分析师：张洋 登记编码：S0730516040002 zhangyang-yjs@ccnew.com 021-50586627 券商板块 2025 年 10 月回顾及 11 月前瞻 ——券商板块月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 证券Ⅱ相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：聚源、中原证券研究所 -16% -11% -5% 1% 6% 12% 18% 23% 2024.11 2025.03 2025.07 2025.11 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 相关报告 《证券Ⅱ行业年度策略：投融资协调发展，行 业景气度延续》 2025-11-24 《证券Ⅱ行业月报：券商板块 2025 年 9 月回 顾及 10 月前瞻》 2025-10-28 《证券Ⅱ行业专题研究：创 2016 年以来最佳 半年度经营业绩》 2025-09-29 联系人：李智 ⚫ 券商板块 2025 年 10 月行情回顾：10 月券商指数维持区间震荡， 全月波动率明显收敛。中信二级行业指数证券Ⅱ全月下跌 0.73%， 跑输沪深 300 指数（平盘）0.73 个百分点。10 月券商板块跌多涨 少，个股表现分化，全月跑赢券商指数的个股数量环比有所减少， 板 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Investment Holding Group has terminated the transfer of 17.33% shares of Hongta Securities, reflecting a shift in the strategic evaluation of brokerage licenses in the industry [1][8]. Group 1: Share Transfer Termination - The agreement for the transfer of 8.17 billion shares (17.33% of total shares) from Yunnan Investment Holding Group to Yunnan Yunzhi Capital has been canceled [1][3]. - The valuation of the shares was assessed at 6.342 billion yuan by a third-party evaluation agency [4]. - The transfer had not undergone regulatory approval or actual transfer procedures [7]. Group 2: Industry Context - The trend of local state-owned assets acquiring brokerage shares is becoming mainstream, but quality assets must match quality resources [1][8]. - The brokerage industry is transitioning from quantitative expansion to qualitative improvement, prompting shareholders to reassess the strategic value of brokerage licenses [1][10]. Group 3: Company Performance - Hongta Securities reported a revenue of 1.189 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 15.69%, with net profit reaching 670 million yuan, up 49.25% [12]. - The company’s investment income was 697 million yuan, and net income from brokerage fees was 113 million yuan, both showing year-on-year growth [12]. - The company is focusing on non-directional investment strategies to enhance asset quality and optimize its asset-liability structure [13]. Group 4: Management Changes - Hongta Securities is seeking to recruit new senior management personnel, including vice presidents and a chief information officer, to drive its business transformation [14]. - The recruitment aims to bring in high-end talent to accelerate digital transformation and explore differentiated development paths [14].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huhangyu achieved a total revenue of 8.685 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.80%, with a profit attributable to equity holders of 2.787 billion yuan, up 4.01% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Highway Business Performance - The highway business generated revenue of 10.662 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 2.28% from 10.424 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 59.0% of total revenue [3] - The growth in highway toll revenue is attributed to the steady recovery of the Chinese economy and the increasing economic vitality in Zhejiang Province [3] - The company plans to leverage the "Zhijiang Traffic Control" investment platform to promote quality highway project investments and mergers, while also exploring the construction of a new energy vehicle battery swap station network [3] Group 2: Securities Business Performance - The securities business reported revenue of 6.183 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 2.97% from 6.372 billion yuan in 2023, making up 34.2% of total revenue [4] - The performance of the securities business was impacted by market volatility in the first three quarters, but showed signs of recovery in the fourth quarter [4] - The company anticipates that domestic capital markets will continue to deepen reforms under policy guidance, creating opportunities in emerging industries such as new energy and green finance [4] Group 3: Financial Indicators - Basic earnings per share for the first half of 2025 were 0.47 yuan, with a net asset per share of 7.70 yuan and an annualized return on equity of 12.06% [6] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased from 70.92% in 2023 to 66.07% in 2024, but rose to 67.87% in the first half of 2025 [6] - Cash and cash equivalents increased from 70.079 billion yuan in 2024 to 85.044 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating strong liquidity [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, while also recommending attention to other quality firms like Guotai Junan, China Galaxy, Dongfang Securities, and Zheshang Securities [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The performance recovery of listed securities firms is expected to continue into Q2 2025, driven by a rebound in capital markets and increased trading activity, with an estimated 10% year-on-year growth in operating revenue [1][12]. - The self-operated and brokerage business lines are projected to maintain high growth rates, with self-operated income expected to increase by 30% and brokerage income by 26% year-on-year [1][2][12]. - The investment banking sector is anticipated to recover, with IPO and refinancing activities showing significant growth, leading to a projected 20% increase in investment banking revenue [4][32][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Outlook - Q2 2025 is expected to see a continuation of high growth momentum for listed securities firms, with operating revenue projected to grow by 10% year-on-year, driven by self-operated, brokerage, asset management, credit, and investment banking businesses [1][12]. - The market sentiment is recovering, and trading activity is increasing, with the average daily trading volume in the stock market reaching 1.49 trillion yuan [2][18]. 2. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-elasticity stocks, particularly leading securities firms that are likely to benefit from the recovery of the capital market [37][38]. - The ongoing mergers and acquisitions, along with the steady progress of refinancing, are expected to enhance the performance of the securities industry [38][48]. 3. Key Companies - CITIC Securities is projected to maintain high growth rates in Q2 2025, benefiting from strong performance in its investment banking and international business segments [50][51]. - Huatai Securities is also expected to show robust performance, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit [39][50]. 4. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial projections for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for revenue and net profit growth across the sector [6][39]. - For instance, CITIC Securities is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 178 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 29.1% [50]. 5. Market Trends - The report highlights the positive trends in the Hong Kong stock market, which are expected to benefit mainland securities firms in their investment banking and brokerage businesses [40][41]. - The ongoing recovery in the capital markets, along with supportive government policies, is likely to enhance the overall performance of the securities industry [37][38].