在乐观派看来，这场投资热潮有着坚实的逻辑。一方面，本轮AI投资的主力是微软、谷歌、亚马逊等现金流充沛的科技巨 头，其巨额资本开支基于清晰的战略规划和健康的财务状况。另一方面，技术渗透与回报已初见端倪。例如，微软的AI投入正 直接转化为营收与利润增长，形成良性循环。这些特征与互联网泡沫时期大量亏损公司依赖融资炒作有着本质区别。 然而，审慎派则指出了光环之下的隐忧。最核心的争议在于部分头部AI独角兽企业的估值远高于其营收规模，商业模式的 可持续性存疑。此外，"循环投资"的嫌疑也难以忽视：芯片巨头投资AI模型公司，模型公司又成为芯片巨头的大客户，云厂商 则为各方提供算力支持——这种内部循环是否夸大了真实的外部需求，值得深思。 ■苏向杲 首先，关键在于区分"投资"与"投机"。真正的"投资"聚焦那些具备核心技术、商业模式清晰和执行力强的企业，这些企业 致力于通过AI提升效率、创造新产品。而"投机"则追逐概念，依赖市场情绪接棒。当前市场中二者并存，鉴别能力尤为重要。 近日，曾精准预测2008年次贷危机的"大空头"迈克尔·伯里对人工智能（AI）领域明星股的做空操作，在全球资本市场掀起 波澜。一边是英伟达市值大幅飙升，科技巨 ...

事件 2025年三季度，百济神州实现收入14.1亿美元(同比+41%，环比+7.7%)，其中公司产品收入14.0亿美元。公司实现毛利率86.1%(同比+3.1ppts)。公司研发费用 5.2亿美元(同比+5.5%)，销售费用5.3亿美元(同比+16.2%)，经营利润为1.6亿美元。三季度公司实现净利润1.2亿美元，管理层上调2025全年总收入指引至51- 53亿美元(前值50-53亿美元)，略微下调经营费用至41-43亿美元(前值41-44亿美元)。 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，考虑到百济神州(06160)泽布替尼在美国和欧洲市场放量超过该行此前预期，上调公司FY25-27营收分别至53亿/64 亿/71亿美元，对应三年收入CAGR为23%;此外该行上调FY25-27归母净利润分别至3.6亿/6.6亿/10.5亿美元，以反映公司销售费用和研发费用增长好于该行预 期。该行使用现金流折现(DCF)模型及FY26-FY34的现金流进行估值。基于WACC9%，永续增长率4.0%(均不变)，对应目标价213.10港元，维持"优于大 市"评级。 海通国际主要观点如下： 血液瘤方面，重点关注BCL-2抑制剂和B ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with innovative drugs being a relatively favorable investment direction due to continuous better-than-expected fundamentals and reasonable valuations [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on "high cost-performance under uncertainty," aiming to maximize returns by strengthening growth factors at the bottom and gradually switching to value factors at the top [1][2]. - The core of portfolio construction is to identify the maximum return space corresponding to each risk, with a natural contrarian characteristic [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to be the main engine driving market trends from 2025 to 2026, supported by strong performance growth and recovery in related sectors [4]. - The potential profit from China's innovative drug sector is estimated to be between 600 billion to 700 billion yuan, with future profits potentially reaching 6 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - China's innovative drug sector has structural advantages, including efficiency in target discovery, early research, and clinical recruitment, which shortens trial cycles and creates a positive feedback loop [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Focus - The Hong Kong market for innovative drugs is receiving increased attention, with a focus on undervalued leading companies and a favorable risk-reward ratio compared to A-shares [6]. - The shift in attitude from overseas investors towards the Hong Kong market is seen as a significant opportunity, with multinational pharmaceutical companies already investing heavily in Chinese innovative drugs [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BeiGene with a target price of HK$182.35, while the current price is HK$141.00 [2][6]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, BeiGene achieved revenue of USD1.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%, with product revenue at USD1.11 billion. The net income attributable to shareholders was USD1.27 million, marking the first quarterly recurring business profit under US GAAP [3][13]. - The growth in overseas revenue, particularly from BRUKINSA, was a significant driver for the company's turnaround to profitability [4][14]. - The management has maintained its full-year revenue guidance of USD4.9 billion to USD5.3 billion, indicating confidence in future performance [3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: USD5.01 billion in FY2025, and USD6.03 billion in FY2026, reflecting growth rates of 31% and 20% respectively [11]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in FY2025 with a forecast of USD34 million, and further increase to USD390 million in FY2026, showing a significant recovery from previous losses [11]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) is projected to improve slightly from 84.7% in FY2025 to 85.0% in FY2026 [11]. Product Performance - BRUKINSA generated revenue of USD790 million in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%. The U.S. sales reached USD563 million, while European sales were USD116 million, indicating strong international demand [4][14]. - The report highlights that BRUKINSA's terminal sales in hospitals increased by 9.2% quarter-on-quarter, suggesting continued growth potential [4][14]. Expense Management - The report notes continuous optimization of expense ratios, with a gross profit margin of 85.2% in Q1 2025, up by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were USD482 million, with a reduced R&D expense ratio of 43.1% [5][15]. - Operating profit improved to USD11.1 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of USD261 million in the same quarter of the previous year [5][15].