets [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The industry is recommended to focus on private refining leaders with significant scale advantages and a diversified product portfolio, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6].