机构：海通国际 泽布替尼放量符合预期，美国市场增长强劲 1. 泽布替尼：全年实现收入39.3 亿美元（同比+49%）。其中，美国销售28 亿美元（同比+45%），欧 洲销售6.0 亿美元（同比+66%），中国销售3.4 亿美元（同比+33%）。4Q25 泽布替尼实现收入11.5 亿 美元（环比+10%，同比+38%）。 2. 替雷利珠单抗：全年实现收入7.4 亿美元（同比+19%），4Q25实现收入1.8 亿美元（环比-5%，同比 +18%）。 3. 合作产品中国销售：全年实现收入6.2 亿美元（同比+20%），主要得益于地舒单抗和贝林妥欧单抗的 增长。 2026 催化剂丰富 1H26 百济神州重点催化剂包括： 研究员：孟科含/聂照亿 事件 2025 年百济神州实现收入53.4 亿美元（同比+40%），其中产品收入52.8 亿美元，符合我们预测（52.7 亿美元），略超此前管理层指引的50-53 亿美元。归母净利润2.9 亿美元（同期亏损6.4 亿美元），实现 年度经常性业务扭亏。管理层预计2026 年公司将实现收入62-64 亿美元，实现GAAP 经营利润7-8 亿美 元。 点评 4. BTK CDAC 用 ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains an "outperform" rating for BeiGene (06160), with revenue forecasts for FY26 and FY27 at $6.4 billion and $7.1 billion respectively, and slightly adjusts net profit forecasts to $610 million and $1.04 billion for the same periods [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, BeiGene achieved revenue of $5.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with product revenue of $5.28 billion, slightly exceeding previous management guidance [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was $290 million, marking a turnaround in annual recurring business [1] - Management anticipates revenue of $6.2 billion to $6.4 billion for 2026, with GAAP operating profit projected at $700 million to $800 million [1] Group 2: Product Performance - Zepzelca generated revenue of $3.93 billion for the year, a 49% increase year-on-year, with U.S. sales at $2.8 billion (up 45%), European sales at $600 million (up 66%), and Chinese sales at $340 million (up 33%) [2] - The quarterly revenue for Zepzelca in Q4 2025 was $1.15 billion, reflecting a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38% increase year-on-year [2] - Tislelizumab achieved annual revenue of $740 million, a 19% increase year-on-year, with Q4 2025 revenue of $180 million, up 18% year-on-year [2] - Collaborative product sales in China totaled $620 million for the year, a 20% increase, driven by growth in Duzallo and Belantamab Mafodotin [2] Group 3: Upcoming Catalysts - Key catalysts for 1H26 include the approval of Sotigalimab for R/RMCL in the U.S., interim analysis of Zepzelca in 1L-MCL Phase III, initiation of CDK4 in 1L-HR+ HER2- BC Phase III, and data readout for BTKCDAC in moderate to severe chronic spontaneous urticaria Phase Ib [3] - In 2H26, key catalysts include submission of BTKCDAC for accelerated approval based on Phase II clinical data for R/R-CLL, initiation of Sotigalimab in a triplet regimen for 2L+ multiple myeloma Phase III, and expected initiation of BGB-B2033 (GPC3x41BB) for gastrointestinal cancer in a potential registrational Phase II study [3]

海通国际主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，维持百济神州(06160)"优于大市"评级，维持FY26/27营收预 测64亿/71亿美元，略微调整FY26/27的归母净利润预测至6.1亿/10.4亿美元，该行使用现金流折现(DCF) 模型及FY27-FY35的现金流进行估值。基于WACC 9%，永续增长率4.0%(均不变)，对应目标价212.09港 元。 2025业绩快报 2026催化剂丰富 1H26百济神州重点催化剂包括：索托克拉用于R/RMCL在美国获批;泽布替尼用于1LMCL的三期进行期 中分析;CDK4预计启动1LHR+ HER2- BC的III期临床;BTKCDAC用于中重度自发性荨麻疹1b期预计读出 数据。 2H26百济神州重点催化剂包括：递交BTKCDAC基于2期临床R/RCLL适应症的加速批准申请;启动索托 克拉三药联用，用于2L+多发性骨髓瘤的III期临床;BGB-B2033(GPC3x41BB)预计启动用于胃肠道癌的潜 在注册性II期研究;BGB-45035(IRAK4 CDAC):类风湿关节炎的I/II期数据预计读出 风险提示 商业化不及预期风险;研发不及预期风险;行业 ...

研究报告 Research Report 27 Feb 2026 百济神州 BeiGene (6160 HK) 2025 业绩快报：泽布放量符合预期，26 年收入利润有望稳步提升 First look on FY25 results: BRUKINSA sales ramp-up in line; mgmt expects robust sales/NP growth in FY26F [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$194.40 目标价 HK$212.09 HTI ESG 1.8-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$334.08bn / US$42.72bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$85.83mn 发行股票数目 1,541mn 自由流通股 (%) 94% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$229.00-HK$125.70 ...

