行业研究 建筑施工行业 2026 年建筑施工行业展望： 供需结构深度调整，信用分化趋势显现 工商部 | 肖尧 2026 年 2 月 6 日 摘要 2025 年，我国建筑施工行业进入调整与转型阶段。行业供给端形成"高端产能不足、低 端产能过剩"的结构性矛盾，行业正处于从同质化规模供给向差异化能力供给转型的关键阶 段。需求端正经历深刻转变，增长动力从传统房地产开发逐步转向以"两重"建设、城市更 新、绿色智能建筑为代表的多元领域。融资端，债券发行集中于高信用等级央国企，行业整 体债务规模较大，需持续关注债券兑付情况。预计 2026 年，我国建筑施工行业将继续向高质 量、专业化方向演进，政策方向将聚焦国家重点战略与新兴领域。行业整体信用质量将保持 稳定，但需重点关注行业结构性调整带来的信用风险分化。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，我国建筑业总产值进入负增长区间，行业整体进入调整期。2025 年，我国建筑 业总产值同比由 326,501.11 亿元降至 303,818.33 亿元，2025 年 1～9 月出现近 5 年来的首次 累计负增长，并于年内延续下降趋势。同期，我国建筑业新签合同额为 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Road and Bridge (002628) expects a net profit loss of between 65 million to 97.5 million yuan for the year 2025, indicating continued financial struggles despite a slight increase in revenue [1][3]. Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders is a loss of 65 million to 97.5 million yuan, compared to a loss of 92.17 million yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is a loss of 68 million to 100 million yuan, compared to a loss of 65.21 million yuan in the previous year [1][3]. - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between -0.09 yuan and -0.13 yuan, compared to -0.12 yuan per share last year [1][3]. Reasons for Performance Changes - The primary reason for the expected loss is the ongoing pressure on the company's construction business, despite a slight increase in revenue for 2025. Financial expenses and other period costs remain significant, and delays in project payments have led to the recognition of expected credit losses on receivables [3]. Order and Contract Status - In the fourth quarter, the company secured only 2 new contracts worth 2.94 million yuan, with a total of 20 signed but uncompleted contracts amounting to approximately 389.59 million yuan by the end of the quarter [4]. Historical Performance - Since 2021, the company's net profit has declined for four consecutive years, with the first annual net loss recorded in 2024. The net profits from 2021 to 2024 were 79.02 million yuan, 9.11 million yuan, 4.49 million yuan, and -92.17 million yuan, respectively [5]. Shareholder Actions - A planned public auction of approximately 53 million shares held by a significant shareholder was halted due to disputes regarding the judicial auction process. This auction involved shares representing 7% of the company's total equity, with a starting price of about 183 million yuan [7]. Market Performance - As of January 22, the company's stock price increased by 2.68% to 4.60 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of approximately 3.483 billion yuan [8].

Core Insights - The Ivorian government has significantly advanced road infrastructure since 2011, with total asphalt road mileage reaching 8,500 kilometers by 2024, up from 6,514 kilometers in 2011 [1] - Over 4 trillion West African francs (approximately 7.1 billion USD) have been invested by the government in various infrastructure projects, including road maintenance programs and national development plans [1] - The number of bridges and overpasses has doubled from 327 to 769, enhancing transportation efficiency and safety [1] Investment and Development - Urban asphalt roads expanded from 4,000 kilometers in 2021 to 4,966 kilometers by 2024, while highway mileage increased from 142 kilometers in 2021 to 400 kilometers by 2025 [1] - Key projects include the Tibissou-Sakassou-Boumé road and the Yamoussoukro-Bouaké highway, which are vital for intercity and urban connectivity [1] - The government plans to construct approximately 1,241.5 kilometers of new road networks, including the Bouaké-Darakokaha highway, as part of the 2021-2025 national development plan [1] Economic Impact - The infrastructure improvements have enhanced transportation efficiency, facilitated agricultural product circulation, and improved social services [1] - These developments contribute to reducing regional disparities and solidifying Côte d'Ivoire's infrastructure advantage in West Africa [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated a budget of 42.704 million yuan for the fourth batch of labor-for-work projects in Yunnan Province for 2025, supporting 68 projects aimed at infrastructure development and local employment [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - The investment plan includes the construction and renovation of 1,154 kilometers of various roads, agricultural land improvement of 200 acres, and the construction of 173 kilometers of ditches and river embankments [1] - Additional infrastructure will include 182 facilities such as small bridges, water storage pools, and culverts [1] - The implementation of these projects is expected to create job opportunities for 13,700 local residents, with a total labor remuneration of 214 million yuan, resulting in an average income increase of 15,600 yuan per person [1] Group 2: Funding and Employment Impact - Yunnan Province has received a total of 2.201 billion yuan in special funds for labor-for-work projects this year, supporting 353 projects and expected to engage 63,500 workers, with total labor remuneration reaching 877 million yuan [1] - In addition to the aforementioned funds, the National Development and Reform Commission has also allocated 20.408 million yuan in advance for 2026 to support 55 labor-for-work projects across 31 counties [1] Group 3: Oversight and Implementation - The Provincial Development and Reform Commission will enforce strict oversight of the investment plan execution and project implementation, ensuring timely project commencement and effective labor remuneration distribution [1] - The goal is to enhance local employment and income stability through these labor-for-work initiatives, ensuring the effectiveness of the program in benefiting the community [1]

