Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry [2] Core Insights - Global light vehicle sales in June reached approximately 7.39 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while overseas sales totaled about 4.67 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.5% [2] - The report anticipates that overseas light vehicle sales will be approximately 54.98 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [5] - The report highlights a significant decline in overseas vehicle sales, particularly in North America and Europe, while China shows a positive growth trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales in June were approximately 7.39 million units, with overseas sales at about 4.67 million units, down 3.5% year-on-year [2] - In June, North America sold 1.55 million units (down 4.5% year-on-year), Europe sold about 1.57 million units (down 7.7% year-on-year), and China sold 2.72 million units (up 13% year-on-year) [5] - The report projects that overseas light vehicle sales will decline by 0.2% in 2025, with North America expected to see a 1.5% decrease and Europe a 2.3% decrease [5] 2. Market Competition - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that major automakers are facing challenges due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [5] - It highlights the performance of leading companies in the global market, with a focus on their sales shares and competitive strategies [5] 3. Automotive and Parts Company Export Situation - The report provides insights into the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, indicating a growing trend in exports [5] - It lists companies with significant overseas revenue contributions, emphasizing their market positions and growth potential [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of natural rubber raw materials in Thailand remained strong this week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased, with both dark and light rubber inventories declining. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises in China increased slightly. The downstream demand was average, and the overall transaction was light. Affected by the potential impact of the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia on supply and the "anti - involution" policy, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the regulatory measures, rubber may follow the market and experience a narrow - range correction. [77] - The recommended investment strategies are: 1) Unilateral: oscillatory correction; 2) Inter - period: NR reverse spread; 3) Inter - variety: not provided. [77] 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year, with exports to China increasing by 35%. Among them, the exports of mixed rubber increased significantly, while the exports of some types of natural rubber showed different trends. [5] - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles increased, while the market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased. [6] - On July 24, 2025, there was a border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Both sides accused each other of opening fire first. [7] - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The Chinese market performed strongly, while the US and Western European markets faced challenges. [8] Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509.SHF was 15,585 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.23%; the closing price of NR2509.SHF was 13,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, with a weekly increase of 5.30%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, with a weekly increase of 2.56%. [11][12] Fundamental Data Supply - Weather: In the Thai southern region, the temperature rose and rainfall continued to ease. In Hainan and Yunnan of China, the recent rainfall was at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month. [40][41] - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50.00 baht/kg, the price of Thai glue was 55.30 baht/kg, etc. [44][45] - Raw material price differences: The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory increased. [53][54] - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits rebounded. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108.00 yuan/ton, and the production profit of Thai smoked sheet was 1,891.00 yuan/ton. [57][58] - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month. [61][62] Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 62.23%, and the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 70.06%. [65] - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. [67][68] Inventory - Spot inventory: This week, the natural rubber inventory in China decreased, with both dark and light rubber inventories decreasing. As of July 18, 2025, the dark rubber inventory was 79.56 tons, and the light rubber inventory was 49.35 tons. [70][71] - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 18.20 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.48%. [73][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry [3] Core Views - The report highlights that overseas light vehicle sales remained flat year-on-year in May, with a slight month-on-month increase, totaling approximately 4.63 million units, down 0.1% year-on-year and up 2.1% month-on-month [2][6] - It anticipates a decline in overseas light vehicle sales in 2025, projecting a total of 53.97 million units, down 2.0% year-on-year [6][7] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year, particularly in Europe and North America, where sales growth is expected to slow [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales in May were approximately 7.15 million units, up 3.8% year-on-year and 3.0% month-on-month, with overseas sales at about 4.63 million units [6] - North America saw sales of 1.78 million units in May, up 2.3% year-on-year, while Europe recorded 1.41 million units, down 2.