研究报告 Research Report 27 Feb 2026 百济神州 BeiGene (6160 HK) 2025 业绩快报：泽布放量符合预期，26 年收入利润有望稳步提升 First look on FY25 results: BRUKINSA sales ramp-up in line; mgmt expects robust sales/NP growth in FY26F [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$194.40 目标价 HK$212.09 HTI ESG 1.8-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$334.08bn / US$42.72bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$85.83mn 发行股票数目 1,541mn 自由流通股 (%) 94% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$229.00-HK$125.70 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 44.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 276.0 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.4 billion yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 36.9 billion yuan in the same period last year [5][6]. - The global revenue for the drug Zebutinib surpassed 1 billion USD, with a notable growth of 53.2% in the first three quarters of 2025. The revenue breakdown shows strong performance in various regions, particularly in China, where it grew by 359% [6][9]. - The company has adjusted its full-year revenue guidance from 50-53 billion USD to 51-53 billion USD, while maintaining its guidance for positive GAAP operating profit [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 100.8 billion yuan, representing a 41.1% increase year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 85.9%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points compared to previous quarters [6][7]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 371.0 billion yuan, 471.5 billion yuan, and 581.8 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.3%, 27.1%, and 23.4% [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 8.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a staggering growth of 116.5% compared to the previous year [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector experienced significant declines due to external factors, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index down 18.93% and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug Index down 10.80%. However, Ascentage Pharma-B (06855) saw a remarkable stock price increase of 66.48%, outperforming the indices due to multiple unexpected positive developments in product internationalization, innovative research, and secondary market financing, validating the company's "investment certainty" [1]. Financial Performance - Ascentage Pharma reported a revenue of RMB 981 million in 2024, a substantial increase of 342% year-on-year. The sales revenue of the core product, Nairik (耐立克®), reached RMB 241 million, reflecting a growth of approximately 53%. The company's cash flow improved, with a monetary fund balance of RMB 1.261 billion as of December 31, 2024, up 15.3% year-on-year [2]. Product Development and Market Potential - Nairik has successfully passed the 2024 National Medical Insurance negotiation process and will be included in the new National Medical Insurance Drug List starting January 1, 2025. This inclusion indicates strong recognition of the drug's innovative capabilities by the domestic medical system, which typically leads to rapid sales growth for innovative drugs post-inclusion [2]. - Ascentage Pharma signed a $1.3 billion exclusive option agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical for Nairik, setting a new record for domestic small molecule oncology drug business development transactions [3]. Clinical Advancements - Nairik is positioned to become the first TKI drug approved for first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL) in China, with significant market potential. The drug has been included in the "Breakthrough Therapy Designation" list and is expected to generate considerable sales growth in the Ph+ ALL treatment market [4][5]. - In the solid tumor field, Nairik's Phase III clinical trial for treating SDH-deficient GIST patients has received approval, and the drug has shown excellent anti-tumor effects in various clinical presentations [4]. Research and Development - Ascentage Pharma's R&D investment reached RMB 947 million in 2024, supporting strong revenue growth and cash flow expectations. The company is conducting ten registration clinical trials, with two receiving FDA approval, laying a solid foundation for exploring the global differentiated innovative drug market [5]. - The company has two core products, Nairik and APG-2575, both with billion-dollar potential, alongside several other promising candidates in development. Ascentage holds 541 global patents, with 379 granted overseas, establishing a robust global intellectual property framework [5]. Market Position and Future Outlook - APG-2575, a Bcl-2 inhibitor, has been accepted for priority review by the NMPA for treating refractory or relapsed chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL). It is expected to become the second Bcl-2 inhibitor approved globally, with projected sales exceeding $2 billion [6][7]. - Ascentage Pharma successfully listed on the US stock market in 2024, raising approximately $126 million, enhancing its international financing channels. The company is well-positioned as a high-value biopharmaceutical investment in the US market [7]. Conclusion - With strong cash flow and an integrated innovation loop, Ascentage Pharma is accelerating its transition to a leading global biopharma through systematic competition in global R&D, overseas registration, and international commercialization [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for BeiGene [2]. Core Views - BeiGene is positioned as a leading innovator in China's biopharmaceutical sector, with a strong focus on oncology treatments and a robust pipeline of over 60 clinical projects globally [3][11]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2025, driven by significant revenue growth from its core products, particularly the BTK inhibitor, Zanubrutinib, which is projected to double its revenue in 2024 [4][20]. - BeiGene's global commercialization capabilities and a well-established management team are key competitive advantages that will support its growth trajectory [12][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Product Globalization - BeiGene has a diverse product pipeline and aims to become the first biopharma company to achieve consistent profitability [11]. - The company has 17 commercialized products, including Zanubrutinib and Tislelizumab, with strong sales performance in the US and Europe [20]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at $3.81 billion, a 55% increase year-over-year, with significant contributions from the US market [20]. 2. Leadership in Hematology - The combination of BTK inhibitors and BCL-2 inhibitors is expected to solidify BeiGene's leadership in hematological malignancies [5]. - Zanubrutinib has shown superior efficacy compared to Ibrutinib, establishing its best-in-class status [5][24]. - The company is also developing Sonratoclax, a BCL-2 inhibitor, which is anticipated to enhance its market position [5]. 3. Expansion in Solid Tumors - BeiGene is actively expanding its presence in solid tumors, with Tislelizumab gaining traction in various indications [11]. - The company is developing next-generation CDK inhibitors targeting a market exceeding $10 billion [11]. - Focus areas include lung cancer and breast cancer, with ongoing clinical trials for multiple candidates [11]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for FY25-27 are $5 billion, $6 billion, and $6.7 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 21% [7]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive by FY25, reaching $390 million by FY26 [7]. - The target price is set at HK$182.35, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 4% [7].