作者|弗雷迪 数据支持| 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 2025年10月的中旬，资本市场被一则关于"三花智控斩获特斯拉6.85亿美元（约合50亿元人民币）机器人大额订单"的传闻搅得沸沸扬扬。 尽管公司随即发布公告辟谣，这并未完全浇灭市场的热情，反而像是一颗信号弹，照亮了那条潜藏在水面之下的巨舰航线。 在A股投资视角里，凭借"家电+汽车+机器人"的多元化业务拼盘，三花估值重心偏倚在机器人期权业务上。 "再造三花"，未来真的能实现么？ 01 估值锚点，剧烈切换！ 市场将三花智控视作特斯拉人形机器人的核心供应商，任何的风吹草动都能撩动它的股价。 除了无中生有的订单，此前也一度传出消息称，美国植物基制药企业PharmAGRI与特斯拉签署意向书，计划在自营农场和处方药生产环节部署多达1万台 Optimus Gen3+人形机器人一事，也曾引发轰动，后遭马斯克本人亲自辟谣。 12月特斯拉开启Optimus Gen3的新一轮供应商评估，称之为"审厂"。根据报道称，此举或为配合明年一季度Gen3发布进行量产准备。 三花作为执行器的核心供应商，肯定会受到市场重点关注。即便如此，10月份特斯拉财报公布并放缓机器人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in valuations of AI companies reflects a clash between the technological revolution and capital market pricing logic, highlighted by contrasting perspectives from optimistic and cautious investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Landscape - Major tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are leading the current AI investment wave, supported by strong cash flows and strategic planning [1]. - The optimistic view is that AI investments are beginning to yield revenue and profit growth, creating a positive feedback loop, unlike the internet bubble era where many companies relied on financing without profitability [1]. - Conversely, concerns arise regarding the sustainability of business models for top AI unicorns, as their valuations significantly exceed revenue scales [1][2]. Group 2: Valuation Challenges - The root of valuation discrepancies lies in the friction between the technological revolution cycle and traditional capital market pricing models, with classic DCF models struggling to assess disruptive technologies still in the investment phase [2]. - There is a divide in market perceptions regarding the "moat" of leading AI companies, with optimists believing in their competitive advantages and skeptics pointing to rapid technological iterations and regulatory uncertainties [2]. Group 3: Investment vs. Speculation - It is crucial to distinguish between "investment" and "speculation," with true investments focusing on companies with core technologies and clear business models that enhance efficiency and create new products [2]. - Speculative investments chase concepts and rely on market sentiment, making discernment essential in the current market [2]. Group 4: Key Performance Indicators - Investors should prioritize tangible milestones in commercial applications over mere narratives, focusing on actual cost reductions and revenue contributions from AI technologies [3]. - Companies that can consistently translate technological advantages into financial performance are more likely to succeed in the long term [3]. Group 5: Infrastructure Constraints - The explosive growth of AI is constrained by infrastructure limitations such as energy supply and grid capacity, which could delay technology adoption and impact data center costs [3]. - These constraints serve as a critical test for the viability of AI concept stocks [3]. Group 6: Market Reflection - The ongoing valuation divergence in global AI investments represents a necessary phase for the capital market to find reasonable pricing for an emerging technological revolution [3]. - This debate encourages deeper market reflection and helps avoid blind speculation, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced perspective amid enthusiasm for AI advancements [3].

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International has raised its revenue forecasts for BeiGene (06160) for FY25-27 due to stronger-than-expected sales of Zebrutinib in the US and European markets, projecting revenues of $5.3 billion, $6.4 billion, and $7.1 billion respectively, with a CAGR of 23% over three years [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, BeiGene reported revenues of $1.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.7%, with product revenues of $1.4 billion [3] - The company achieved a gross margin of 86.1%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - R&D expenses were $520 million (up 5.5% YoY), while sales expenses were $530 million (up 16.2% YoY), resulting in an operating profit of $160 million [3] - Net profit for the quarter was $120 million, and management raised the full-year revenue guidance for 2025 to $5.1-5.3 billion [3] Product Performance - Zebrutinib's global revenue is expected to approach $3.9 billion in 2025, with Q3 revenues of $1.04 billion, reflecting a 50.8% YoY increase and a 9.6% QoQ increase [4] - In the US, Zebrutinib generated $740 million (up 46.7% YoY), while in Europe, it reached $160 million (up 67.7% YoY) [4] - The global revenue for Tislelizumab (PD-1) was $190 million, marking a 16.7% increase YoY [4] Pipeline Developments - In the hematological malignancies segment, the company is focusing on BCL-2 inhibitors and BTK CDAC, with plans for various clinical trials and regulatory submissions in the coming years [5] - In the solid tumors segment, the company is advancing CDK4 inhibitors and B7-H4 ADC, with plans to initiate Phase III trials for HR+/HER2- breast cancer in 1H26 [6][7] - Management noted the competitive landscape in the second-line treatment market due to the emergence of multiple new drugs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to return to a growth trajectory, with innovative drugs being a relatively favorable investment direction due to continuous better-than-expected fundamentals and reasonable valuations [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on "high cost-performance under uncertainty," aiming to maximize returns by strengthening growth factors at the bottom and gradually switching to value factors at the top [1][2]. - The core of portfolio construction is to identify the maximum return space corresponding to each risk, with a natural contrarian characteristic [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The innovative drug sector is anticipated to be the main engine driving market trends from 2025 to 2026, supported by strong performance growth and recovery in related sectors [4]. - The potential profit from China's innovative drug sector is estimated to be between 600 billion to 700 billion yuan, with future profits potentially reaching 6 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - China's innovative drug sector has structural advantages, including efficiency in target discovery, early research, and clinical recruitment, which shortens trial cycles and creates a positive feedback loop [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Focus - The Hong Kong market for innovative drugs is receiving increased attention, with a focus on undervalued leading companies and a favorable risk-reward ratio compared to A-shares [6]. - The shift in attitude from overseas investors towards the Hong Kong market is seen as a significant opportunity, with multinational pharmaceutical companies already investing heavily in Chinese innovative drugs [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for BeiGene with a target price of HK$182.35, while the current price is HK$141.00 [2][6]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, BeiGene achieved revenue of USD1.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%, with product revenue at USD1.11 billion. The net income attributable to shareholders was USD1.27 million, marking the first quarterly recurring business profit under US GAAP [3][13]. - The growth in overseas revenue, particularly from BRUKINSA, was a significant driver for the company's turnaround to profitability [4][14]. - The management has maintained its full-year revenue guidance of USD4.9 billion to USD5.3 billion, indicating confidence in future performance [3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: USD5.01 billion in FY2025, and USD6.03 billion in FY2026, reflecting growth rates of 31% and 20% respectively [11]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in FY2025 with a forecast of USD34 million, and further increase to USD390 million in FY2026, showing a significant recovery from previous losses [11]. - Gross profit margin (GPM) is projected to improve slightly from 84.7% in FY2025 to 85.0% in FY2026 [11]. Product Performance - BRUKINSA generated revenue of USD790 million in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%. The U.S. sales reached USD563 million, while European sales were USD116 million, indicating strong international demand [4][14]. - The report highlights that BRUKINSA's terminal sales in hospitals increased by 9.2% quarter-on-quarter, suggesting continued growth potential [4][14]. Expense Management - The report notes continuous optimization of expense ratios, with a gross profit margin of 85.2% in Q1 2025, up by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were USD482 million, with a reduced R&D expense ratio of 43.1% [5][15]. - Operating profit improved to USD11.1 million in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of USD261 million in the same quarter of the previous year [5][15].