AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 由于吸取了过往地缘政治因素导致油价飙升的教训，如今看空的原油交易员正日益倾向于采用更安全的策略，以应对即将到来的供应过剩 局面。 随着与俄罗斯原油供应相关的新不确定性浮现，交易员正转向价差交易（两份期货合约间的价格差）和期权交易——期权赋予持有者以约 定价格买卖原油的权利，但无强制履行义务。与直接押注期货相比，这些策略风险相对较低，能让交易员在押注明年原油供应过剩（市场 已广泛预判）导致价格下跌的同时，规避突发风险。 若对主要石油生产国俄罗斯的新制裁造成的破坏超出预期，这些策略还能限制亏损。 这种矛盾让整个行业产生了似曾相识之感：过往的地缘政治冲击（如6月的以伊战争）曾推高油价，但并未实际减少供应，并重创了那些 直接看空的投资者。 "我们无需预测原油下一次10美元的波动，"由布伦特·贝洛特（Brent Belote）运营、专注于原油交易的商品交易顾问公司凯勒资本（Cayler Capital），在彭博看到的一封致投资者信中写道，"我们需要在下次3美元的假突破中存活下来，并捕捉到没人愿意交易的1.5美元市场错位 机会。" 在信的另一部分，贝洛特将基本面归 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell over 1% during the U.S. trading session on May 7, reflecting a retreat from recent highs due to optimistic sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations and expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy statement [2] - Market participants are awaiting the Federal Reserve's decision, which is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged; dovish signals from Powell could boost gold prices, while hawkish tones may exert downward pressure [2][3] - Despite the short-term pullback in gold prices, the broader outlook remains neutral to bullish, supported by potential rate cuts and geopolitical instability that could revive buying interest [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart indicates a potential adjustment phase following three consecutive bullish days, with a possibility of a significant decline below 3300 if a bearish engulfing pattern occurs [3] - Short-term support is identified at 3355; if this level holds, there may be opportunities to go long, targeting 3400, with a further potential rise to 3430 if conditions allow [5] - The current trading range is between 3400 and 3360, with a focus on the 3360 support level; a break below this could indicate a shift in short-term trend [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices rebounded to $63 per barrel, while WTI approached $60, reflecting over a 3% increase due to easing trade concerns and optimistic global economic recovery expectations [6] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to a combination of improved trade sentiment and declining U.S. inventory levels, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish short-term outlook [6] - Long-term stability in the global energy market relies on supply-demand balance and economic recovery rather than isolated events; a breakthrough above $62 could signal a new upward trend [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with potential further declines towards the 50 level, while short-term movements show a rebound towards 60 [7] - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is present, although the strength of this momentum is lacking; the expectation is for continued upward movement in the short term [7] - Today's trading strategy recommends focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance at 59.7-60.2 and support at 56.5-56.0 [7]

美国曾幻想将中国从"神坛"上拉下，然而中国始终稳如泰山，面对美国暂停油气进口，我们的能源供应几乎未受影响，反而让特朗普的能源大亨们心痛不 已。这一反制策略精准而强硬，而美国为何如此焦虑？中国是如何做到毫不畏惧的呢？ 今年2月，中国对美国的原油和天然气加征关税，初期税率在10%到15%之间，而到了4月，这一数字直接跃升至145%。这一强硬措施使得美国的能源出口几 乎无缘进入中国市场，按照常理，这种情况下国内能源供应应该会出现一些波动，但实际情况却令人惊讶。4月28日，国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在新闻 发布会上简洁地表示"没有影响"，看似简单的表态，实际上透露着中国在能源领域的雄厚底气。 据透露，中国从美国进口的油气量大幅下降，液化天然气（LNG）已连续两个月零进口。然而，这点美国的油气量对中国庞大的能源体系来说，根本不算 什么。全球市场上的供应商多如牛毛，沙特、俄罗斯、卡塔尔、澳大利亚等国都能随便提供所需。3月和4月，全球经济疲软，原油需求下降，油价也出现下 滑，中国趁机大举采购，库存堆得满满的。国际能源署数据显示，到2025年初，全球原油供应将依然保持宽松，而OPEC的减产策略又为中国的能源采购提 供了足够的 ...