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The report notes that global electric vehicle sales reached approximately 1.75 million units in May, up 31% year-on-year [6][7] 2. Market Competition - The report provides insights into the competitive landscape, indicating that major automakers like Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD are leading in global sales [32][39] - It highlights the market share changes among the top ten automakers, with significant movements noted in the electric vehicle segment [32][39] 3. Automotive and Parts Company Export Situation - The report discusses the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, noting a monthly growth rate in export delivery values [42] - It emphasizes the importance of overseas revenue for certain automotive parts companies, with several companies reporting over 10% of their revenue from international markets [41]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of Stellantis (STLA.N) emphasizes the need for Europe to develop small, affordable vehicles similar to Japan's "light vehicles" [1] Group 1 - The chairman advocates for the introduction of compact and economical cars in the European market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that Yutong Bus (600066) reported a significant decline in sales volume for April 2025, with a total of 3,338 units sold, representing a year-on-year decrease of 27.40% [1] - Cumulative sales for the year reached 12,349 units, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.16% [1] - The sales breakdown reveals that large bus sales were 1,685 units, down 33.92% year-on-year; medium bus sales were 1,009 units, down 36.30%; while light bus sales increased to 644 units, up 38.79% [1] Group 2 - Production figures for April 2025 totaled 3,517 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 29.33% [1] - The production breakdown indicates that large bus production was 1,774 units, down 36.30% year-on-year; medium bus production was 1,042 units, down 38.09%; and light bus production increased to 701 units, up 37.72% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's tariff policy is creating significant uncertainty in the automotive industry, leading to increased costs for manufacturers and consumers, ultimately resulting in a projected decline in light vehicle sales by over 640,000 units by 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policy - The uncertainty caused by the tariff policy is one of the most challenging factors for the automotive industry, which typically makes decisions based on 10 to 20-year cycles rather than short-term [3]. - The tariff policy has artificially increased manufacturing costs, which are not linked to demand, raw material costs, or supply chain dynamics, but are ultimately borne by consumers [5]. Group 2: Sales Projections - S&P Global forecasts that the U.S. light vehicle sales will decrease by over 640,000 units by 2025 due to the impact of the tariff policy [6]. Group 3: Manufacturing Adjustments - Adjusting the supply chain, such as relocating factories or replacing components, is a complex process that cannot be completed within a year [6]. - Establishing a new manufacturing facility in another country can take up to three years, including site selection and construction time, along with the establishment of local procurement and supplier networks [8].

Summary of Foton Motor's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Foton Motor - **Date of Call**: April 28, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Performance - Foton Motor has divested from the Borgward assets and reduced long-term equity investments in Foton Daimler, significantly lowering financial negative impacts [2][5] - The light vehicle and export businesses have performed well, and the domestic heavy truck market is recovering, with expectations for a strong performance release in 2025 [2][5] - The collaboration with Foton Daimler will have a significantly reduced drag on financial statements, with high-end heavy truck demand expected to rebound [2][6] Financial Projections - Foton Motor's net profit is projected to exceed 1.5 billion RMB in 2025, primarily driven by heavy truck and engine component businesses, with key growth factors being export increments and improved domestic heavy truck sales [3][19] - Excluding the impact of Foton Daimler, the core profit for 2023 and 2024 is approximately 1.3 billion RMB, indicating potential for substantial profit release in 2025 and 2026 if losses from Foton Daimler decrease [2][13] Market Dynamics - The company’s stock price has experienced fluctuations influenced by the heavy truck market cycle, Borgward expansion and divestment, and the performance of Foton Daimler [2][9] - Currently, the stock price is at a relative bottom, suggesting significant valuation recovery potential [2][10] Business Strategy - Foton Motor should focus on its core commercial vehicle business, increase investment in export operations, and optimize collaboration with Daimler to enhance product competitiveness [2][7] - The light truck business constitutes about 60% of the company's revenue structure, with a stable market presence and expected recovery in 2025 [15] Export Business - The export business, particularly in heavy trucks, is expected to show significant growth in 2025, with a target of 30,000 units exported [17][22] - Foton's heavy truck exports to countries along the Belt and Road have reached approximately 6,000 units, marking an 80% year-on-year increase [17] Future Catalysts - Key catalysts for Foton Motor's future growth include quarterly performance releases and industry policy effects, particularly the implementation of a heavy truck replacement policy expected to boost sales [20][23] - The company is positioned to enter an upward operational cycle in 2025, driven by improved export performance and domestic market recovery [22] Conclusion - Foton Motor is anticipated to enter a new growth phase in 2025, with optimistic revenue projections and a favorable market environment, supported by strategic divestments and a focus on core business areas [21][22]