Group 1 - The government will not tolerate project delays and will cancel contracts for long-stalled development projects, initiating re-tendering processes [1] - There will be an emphasis on strengthening coordination with provincial governments to expedite project execution [1] - The government plans to promptly commence new road and bridge construction, as well as maintenance of existing roads [1] Group 2 - The Minister inspected the Tanahu Hydropower Project and the Koirala National Center for Respiratory Diseases [1]

Core Insights - The Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda, Browne, announced significant public and private sector investments in Barbuda for 2026, including a $300 million MurBee development project, a $70 million Nobu project with an additional $40 million commitment, and over $100 million for the Barbuda Ocean Club development [1][1][1] Private Sector Investments - The MurBee development project is set to commence in the first half of 2026 with an investment of $300 million [1] - The Nobu project has already seen an investment of $70 million, with a further commitment of $40 million [1] - The Barbuda Ocean Club development project plans to invest over $100 million in 2026 [1] Government-Led Initiatives - Upcoming government projects include a $50 million road development plan, a $14 million new cargo and tourism port project, and a primary school project funded by Dominica [1][1] - Ongoing improvements at the Burton-Nibbs International Airport are also highlighted [1] - The Chinese government will aid in constructing 50 apartment-style residences in Barbuda [1] Reconstruction Efforts - Barbuda is advancing multiple reconstruction projects, with several large public infrastructure projects nearing completion, including the renovated Barbuda Council administrative building and the new site for the National Disaster Services Office [1] - Future plans include the construction of a multifunctional emergency shelter [1] - Funding for these projects primarily comes from a $31 million loan from the Caribbean Development Bank and government matching funds [1]

Core Insights - Since 1975, the development of Morocco's southern regions has been a crucial part of its national strategy, with a significant advancement marked by the launch of a new development model in 2015 [1] - Under the leadership of King Mohammed VI, the plan integrates the southern regions into national economic growth and African integration, combining large-scale investments with local skill development [1] Investment and Economic Growth - Morocco has invested nearly $10 billion in modernizing infrastructure, developing industrial parks, enhancing fisheries, promoting sustainable agriculture, and expanding renewable energy in the southern regions [1] - Official statistics indicate that over $5 billion of this investment has been implemented, leading to significant outcomes such as the development of roads, ports, solar power plants, and industrial parks [1] Economic Performance - The GDP of the southern regions has doubled from $1.5 billion in 2015 to $3 billion currently, achieving a remarkable annual growth rate of 7%, which is higher than the national average [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the regulations regarding the issuance of invoices in China, specifically addressing the limitations on the remarks section of invoices and the process for reporting lost or damaged invoices [5][10][11] - It clarifies that there is no specific character limit for the remarks section of invoices, but for electronic invoices, the total length cannot exceed 630 characters, with Chinese characters counting as three characters each [5][10] - In case of lost invoices, taxpayers must report the loss to the tax authority on the same day it is discovered and can do so through the electronic tax bureau [5][10][11] Group 2 - The article explains the types of VAT deduction certificates, including special VAT invoices and customs import VAT payment certificates, which allow taxpayers to deduct input VAT from their output VAT [10][11][13] - It details the calculation methods for input VAT based on the purchase price and deduction rates for agricultural products, emphasizing that certain invoices are not eligible for VAT deduction [13][14] - The article also outlines the requirements for deducting VAT on transportation services, including the need for valid invoices and specific calculation formulas for different types of transportation [17][20]

Core Insights - The Shandong provincial government is actively promoting the "work-for-relief" program to address rural employment issues and improve infrastructure [1] Group 1: Employment and Income - The program has successfully engaged 570,000 workers, resulting in a total labor remuneration of 9.47 billion yuan [1] - On average, each worker has seen an income increase of 17,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - A total of 10 billion yuan has been allocated for the program, funding 259 projects [1] - Key infrastructure improvements include the construction and renovation of 1,243 kilometers of roads, 319 kilometers of drainage ditches, and 838 kilometers of underground water supply and drainage pipelines, along with the construction of 100 bridges and culverts [1] Group 3: Rural Labor Market Dynamics - With approximately 35 million rural residents in Shandong, there is a significant demand for local employment due to rapid urbanization and agricultural modernization [1] - The program addresses the gap in rural infrastructure investment, which is often overlooked by industry and local funding [1]

Group 1: Technology Innovation and R&D Focus - The company emphasizes technology innovation as a core driver of development, establishing a technology innovation system centered on collaboration with research institutions and universities [2][3] - Future R&D investments will focus on two main themes: green technology and smart solutions, including the development of high-performance catalysts and hybrid treatment systems [3][4] Group 2: Sustainable Development Initiatives - The company adheres to environmental regulations and actively implements measures to reduce emissions, achieving a green electricity usage rate of 20.38% [3][4] - Social responsibility initiatives include providing employment opportunities for disadvantaged groups and supporting local economic development [3][4] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - Growth will be driven by expanding green and smart business themes, enhancing environmental technology innovation, and developing new energy businesses [5][6] - The company plans to strengthen its position in the light-duty diesel engine after-treatment market while also entering the electric and methanol-powered vessel sectors [5][6] Group 4: Risk Management Practices - The company has implemented innovative risk management practices, including foreign exchange risk assessment and the establishment of a robust internal control system [6][7] - A financial derivatives management system has been created to mitigate operational risks associated with business expansion [6][7] Group 5: Digital Transformation and Smart Manufacturing - The company is actively pursuing digital transformation by enhancing cloud computing and smart computing services, and optimizing supply chain management [7] - Collaboration with universities and research institutions is emphasized to support talent development for digital initiatives [7]